Tag Archives: Donna Edwards

Donna Edwards, Prince George's

Worst Reason Not to Run

In the Washington Post, Arelis Hernández reports that Rep. Donna Edwards is receiving encouragement from progressive Prince George’s activists to run for County Executive. However, the possible entry of Sen. C. Anthony Muse is giving her pause:

Longtime state Sen. C. Anthony Muse, who is close to Edwards and has his own deep base of political support, has also been considering a run — one factor that could dissuade Edwards from getting into the race.

Like Edwards, Muse is touting his outsider credentials:

Although Muse has been in Annapolis since 2007, he is known for his independence from the Democratic leadership there and would also likely try to claim the outsider label.

“Muse is the only one who has built his career on standing up to the establishment,” said Wayne Clarke, a veteran political operative who is close to the senator.

Except that Muse has stood up to the Democratic establishment by opposing it from the right, not the left. In contrast to State’s Attorney Alsobrooks, a leading candidate for County Executive, Muse was a leader in the effort to fight bail reform this year:

Alsobrooks was the only state’s attorney in Maryland to publicly oppose a bill sponsored by Muse to revive the state’s cash-bail program. The legislation was denounced by progressives who had worked for years to eliminate bail for poor defendants. It passed in the Senate but died in the House.

Muse also opposed marriage equality. According to political science estimates, Muse has been the seventh most conservative Democrat in the Maryland Senate. Unlike other more conservative Democrats, Muse does not represent a swing district. Other Prince George’s Democrats are among the most liberal in the Senate.

Muse’s financial past also raises eyebrows. He led two Prince George’s churches into bankruptcy. Muse’s own financial situation looks much happier. At the time of the second bankruptcy, he owned four properties–his own home, a vacation home, a rental property in Silver Spring, and a vacant lot in Fort Washington.

Todd Eberly sees an Edwards bid as a good way to wreck revenge on the Democratic establishment, which doesn’t support her:

[t]he former congresswoman might consider it “wonderful revenge” against party leaders who embraced then-Rep. Chris Van Hollen instead of her during the Senate primary.

But Sen. Chris Van Hollen has been a progressive leader. A big part of the reason Edwards lost was that there was just not enough daylight on issues between the two candidates.

For someone who is a progressive champion, the idea that  Anthony Muse could become county executive should be seen as a reason to run–not to hit the pause button.

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Democrats

Division at Unity Rally?

The Democratic Unity Rally may not have been the best way to demonstrate that Maryland Democrats are united moving from primary seats towards November.

On the good news front, Joseline Peña-Melnyk and Glenn Ivey both showed up and were gracious in their support of Democratic Fourth Congressional District Nominee Anthony Brown.

From the Eighth Congressional District, Kumar Barve and Joel Rubin came and lent support to Democratic Nominee Jamie Raskin. (UPDATE: Will Jawando was there too.) David Trone, Kathleen Matthews and Ana Sol Gutierrez were not there but I know that both Trone and Matthews have endorsed Raskin. No information on Gutierrez but I’d be surprised if she was not supportive of her colleague in the General Assembly.

The biggest rift remains from the U.S. Senate race. Rep. Donna Edwards was noticeably absent after her tough loss to colleague Chris Van Hollen. People in the Edwards camp believe she was badly treated by establishment Democrats and the Washington Post.

Frankly, I think these day-after the election events are a bit hard on the candidates. All are exhausted from lack of sleep and emotions are often understandably raw. I admire the people who didn’t win for showing up – it’s a good, gracious, and right thing to do.

But I can also understand those who just need a moment. Regardless, I look forward to moves in coming days by both Edwards and Van Hollen to help bring Democrats together.

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Primaries to Watch

The State of Play Before Primary Night I

The Presidential

Maryland was made for Hillary Clinton. She has done very well among African-American voters, who form 30% of the State’s population and will comprise a higher share of Democratic primary voters. The exit polls from 2008 indicated that women composed a staggering 62% of the primary vote, another good demographic for Clinton this year.

