Pagnucco on Trone

The following is by Adam Pagnucco:

The shadow of Total Wine co-owner David Trone has loomed large over CD8 since the day he got in the race.  Rivals fear his apparently limitless self-funding.  His opponents say they are “fighting big bullies” and “under fire from big money.”  Their supporters perceive Trone as a Potomac plutocrat bossing, blustering and buying his way into office.  Laptops and smartphones groan under the weight of his omnipresent digital ads, begging their owners to be shut off until after the election is over.

So who is this guy and why is he running for Congress?

In person, David Trone is a disarming character, far different from what one might expect of a wealthy, Wharton-educated CEO.  He is by turns ebullient, gregarious, intense, and blunt.  He possesses all the nuance of a nose tackle on the goal line.  Argue with him and you will get a roaring laugh and a jabbing index finger.  Trone’s political mastermind, Andrew Friedson, is no doubt trying to smooth out these edges.  Earth to Friedson: it’s not gonna take!

Understanding Trone requires appreciation of two key aspects of his life experience.

  1. He sees himself as an underdog even if others do not.

Trone called himself an underdog as he launched his campaign despite his nearly unlimited self-financing capacity.  This is a recurring theme in his life.  Trone’s father held a number of occupations before buying a farm and ultimately losing it due to alcoholism, leading to divorce and economic hardship for his family.  Later, Trone put himself through Wharton with a combination of loans, selling eggs and running his first beer store when he was not in class.  (Once his chickens caught avian flu and died, Trone concentrated solely on beer.)  These were clear disadvantages compared to Trone’s privileged, blue-blood classmates who aspired to be the next Gordon Gekko.  Trone may be wealthy now, but his mentality remains that of the I’ll-show-you Pennsylvania farm boy who surpassed his supposed betters.  That mentality gives him the edge he uses to win.

  1. He relishes disruption.

In certain localities, the alcohol retail industry behaves like a political-economic oligopoly in which trade associations collude with politicians to draft anti-competitive laws, thus benefiting both of them.  Trone ran into this shortly after he opened his first beer store in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania and began advertising his low prices.  His competitors persuaded the state legislature to outlaw the practice and Trone was arrested.  The law was thrown out when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against a similar law in Rhode Island.  Trone is frequently opposed by native competitors when he attempts to expand into new markets, including Minnesota, Texas and Connecticut.  One local trade association even drafted a handbook on how to compete with him.  A state bill designed to keep him from expanding is now pending in Tennessee.

Trone is detested by his competitors across the nation, and he wears that as a badge of honor.  His business model combining low prices, large selection and highly trained customer service is massively disruptive, forcing his competitors to step up their game or shut down.  Trone’s view of the American political system is shaped by this experience.  Like local alcohol markets, he sees Congress as a place that is dominated by an iron cartel of special interests and venal politicians that ultimately does not deliver on behalf of constituents.  Trone has disrupted the alcohol business, and now he wants to disrupt politics.

How would he do this?  Trone waxes nostalgic for the days when members of Congress formed friendships with each other regardless of party and figured out how to move the ball forward.  He estimates that he has stores in 101 Congressional Districts and engages in significant charitable activity in all of them, thereby creating some commonality with colleagues on either side of the aisle.  Impervious to the constraints of fundraising and party hierarchy, he is not subject to the typical factors that whip House members into line behind their leadership.  Trying to intimidate him would be like trying to stop a rhino with a peashooter, as many competitors have learned to their detriment.  Trone’s beliefs in independence, relationship building, working with the opposite party, negotiation and common interest may seem naïve by today’s standards, but does anyone believe that the perpetual partisan warfare now in Congress benefits the country?

Trone is vulnerable on the issue of money and political influence.  Trone the businessman frequently hires lobbyists and makes political contributions to battle his competitors, who of course do the exact same things.  A notable example is in Connecticut, where he is trying to throw out a state law that sets minimum prices for alcohol.  (Can there be anything more odious to consumers?)  Trone the candidate takes credit for helping consumers in his mail, but decries the use of lobbyists and political contributions which he himself has employed as a businessman.  Trone declares on his website without a trace of irony, “I have learned firsthand the problems with political donations.”  We bet he has!  Trone’s opponents are sure to accuse him of wanting to have this issue both ways and he needs a convincing comeback to use in his defense.

