Tag Archives: Robbie Leonard

2018 Elections, General Assembly

Your Election Night Senate Scorecard

Earlier tonight, I detailed the list of 24 safe Democratic and 14 safe Republican seats in the General Assembly. Included on that list was any seat that the appropriate party swept in (1) the 2014 gubernatorial election, (2) the 2016 presidential election, and (3) the 2014 state legislative elections.

Sen. Bobby Zirkin (D-11) should really have been included on the safe list, as he enviably has no opponent. Though Hogan won the seat by 14 in 2014, Republicans evidently decided not to take on Zirkin in this seat won by Clinton by 24 in 2016.

That leaves eight vulnerable Democratic seats. Republicans need to net five to gain enough seats to uphold a veto should Larry Hogan win election to a second term tomorrow. Today’s scorecard ranks them from most to least vulnerable:

1. District 42 (OPEN) Likely Republican

This Baltimore County district meanders from the City to the Pennsylvania border. Sen. Jim Brochin (D), the most moderate member of the General Assembly, gave up his seat to run for Baltimore County executive. He lost the Democratic nomination by just a hair to Democrat Johnny Oleszewski.

An astute campaigner, Brochin nevertheless held the seat with just 51.6% in 2014. That Brochin held it at all is a credit to his skills. Hogan won it by 42 points-more than any other seat on this list of vulnerable Democratic seats.

Republican Del. Chris West (R-42B) already represents two-thirds of the district and hopes to move to the Senate. Robbie Leonard, his  opponent, is a former chair of the Baltimore County Democratic Central Committee. It’s hard to see how Leonard wins in a district that Clinton lost narrowly in 2016 and that Hogan will likely take by even more in 2018 than four years ago. But anything is possible if Democrats perform strongly enough tomorrow.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 54% D, 32% R, 13% other.

2. District 8 (Kathy Klausmeier) Toss Up

Though not the most Republican seat on this list, Sen. Kathy Klausmeier is nonetheless the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat running for reelection. She is facing her toughest contest yet as she hopes to fend off Republican Del. Christian Miele.

This east Baltimore County district barely went for Clinton in 2016 just two years after Hogan won it by 36. In many ways, it resembles neighboring District 6, which had long been held by Democrats until it fell to a Republican sweep in 2014 and took down Johnny O’s Senate ambitions with them.

While D6 is 6% more African American than D8, it too has many white voters who find Trump appealing and among whom Hogan is the consensus choice. Miele is a strong candidate with fewer vulnerabilities than other Republican challengers, notwithstanding his odd links to marijuana lobbyist Max Davidson.

Republicans already hold two of the delegate seats. One wonders if any less well attuned Democrats than Sen. Klausmeier and Del. Bromwell would have a shot in a district that seems to be moving away from them. It doesn’t help Democrats that the Jealous campaign doesn’t speak to the concerns of this district’s voters even as Hogan remains quite appealing.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 56% D, 32% R, 12% other.

3. District 38 (Jim Mathias) Toss Up

No Democrat other than Sen. Jim Mathias would even have a prayer in this seat. Trump beat Clinton by 28 points and Hogan defeated Brown by 40 points in this southeastern Eastern Shore district. Republicans took all three of the delegate districts in 2014. So why isn’t Del. Mary Beth Carozza just waltzing into this seat?

Like Larry Hogan, Jim Mathias has his own brand. Neither would have a hope of winning if they were heavily identified with their political party. It also doesn’t hurt that former Ocean City Mayor Mathias has represented all of D38, while Carozza now serves just one-third of it in the House of Delegates.

There are two hugely contrasting trends here. The electorate can only be more favorable to Mathias than in 2014 when Democratic turnout sagged terribly. On the other hand, my bet is Hogan wins by even more than four years ago.

Mathias will always have a target on his back. But he has his own brand and the financial backing needed for his campaign. By all rights, Republicans should win this one but Mathias may well keep them at bay for another four years.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 43% D, 45% R, 12% other.

