Tag Archives: Joseline Peña-Melnyk

Division at Unity Rally?

April 29, 2016 David Lublin

The Democratic Unity Rally may not have been the best way to demonstrate that Maryland Democrats are united moving from primary seats towards November.

On the good news front, Joseline Peña-Melnyk and Glenn Ivey both showed up and were gracious in their support of Democratic Fourth Congressional District Nominee Anthony Brown.

From the Eighth Congressional District, Kumar Barve and Joel Rubin came and lent support to Democratic Nominee Jamie Raskin. (UPDATE: Will Jawando was there too.) David Trone, Kathleen Matthews and Ana Sol Gutierrez were not there but I know that both Trone and Matthews have endorsed Raskin. No information on Gutierrez but I’d be surprised if she was not supportive of her colleague in the General Assembly.

The biggest rift remains from the U.S. Senate race. Rep. Donna Edwards was noticeably absent after her tough loss to colleague Chris Van Hollen. People in the Edwards camp believe she was badly treated by establishment Democrats and the Washington Post.

Frankly, I think these day-after the election events are a bit hard on the candidates. All are exhausted from lack of sleep and emotions are often understandably raw. I admire the people who didn’t win for showing up – it’s a good, gracious, and right thing to do.

But I can also understand those who just need a moment. Regardless, I look forward to moves in coming days by both Edwards and Van Hollen to help bring Democrats together.

Board of Education, Congress

Endorsement and Announcement

December 8, 2015 David Lublin

First, EMILY’s List has endorsed Joseline Peña-Melnyk for the open Fourth Congressional District. EMILY’s List supports pro-choice Democratic women for elected office in federal and gubernatorial races. It has already weighed in strongly in the U.S. Senate race with a $1 million ad buy for Donna Edwards. It will be interesting to see the level of resources committed in the Fourth.

Second, Shebra Evans has announced her candidacy for School Board from the Fourth District in Montgomery County. Here is an excerpt from the press release:

Montgomery County is and will continue to be a great place for education as long as we keep our focus on classroom instruction. We should never forget that we are here to help all students achieve. Shebra wants the education community–students, parents, teachers and administrators–to excel. The education community excels with the closing of “opportunity gaps” and the expansion of “education opportunities”. Students excel when they are inspired by dynamic teachers. Parents and teachers excel by listening and working together. All excel with the hiring of and the retention of visionary administrators who view education through a lens beneficial to students, common to parents, compelling to teachers with a singular goal of making a Montgomery County education, the very best it can be.

Shebra has done and continues to do the work needed to advance the education community. She has served in a number of capacities within the educational community.

·         PTA member and PTA Officer
·         Board of Directors for Montgomery County Council of PTA’s
·         MCCPTA Vice President – Educational Issues
·         MCCPTA Vice President — Programs
·         MCCPTA — Recording Secretary
·         Member of the Delegate assembly
·         Coordinator Wheaton Cluster
·         MCPS – Operating Budget Review Workgroup
·         MCPS- Wheaton High Advisory Committee
·         MCPS- Math Exam workgroup
·         African American Student Achievement Group — Co-leader

In addition to her work with the local schools, Shebra serves in the Children’s Ministry at her church and is actively involved with Girl Scouts of America.

Shebra earned her Bachelors of Business Administration degree in Economics and Finance.

Though there is a residency requirement, all county voters will be able to participate in this election.

Evans had the support of the Montgomery County Education Association (MCEA) in her previous bid, which she lost narrowly to Jill Ortman-Fouse. As former MCEA President Bonnie Cullison tweeted her enthusiastic support, my guess is she will again.

Anne Arundel, Fourth Congressional District, Prince George's

CD4: Where are the Voters?

March 23, 2015 David Lublin

The overwhelmingly Democratic Fourth Congressional District will be open in 2016 since incumbent Rep. Donna Edwards is making a bid for the U.S. Senate rather than seeking reelection. So where do the Democrats who will vote in the primary live?

Registered Democrats by Legislative District

The Fourth CD is split between Anne Arundel and Prince George’s but 86% of registered Democrats live in Prince George’s. Former Prince George’s State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey was on the ballot repeatedly, though he has not been on the ballots since 2006.

The following table shows the number of registered Democrats as well as the number who voted in each of the four past Democratic primaries within the portion of each state legislative district included in the Fourth Congressional District.

Newly elected Del. Erek Barron (D-24) is rumored to be interested in running for the Fourth. At 21.0%, D24 has the highest share of registered voters. Though Democratic primary turnout is slightly sub par, voters in this legislative district nonetheless consistently provided over one-fifth of all voters.

District 25 does not lag far behind District 24’s voting power with 18.7% of the CD 4’s registered Democrats. This is Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown’s former legislative district. Talented Del. Dereck Davis (D-25), the powerful Chair of the Economic Matters Committee, is also said to be musing about running for the seat.

