Floreen Certified for Ballot

By Adam Pagnucco.

County Executive candidate Nancy Floreen has announced that she has been certified for the ballot by the county’s Board of Elections.  Following is her press release.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

August 22, 2018

Contact: Sarah Van DeWeert

Sarah@NancyFloreen.com

MONTGOMERY COUNTY BOARD OF ELECTIONS CERTIFIES FLOREEN’S CANDIDACY

Board Validates Over 13,000 Signatures in Councilwoman’s Bid to Get on the November Ballot

GARRETT PARK, MD – Today, the Montgomery County Board of Elections confirmed that Nancy Floreen exceeded the threshold of 7,255 valid signatures needed for her name to appear on the November 6 ballot as an unaffiliated candidate. The Board validated more than 13,000 of the signatures that were submitted earlier this month. With the help of canvassers and volunteers, Floreen collected over 20,000 signatures in just 25 days in her bid to be listed on the ballot.

“I want to thank the Board of Elections for being thorough and patient throughout the process. This petition drive was historic. The demand for a more inclusive choice was fueled by more than 20,000 people in less than a month. We’ve unleashed widespread community support. There’s an obvious and clear desire for balanced, non-partisan leadership for the County,” Floreen said.

The County Board of Elections July 2018 statistical report showed 652,346 registered voters, 143,420 of which are unaffiliated. With nearly 130,000 votes cast, Marc Elrich won the Democratic primary for County Executive by 77 votes over second-place finisher David Blair.

After receiving the news from the Board, and with 75 days until the general election, Floreen turned to focus on the campaign saying, “This is about creating a better future for all of us. We need to optimize people, process, and technology for a better Montgomery County moving forward. As County Executive, I plan to grow jobs and skills-based training, provide regional solutions to address transit challenges, greater access to mental health services, and significantly increase school construction.”

Floreen officially launches her campaign today and will open a campaign office in Rockville. For more information, contact Sarah Van De Weert or visit www.nancyfloreen.com.

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LIUNA’s Endorsement of Hogan is a Big Deal

By Adam Pagnucco.

In politics, it’s an iron law that unions always endorse Democrats, yeah?  Labor is known for supplying money and manpower to the Democratic Party in an alliance dating back decades.  But the truth is more complicated owing to the complexities within the labor movement little appreciated by outsiders.  And that truth just erupted in the Governor’s race in a big way.

Recently, the Laborers International Union of North America (LIUNA), one of the largest unions in the country, endorsed Republican Governor Larry Hogan.  As the Washington Post noted, LIUNA had supported Hogan’s 2014 opponent, then-Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown, and gave him a last-minute $500,000 loan.  Why is this such a big deal?

First, LIUNA is in part a building trades union.  A big chunk of its half a million members work in the construction industry alongside unions representing carpenters, electricians, operating engineers, iron workers, bricklayers and more.  Accordingly, it has an interest in landing construction projects for its members.  The Post reported, “A spokesman for the union said it is backing Hogan because of his emphasis on building roads and bridges – particularly his $9 billion proposal to add toll plans to Maryland’s most congested highways.”  LIUNA Mid-Atlantic Vice President Dennis Martire added, “Transportation infrastructure continues to take a back seat for many elected officials… It’s refreshing to see Governor Hogan’s proposed plans for Maryland’s roads and highways.”  Local organizations affiliated with two other building trades unions – the Roofers and the Plumbers and Pipefitters – have also endorsed Hogan.  Don’t be surprised if more trades climb on board.

Second, LIUNA is one of the most diverse unions in the country.  It represents large numbers of African Americans and Latinos who are not as socially conservative as the other trades and public safety unions that are supporting Hogan.  Many LIUNA members are government employees, and in Montgomery County, the union represents trash haulers who are employed by county contractors.  The union’s legislative agenda goes beyond traditional building trades issues.  In endorsing Rich Madaleno in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, the union cited his work on earned sick leave and the $15 minimum wage.  LIUNA also endorsed Marc Elrich for County Executive.  That’s right, folks – here is an organization that supported Madaleno, Elrich, Brown AND Hogan.

