No one is saying Donna Edwards is going anywhere after working hard to get a firm hold on the Fourth Congressional District but I thought it would be fun to speculate if she left her seat open, say, during a bid for higher office. We’d have an incredibly interesting Democratic Primary on our hands. I believe that the following would likely be tempted to run:
- The Hon. Rev. Bishop Senator C. Anthony Muse (District 26).
- Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker III.
- Either former Delegate and Lt. Gov. Candidate Jolene Ivey (District 47) or Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey. Since they’re married, they’d have to flip a coin.
- Anne Arundel County Councilman Jamie Benoit.
- State Senator Victor Ramirez (District 47).
Each of these candidates bring there own strengths, bases and weaknesses to the race.
Senator Muse has a rock solid base in southern Prince George’s County and would be an incredibly dynamic candidate with an inspiring story of homeless to state house. I think he could raise over $300,000 but I’m not sure how much more. However, that doesn’t go far on a congressional race in the DC media market. And his quixotic challenge to Sen. Ben Cardin went nowhere.
County Executive Baker is very popular in Prince George’s County, which makes up two-thirds of MD-04. He would start out the heavy favorite. It would be interesting to see how he departs from his usual donor base of developers who care much less about the next freshman member of Congress than County Executive. However, I think he could raise if not $2 million dollars, close to it.
Jolene Ivey was an incredibly dynamic and impressive running mate for Doug Gansler. She would be an immensely strong candidate and could raise around $1 million. She has a solid base in the 47th Legislative District, which would be completely fractured if both she and the Senator from that district, Victor Ramirez, ran.
Glenn Ivey was a popular prosecutor and an immense political talent. He also has a thick political rolodex stretching from Capitol Hill to Prince George’s to Annapolis and Baltimore. I think he could raise an even million. His short-lived congressional bid in 2012 may hurt him and his wife’s profile is much higher. Likely neither will have Anthony Brown’s support.
Jamie Benoit is a popular County Councilman, a veteran and the Chief Executive of a rapidly growing business. He was heavily recruited by state Democrats to run for Anne Arundel County Executive but bowed out (and retired from the Council) to focus on his business. He also toyed with the idea of running for Congress in MD-04 in 2012. If he could galvanize his base in Anne Arundel County and appeal to white voters in Northern Prince George’s, he might have an outside shot. But without self funding he wouldn’t have the resources to get his message out–perhaps a quarter million dollars. If he self funded, he could perhaps get that number up to 500k-750k.
Victor Ramirez is a popular and charismatic State Legislator. He is also the undisputed voice of Prince George’s County’s (and perhaps Maryland’s) rapidly exploding Latino population. If he could mobilize that constituency, he’d have an outside shot at winning a plurality victory in this crowded primary.
Rating: Lean Baker
And who knows who else might run? Maybe an Al Wynn comeback bid? Did I miss anyone? Did I miss you? Email johnga.ems@Gmail.com with tips.