Del. Jay Walker (D-26) is openly exploring a bid. Sen. Anthony Muse (D-26) from the same district is also rumored to be thinking about it. D26 has the third highest share of registered Democrats but lags notably behind either D24 or D25 with 14.4% of CD 4’s Democrats. Moreover, turnout is often mediocre–it fell as low as 13.4% of the Fourth’s total though it reached 14.9% on the one occasion in which the share of voters exceeded registrants.

Former Del. Jolene Ivey represented District 47 under different boundaries before redistricting. The current version of D47 holds 13.4% of CD 4’s registered Democrats but turnout consistently lags. In the past four Democratic primaries, voters from D47 never comprised more than 11.9% of the voters in CD 4.

Nevertheless, Jolene Ivey, a successful and highly talented politician in her own right who ran for Lt. Governor last year, will undoubtedly be an asset to her husband Glenn Ivey’s campaign. When she last ran for the House in 2010, she came in first by a mile in a crowded primary with eight candidates.

Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk (D-21) is planning a run. Currently, she represents just 8.1% of registered Democratic in CD 4. A small base on which to build.

Registered Democrats by Legislative and County Council Districts

The second table shows the share of registered Democrats broken down by state legislative and county council district. None of the Anne Arundel Councilmembers represent more than 5% of registered Democrats in CD 4.

Prince George’s Council Vice Chair Derrick Davis (D-6)–not to be confused with the state legislator with the very similar name–represents 20.3% of registered Democrats but 64% also live in Legislative District 25. As this is declared candidate Anthony Brown’s former district and Del. Dereck Davis’s current district, competition for these voters could be fierce.

Councilwoman Karen Toles (D-7) represents 17.4% of CD 4’s registered Democrats. This district has significant overlap with Del. Erek Barron’s legislative district, as well as those of Brown/Davis and Walker/Muse. 15.5% of CD 4’s registered Dems also live in Council District 5, held by Andrea Harrison. This district has a lot of overlap with D24 (Barron) and D47A (Jolene Ivey).

Former Council Chair Ingrid Turner has expressed interest in running for the Fourth. But she represented Council District 4. In its current incarnation, it falls almost entirely into CD 5. Just 0.8% of CD 4’s registered Dems live in District 4.

Likely Voters by State Legislative and County Council Districts

The final table breaks down the share of Democrats who voted in at least two of the past four primaries by state legislative district and county council district:

This table indicates even more cleanly that Council District 6 is the heartland of CD 4’s Democratic voters. While it has less than a 3% advantage over Council District 7 in registered Dems, it has a 10.6% lead over the same district in two-time primary voters–23.8% versus 13.2%. No wonder Dereck Davis is thinking about running. (Notice also that Council District 5 leapfrogs ahead of Council District 7 in this table.)

Among state legislative districts, the biggest drop is in D47, which has 2.2% fewer two-time primary voters than registered Dems. Legislative Districts 24 and 25 have a slightly higher share of two-time primary voters than registered Democrats. But the statistics change less dramatic; the increase is 0.7% for D24 and 0.2% for D25. In contrast, the share of two-time primary voters is lower the registered Dems by 0.6% in D26.

Based on this table, the most desirable pieces of real estate to have represented before in terms of Democratic primary turnout are:

1. Maryland (Brown)
2. Prince George’s County (Ivey)
3. Prince George’s County Council District 6 (Derrick Davis)
4. State Legislative District 24 (Barron)
5. State Legislative District 25 (Dereck Davis/Brown)
6. Anne Arundel County
7. Prince George’s County Council District 5
8. State Legislative District 26 (Walker/Muse)
9. Prince George’s County Council District 7
10. Prince George’s County Council District 8
11. State Senate District 47
12. State Legislative District 33
13. State House District 47A
14. Prince George’s County Council District 1
15. State Legislative District 21 (Peña-Melnyk)

Congress, Prince George's

MD-04 Battle Looms Large

March 11, 2015 John Gallagher

Former State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey at the Announcement of
Del. Jolene Ivey’s bid for Lieutenant Governor

Rep. Donna Edwards is announcing her Senate bid today, which means a slew of people are thinking of running for the open Fourth.

Maryland’s Fourth Congressional District, which stretches from Anne Arundel County and around the border of the District of Columbia to take in most of inside the beltway Prince George’s County, is the wealthiest, most highly educated African American majority district in the country. We can expect a lively, crowded primary for this heavily Democratic seat.

The Hon. Rev. Bishop Senator C. Anthony Muse
Perhaps the most flamboyantly colorful member of the Maryland Legislature (Delegate Oaks of Baltimore City is more sartorially extroverted but he lacks Muse’s flair for the dramatic in other regards) brings a large base of south County voters and will have support among the large community of African-American Evangelical voters in the 4th.

How he expands his base is an open question, as his fundraising. He can’t be counted out, though his noted conservative positions, particularly on social issues, will attract a rush of progressive money to any other candidate if it looks like he stands a chance.

Former State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey or Former Del. Jolene Ivey
Glenn Ivey is a very dynamic, well connected former Prince George’s County State’s Attorney with a wealth of downtown DC connections to lean on. It’s rumored that his wife, former Delegate Jolene Ivey is making calls soliciting support for a potential bid on his behalf.