4. District 3 (Ron Young) Toss Up

In contrast to Klausmeier’s Baltimore County district, Young’s Frederick County district seems to be moving towards the Democrats. Clinton won it by 8 in 2016 and Hogan’s 15 point 2014 win was less impressive than other similar areas.

More Democratic voters keep moving into the area, resulting in the shift that has already turned Frederick from a red Republican bastion into a decidedly purple county. In the most recent Frederick City elections, Democrats convincingly ousted Republicans.

The problem for Democrats here is Young fatigue. A solid member of the Senate, Young has nevertheless been around Frederick politics a long time in a year when experience is seen as code for outdated and untrustworthy by many. His opponent, Craig Giangrande, has no political experience but a lot of cash.

Young won by a bare majority four years ago when he earned a second Senate term. The more congenial composition of the electorate combined with long-term trends ought to help him out even if Hogan is well positioned to pad his margins here. Democrats will nonetheless want to get out every last vote to hold this seat.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 56% D, 28% R, 16% other.

5. District 30 (OPEN) Toss Up

Sen. John Astle (D) is stepping down after an unsuccessful run for mayor of Annapolis. Democrat Sarah Elfreth represents a young but  politically experienced and savvy fresh face. In a year when voters seem interested in new candidates, she combines it with an utterly capable and trustworthy pair of hands.

The district is not easy territory for Democrats. Clinton lost it by 1 in 2016 and Brown fell 29 points short in 2014. Note, however, that this is still 7 points better than in Klausmeier’s district. The likelihood that the electorate will be more congenial in 2018 than 2014 for Democrats will also aid Elfreth.

Elfreth also benefits from her opponent, former Del. Ron George, who is 65 and been around the political block. He won his seat by coming in third place in District 30 in 2006 but came in second when he won reelection in 2010.

Someone edited his Wikipedia page to state that George came in fourth in the Republican gubernatorial primary in 2014. This seems a bit kind since fourth was also last with just 12% of the vote. Even in District 30, he won only 30% of the primary vote.

George’s love for conspiracy theories and Hitler memes isn’t helping his comeback bid. If elections were solely about candidate talent, Elfreth would win this in a slam dunk. As it stands, George is helping Elfreth’s efforts to keep him a has been in a district that ought to be congenial to Republican suasion. Democrats also hope that the shellacking they gave Republicans in the Annapolis elections bodes well for tomorrow.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 53% D, 31% R, 15% other.

6. District 32 (OPEN) Lean Democratic

Del. Pam Beidle has already represented this entire district. A talented candidate well attuned to her district despite being more liberal than the Democrat she seeks to replace, Beidle is the favorite.

Her opponent, Anne Arundel Councilman John Grasso, is term limited off the Council. Like Ron George, John Grasso is social media challenged with a penchant for online nuttery. Unlike George, he is still in office so better known.

District 32 leans far less Republican than the more vulnerable districts higher up on this list. Clinton won it by 12 in 2016, though Hogan carried it by 17 in 2014. Unless Hogan has longer coattails or Grasso proves more formidable than expected, Beidle is the favorite to move from the House to the Senate.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 61% D, 24% R, 15% other.

7. District 12 (OPEN) Likely Democratic

Democratic Nominee Clarence Lam is a first-term delegate seeking to hold the seek being vacated by B&T Chair Ed Kasemeyer. Clinton won this turf in Howard and Baltimore Counties by 17 points in 2016 while Hogan won it by 11 in 2014.

Howard is one the most highly educated places in our highly educated state. Put another way, it’s exactly the sort of place where people are moving away from the Republicans in the era of Donald Trump. Unless Hogan inspires partisan loyalty totally at odds with his carefully cultivated persona, Lam should win this one.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 65% D, 20% R, 15% other.