In the eyes of the local political establishment, perhaps the most disquieting aspect of Trone is that he has defied the customary ways of moving up in MoCo politics.  Most people who aspire to elected office here rise up through the party precinct structure, the civic community, county advisory committees and/or political-governmental staff positions.  They go to event after event, network with the similarly ambitious, defer to those who require it and go for smaller positions before trying for bigger ones.  Congress is regarded as at or near the top of the heap.  Trone the disrupter eschews all of this, preferring to spend millions on TV and mail rather than kissing political rings.  A not insignificant portion of anti-Trone sentiment from local Democratic activists derives from his failure to pay his dues.  “You can’t do that!” they say.  But David Trone does what he wants and it has been that way ever since he was a young man, selling eggs and dreaming of better things.

David Trone has disrupted the alcohol business.  He has disrupted the CD8 race.  Will he get a chance to disrupt Congress?  That’s up to you, the voters, to decide.

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Senate Votes $15 Million in Private School Vouchers

The Maryland Senate tacked in a conservative direction last week when it voted 25-18 to allow corporations to write off their taxes 60% of donations to authorized private school voucher programs. The Department of Commerce can award up to $15 million in credits to qualifying businesses per year.

The Department of Legislative Services estimates that it will cost an additional $140,355 to implement the program and then $108,400 annually to administer it beyond the ongoing $15 million in revenue lost to the State’s General Fund.

Democrats Split

All Senate Republicans voted for the bill. Among Democrats, 19 voted against the bill while 11 supported the legislation. Democrats who voted for the bill are:

Miller (D-27, Prince George’s, Charles and Calvert)
Astle (D-30, Anne Arundel)
Brochin (D-42, Baltimore County)
Currie (D-25, Prince George’s)
DeGrange (D-32, Anne Arundel)
Mathias (D-38, Somerset, Worcester and Wicomico)
McFadden (D-45, Baltimore City)
Middleton (D-28, Charles)
Muse (D-26, Prince George’s)
Peters (D-23, Prince George’s)
Zirkin (D-11, Baltimore County)

The bill is supported by Governor Larry Hogan and Senate President Mike Miller. The Maryland State Education Association (MSEA) strongly opposes it.

Who Will Get the Extra Funding?

The short answer is not the public schools. MSEA also points out that the program allows corporations, rather than parents or school boards, to decide which schools get the donations. It remains unclear whether the money will allow more poor kids to attend private schools, as advocates claim, or help subsidize kids who already attend them at the expense of public schools.

At this point, the bill’s fate is up to the House of Delegates.

 

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Politics After the Gazette, Part IV

This post concludes this week’s series by Adam Pagnucco:

For politicians, operatives, advocates and basically everyone seeking to get out a message, the new era without abundant mainstream media has both good news and bad news.  Let’s start with the latter.

The Bad News: You have to work a lot harder to get your message out and be noticed.

For those of you who long for the days when legions of press would show up to hear about your new office furniture, those days are forever gone.  Consider one of the most infamous figures in recent Montgomery County political history: Ruthann Aron.  The trials of this former politician and planning board member who was accused of trying to hire a hit man to kill her husband transfixed the County in the late 1990s.  Recently, Aron called a press conference to trot out her new book in which she alleges betrayal by her defense lawyer.  Only one reporter from Bethesda Magazine showed up.  Horrified, Aron squealed, “Where’s the Associated Press, where’s The Washington Post?”

There are 188 members of the General Assembly and many more city, county and municipal elected officials in Maryland.  In its current shriveled condition, the mainstream media might have fewer than a dozen reporters who regularly cover government and politics in the entire state.  There simply aren’t enough reporters to go around.  Unless they are doing something extraordinarily good or extraordinarily bad, elected officials below the statewide or executive levels are unlikely to get much attention from the mainstream press unless they work hard to get it.

The Good News: You have more control over the content of your message and who receives it.

For those elected officials, operatives and candidates who are prepared for the new world, the absence of mainstream media is not so much a problem as it is an opportunity.  An unprecedented number of tools are now available for direct communication with the public: email, Twitter, Facebook, blogging and digital ads, to name a few.  Many of these tools can be targeted to very specific audiences.  None of this was possible fifteen years ago when politicians had to rely on newspaper reporters to get out news about their activities.