Third, LIUNA spends massive amounts on Maryland political campaigns.  From 2005 through June 2018, the union contributed $2.2 million to Maryland candidates, PACs and independent expenditure committees.  Its biggest expenditures were $678,065 to the Clean Slate Baltimore PAC opposing 2016 Mayor candidate (and former Mayor) Sheila Dixon; $528,500 to Anthony Brown’s 2014 campaign for Governor; $150,000 to the One State One Future Super PAC for Brown; $78,250 to the state Democratic Party; and $35,000 to the Progressive Maryland PAC that ran negative TV ads against County Executive candidate David Blair.  There is no indication that the union will spend any money promoting Hogan, who – Lord knows! – doesn’t need more money.  But LIUNA’s resources are now off the table for Democratic nominee Ben Jealous, who could have used them.

Speaking of Progressive Maryland, LIUNA is one of their dues-paying affiliates.  That didn’t stop Progressive Maryland from criticizing LIUNA’s endorsement of Hogan on Facebook, an almost unheard-of act by an umbrella group against a member.  That’s how much LIUNA’s choice stings the left.

Finally, consider this.  One of the most remarkable findings in the recent Gonzales poll showing a sixteen-point lead for Hogan over Jealous was its estimates for Baltimore City and Prince George’s County.  Those are two jurisdictions Jealous needs to win by big margins, but the poll shows him leading Hogan by six points in the City and thirteen points in Prince George’s.  We are skeptical that those margins will hold.  But to the extent that middle-class African Americans are a key to the election, it’s hard to think of many labor unions that represent more middle-class African Americans than LIUNA.

There’s a long way to go to Election Day and Jealous still has some large and powerful groups behind him.  But none of this is good for the Democrats.  Hogan must be smiling all the way to the hiring hall and beyond.

Disclosure: The author worked for LIUNA in 1994 and 1995 and spent sixteen years working for building trades unions.

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National Insider Ben Jealous on the Outside in Maryland

Ben Jealous is the latest in a long line of national political figures with little to no experience running for office who try to parachute into Maryland politics and find the landing rocky.

Republicans often tried this strategy in the past due to the dearth of local talent. Barbara Mikulski easily dispatched Linda Chavez to win her Senate seat in 1986. Paul Sarbanes defeated Alan Keyes with little trouble in 1988 and Mikulski trounced him in 1992.

More recently, Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend lost to Bob Ehrlich. While Townsend had developed Maryland roots, her strong links to the Kennedys undermined perception of her as a local. Moreover, her only successful previous run for office was as lieutenant governor on Parris Glendenning’s ticket.

Though many Marylanders hail from elsewhere, especially in the DC area, Maryland identity remains strong. Candidates perceived as having stronger national than local ties don’t do well.

The relatively unknown Jealous smartly likes to tout his Maryland roots. His bio page on the campaign web page states he “has lived in Maryland throughout his career as a civil rights leader and businessman.”

Unfortunately, it’s a four Pinocchio. Jealous only began voting here in 2012. He was touted as a candidate for mayor of Oakland (California not Maryland) in 2008, and voted in California in 2006 and 2008. Even when Jealous headed the Baltimore-based NAACP, he lived in DC, where he voted from 2000 to 2004, and in 2010 to 2011.

His running mate, Susie Turnbull, has been active in Maryland much longer, including as head of the Maryland Democratic Party. Like Jealous, she has not run previously for local office. Instead, she was Vice Chair of the DNC and worked for Members of Congress.

It didn’t help when Jealous began his campaign by talking about removing Larry Hogan from “the White House” and Turnbull spoke about when she moved to “Washington” and meant Maryland.

Jealous’s primary campaign had far more backing from national than local Democratic officials. He touted endorsements from Sens. Bernie Sanders, Corey Booker and Kamala Harris, LA Mayor Eric Garcetti, and New York Mayor Bill DeBlasio.

Meanwhile, he did not tout a single endorsement by a local official during the primary on the endorsement page on his web site. Jealous’s primary campaign benefited heavily from an independent expenditure campaign by one-percenter Californians.

As the Democratic nominee, Jealous now has the backing of most elected Democrats, though many expect him to lose and are not heavily invested in his campaign. Jealous’s tendency during the primary campaign to make Sanders-like attacks on the Annapolis Democratic establishment yet simultaneously take credit for so much of their work, understandably grated and hasn’t been forgotten. Comptroller Peter Franchot and Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggett have not endorsed him.

Jealous has felt lots of love from the national political establishment and from ultra-progressives. Not so much from Maryland officials or Maryland general elections voters.

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Floreen Claims More Than 20,000 Signatures

By Adam Pagnucco.

