Courtesy of the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight, a great new political toy that allows you play with shifts in party preference and turnout by different demographic groups and see how it could affect the 2016 presidential election.
FiveThirtyEight has released its gubernatorial forecasts. They say Brown will win by 9.7%–an outcome that would thrill Democrats in an increasingly hot contest.
Nate Silver’s forecast of a solid Brown win is squarely at odds with Charlie Cook’s forecast of a very tight race with an edge for Brown. It’s a great face off between people often regarded as the nation’s top polling aggregator and top political analyst.
We’ll find out who is closer to being right on Tuesday.
From the Cook Political Report:
Maryland: Both parties acknowledge that this contest between Democratic Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown and GOP businessman Larry Hogan has gotten very close in this very blue state. Neither side thought they would be spending seven figures here, particularly this late in the race. Democrats believe that they caught Hogan’s surge, and have had enough time to define their own candidate. We tend to agree and believe that Brown enjoys a slight advantage, but polling and the barrage of television ads from both sides suggest that this belongs in Toss Up.
The Cook Political Report is an extremely highly regarded source of political analysis. His team has had their ear to the ground for decades and is scrupulously nonpartisan. I’m also pleased that Charlie Cook and his family have been longtime residents of the Town of Chevy Chase here in Montgomery County.