By Adam Pagnucco.
Mailhouses rejoice as Council District 3 rivals Sidney Katz and Ben Shnider have chosen to exchange early mailers in an increasingly active race. We’ll have more to say about this primary soon.
Campaign Finance Reports: Districts 18 and 19, January 2018
By Adam Pagnucco.
District 18
Delegate Jeff Waldstreicher has posted a strong financial performance in his run to succeed Senator Rich Madaleno. He has raised more money over the cycle and has more cash on hand than any other state legislator in the county. But Dana Beyer has spent nearly a half million dollars of her own money in her three prior races and could spend a whole lot more. Beyer told Bethesda Magazine “she does not plan to self-finance this year’s Senate bid” but still gave her campaign $109,100. While Waldstreicher’s cash on hand advantage is substantial, Beyer could erase it with one check.
The recent endorsement by SEIU Local 500 of Beyer may have a big impact on this race. Prior to that, Waldstreicher could make the case to other progressive endorsing organizations that as a three-term incumbent running against someone who was for 0-3 in elections (two running against him) that he would have a big edge and was the safe pick. But SEIU is a huge player and brings credibility to Beyer’s run. Now the endorsing groups may be more likely to evaluate the two against each other on a level playing field and see Beyer as a true alternative. Our prediction is that this will not be the last significant endorsement that Beyer receives.
The Delegate race is just as interesting. Incumbent Al Carr had the most raised over the cycle but also has a huge burn rate (81%). He trails Mila Johns and Jared Solomon in cash on hand. Johns leads in cash position (boosted by her $100,000 loan to her campaign) while Solomon led the non-incumbents in fundraising from others ($42,011). Emily Shetty has been a prominent local player since her fourth place finish last time, joining the county’s Democratic Central Committee and doing work with Action Committee for Transit and her former civic association. But she doesn’t want to trail in money behind Carr, Johns and Solomon to the extent she is now. Town of Chevy Chase Council Member Joel Rubin’s cash balance is deceptively low since he began campaigning in November and raised $269,845 in his 2016 run for Congress. Leslie Milano created her campaign account too late to file a January report but says she plans to raise $150,000. Helga Luest was also a late starter. Normally, the only incumbent in a race like this – in this case, it’s Carr – would be favored for reelection. But the challengers are a pack of hungry wolves and Carr is going to have to work to keep his seat.
The Big Question: will there be competing slates in this district? Both Beyer and Waldstreicher have money, which is much needed by all the House candidates. Our prediction is that any move to set up a slate by either Beyer or Waldstreicher will provoke the other side to unify too. Competing slates aligned with contested Senate races were common in District 18 decades ago and another one could really scramble this election.
The Other Big Question: will Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez stay in the Council District 1 race, where she has not qualified for public matching funds and ranks a distant fifth in cash on hand, or will she return to the District 18 House race?
District 19
With the departure of Senator Roger Manno, who is running for Congress in District 6, Delegate Ben Kramer will become the next Senator and the dominant politician in the district. Kramer, who was first elected to the House in 2006, is known for his work on senior issues and public safety, and has been a true hero in his efforts to crack down on drunk driving. He has an absolute lockdown on Leisure World and Kemp Mill, two vital power centers in the district. Kramer is not universally beloved, but he is well respected and no other politicians will mess with him. In politics, that is enough!
The two incumbent Delegates, Bonnie Cullison and Marice Morales, will sweep virtually all the progressive endorsements and be reelected. As for the seat being vacated by Kramer, the simple view is that former Raskin campaign aide Vaughn Stewart, who totally smoked the field (including the incumbents) in fundraising, will win it. But the race may not be that simple. MCDCC Member and labor attorney Marlin Jenkins did reasonably well in fundraising and should get a lot of labor support. And attorney Charlotte Crutchfield, who barely lost to Morales for the open House seat in 2014, is running again.
Crutchfield is not a strong fundraiser, having collected just $11,960 from others last time while self-financing $44,149. But she has a long history in the district and Kramer formed a slate with her in 2014. Manno endorsed Morales, his former legislative aide, and Morales won by 382 votes. Crutchfield filed an affidavit as her January report but her new campaign has just started.
The Big Question: will Kramer team up with Crutchfield again? And if he does, will Cullison and Morales also join in?
MCDCC Conflict of Interest Concerns
The Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee has a six members running for office this year:
- Emily Shetty (Vice Chair), Delegate District 18.