8. District 27 (Miller) Likely Democratic

This district makes the list for a few reasons. First, it is the final crosspressured district that went for Clinton and Hogan. Interestingly, District 27 seems to have lesser tendencies for ticket splitting based on the relatively small difference between their performances compared to elsewhere in the state. The relatively small share of non-major party early voters (see below) also is suggestive of a more partisan electorate.

Second, Republicans are always tempted by the fantasy of taking out the longest serving legislative leader in American history. But you don’t survive in that position for so long based on dumb luck, so the dream seems likely to remain a dream. Nevertheless, I hope this inspires someone in the Senate President’s office to call and yell at me. I always enjoy hearing from them!

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 66% D, 24% R, 10% other.

Share
2018 Elections

Part II: Democrats Most Likely to Lose 1-2 Senate Seats

Part I looked at the relationship between Trump’s share of the vote and Democratic success in Virginia’s state house elections. Today, I look and see what the Virginia results indicate for Maryland Senate races.

Using a statistical technique called logit, I estimated the probability of Democratic victories in all 47 districts based on the relationship between the share of the vote won by Trump and election outcomes in Virginia.

I also controlled for the presence of Republican incumbents. The statistical model indicated that the relationship is not statistically significant, but the inclusion of this factor results in slightly lower probabilities of success in districts with GOP incumbents. (All Democratic incumbents won and represented seats Clinton won by 15 points, so I cannot similarly control for any advantage held by Democratic incumbents.)

The statistical model suggests that Democrats are most likely to lose 1 or 2 seats in the Senate. A more conservative estimate would be that the Democrats lose 0 to 3 seats. Even a loss of 3 seats would leave Democrats with more than enough to override a Hogan veto should he overcome tough political winds and win reelection.

Which seats are most likely to shift?

Most Vulnerable Democratic Seat

Sen. Jim Mathias defies political gravity in holding Eastern Shore District 38, which gave Trump 61% of the vote – a full 28 points higher than the share received by Clinton. But this former Ocean City Mayor earns it by out hustling his opponents in every way and is a born politician. He beat a delegate in 2014 and will likely face one-term Del. Mary Beth Carozza this year.

District 38 has three subdistricts so Carozza has represented just one-third of the district, including Mathias’s home in Ocean City. She has $114K in the bank compared to $250K for Mathias. Senate President Miller spent big to aid Mathias in 2014 and is prepared to do it again. Hogan and the Republicans have also promised to invest large sums, but the big question is whether Hogan will decide he needs to money for himself.

Despite in theory being a lock for Republicans, this race is a conundrum. Statistically. Mathias should be a dead duck. But the same was true in 2014. Why should Mathias now lose in 2018, expected to be a good Democratic year? Additionally, my model cannot control for any positive impact of Democratic incumbency. I rate it a toss-up.

Vulnerable Democrats?

Recall from Part I that seats that had the potential to go either way in Virginia fell into the range of giving Trump between 40.5% and 48.0% of the vote. Only five Maryland Senate seats fall into this range, all held by Democrats:

Individually, Democrats are likely to win each of the seats. None are particularly encouraging for Republicans. Collectively, the model indicates a 60% chance of losing one of these seats.

District 3: Frederick
As usual, Republicans plan on going after Sen. Ron Young in Frederick. Good luck with that. The model suggests he is a lock, and this ignores that Frederick has been trending Democratic or that Democrats thumped Republicans in last year’s City of Frederick elections to win control of the mayoralty and city council. Trump lost to Clinton by 8 points in this district. Not going to happen.

District 27: Anne Arundel, Calvert and Prince George’s
Similarly, taking down Senate President Mike Miller would be quite a prize for Republicans. The model gives Republicans a 1 percent shot in this district Trump lost by over 5 points. However, it’s virtually impossible to see how the always well-prepared Miller, the longest serving legislative leader in American history, goes down in territory he has won easily for decades.