The gatekeepers to the public are almost gone.  In a way, it has never been a better time to be a politician.

The key to truly excelling in this new environment is to understand how the remnants of the old regime and the tools of the new world interact.  The old regime was top-down: politicians and the press at the top sending news down to the public at the bottom.  The new system is more organic, interrelated and even amoebic in form.  Everything affects everything else.  There is little structure.  Unpredictability is the rule.  What used to be big might have little impact now.  What used to be small can become big VERY quickly.

Consider the following alternative scenarios for how information can flow in this new world.

  1. An article about Politician A and an issue he is working on shows up on Bethesda Magazine’s website. It circulates on Facebook and Twitter.  Politician A blast emails it and gets an advocacy group to do the same, which gets the attention of the reporter.  This generates a follow-up in Bethesda Magazine.  A gets a two-fer.
  1. Politician B is working on another issue but can’t get any reporters to pay attention to it. So B takes out a Facebook ad on the issue and gets hundreds of likes and dozens of supportive comments.  A blogger also covers it and B tweets and reposts it.  B goes back to the reporters and says, “See?  It’s hot!”  Stories are written and reposted on Facebook with more ads to beef them up.  Now the issue is starting to move – and so is B.
  1. Advocacy Group X is all over Issue Z, starting up an online petition and Facebook page to push it. Politician C finds out and gets on board.  Boom – Group X lets their supporters know that C is their hero, and C gets both supportive Facebook posts and good press.  Other politicians get jealous and jump in to grab pieces of the pie.
  1. A group of politicians decides to team up against a common rival. The rival has a larger social media presence and official communications staff than any one of them.  But the group has regional diversity, many Twitter and Facebook followers between them, several blast email lists and a willingness to coordinate.  Each of them puts up social media posts that take on the common enemy.  The rest of the group then retweets and reposts, rotating between lead and supporting roles.  Coordinated blast emails carrying the content go out.  The group members take turns buying Facebook ads and digital ads promoting their statements.  Particular issues get hashtags.  Helpful activists, party sites and other groups pitch in and spread the messages even further.  The official media picks up on it and spotlights the campaign, amplifying it further.  Soon enough, the T-Rex is surrounded by velociraptors and the pack closes in.

Dealing with reporters is still necessary since they haven’t (yet) entirely disappeared.  But success in the new era depends on integrating the old tools with the new, amplifying the effects of both and building communication scale.  Those who master these arts will inherit the new world.  Those who don’t will fade away with the old, just like the ill-fated T-Rex above.

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Politics After the Gazette, Part III

What are the consequences of the disappearance of the Gazette and much of the local media?  Here are a few.

1. An Information Vacuum

This is the most direct and obvious consequence: there are fewer objective news stories produced about state and local government.  Many things happen now without any public attention.  That’s a challenge for both elected officials and the public.  Here are a few comments from our sources about this new era of media darkness.

Elected official: “I think the lack of local coverage creates a huge disconnect between state and local elected officials/government and the governed.  It is particularly problematic in our area where there is such attention paid to the federal government.  I believe the lack of coverage is affecting voter turnout because people don’t know who their councilmembers or legislators are or what they do, so they don’t care enough to vote.  It is also difficult to publicize good initiatives or issues with no press coverage.”

Elected official: “The most immediate impact is the simple fact that our constituents, particularly the less social media savvy folks, simply don’t know what’s going on in Annapolis and what we’re doing here as their elected representatives, good and bad.  This is particularly problematic in the DC media market. The Sun still has some meaningful coverage of Annapolis, the Post does not.  The Gazette was helpful in bridging that gap to some extent. If folks don’t even know what we’re working on, the ability to have any meaningful political dialogue with the community takes a big hit.”

Elected official: “An already opaque legislative process is becoming even harder to follow. To be sure, The Baltimore Sun still provides political coverage, and websites like Bethesda Magazine and Maryland Reporter are filling some of the void. Even so, there are fewer media eyes on Annapolis these days, and so lots of important legislation dies without any discussion and bad legislation advances without scrutiny. This also means that lobbyists who are paid to closely follow legislative activities have new advantages, especially if the bills they are working on are relatively low key. The upshot is that all this puts a premium on legislators directly talking to constituents through social media and other means.”