- Julian Haffner (Treasurer), Delegate District 17.
- Loretta Jean Garcia, County Council At-Large.
- Danielle Meitiv, County Council At-Large.
- Marlin Jenkins, Delegate District 19.
- Brenda Wolff, School Board.
Additionally, MCDCC Chair Dave Kunes is also the Chief of Staff for Councilmember Tom Hucker. Chris Bradbury sought the appointment to the District 14 vacancy. He quit the committee in a huff when he realized he wasn’t going to win but then managed to withdraw his repented resignation. MCDCC appointed Pam Queen, another one of its members, instead.
These candidacies present a problem because MCDCC is meant to promote turnout and run the precinct organization for both the primary and the general elections. How can candidates possibly have the time to carry out these functions or do so in a neutral manner?
MD VAN Access
Additionally, MCDCC members have access to the VAN vote database, which contains valuable information on voters that normally costs money to buy. I have asked the MCDCC members running for office if they have purchased access to the VAN. Marlin Jenkins, Emily Shetty and Danielle Meitiv purchased it in the Fall, assuring that there is no conflict between their use of it for MCDCC and their own campaign.
Loretta Garcia communicated via email that she has not purchased VAN access for her campaign. Brenda Wolff says she plans to purchase it this week “in preparation for February door knocking.” I have not heard from Julian Haffner, who recently jumped from running for the County Council to the delegate contest.
Proposed By-Laws Change
A change to MCDCC’s by-laws has been proposed that would require candidates to resign from the committee if they are candidates for office in the Democratic primary.
MCDCC has yet to consider the change, which would go into effect for this year’s elections. All of the candidates, except Wolff who is running for a non-partisan office, would have to resign. It will be interesting how the candidates vote on it if MCDCC takes it up.
Ambition is healthy and politicians of all stripes often use their offices to their political benefit – often being responsive to the electorate as a result. However, in this case, MCDCC members shape the raw political process rather than public policy and it’s ripe for conflicts of interest. MCDCC also needs members focused on Democrats more broadly, rather than their own campaign, as turnout will be key to defeating Hogan.
Campaign Finance Reports: Districts 16 and 17, January 2018
By Adam Pagnucco.
District 16
First, the easy part: all three incumbents – Senator Susan Lee and Delegates Ariana Kelly and Marc Korman – are running as a team and are headed to reelection. Lee has historically been one of the delegation’s best fundraisers (although Korman surpassed her by a little bit this cycle). Kelly is beloved by advocates for families, women and children for her work on their issues and has emerged as a leader on ridding Annapolis of sexual harassment. Korman is a rare bird: a lawyer who is good with numbers. Metro riders everywhere should thank him for his tenacious work to improve WMATA. Great things are predicted for Korman so long as he does not return to blogging.
Attorney Sara Love and MCPS teacher Samir Paul are the top non-incumbents vying for the seat being vacated by Delegate Bill Frick, who is running for County Executive. Love and Paul would be great candidates in any part of the county, but unfortunately for them, they are running in the same district. Love fits in well with the progressive female voters who dominate District 16 primaries. Paul is a teacher who has been active in MCEA (which has endorsed him), but his message is much bigger than education as he draws links between all public institutions that confer benefits but require investment, especially WMATA. Love and Paul had super fundraising performances and are essentially equal in cash on hand. Those who have met them are impressed with both of them, but sadly, there is only one open seat.
The Big Question: will Frick, who filed a disappointing January report, drop back down to the House race? We know Frick does not enjoy that question, but since he withdrew from the Attorney General’s race and refiled for Delegate at the last hour in 2014, this is on everybody’s mind. Such a move by Frick would probably result in all four incumbents being reelected, wasting huge time and effort by Love and Paul.
District 17
This district is a mess. The only certainty here is that Senator Cheryl Kagan and Delegate Kumar Barve will be reelected, assuming that Kagan is not picked up by a gubernatorial candidate as a running mate. As for everything else… well.
At the root of the mess is Delegate Jim Gilchrist. By all accounts, he is a nice guy who never causes trouble. His defenders describe him as a studious, intellectual workhorse who gets into the weeds and doesn’t claim credit for anything. But he has little tangible to show for three terms in office. He has passed no signature legislation. His website is inactive. His Facebook page has not been updated since 2014 as of this writing. And his fundraising is weak. Consider this: since 2006, Gilchrist has raised a total of $83,217 from others, an average of $27,739 per cycle. (He has also self-financed $11,120 over that period.) MoCo has a bunch of candidates who can raise $27,000 in a month.