Finally, Bernie Sanders is running as an anti-establishment candidate in a State where many primary voters literally live inside the Beltway. While the Obama campaign swept many of these same areas in 2008, there is no remotely parallel wave for Bernie Sanders.

On the Republican side, I suspect Trump will have a good night. Class dynamics are unusually inverted in Maryland with many upper class Democrats and working class Republicans, who have provided the backbone for Trump’s support elsewhere.  Will Gov. Larry Hogan end up having to explain whether he’ll support Trump to the same Republican coalition that elected him?

The U.S. Senate

In Maryland, the presidential primary has ceded marquee status to the hard fought battle between Donna Edwards and Chris Van Hollen. It has become a battle between the uncompromising progressive and the person who gets progressive results.

EMILY’s List upped the octane in this race by dumping millions on the side of Edwards, providing the bulk of her campaign funding. No doubt this has been a unpleasant surprise for Van Hollen, who likely expected to dominate due to his fundraising prowess and has enjoyed strong support from women’s groups in the past.

Lately, however, these advertisements have become a mixed blessing, as bizarre attempts to characterize Van Hollen as opposed to gun control or campaign finance provoked a backlash from the White House and critics. See Jonathan Shurberg’s excellent summary.

Edwards has been hoping that her compelling personal story, ability to bring some diversity to the Senate, and strong progressive credentials will help her unite progressive white and African-American voters into a winning coalition.

However, after months of a tight race, polls indicate that Van Hollen is pulling ahead but the voters will have the ultimate say tonight. If he does become the Democratic senatorial nominee, commenters will likely point to several factors.

First, I don’t think Edwards has convinced voters that she is more progressive than Van Hollen in any meaningful way. Van Hollen has also managed to sell the argument that he is not just progressive but accomplishes progressive goals more compellingly than Hillary Clinton in the presidential race.

Next, Edwards has not obtained support from key African-American officials, like County Executives Rushern Baker and Isiah Leggett. The silences from Rep. Elijah Cummings’ office and the Congressional Black Caucus are also deafening. Edwards has nonetheless done an impressive job uniting black support across the State, particularly in light of these gaps in her support base.

As she goes into the final stretch, Edwards has hammered home her personal story and that she would be only the second black woman in the Senate. No one could seriously argue against the desirability for more diversity in the Senate.

But the dominance of this argument risks reducing her campaign to only identity politics. It needs leavening with other elements to sustain substantial cross-racial appeal even though the Black Lives Matter movement gives it a natural energy that could still make this a close race tonight.

I know too little about the Republican race to comment.

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Donna Edwards, US Senate

Congressional Black Caucus Doesn’t Heart Donna Edwards

edwards cbcIt’s Not All Smiles Behind the Scenes

It’s poorly kept secret that Rep. Donna Edwards does not have particularly good relationships with much of the Maryland political establishment either in the State or in the House. But the National Journal recently also revealed the depth of her bad relationships with many other members of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC):

Some current and former CBC members and aides, none of whom were willing to speak on the record, described Edwards as ambitious and aloof, saying she’s rubbed many in the caucus the wrong way. Others noted her public stances in opposition to other Maryland Democrats—an outlier in an otherwise collegial delegation.

One former staffer said that she essentially dropped out of the CBC for six months after a conflict with a colleague:

“I don’t think the CBC’s been a real priority for Donna. I don’t think she has particularly great relationships inside of the caucus,” said a former staffer for a CBC member. “I don’t think she’s going to win any popularity contests inside the CBC.”

In one particularly explosive episode, Edwards walked out of a CBC meeting last year after a dispute with Rep. Cedric Richmond. “He told her to get out, and she didn’t come back for six months,” said another former aide with CBC ties. “She didn’t come back until a month before she announced her candidacy for Senate. It struck a very disingenuous tone.”

Rep. Elijah Cummings could be the major beneficiary of Edwards’ problems with other members of the CBC:

Some CBC members were open in their desire to see Cummings enter the race. “I can only speak to the positive nature of the desire to get Elijah Cummings to run,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. “There is a lot of interest in his candidacy from CBC members. … I would be stunned if the majority of the members aren’t supporting him.”