Advocate: “The State Highway Administration recently pulled the RFP for the construction of the Watkins Mill Interchange. This is a road project that has been on the books and fully funded for many years and the number one road priority of the County. This would have been front page news for the Gazette and at least one letter to the editor.”

2. Less Accountability

With fewer stories produced, there are fewer opportunities for voters to read about eyebrow-raising activities by public servants.  Stories like the Gazette’s report on tax liens against County Council Members, an allegedly secret contract circulated inside the council and a questionable, high salary job in county government are less likely to be written.  What’s going on now that we don’t know about?

3. The Rise of Government Media

The Montgomery County Government now spends over $5 million a year on County Cable Montgomery (CCM), its in-house cable channel, and Montgomery Community Media (MCM), a non-profit providing public cable access.  CCM’s full-time equivalent employee count (15.9) likely exceeds the size of Bethesda Magazine’s reporting staff.  Both of these outlets provide a mix of public information and what are essentially public relations pieces for county elected officials.  Neither of them would dare to undertake the investigative reporting described above for fear of funding cuts.  While they provide some useful information to the public, they are no substitute for an independent press.

4. Falling Voter Turnout

Voter turnout declined in MoCo gubernatorial general elections in both 2010 and 2014.  Turnout fell in the primaries too, from 138,914 in 2006 to 113,173 in 2010 to 110,602 in 2014.  The latter year had contested primaries for both Governor and Executive.

Could declining state and local news coverage be contributing to this?  There are probably several factors responsible, including increasingly targeted election campaigns.  But if voters don’t know their elected officials, don’t know what they’re doing and don’t know their rivals, they are going to be less likely to show up at election time.  Or if all they hear are negative things spread through social media and attack websites, they could react by passing term limits.

5. It Might Not Be All Bad

One journalist who covered the county many years ago told us this.

“Hmmm … I guess it could go either way: 1. There’s a reason it’s called the fourth estate. The media is there to keep politicians accountable and make sure they are being truthful, etc. 2. Without all of the grandstanding and manipulation of the media that I witnessed in MoCo, things may actually run more efficiently!”

And you thought we were spreading doom and gloom!

We’ll discuss how to adapt to this new world in Part Four.

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Hogan’s Think Tank Says It’s Time to Shut Metro

In the wake of yesterday’s blue skies Metro shutdown, the Maryland Public Policy Institute says it’s time to “end Metrorail”:

The closure will prompt yet another round of calls for increased government funding of the system. But instead of forcing federal, Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. taxpayers—most of whom scarcely use the rail system—to further subsidize Metro and its riders, public leaders should be discussing how to wind down and ultimately close the failed transit system. . . .

Dauntingly, Metrorail is about to face enormous new expenses. The core of the system is reaching the end of its 40-year functional life. WMATA officials can try to nurse it along, but that will be costly and riders will face many more disruptions like today; ultimately, costly and environmentally damaging reconstruction will be needed. And after all that expense, the system will still be a high-cost, low-capacity, inflexible failure.

The Maryland Public Policy Institute is the think tank arm of the Hogan administration with Hogan serving as an Emeritus Director of the group along with former Gov. Bob Ehrlich. Hogan’s brain trust proposes that we shut Metro even as Hogan moves forward to build the Purple Line to connect its defunct branches.

Beyond its modest proposal, the piece raises the issue of how Hogan plans to help fix Metro and to cover the State’s share of the ever increasing costs of fixing its aging and ailing infrastructure. So far, the Governor and the General Assembly, as well as Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties, have been silent on this question.

This lack of direction continues even as riders long ago grew tired of the decline of the system with no sign of management or leadership able to address the serious problems. The Purple Line increases the pressure, as its commits the State to a large but ultimately unknowable sum of money (estimated at $5.6 billion). Conveniently, the bill comes due only after Hogan has long skedaddled out of the Governor’s chair.