Council Member Nancy Floreen is claiming that she has obtained 20,343 signatures in her effort to get on the ballot as an independent candidate for Executive.  That count far exceeds the 7,255 signatures required for ballot access but the county’s Board of Elections will now go through its verification process.  That could take a little while.  On August 8, 2016, Robin Ficker submitted roughly 18,000 signatures to get his term limits charter amendment on the ballot.  On August 23, the Board of Elections verified 12,573 of them, enough to qualify.  So this is not over yet.

We reprint Floreen’s statement below.

*****

MONTGOMERY COUNTY FOR NANCY FLOREEN

www.NancyFloreen.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

August 6, 2018

Contact: Sarah Van De Weert

Sarah@NancyFloreen.com

FLOREEN SUBMITS 20,343 SIGNATURES TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY BOARD OF ELECTIONS

Councilmember Will Offer Voters a Unifying Choice for County Executive in November

GARRETT PARK, MD – Montgomery County At-Large Councilmember Nancy Floreen submitted signatures to the Montgomery County Board of Elections today to appear on the ballot in November as a County Executive candidate. She issued the following statement:

“I am pleased to announce that, in the past 25 days, we have collected 20,343 petition signatures and are submitting them today to the Montgomery County Board of Elections for verification. This should give us a comfortable margin above the 7,255 verified signatures we need to qualify to appear on the ballot as an unaffiliated candidate for County Executive in this year’s general election on November 6th.

Hundreds of people from all over the County volunteered to help in this effort, and I am deeply humbled by the outpouring of support we’ve seen. Despite the incredible amount of rain we’ve had over the past couple of weeks, we still prevailed with the help of our dedicated volunteers and canvassers. I really can’t thank them enough. It shows there’s a real desire among voters, one that cuts across all party lines, for a unifying choice for County Executive this fall. People are tired of the extreme partisanship and polarization we see nationally. The last thing we want is more of that at the local level. Voters are looking for a broader, more inclusive vision for this County’s future, and for leaders who can unify us around practical solutions, so everyone can feel like they are being represented. That’s the kind of leadership I can offer.

We will now await the Board’s determination as to whether or not we have met the requirements to qualify as a candidate, and we will have a lot more to say then. Thank you again.”

About Nancy

Nancy Floreen is completing her fourth term as an At-large Member of the Montgomery Council, where she has served as Council President, chaired the Council’s Transportation and Environment Committee, and helped lead successful County initiatives on economic revitalization, school funding, environmental protection, transportation, affordable housing and smart-growth re-development, among other things. Previously, she served two terms as a member of the Montgomery County Planning Board, in the Civil Division of the US Department of Justice, worked for US Senator Barbara Mikulski, and is a former Mayor of Garrett Park.

Nancy has been married to writer/attorney David O. Stewart for 44 years and has three children and two grandchildren. Nancy is a breast cancer survivor and an avid bicyclist having biked through nearly every county in Maryland. Her full bio can be found here.

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Authorized by: Montgomery County for Nancy Floreen | Joyce Fuhrmann, Treasurer

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Floreen to Deliver Petition Signatures Today

By Adam Pagnucco.

Council Member Nancy Floreen, who is trying to get on the ballot as an independent candidate for County Executive, will be delivering her petition signatures to the Montgomery County Board of Elections today.  Following is her press release.

*****

MONTGOMERY COUNTY FOR NANCY FLOREEN

www.NancyFloreen.com

MEDIA ADVISORY

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

August 6, 2018

Contact: Sarah Van De Weert

Sarah@NancyFloreen.com

Nancy Floreen to Deliver Signatures to Montgomery County Board of Elections

GARRETT PARK, MD – Later today, Montgomery County Councilmember Nancy Floreen will deliver signatures collected over the past 27 days to the Montgomery County Board of Elections, as required by law, to be listed on the ballot as an unaffiliated candidate for County Executive in this year’s general election.

Who: Nancy Floreen, At-large Member of the Montgomery County Council

When: Monday, August 6, 2018 at 1:00pm (for approximately 30 minutes)

Where: Montgomery County Board of Elections

18753 N. Frederick Ave, Suite 210, Gaithersburg, MD 20879

Why: At least 7,255 valid signatures must be submitted to the Board of Elections by 5:00pm on Monday, August 6, in order to quality to be listed on the ballot as an unaffiliated candidate. Nancy Floreen would like to run for the office of County Executive to offer voters a unifying choice this November.

For more information visit www.NancyFloreen.com

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MoCo Gubernatorial Primary: Precinct Results

By Adam Pagnucco.