District 30: Anne Arundel
The next three seats have Republicans salivating but the model indicates that they are underdogs in each. Sen. John Astle’s retirement from his Annapolis-based district, after losing the primary for city’s mayoralty, leaves a vacancy. Even so, Republicans have only a 14% shot at picking up this district.

Democrats are very pleased with their dynamic and politically experienced candidate, Sarah Elfreth. As in Frederick, Democrats gave Republicans a hiding in the 2017 Annapolis municipal elections. Former Del. Ron George has a clear path to the Republican nomination, as Del. Herb McMillan has given the race a pass. George ran for governor in 2014, losing Anne Arundel to Hogan in the primary by a 2-1 margin. However, George has a bank balance of $169K to $50K for Elfreth.

District 8: Baltimore
Republicans seem to think that they have a shot at taking out Sen. Kathy Klausmeier. The model indicates they have a 1 in 6 chance of victory but that doesn’t take into account any incumbency benefit held by Klausmeier. Their candidate, Del. Christian Miele, doesn’t seem too excited about his prospects, sensing that voter anger with Trump will dominate:

“It definitely gives you some heartburn as a Republican when you see what just happened,” said Republican Delegate Christian J. Miele, of Baltimore County, who is challenging Democratic state Sen. Katherine Klausmeier. “We’re all wondering if 2018 is going to be a continued referendum on the president.”

As Trump’s life goal is to be in the headlines, the answer seems clear. Miele has $87K in the bank compared to $194 for Klausmeier, who is well liked in her district but taking nothing for granted. There are rumors that Miele might just run for reelection for delegate.

District 42: Baltimore
Sen. Jim Brochin is retiring to run for county executive. The most conservative Democrat in the Senate, Brochin had both a tough primary and general last time around. The improved political climate suggests that Democrats have a 72% probability of holding the seat. Del. Chris West (42B) is running for the Republicans. Democrats have two candidates, Robbie Leonard and Gretchen Manavel. Sources tell me Leonard, a former county party chair, has the advantage with local activists but that Manavel has money and the energy – and would be a stronger candidate.

Not Vulnerable

District 32: Anne Arundel
Republicans think they have a good chance of picking up retiring moderate Sen. Ed DeGrange’s seat. Wrong. Clinton carried the district by 12 and it’s not going to happen barring a massive sea change in the political environment. Del. Pam Beidle is a very strong candidate and will win. Republicans are spinning their wheels here.

Vulnerable Republicans?

There are four seats where Democrats hope to play but will likely fall short.

District 9: Howard
Sen. Gail Bates is the most vulnerable Republican but still holds a seat Trump won by nearly 8. The Carroll County portion of her district will likely save her from going down to defeat, as Howard includes less favorable territory even if it is by far the more Republican portion of the county. Democrats have nevertheless recruited a strong candidate in Katie Hester ready to take advantage of any wave.

District 6: Baltimore
For Democrats, this was a real heartbreaker race in 2014 as Del. John Olszewski, Jr., known to one and all as Johnny O, lost by less than 3% to now Sen. Johnny Ray Salling. Democrats think that Salling didn’t so much win as became the accidental senator due to the hellacious political climate. Though Salling is seen as a lightweight who doesn’t work hard in office or at fundraising – he has just $30K in his campaign account – this was territory Trump carried by 15 points that shifted GOP across the board in 2014 and 2016.

Democrats have recruited a local activist and electrician, Bud Staigerwald, who fits the district well and is strongly backed by Comptroller Peter Franchot. Staigerwald lost a primary for Council District 7 in 2014.

District 34: Harford
Sen. Bob Cassilly represents the more Democratic turf in Harford but it’s still Republican and went for Trump by 11 points. Del. Mary-Dulany James, a strong and well-funded candidate, lost by 14.5% to now Sen. Bob Cassilly. Democrats think that they can take Casilly this time around but it will remain tough. Their ability to take advantage of opportunity will improve substantially if the locally deep-rooted James runs again.

Share