The search result for Gilchrist’s website less than five months from election day.
So why does he keep winning office? He has a guardian angel: Barve, who is his committee chair and likes him. Barve slates with him regularly and appears in joint mailers with him. Gilchrist would be a goner in most districts, but with Barve helping him, he survives. And that has caused grumbling in some parts of District 17.
This time, Rockville City Council Member Julie Palakovich Carr decided to run for Delegate in July even when it appeared that all three incumbents (Barve, Gilchrist and Andrew Platt) were running for reelection. Six months later, Platt dropped out and Barve and Gilchrist quickly decided to slate with Palakovich Carr. That’s when simmering tensions erupted into the open.
Kagan, who is no fan of Gilchrist, announced that she was not endorsing the Delegate slate, at least not yet. This is almost unheard of; in virtually all cases when incumbent Delegates form a slate and none of them are challenging the sitting Senator, the Senator participates. And when Kagan posted her decision on Facebook, the Mayor of Gaithersburg and two Gaithersburg City Council Members voiced their displeasure with the slate.
Open dissatisfaction with the Delegate slate surfaces on Kagan’s Facebook page.
The nominal reason expressed by some for their unhappiness is that with the inclusion of Palakovich Carr, all three slate members are from Rockville and none are from Gaithersburg. (The two cities are roughly equal in size.) But lurking underneath is festering discontent with Gilchrist’s performance in office. Some would prefer open competition in part because it might lead to Gilchrist’s defeat, but instead they got another slate designed to protect him. Two Gaithersburg House candidates – school board member Rebecca Smondrowski and attorney Julian Haffner (who is married to a City Council Member) – have now entered the race. Barve is the only Delegate candidate with any real money, so all the others have a lot of work to do.
The Big Questions: will the Gaithersburg grumblers step up and organize for one or more of the House candidates from their city? Or will they cut their losses and make their peace with Barve and his slate-mates? And what, if anything, will Kagan do?
Sierra Club Endorses Berliner, Council Candidates
By Adam Pagnucco.
The Montgomery County Sierra Club has endorsed Roger Berliner for County Executive as well as several council candidates. With a brand commonly recognized by progressives around the country, the Sierra Club’s support is valued in MoCo. Many expected this endorsement to go to Marc Elrich, so this is a blow to him and a boost for Berliner. It’s also a big pickup for District 3 challenger Ben Shnider, who is starting to get traction against incumbent Sidney Katz. We reprint their press release below.
*****
Sierra Club endorses Berliner for County Executive; and several outstanding candidates for County Council
ROCKVILLE, MD – The Sierra Club, representing 6000 members across Montgomery County, announced today that it is endorsing Roger Berliner for County Executive and several outstanding candidates for the County Council.
Those endorsed for the four At-large Council seats are Evan Glass, Will Jawando, Danielle Meitiv, and Hans Riemer. In addition, Sierra Club is endorsing Ben Shnider for District 3; Nancy Navarro for District 4; and Tom Hucker for District 5.
With all the open seats in this election, 2018 provides an historic opportunity to elect a county government committed to forging significant and measurable solutions to addressing climate change through a variety of new and enhanced programs and policies.
Dave Sears, chair of the Montgomery County group of Sierra Club said, “We are excited about the prospects of our endorsed candidates focusing their skills, experience, and knowledge on making our county a national model for how local governments address the climate emergency facing our planet.”
Campaign Finance Reports: Districts 14 and 15, January 2018
By Adam Pagnucco.
Today kicks off a series of reports on fundraising in MoCo’s state legislative districts. Incumbents are marked in red.
District 14
This is by far the easiest MoCo state legislative race to figure out. All four incumbents – Senator Craig Zucker and Delegates Anne Kaiser, Eric Luedtke and Pam Queen – are going to be reelected. The end.
District 15
Senator Brian Feldman has achieved every politician’s dream: a complete deterrence of credible competition. Since he first won a House seat in 2002, he has never been at risk of losing an election. Meanwhile, four of his MoCo Senate colleagues (Cheryl Kagan, Rich Madaleno, Roger Manno and Nancy King) have endured tough races in recent years to gain or hold their seats. Will any serious candidate ever run against him? Of course, your author would be the first to sing Feldman’s praises as a public official and any challenger stupid enough to run would lose, but – dang it – Feldman is not doing his part to keep political bloggers busy!