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Politics After the Gazette, Part II

The following post is by Adam Pagnucco:

When I used to work for a Montgomery County Council Member, there were three beat reporters on county government – one each for the Post, the Gazette and the Examiner.  They were competitors.  Each wanted to scoop the others.  One of them would glance at another’s laptop at the press table to see what the competitor was writing – an act that was decidedly unwelcome!  I dealt with them all.  And now the Gazette and the Examiner are gone.

Bill Turque of the Washington Post is the sole survivor.  Turque is an experienced pro who is respected and feared by those he covers.  Recent articles of his that had significant impact include one exposing an operative connected to the county employees union as the source of a website targeting a Council Member and one about campaign finance late in the 2014 election season.  But as skilled as Turque is, there is only one of him.  Fifteen years ago, the Post assigned multiple reporters to cover various aspects of Montgomery County.

Bethesda Magazine is the other outlet that regularly covers the county.  Lou Peck is a veteran political reporter who writes highly detailed articles about local elections.  Andrew Metcalf and Aaron Kraut are prolific local reporters.  Despite its name, Bethesda Magazine covers subjects in many parts of the county.  Its close attention to the county’s Department of Liquor Control has been outstanding.  But let’s remember that the Gazette used to have dozens of reporters in and around the County and Bethesda Magazine does not have that kind of scale.

That’s about it.  WTOP has occasional local coverage, though they are a regional outlet.  Local papers like the Sentinel and Takoma Voice have small audiences.  Patch came and went quickly.  MarylandReporter offers statehouse reporting but not much in-county coverage.  Center Maryland has the great columnist Josh Kurtz but no staff reporters.  The Sun does not pay much attention to Montgomery or Prince George’s Counties.  The local TV stations focus more on crime and weather than on detailed reporting of state and local governments.

Then there are the blogs.  Whatever you think of them, there are several features that distinguish them from mainstream news outlets.  1.  They tend not to have clear and consistent standards for publishing.  2.  Most are driven by opinions, sometimes with facts to back them up and sometimes not.  3.  Many posts are derived from mainstream news articles, which act as original sources of content.  4.  None of them have the reach of news sources like the Gazette, which once dropped hundreds of thousands of papers in front of doors around the region.

The hierarchy of the past is gone.  Yes, Bill Turque and Bethesda Magazine are probably at the top of the heap – but there is no heap.  There are no longer dozens of reporters patrolling the county for stories on civic events, restaurant openings and closings, local sports, transportation projects, school programs, politics or anything else.

We will examine what that means for state and local politics in Part Three.

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Politics After the Gazette, Part I

The following post is by Adam Pagnucco:

Quick.  Name a key difference among the following local congressional races.  Connie Morella vs Stewart Bainum.  Chris Van Hollen vs Mark Shriver.  Connie Morella vs Chris Van Hollen.  Al Wynn vs Donna Edwards.  And the current races in Congressional Districts 4 and 8.

The latter two are the only ones not covered by the Gazette, because the Gazette no longer exists.

The Gazette has been gone since the Washington Post, its parent company, killed it in June 2015.  It’s worth remembering what it was in its heyday.  The Post’s 2001 annual report summarizes how extensive its operation was in the time of Josh Kurtz, its statehouse bureau and its paid spin-off, the Gazette of Politics and Business.

The Company’s Gazette Newspapers, Inc. subsidiary publishes one paid-circulation and 35 controlled-circulation weekly community newspapers (collectively known as The Gazette Newspapers) in Montgomery and Frederick Counties and parts of Prince George’s, Carroll, Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, Maryland. During 2000 The Gazette Newspapers had an aggregate average weekly circulation of approximately 554,000 copies. This subsidiary also produces 11 military newspapers (most of which are weekly) under agreements where editorial material is supplied by local military bases; in 2000 these newspapers had a combined average circulation of over 200,000 copies. The Gazette Newspapers have approximately 125 editors, reporters and photographers on their combined staffs. The Gazette Newspapers, Inc. also operates a commercial printing business in Montgomery County, Maryland.

That same year, the Post bought eight community newspapers in Prince George’s, Charles, Calvert and St. Mary’s Counties and consolidated them into Southern Maryland Newspapers.  Those papers added 40 employees and tens of thousands of copies to the Post’s local media empire.

