Courtesy of the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight, a great new political toy that allows you play with shifts in party preference and turnout by different demographic groups and see how it could affect the 2016 presidential election.
FiveThirtyEight has released its gubernatorial forecasts. They say Brown will win by 9.7%–an outcome that would thrill Democrats in an increasingly hot contest.
Nate Silver’s forecast of a solid Brown win is squarely at odds with Charlie Cook’s forecast of a very tight race with an edge for Brown. It’s a great face off between people often regarded as the nation’s top polling aggregator and top political analyst.
We’ll find out who is closer to being right on Tuesday.