Democratic Presidential Primary

The breadth of Hillary Clinton‘s victory is hard to overstate. She won all but three very Republican counties. She lost tiny Garrett by 119 votes (6%), Allegheny by 158 (3%), and Carroll by 170 (1%). The other jurisdictions went Clinton, including Montgomery (67%), Prince George’s (74%), and Baltimore City (65%).

Sanders won millennials but there just weren’t that many of them–over 45 voters were two-thirds of the electorate and 74% voted for Clinton. Women composed a staggering 61% of Democratic primary voters and 68% voted Clinton. African-American voters were 46% of primary voters and went 75% for Clinton, though she also carried white voters by 52-42.

Democratic Senatorial Primary

After a fiercely fought race, Chris Van Hollen ended up winning comfortably by 53-39 over Donna Edwards. Here is the county-by-county breakdown of Van Hollen’s share of the vote and his margin over Edwards:

Edwards won only three jurisdictions: Baltimore City, Charles and Prince George’s. Even in her home base of heavily African-American Prince George’s, Van Hollen managed to win close to one-third of the vote.

One source reports that this is because Van Hollen had volunteers all over Prince George’s while Edwards was less well organized. Montgomery delivered well for its favorite son, delivering him 76% of the vote. For more on why I think the Edwards campaign fell short, see yesterday’s pre-game post.

Eighth District Democratic Primary

After sweating out the returns, Jamie Raskin emerged the winner despite spending less than Trone or Matthews. There still remain quite a few absentee ballots outstanding but Raskin’s lead is too large for Trone to make up despite his strong program to secure absentee votes.

Raskin ran and won as a progressive. Indeed, he won because he was a strong and passionate liberal advocate, attracting strong grassroots support for his campaign that stood him in good stead against candidates with far better funding.

David Trone spent over $12 million and came in second, edging out Kathleen Matthews. While many might comfort themselves with a strong finish, Trone strikes me as a guy who plays to win and didn’t spend all that money to be the runner up. At least he knows where to go to drown his sorrows.

The Night’s Biggest Loser

EMILY’s List poured millions and millions of dollars to elect Donna Edwards to the Senate and Kathleen Matthews to the House. Despite both being strong candidates, neither won.

Early results show: Pugh 45%, Dixon 33%, Embry 8%, Warnock 7%

US Senate: Van Hollen 56%, Edwards 39%
CD 8: Raskin 37%, Trone 25%, Matthews 24%
CD 4: Brown 39%, Ivey 38%, Peña-Melnyk 19%
CD 1: Ireton 51%, Werner 49%

Donna Edwards managed to convince a court to extend voting by one hour in four Baltimore locations due to issues, so no votes until 9pm. Can we all wait five more minutes?

The canyon that is the generation gap among Democratic primary voters continues in Maryland:

17-29 year olds (12%): 72% Sanders, 26% Clinton
30-44 year olds (24%): 55% Clinton, 44% Sanders
45-64 year olds (42%): 74% Clinton, 24% Sanders
65 and older (23%): 74% Clinton, 21% Sanders

Sanders devotees will point to his incredibly strong numbers among millennials, though they are lower than the stunning 85% and 90% that he managed to post elsewhere.

But there just aren’t that many of them. Millennials composed just 12% of the Democratic primary electorate. Older voters participate far more. People 45 and older formed 65% of Democratic primary. Clinton advocates will argue that this undercuts Sanders’s argument that he brings in tons of young voters.

Oh, and Hillary just won Pennsylvania.

Inspiration

For all of the talk of Sanders being the heart candidate and Clinton the head candidate, 53% of Marylanders said that Clinton “is more inspiring about the country’s future.” She also won 96% of the people who thought her more inspiring but Sanders won only 78% of those who picked him.

Party ID on Democratic Side

Sanders has usually swept independents by a huge amount. In Maryland, Democratic primary voters who view themselves as independent voted only 54-39 for Sanders. In contrast, Clinton won the 81% of Democratic primary voters who saw themselves as Democrats by 67-32.

Party ID on Republican Side

Trump too usually does better among independents. Not in Maryland. Trump won 55% of Republican primary voters who identify as Republicans compared to just 44% of those who see themselves as independents.

White Evangelicals

Among the 36% of Republican primary voters who are white evangelical or born-again Christians, Trump won with 52% compared to just 24% for supposed evangelical heart throb Ted Cruz. Even Kasich managed 22% of white evangelicals. Trump did only one point better among other Republican voters. Stick a fork in Cruz, he’s done?

According to the exit polls:

East (21%): 65% Clinton, 32% Sanders
Baltimore Area (28%): 66% Clinton, 31% Sanders
DC Suburbs (35%): 66% Clinton, 33% Sanders
Central/West (15%): 53% Clinton, 45% Sanders

If these margins hold, Clinton should win most congressional district outside of the Sixth (i.e. Western Maryland) by roughly 2-1 and pick up a good number of delegates. Where the races are at all close, which can even include places where one candidate has a 10 point lead, candidates often come out with the same, or nearly the same, number of delegates.

According to Nate Cohn, Van Hollen leads by 8 points in the exit polls.

Exit polls project:

Pennsylvania: Hillary 55% to Bernie 45%.
Connecticut: Hillary 50% to Bernie 47%.

No exit polls in Rhode Island or Delaware. Sanders leads in Rhode Island with 1% of the vote in so far.

Early exit polls suggest the Maryland results will be:

Hillary, 64%
Bernie, 33%

Men are only 40% of the Democratic vote. Hillary won the white vote with 56% and the black vote with 76%. Blacks are the largest share of the electorate at 46%. Good news for Donna Edwards?

On the Republican side:

Trump, 62%
Kasich, 24%
Cruz, 21%

Men compose 52% of Republican voters. Huge gender gap with 59% of men voting Trump compared to 46% of women. Will Gov. Hogan endorse him?