Incumbent Delegates Kathleen Dumais and David Fraser-Hidalgo will be reelected despite their somewhat anemic fundraising. Of the candidates seeking to succeed Delegate Aruna Miller, who is running for Congress, Montgomery County Assistant Chief Administrative Officer Lily Qi looks like the strongest contender. Your author worked with Qi during his time in county government and found her to be smart, competent and forward-thinking. She was one of the uncommon people who could deal with the day-to-day tribulations of working for the county while also possessing the capacity to assume a perspective from 30,000 feet. Qi has done well at raising money, and with her standing in the local Chinese-American community, her admirers in the business community and the support of her boss, County Executive Ike Leggett, she has had a good start.
Kevin Mack, who is Congressman John Delaney’s constituent service lead, is well regarded by those who have interacted with him and is the principal alternative to Qi. But it’s not helpful that he trailed political consultant Andy VanWye in fundraising. Hamza Khan, who switched from the District 39 House race, has not yet filed his campaign finance report and is being fined by the Board of Elections. Republicans were once competitive in this district and held a Delegate seat here as recently as 2006, but they will not win any seats in the age of Trump.
The Big Question: will the incumbents slate with Qi as they slated with Miller, then a new candidate, in 2010? If they do, this race will probably be over.
SEIU Local 500 Warns Incumbents
By Adam Pagnucco.
SEIU Local 500, perhaps the fastest-growing large union in Maryland, has endorsed Senate candidate Dana Beyer and House candidates Emily Shetty and Mila Johns in District 18 and House candidate Gabe Acevero in District 39. But the bigger news is their warning to state-level incumbents: we will not endorse any of you until after the legislative session. It’s a ballsy move designed to maximize their leverage over significant bills. Incumbents beware!
We reprint Local 500’s press release below.
*****
For Immediate Release
January 26, 2018
Contact: Christopher Honey
honeyc@seiu500.org
SEIU Local 500 endorses Dana Beyer for Maryland State Senate District 18
Union makes multiple endorsements in open seats, but is not yet making endorsements in legislative seats where incumbents are running for re-election
(Gaithersburg, MD) SEIU Local 500, the largest Union local in Montgomery County today announced it was throwing its weight behind Dana Beyer for the Maryland Senate in District 18.
“In this era of Donald Trump and Larry Hogan, our members know we need a fighter to go to Annapolis and join the resistance. Our members know Dana and know that she will do just that” said Merle Cuttitta, President of SEIU Local 500. “This endorsement takes nothing from our stalwart ally, Delegate Jeff Waldstreicher. Elections in Montgomery County are often about tough choices between good friends.”
In addition, SEIU 500 made the following additional endorsements for seats that are left open by members not seeking reelection:
- District 18: Mila Johns and Emily Shetty (House of Delegates)
- District 39: Gabriel Acevero (House of Delegates)
SEIU Local 500 is not endorsing ANY incumbents running for re-election to their current offices until after the end of the legislative session.
“We are endorsing open seats early to give our political team and members more time to work with our endorsed newcomers to make sure they win” said President Cuttitta. “As in the District 18 Senate race, the caliber of candidates we interviewed was higher than ever. We had to leave some great candidates on the table – from Jared Solomon in the District 18 Delegate race, to Lesley Lopez in the District 39 Delegate race.”
MSEA Makes Early Endorsements
By Adam Pagnucco.
The Maryland State Education Association (MSEA) has made early endorsements in state legislative races. The endorsement of MSEA and its local affiliate, the Montgomery County Education Association (MCEA), deploys the mighty Apple Ballot, one of the most powerful tools in MoCo politics. The endorsements below are just the first batch and more will follow later.
In MoCo, the teachers are now supporting:
District 14: Senator Craig Zucker, Delegates Eric Luedtke, Pam Queen and Anne Kaiser
District 15: Senator Brian Feldman, Delegates Kathleen Dumais and David Fraser-Hidalgo
District 16: Senator Susan Lee, Delegates Marc Korman and Ariana Kelly and MCEA member Samir Paul
District 18: Delegate Al Carr
District 19: Delegate Bonnie Collision
District 20: Senator Will Smith, Delegates David Moon and Jheanelle Wilkins
District 39: Senator Nancy King, Delegates Kirill Reznik and Shane Robinson
All of the above are incumbents except Samir Paul, who is an MCPS teacher and MCEA member running in District 16. None of them are surprises. The teachers’ endorsement decisions on open seats and contested races will be very interesting. We are sure that every candidate is waiting with bated breath!