Former NAACP President Ben Jealous won every county in Maryland in the Democratic primary except Prince George’s and Calvert, where Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker outpolled him.  In MoCo, Jealous received 35.6% of the vote and Baker received 32.5%, a difference of 3.1 points.  The precinct results we show below only include election day votes, which accounted for 68% of the votes cast for gubernatorial candidates in MoCo.  Still, they show the patterns of voting for Jealous and Baker as well as for Senator Rich Madaleno (D-18), who finished third in the county, and former Michelle Obama aide Krish Vignarajah, who finished fourth.

Overall, MoCo saw a two-man race between Jealous and Baker.  Madaleno was a distant third; he finished first in Kensington but no higher than third anywhere else, including in District 18.  Vignarajah was fourth overall but finished third in Council District 2, State Legislative District 39 and several areas mostly located in Upcounty.  Generally speaking, Baker did well in white, wealthy areas in the southwest while Jealous won almost everywhere else.

Jealous’s Five Best Local Areas

  • Brookeville: 48% (first)
  • Takoma Park and Damascus: 46% (first)
  • Montgomery Village: 43% (first)
  • Silver Spring East County: 43% (first)

Jealous’s Five Worst Local Areas

  • Bethesda: 31% (second)
  • Leisure World: 31% (second)
  • Potomac: 28% (second)
  • Kensington: 28% (third)
  • Chevy Chase: 25% (second)

Baker’s Five Best Local Areas

  • Cabin John: 41% (first)
  • Bethesda: 39% (first)
  • Leisure World: 39% (first)
  • Potomac: 39% (first)
  • Chevy Chase: 38% (first)

Baker’s Five Worst Local Areas

  • Glenmont/Norbeck: 25% (second)
  • Clarksburg: 24% (second)
  • Poolesville: 24% (second)
  • Brookeville: 24% (second)
  • Damascus: 21% (second)

The racial differences in voting between Jealous and Baker can be easily seen in the demographic splits.  Baker won majority white precincts and the size of his advantage grew as the white percentage rose.  Jealous won “majority minority” precincts by 14 points.

One more factor to consider is the Washington Post, which endorsed Baker and attacked Jealous.  In a forthcoming blog post, we will compare the performance of Council At-Large candidates endorsed by the Post to those who were endorsed by MCEA.  The Post candidates’ performance was strongest compared to those supported by MCEA in Chevy Chase, Cabin John, Bethesda and Potomac – many of the same places where Baker performed best and Jealous performed worst.

We show the full splits below.

  

While Jealous won MoCo, he lost in the wealthy areas that tend to have disproportionate numbers of campaign contributors.  That’s an important fact to note since Jealous is trailing Governor Larry Hogan badly in fundraising from MoCo.  Jealous should tap into any MoCo surrogates he has, especially in Chevy Chase, Bethesda, Potomac and Kensington, to help him fortify those areas and raise money from them.  If they don’t come around to the Democratic nominee, Jealous’s path to Government House will be that much harder.

Next, we will begin looking at the County Executive candidates.

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MoCo Democratic Turnout: Precinct Results

By Adam Pagnucco.

Data Christmas has arrived as precinct results from the primary are now available from the State Board of Elections! We have been busy crunching them and will now begin rolling them out for our beloved readers.  Let’s start today with turnout among MoCo Democrats.

Overall, MoCo Democratic turnout was 35% in the 2018 primary, higher than the state average of 29%.  MoCo ranked second to Talbot County among the state’s 24 jurisdictions on this measure.  MoCo’s rate of 35% was higher than it was in 2010 and 2014 (26% each time) but lower than 2006 (40%) and 2002 (45%).  Still, being second in the state after being in the middle of the pack in the last two gubernatorial cycles is a good thing for MoCo.

Looking inside the county, there were vast differences in Democratic turnout between local areas.  Here are the five highest rates and the five lowest.

Highest Democratic Turnout Rates

Leisure World: 52%

Chevy Chase: 49%

Cabin John: 47%

Kensington: 45%

Takoma Park and Bethesda: 44%

Lowest Democratic Turnout Rates

Burtonsville and Damascus: 28%

Montgomery Village: 27%

Clarksburg: 27%

Germantown: 26%

Glenmont/Norbeck: 24%

These differences were reflected in state legislative and council districts.  Council District 1 led with 45% while Council District 2 was last with 28%.  State Legislative District 16 led with 44% while District 39 was last with 26%.  In the Democratic Crescent – the areas inside and near the Beltway that sent Jamie Raskin to Congress – turnout was 44%.  That compares to turnout rates of 29% in Upcounty and 34% in the rest of the county.