That preference could say as much about Edwards’ standing within the CBC as it does about Cummings’.

Even if Rep. Donna Edwards is the only African-American candidate, many CBC members might still sit this one out. Or even worse for her, they might support Rep. Chris Van Hollen:

“Donna Edwards has always been an outsider to the caucus,” said the former staffer with CBC ties. “The CBC overwhelmingly doesn’t think that Donna Edwards has managed her relationships well or even developed one. … I have heard members say that they will go and campaign for Van Hollen before they will support Donna Edwards.”

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US Senate

Elijah for Senate?

Elijah-Cummings-AP-Images-hearing

A US Senate race between Rep. Elijah Cummings and Rep. Chris Van Hollen would be an epic and historic race to behold, and might  reduce Donna Edwards–who has the least seniority of the three and is the weakest fundraiser by far–to the role of spoiler.

A Regional Candidate
Congressmen Cummings could be expected to carry the City of Baltimore by a bone crushingly large margin. A similar margin could be expected in suburban Howard County, where he is popular. Elijah would also likely win Baltimore County–he already represents a large swath of it.

Elijah might also challenge hometown heroine Donna Edwards in Prince George’s County. Many local leaders are not close with Rep. Edwards and might lend their support to Rep. Cummings. Regardless, if Reps. Van Hollen and Edwards split the suburban DC vote, Rep. Cummings could emerge as victor based on unified support in the 410 area code.

Overlap
No question about it, if Elijah enters the race, he causes serious problems for Donna Edwards. She would no longer be able to hope to claim a base of African American voters in Baltimore City and would face serious competition in her own home base of Prince George’s.

At the outset, a split black field would seem to help CVH. But natural areas of expansions outside of Montgomery for Chris from Ellicott City to Towson would be cut off. On the whole, I’d see Elijah’s entry into the race as a win for Chris, but I think he’s a lot more likely to lose to Elijah than Donna.

 

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US Senate

EMILY’s List in for Edwards

EMILYsList-1EMILY’s List announced its support in the upcoming senatorial race for Rep. Donna Edwards. Great news for her campaign as she’ll need all the money that they can raise and more. Beyond the fundraising, it also gives her the imprimatur of a major endorser. An important day for the Edwards campaign.

Bad news for other women who had been musing about the race, specifically Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake and former Del. Heather Mizeur. Rawlings-Blake already has a challenging day job and it is unclear how serious she is about running for Senate.

This is now the second time that EMILY’s List has taken a pass on Mizeur who has been promoting her candidacy with donors as well as through her expansive social network. Of course, Mizeur could turn to an open congressional race where she could be a very competitive candidate–and might gain EMILY’s List support.

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Congress

Glenn Ivey is in for the Fourth

Interview with WUSA

 Here is Glenn Ivey’s announcement from his Facebook page. Ivey was a popular State’s Attorney in Prince George’s. His wife, former Del. Jolene Ivey, was a candidate for lieutenant governor last year. Edwards is unlikely to endorse Glenn Ivey, as he almost challenged her a few years ago.

Friends,

After careful consideration, I have decided to run for Maryland’s Fourth Congressional District, which stretches from the shores of the Potomac River in Prince George’s County to Stoney Creek in Anne Arundel County.

For seven years, Congresswoman Donna Edwards has served this district with distinction. She’s been a real fighter for working families, I applaud her service, and I wish her well in her race for U.S. Senate.

I had the honor of serving Marylanders in the past, when the people of Prince George’s County elected me State’s Attorney in 2002 and again in 2006. Working with law enforcement, we fought hard for safe streets, safe schools and safe neighborhoods. We locked up killers, sex offenders and fraudsters. Crime dropped and those declines continue today.

We partnered with the faith community, schools and business leaders to launch programs – using no tax dollars – to fight domestic violence, to provide volunteer tutors to struggling second graders, and to create training and employment opportunities for ex-offenders.

