Good News on Maryland Coronavirus Projections

On April 6th, I posted the University of Washington coronavirus projections for our state They have updated their projections and the news, as throughout the country, is very good in terms of reduced cases and demands on our resources. Today, April 18th, was the day they projected to be our peak resource day back on April 6th, so now seems a good time to revisit.

All ICU beds needed and available:

The total number of ICU beds still exceeds the state’s normal capacity based on the pre-corona number of beds and their use. The good news is that the state has expanded the number of beds and the projected peak need has declined from 1224 beds to 430 beds. Still a high rate of use but more manageable.

All hospital beds needed and available:

On April 6th, UW projected that we’d need a maximum of 6443 hospital beds, way more than the state’s normal availability of 3961. The projection has now declined to 2405, which is within the state’s capacity.

All ventilators needed and available.

UW expected that we’d need 1040 ventilators in their April 6th projections. Now, Maryland should need 373.

Projected deaths per day:

The maximum projected deaths per day has declined to 46 pm April 20th, two days from now. Previously, UW had projected a maximum of 138 that on April 19th, tomorrow.

Projected total deaths:

The new projected total of 914 COVID-19 deaths in Maryland is a 61% drop from the projection on April 6th of 2326.

An increasingly vocal minority believes that the much improved projections mean that COVID-19 was much ado about nothing. Except that as epidemiologists have tried to explain, the better the outcome, the less it will appear it was necessary because an improved job will have been done at stopping the infection in its track. The improved projections are due to extensive social distancing, not a random event.