But a decade ago, financial pressures led the Post to start trimming the Gazette.  The newspaper endured several rounds of layoffs.  It withdrew from Howard, Carroll, Anne Arundel and Frederick.  It ended its paid Gazette of Politics and Business, consolidated local editions, dropped most of its statehouse coverage and dismissed its political columnists.  By the time the paper finally shut down, it was down to just twelve reporters and two photographers.

Twenty years ago, the Gazette was one component of a large, official local media.  Montgomery County had its own daily newspaper (the Journal).  The statehouse was jammed with four full-time reporters from the Sun, three full-time reporters from the Post and countless more reporters from local papers.  The Montgomery County Council building had a press bullpen in which legendary Doug Duncan operative Jerry Pasternak would trade tips with reporters over games of darts.  Print drove television and radio coverage.  Reporters had a career path leading from small local outlets to medium newspapers to the big guys, the Sun and the Post.  An official network of veteran reporters and long-time editors would judge what was newsworthy, and stories that didn’t pass muster went unreported.  There was no other way for them to get out.  But those that did were circulated to hundreds of thousands of readers, viewers – and voters.

Almost all of that is now gone.  The Gazette was one of the last vestiges of the old world.

What is left?  And how does that affect local politics and government?  We’ll have more in Part Two.

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Matthews Oversaw Donation of Over $700,000 to Republicans

Kathleen Matthews received a lot of political heat for her personal donation of $2,600. But yesterday the Washington Post highlighted that she oversaw the donation of over $700,000 to Republican candidates in her role as overseeing Marriott International’s PAC:

At Marriott Matthews oversaw the company’s political action committee, which contributed more than $1.4 million to candidates between 2008 and 2014, including nearly $700,000 to Republicans, according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.

Matthews tried unconvincingly to distance herself from the many donations to Republicans:

Matthews said in an interview last week that Marriott employees were free to designate which party they wanted to receive their money. She also said decisions about specific contributions were made by lobbyists who reported to her.

As the lobbyists reported to Matthews, she retained responsibility for the donation decisions. Her explanation makes it look like she is attempting to push off that responsibility on to her subordinates.

So who received the donations from Marriott? Based on information from the Center for Responsive Politics, here are the highlights:

2014 Cycle Total to Republicans: $148,500

Total to House Republicans: $92,000

  • John Boehner: $5,000
  • Eric Cantor: $5,000
  • Renee Ellmers: $2,500
  • Andy Harris: $1,000
  • Kevin McCarthy: $7,500
  • Paul Ryan: $5,000

Total to Senate Republicans: $56,500

  • Roy Blunt: $7,500
  • Joni Ernst: $1,000
  • Mitch McConnell: $7,500
  • Marco Rubio: $2,500

2012 Cycle Total to Republicans: $160,400

Total to House Republicans: $83,900

  • John Boehner: $5,000
  • Eric Cantor; $5,000
  • Darrell Issa: $1,000
  • Kevin McCarthy: $2,500
  • Paul Ryan: $2,500

Total to Senate Republicans: $76,500

  • Scott Brown: $5,000
  • Mitch McConnell: $2,500

2010 Cycle Total to Republicans: $152,700

Total to House Republicans: $56,200

  • John Boehner: $5,000
  • Eric Cantor; $4,500
  • Darrell Issa: $1,000
  • Kevin McCarthy: $2,000
  • Paul Ryan: $2,500

Total to Senate Republicans: $96,500

  • Roy Blunt: $10,000
  • Scott Brown: $5,000
  • Carly Fiorina: $5,000
  • John McCain: $2,500
  • Marco Rubio: $5,000
  • Pat Toomey: $7,500

2008 Cycle Total to Republicans: $220,300

Total to House Republicans: $144,800

  • Roy Blunt: $6,500
  • John Boehner: $5,000
  • Eric Cantor; $5,000
  • Paul Ryan: $1,000

Total to Senate Republicans: $75,500

  • Mitch McConnell: $7,000
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Hogan’s Empire

I remain grateful to Adam Pagnucco for writing so many guest posts while I am out of town. Hello from Uruguay.