And while I left public office in 2010, I never left public service. I volunteered to chair the Maryland office that provides free legal services to low-income clients, and I remain active in the community.

Now, the time has come for me to return to public life, but I need your support. Together, we can champion the struggle to improve our schools, build a new economy that provides good jobs that pay a living wage, continue to reduce crime, and address the mortgage foreclosure disaster that continues to threaten hardworking people.

My work throughout my career has prepared me for this moment. Over 25 years ago, I got started in public service as a senior aide to Congressman John Conyers, Jr., the Dean of the House of Representatives and a founding member of the Congressional Black Caucus. I later worked as a federal prosecutor in Washington, D.C. under Eric Holder, then returned to Capitol Hill to work for Maryland’s legendary Senator Paul Sarbanes and Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle. In short, I learned from some of the best. They helped to shape my understanding of how Washington could truly improve the lives of all Americans.

Maryland is my home – I’ve lived in Prince George’s County for over 27 years. I’m raising my family here and I’ve always taught my kids that the greatness of this state is its people – hardworking people from all walks of life who never give up and who come together to support one another.

That’s what you deserve out of your Congress.

The people of this district deserve a Congress that works for them – that spends less time fighting with each other and more time fighting for you. With your help, I would like to get back in the ring and continue the fight to help people improve their lives and achieve their dreams.

I ask you to help me build a grassroots campaign that reaches every corner of the Fourth Congressional District, in Prince George’s County and Anne Arundel County. I will be making a more formal campaign announcement in the future; in the meantime, I look forward to traveling the district, listening to you and sharing my ideas on ways to spread opportunity to all corners of Maryland.

Thank you,
Glenn Ivey

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Montgomery County, US Senate

John Delaney for Senate?

delaney

John Delaney is a two-term U.S. representative who founded two publicly traded companies focused on financial services. He may well be the only candidate able to point to significant private sector experience. While he not always the most charismatic, he’s very, very smart and is well-versed in economic policy in a way that is rare for an elected official.

Money, Money, Money

John Delaney is worth a cool nine figures and over the last few years has spent around $5 million dollars of his own funds on his U.S. House bids. Always nice to be able to drop more than most will see in a lifetime like it’s buying a nice meal out.

In contrast, Chris Van Hollen and all other candidates will need to spend months locked in windowless rooms begging lobbyists and national donors for $2,600 checks in hopes of funding broadcast media buys in the extremely expensive DC and Baltimore Markets.

For the record, DC Broadcast at saturation costs $450,000 per week. Delaney can put $10 million, $15 million, perhaps even $20 million dollars in his campaign account in five minutes,  freeing up his time for extensive retail politicking in far flung corners of the state.

Moreover, his money will buy a vast army of top tier hired guns and mercenary political consultants. As his campaign against Sen. Rob Garagiola showed in 2012, John Delaney knows how to hire good people and run an effective campaign.

John Delaney will bombard a microtargeted universe of likely Democratic Primary voters with glossy mailers and online advertisements. His (paid) canvassers will be at their doors daily. And, months before anyone else can afford to do so, his TV ads will flood living rooms from Silver Spring to Severna Park.

And frankly, that stuff works.

But Money Can’t Buy You Love

Chris Van Hollen will likely retain the loyalties of the northwestern Montgomery County residents he represented prior to redistricting (and are now) in the Sixth District–a real problem for Delaney as he  needs those voters.

Moreover, John Delaney doesn’t have CVH’s massive base of volunteers and true believers. Donna Edwards also has the potential to attract a lot of ground support. These canvassers tend to be more effective than those in it for the (small) paycheck because they actually believe in the candidate.

Delaney’s opponents may argue that he made a fortune as a predatory lender. Moreover, ss dozens of other self funders have taught us, all the money in the world can’t buy enough advertising to make voters change their minds if they decide they don’t like you or just prefer someone else even if you’re a good candidate.