In precincts where support for term limits in 2016 was less than 65%, turnout was 42%.  In precincts where support for term limits was more than 80%, turnout was 31%.  This suggests confirmation of a post we wrote before the primary: Democrats who voted for term limits were less likely to vote in the primary.

Another factor that stands out is the differences among precincts based on their racial composition.  We have been matching precincts to racial data from Census tracts since the 2006 cycle.  (We have redone this numerous times since then to accommodate the 2010 Census and shifting precinct borders.)  Among majority white precincts, Democratic turnout was 41% and turnout rose as white percentage increased.  Among “majority minority” precincts, Democratic turnout was 29% and that rate fell as the white percentage declined.  Precincts that were more than 33% Latino had a combined turnout rate of 26%.

We show the full splits below.

These patterns of higher turnout in white areas, wealthy areas and the Democratic Crescent and lower turnout in Upcounty, areas with lots of people of color and lower income areas had a powerful impact on the races for Governor, County Executive and County Council At-Large.  We will begin looking at those races soon.

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Who is Paying for RGA’s Campaign?

By Adam Pagnucco.

As we have previously written, the Republican Governors Association (RGA) has launched a TV and mail campaign promoting Governor Larry Hogan and attacking Democratic nominee Ben Jealous.  RGA is a 527, not a PAC or a federal political committee regulated by the FEC, and since the Citizens United decision it is free to advocate for and against candidates.  However, in Maryland, it is registered as an Independent Expenditure (IE) Committee and must disclose its contributions and expenditures.

Below are the 21 entities (17 organizations and 4 individuals) who have contributed to RGA’s Maryland IE account.  They have combined to contribute $1,037,500 to the campaign.  All but one (Gary Mangum of Bell Nursery) are from out of state.

The four healthcare and pharmaceutical companies contributed $300,000, which is interesting considering that Jealous is known for advocating single payer healthcare.  Indeed, one of RGA’s TV ads slams Jealous’s healthcare proposal over its alleged cost.  The $100,000 contribution by student testing firm Data Recognition Corporation is also noteworthy.  Is it seeking contracts in Maryland?

One more item from the IE filings stands out: the vendors collecting its money are all based out of state.  Are there no consultants based in Maryland who are capable of doing political work?  So far, the IE has spent $1,648,663 on TV, online ads, mail and consulting fees.  Compare that to the $2.9 million raised by Jealous’s campaign for the entire cycle.

RGA’s last IE report was dated July 11.  If the campaign continues, there will be more reports.  Who knows how much they will spend by the time they are done?

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RGA Hits Jealous on Taxes

By Adam Pagnucco.

The Republican Governors Association (RGA) is up with a second TV ad, this one claiming that Democratic nominee Ben Jealous would raise taxes and “would blow a Chesapeake Bay-sized hole in the state budget.”  That latter quote comes from a Washington Post editorial opposing Jealous’s proposal to offer free tuition for Marylanders at public colleges.  RGA’s campaign, which also includes mail to Democrats, may be early but the risk is that it will define Jealous before Jealous gets to define himself.

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David Blair’s Concession Email

Dear Friends –

Yesterday afternoon the Board of Elections concluded their recount of the Primary Election.  The outcome did not change.  While we ran a dynamic campaign that pushed the status quo . . . at the end we came up 77 votes short.

Last night I congratulated Marc Elrich on winning the Democratic nomination for County Executive.  I encouraged Marc and offered my support to enhance critical programs such as early childhood education, affordable housing and access to healthcare, as well as pursuing initiatives to foster business growth. Our message clearly resonated with residents all across the County and I will remain engaged to ensure our voices are heard.

I also want to thank you again for your support and commitment over the past year. Together we ran an incredible campaign and we generated many innovative ideas to make Montgomery County an even better place to call home. I am proud and humbled by all the support I received and truly grateful for the many new friendships made along the way.

While no doubt we are disappointed in the outcome of the election, I suggest to you that this is not the end, but rather just the beginning of our journey together.  Looking forward, let’s continue to drive the conversation on the issues that matter most and support Democratic nominees across the state.

Again, a heartfelt thank you.

Best wishes,

David Blair

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