Part II: Democrats Most Likely to Lose 1-2 Senate Seats
Part I looked at the relationship between Trump’s share of the vote and Democratic success in Virginia’s state house elections. Today, I look and see what the Virginia results indicate for Maryland Senate races.
Using a statistical technique called logit, I estimated the probability of Democratic victories in all 47 districts based on the relationship between the share of the vote won by Trump and election outcomes in Virginia.
I also controlled for the presence of Republican incumbents. The statistical model indicated that the relationship is not statistically significant, but the inclusion of this factor results in slightly lower probabilities of success in districts with GOP incumbents. (All Democratic incumbents won and represented seats Clinton won by 15 points, so I cannot similarly control for any advantage held by Democratic incumbents.)
The statistical model suggests that Democrats are most likely to lose 1 or 2 seats in the Senate. A more conservative estimate would be that the Democrats lose 0 to 3 seats. Even a loss of 3 seats would leave Democrats with more than enough to override a Hogan veto should he overcome tough political winds and win reelection.
Which seats are most likely to shift?
Most Vulnerable Democratic Seat
Sen. Jim Mathias defies political gravity in holding Eastern Shore District 38, which gave Trump 61% of the vote – a full 28 points higher than the share received by Clinton. But this former Ocean City Mayor earns it by out hustling his opponents in every way and is a born politician. He beat a delegate in 2014 and will likely face one-term Del. Mary Beth Carozza this year.
District 38 has three subdistricts so Carozza has represented just one-third of the district, including Mathias’s home in Ocean City. She has $114K in the bank compared to $250K for Mathias. Senate President Miller spent big to aid Mathias in 2014 and is prepared to do it again. Hogan and the Republicans have also promised to invest large sums, but the big question is whether Hogan will decide he needs to money for himself.
Despite in theory being a lock for Republicans, this race is a conundrum. Statistically. Mathias should be a dead duck. But the same was true in 2014. Why should Mathias now lose in 2018, expected to be a good Democratic year? Additionally, my model cannot control for any positive impact of Democratic incumbency. I rate it a toss-up.
Vulnerable Democrats?
Recall from Part I that seats that had the potential to go either way in Virginia fell into the range of giving Trump between 40.5% and 48.0% of the vote. Only five Maryland Senate seats fall into this range, all held by Democrats:
Individually, Democrats are likely to win each of the seats. None are particularly encouraging for Republicans. Collectively, the model indicates a 60% chance of losing one of these seats.
District 3: Frederick
As usual, Republicans plan on going after Sen. Ron Young in Frederick. Good luck with that. The model suggests he is a lock, and this ignores that Frederick has been trending Democratic or that Democrats thumped Republicans in last year’s City of Frederick elections to win control of the mayoralty and city council. Trump lost to Clinton by 8 points in this district. Not going to happen.
District 27: Anne Arundel, Calvert and Prince George’s
Similarly, taking down Senate President Mike Miller would be quite a prize for Republicans. The model gives Republicans a 1 percent shot in this district Trump lost by over 5 points. However, it’s virtually impossible to see how the always well-prepared Miller, the longest serving legislative leader in American history, goes down in territory he has won easily for decades.
District 30: Anne Arundel
The next three seats have Republicans salivating but the model indicates that they are underdogs in each. Sen. John Astle’s retirement from his Annapolis-based district, after losing the primary for city’s mayoralty, leaves a vacancy. Even so, Republicans have only a 14% shot at picking up this district.
Democrats are very pleased with their dynamic and politically experienced candidate, Sarah Elfreth. As in Frederick, Democrats gave Republicans a hiding in the 2017 Annapolis municipal elections. Former Del. Ron George has a clear path to the Republican nomination, as Del. Herb McMillan has given the race a pass. George ran for governor in 2014, losing Anne Arundel to Hogan in the primary by a 2-1 margin. However, George has a bank balance of $169K to $50K for Elfreth.
District 8: Baltimore
Republicans seem to think that they have a shot at taking out Sen. Kathy Klausmeier. The model indicates they have a 1 in 6 chance of victory but that doesn’t take into account any incumbency benefit held by Klausmeier. Their candidate, Del. Christian Miele, doesn’t seem too excited about his prospects, sensing that voter anger with Trump will dominate:
“It definitely gives you some heartburn as a Republican when you see what just happened,” said Republican Delegate Christian J. Miele, of Baltimore County, who is challenging Democratic state Sen. Katherine Klausmeier. “We’re all wondering if 2018 is going to be a continued referendum on the president.”