Labor

Labor Unions across the board united to oppose John Delaney’s first congressional bid. He’s since returned the animosity through numerous votes on infrastructure issues, which has angered the more traditionalist factions like the building trades and the AFL-CIO. He has also cast pro-Wall Street votes on the Financial Services committee, which has angered the more movement progressive type unions like SEIU. It can be expected that they will put whatever clout they have into denying him a promotion to the Senate.

Overlap and Niche

As a white Montgomery County congressmen, Delaney and CVH share the most base overlap.

Delaney will also be the most centrist candidate. He has repeatedly touted his moderate proposals and ability to work with Republicans–an approach that looks better in general than primary elections. To the extent a centrist bloc exists in a statewide Maryland Democratic Primary, he largely has that lane to himself. This may give Delaney room for expansion in the Baltimore suburbs, the Eastern Shore, and Southern Maryland.

Delaney also shares several political advisors such as pollster Fred Yang, media firm SKDKnickerbocker and Chief of Staff Justin Schall who work with other potential candidates. They will have to pick a side when their clients challenge each other for higher office.

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Congress

If Donna Edwards Moves Up or On. . .

No one is saying Donna Edwards is going anywhere after working hard to get a firm hold on the Fourth Congressional District but I thought it would be fun to speculate if she left her seat open, say, during a bid for higher office. We’d have an incredibly interesting Democratic Primary on our hands. I believe that the following would likely be tempted to  run:

  • The Hon. Rev. Bishop Senator C. Anthony Muse (District 26).
  • Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker III.
  • Either former Delegate and Lt. Gov. Candidate Jolene Ivey (District 47) or Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey. Since they’re married, they’d have to flip a coin.
  • Anne Arundel County Councilman Jamie Benoit.
  • State Senator Victor Ramirez (District 47).

Each of these candidates bring there own strengths, bases and weaknesses to the race.

Senator Muse has a rock solid base in southern Prince George’s County and would be an incredibly dynamic candidate with an inspiring story of homeless to state house. I think he could raise over $300,000 but I’m not sure how much more. However, that doesn’t go far on a congressional race in the DC media market. And his quixotic challenge to Sen. Ben Cardin went nowhere.

County Executive Baker is very popular in Prince George’s County, which makes up two-thirds of MD-04. He would start out the heavy favorite. It would be interesting to see how he departs from his usual donor base of developers who care much less about the next freshman member of Congress than County Executive. However, I think he could raise if not $2 million dollars, close to it.

Jolene Ivey was an incredibly dynamic and impressive running mate for Doug Gansler. She would be an immensely strong candidate and could raise around $1 million. She has a solid base in the 47th Legislative District, which would be completely fractured if both she and the Senator from that district, Victor Ramirez, ran.

Glenn Ivey was a popular prosecutor and an immense political talent. He also has a thick political rolodex stretching from Capitol Hill to Prince George’s to Annapolis and Baltimore. I think he could raise an even million. His short-lived congressional bid in 2012 may hurt him and his wife’s profile is much higher. Likely neither will have Anthony Brown’s support.

Jamie Benoit is a popular County Councilman, a veteran and the Chief Executive of a rapidly growing business. He was heavily recruited by state Democrats to run for Anne Arundel County Executive but bowed out (and retired from the Council) to focus on his business. He also toyed with the idea of running for Congress in MD-04 in 2012. If he could galvanize his base in Anne Arundel County and appeal to white voters in Northern Prince George’s, he might have an outside  shot. But without self funding he wouldn’t have the resources to get his message out–perhaps a quarter million dollars. If he self funded, he could perhaps get that number up to 500k-750k.

Victor Ramirez is a popular and charismatic State Legislator. He is also the undisputed voice of Prince George’s County’s (and perhaps Maryland’s) rapidly exploding Latino population. If he could mobilize that constituency, he’d have an outside shot at winning a plurality victory in this crowded primary.

Rating: Lean Baker

And who knows who else might run? Maybe an Al Wynn comeback bid? Did I miss anyone? Did I miss you? Email johnga.ems@Gmail.com with tips.

 

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