While he was an immensely popular State’s Attorney, he’s in a less strong position than if this primary were happening closer to when he last held office. On the other hand, former Del. Jolene Ivey, his wife, just ran for Lt. Governor, and only continued to build upon on her already positive image. She too would be an excellent candidate. In short, both are terrific political assets to the other.

Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk
Joseline Peña-Melnyk looks potentially like the only Latino candidate in the race as it appears that State Senator Victor Ramirez will take a pass. However, there are fewer than 20,000 registered Latinos in district so this community only provides so large a base. Peña-Melnyk is Dominican, while most of the Latinos in the district are Salvadorian (as is Ramirez). Furthermore, much of District 21, which she represents, is in the Fifth District.

Mary Lehman
Mary Lehman is a term-limited Prince George’s County Councilwoman representing much of the Laurel area. She previously served as Chief of Staff to the last person to hold her current seat–Tom Dernoga. While well liked and respected by many in the community, she lacks to rolodex to raise the millions needed for a competitive campaign.

She would likely be perceived by many as the white candidate, although in a crowded field in a black-majority district that isn’t necessarily a bad place to be. Especially when even though the majority of residents are African American, a slight majority of registered voters are white.

Del. Erek Barron
He is a freshmen Delegate from Prince George’s County with a long resume that includes stints working for Joe Biden and as a high level prosecutor. Barron has deep ties into the legal community in Baltimore and the District of Colombia, as well as on Capitol Hill. He could likely raise more money than all other candidates except either of the Iveys. He has already impressed many in his brief time in the legislature and shouldn’t be underestimated.

Former Lt. Governor Anthony Brown
Mere months ago the idea that today Anthony Brown would be a heavy underdog candidate in a potential comeback for an open congressional seat would be so fundamentally bizarre and incongruous that it belied even a hint of plausibility. But, lo, how the mighty hath fallen

While Brown is currently largely persona non grata throughout Maryland, he is a very talented, fairly charismatic pol with a sterling resume who did carry his home county very strongly. Far stranger things have happened (See: Sanford, Mark). Don’t count him out.

transgender rights

FAMA Passes the House–Vote Tally

March 27, 2014 David Lublin

Today, the House voted 82-57 to pass the Fairness for All Marylanders Act, the transgender equality bill. This day would not have come without the hard work of many people. The Maryland Coalition for Trans Equality along with Equality Maryland’s Carrie Evans and Keith Thirion worked indefatigably on this issue.

Of course, the bill’s sponsors, Sen. Rich Madaleno and Del. Luke Clippinger, also deserve much credit. While she was not the lead sponsor this year, Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk worked hard for many years on this issue, as did Sen. Jamie Raskin. I know Del. Bonnie Cullison did much to move the bill forward this year as well.

A total of twelve Democrats voted against the bill. No Republicans voted for the bill. Here is the vote tally in the House of Delegates (listed by district):

YEA (all D): Busch, Clagett, Olszewski, Bromwell, Jones, Nathan-Pulliam, Cardin, Morhaim, Stein, Bobo, DeBoy, Mallone, Guzzone, Pendergrass, F. Turner, Kaiser, Luedtke, Zucker, Dumais, Fraser-Hidalgo, A. Miller, Frick, A. Kelly, Lee, Barve, Gilchrist, Simmons, Carr, Gutiérrez, Waldstreicher, Arora, Cullison, Kramer, Hixson, Hucker, Mizeur, Barnes, Frush, Peña-Melnyk, Gaines, Healy, A. Washington, Holmes, Hubbard, Valentino-Smith, Howard, Swain, Braveboy, Davis, Griffith, V. Turner, Valderrama, Proctor, Vallario, Murphy, Beidle, Love, Cane, Barkley, Reznik, S. Robinson, Conaway, B. Robinson, Tarrant, Carter, Oaks, Rosenberg, Lafferty, Anderson, McIntosh, M. Washington, Haynes, Mitchell, Stukes, Branch, Glenn, Clippinger, Hammen, McHale, Ivey, Niemann, Summers.

NAY (all R unless indicated): Beitzel, K. Kelly (D), Myers, Donoghue (D), Parrott, Serafini, Hogan, Hough, Afzali, Elliott, Schulz, Kach, Ready, Stocksdale, Minnick (D), Weir (D), Impallaria, McDonough, Szeliga, Boteler, Cluster, Bates, Krebs, W. Miller, Burns (D), Vaughn (D), Walker (D), Fisher, Jameson (D), Wilson (D), Bohanan (D), O’Donnell, Wood, George, McMillan, Dwyer, Kipke, Schuh, Sophocleus (D), Costa, McConkey, Vitale, Glass, James (D), Rudolph (D), McComas, Norman, Stifler, Arentz, Jacobs, Smigiel, Eckardt, Haddaway-Riccio, Conway (D), McDermott, Otto, Aumann.

NOT VOTING: Frank (R), Harper (D)

Seventh State