As Trump’s life goal is to be in the headlines, the answer seems clear. Miele has $87K in the bank compared to $194 for Klausmeier, who is well liked in her district but taking nothing for granted. There are rumors that Miele might just run for reelection for delegate.
District 42: Baltimore
Sen. Jim Brochin is retiring to run for county executive. The most conservative Democrat in the Senate, Brochin had both a tough primary and general last time around. The improved political climate suggests that Democrats have a 72% probability of holding the seat. Del. Chris West (42B) is running for the Republicans. Democrats have two candidates, Robbie Leonard and Gretchen Manavel. Sources tell me Leonard, a former county party chair, has the advantage with local activists but that Manavel has money and the energy – and would be a stronger candidate.
Not Vulnerable
District 32: Anne Arundel
Republicans think they have a good chance of picking up retiring moderate Sen. Ed DeGrange’s seat. Wrong. Clinton carried the district by 12 and it’s not going to happen barring a massive sea change in the political environment. Del. Pam Beidle is a very strong candidate and will win. Republicans are spinning their wheels here.
Vulnerable Republicans?
There are four seats where Democrats hope to play but will likely fall short.
District 9: Howard
Sen. Gail Bates is the most vulnerable Republican but still holds a seat Trump won by nearly 8. The Carroll County portion of her district will likely save her from going down to defeat, as Howard includes less favorable territory even if it is by far the more Republican portion of the county. Democrats have nevertheless recruited a strong candidate in Katie Hester ready to take advantage of any wave.
District 6: Baltimore
For Democrats, this was a real heartbreaker race in 2014 as Del. John Olszewski, Jr., known to one and all as Johnny O, lost by less than 3% to now Sen. Johnny Ray Salling. Democrats think that Salling didn’t so much win as became the accidental senator due to the hellacious political climate. Though Salling is seen as a lightweight who doesn’t work hard in office or at fundraising – he has just $30K in his campaign account – this was territory Trump carried by 15 points that shifted GOP across the board in 2014 and 2016.
Democrats have recruited a local activist and electrician, Bud Staigerwald, who fits the district well and is strongly backed by Comptroller Peter Franchot. Staigerwald lost a primary for Council District 7 in 2014.
District 34: Harford
Sen. Bob Cassilly represents the more Democratic turf in Harford but it’s still Republican and went for Trump by 11 points. Del. Mary-Dulany James, a strong and well-funded candidate, lost by 14.5% to now Sen. Bob Cassilly. Democrats think that they can take Casilly this time around but it will remain tough. Their ability to take advantage of opportunity will improve substantially if the locally deep-rooted James runs again.
What Do the Virginia Results Suggest for Maryland? Part I
All 100 seats in the Virginia House were up for election in 2017. Looking at the results can give an idea of what might happen in Maryland’s state legislative elections later this year. Using a statistical technique known as logit, I created models to estimate the impact of various factors on the probability of a Democratic victory.
Analysis of the election results indicates, unsurprisingly, that the 2016 results are an extremely powerful predictor of which party won Virginia House seats. Adding other demographic factors to statistical models had little impact.
Looking at the raw results reveals why. In 2016, Clinton beat Trump by 49.7% to 44.4% with 5.9% going to other candidates. Virginia was gerrymandered for the Republicans, so it has a disproportionate share of Trump-leaning seats even taking into account the concentration of Democrats in urban areas.
Republicans won all 47 seats in Virginia where Trump won more than 48.0% of the vote. Clinton won 46.0% or less in these districts.
Democrats won all of the 39 seats where Trump won less than 40.5% of the vote. Clinton received at least 54.0% in these districts. These 39 districts include four Democratic pickups.
That leaves 14 districts where Trump won between 40.5% and 48.0% of the vote. Incumbency didn’t do a lot for Republicans according to either the statistical model or a look at the raw numbers. As the following table reveals, Democrats won roughly the same share of seats with Republicans seeking reelection as open seats.
The sole Democratic incumbent also won reelection. Indeed, no Democrat lost in 2017 but all represented districts that Clinton won with at least 56.0% and Trump received 41.0% or less. Overall, Democrats won 10 of the 14 seats in marginal range. It would have been eleven had the drawing in the tie race gone the other way.
Next up, what do the Virginia results indicate for Maryland Senate races?