Governor Larry Hogan and the General Assembly Democrats are debating a lot of issues these days, including transportation projects, spending mandates, voting rights for people on parole and gerrymandering. Regardless of who’s right or who’s wrong, one thing can be said for sure: many people are only hearing one side of the argument. And that side belongs to the Governor.

Policy debates in Annapolis, and their political implications, are increasingly occurring in the context of a shrunken mainstream media. The Sun and the Post have dramatically cut back on their statehouse coverage. The Gazette is no more. The Daily Record is hidden behind an expensive paywall. Many local outlets don’t have staff in Annapolis. The TV and radio stations offer sporadic statehouse coverage. Maryland Reporter and the blogs have small audiences. Most people who pay close attention to these remaining news sources are firmly in one partisan camp or the other. Those people who pay only casual attention – a much larger group – are getting less content than ever.

The Governor and his supporters have adroitly prepared for this world by constructing a huge social media empire. They don’t have to worry about declining news coverage – they can and do cover themselves. Like his predecessors, the Governor has an official communications operation. But he also has Change Maryland, a policy/politics/PR entity started by the Governor in 2011 that has since morphed into his campaign organization. And he benefits from Red Maryland, a conservative blog started a decade ago that serves as a discussion platform for the ideas and politics of the right. The Democrats have no counterpart for either group.

Change Maryland and the Governor together rule the state’s social media, or at least that portion of it which is dedicated to state and local politics. Following are their Facebook likes and Twitter followers on March 9, as well as those of the Democrats and potential gubernatorial rivals.

Facebook Likes, March 9, 2016
Change Maryland: 262,559
Larry Hogan: 113,988
Heather Mizeur: 23,168
Anthony Brown: 17,659
Ken Ulman: 8,959
Doug Gansler: 8,949
Maryland Republican Party: 8,442
Maryland Democratic Party: 8,059
Peter Franchot: 7,692
John Sarbanes: 5,665
Maryland Senate Democrats: 5,169
John Delaney: 4,424
Brian Frosh: 3,994
Maryland Senate Republican Slate: 3,821
Mike Miller: 2,858
Kevin Kamenetz: 2,297
Rushern Baker: 1,915
Maryland House Republican Caucus: 1,748
Young Democrats of Maryland: 1,677
Mike Busch: 1,633
Maryland Young Republicans: 1,135
Maryland House Dems: 248

Twitter Followers, March 9, 2016
Larry Hogan: 18,830
Ken Ulman: 8,902
Rushern Baker: 8,506
Maryland Democratic Party: 8,341
Maryland Republican Party: 7,936
Heather Mizeur: 7,228
Peter Franchot: 6,846
Change Maryland: 6,796
Doug Gansler: 6,529
Anthony Brown: 3,640
Brian Frosh: 3,093
Young Democrats of Maryland: 2,235
John Sarbanes: 2,037
Kevin Kamenetz: 1,492
Maryland Young Republicans: 1,490
John Delaney: 1,112
Maryland Senate GOP: 1,107

The Governor’s advantage on Twitter is substantial, but not insurmountable. His advantage on Facebook over the Democrats is astounding. His Facebook page and Change Maryland’s page combined have a better than 40-1 edge on the state Democrats and a more than 80-1 advantage over potential rivals like Congressman John Delaney, Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz and Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker. And as for how he compares to General Assembly Democrats…? There is no comparison. Not. At. All.

In an era of disappearing statehouse coverage by the mainstream media, the Governor’s social media empire dominates policy debates, at least in the eyes of the public, and gives him a tremendous political edge. His positions on the budget, transportation, criminal justice, taxes and more are seen by MANY, MANY more people than those of the Democrats. Low cost Facebook ads can quickly spread them to 100,000 people or more. (With his campaign fundraising, he can easily afford them.) And while Democratic state legislators may have been outraged by his “spring break” remarks, how many people saw their hashtag rebuttals? Almost certainly far fewer than those who saw the Governor’s original statements.

Much attention has been paid to the Governor’s favorable poll ratings, which he trumpets non-stop through his communication outlets. That may or may not be warranted because polls go up and down, sometimes because of factors outside of a politician’s control. But to the extent that the Governor’s poll results are meaningful, consider this.

Could they be due in part to the fact that much of the public is getting only one side of the story, and that side is not the one told by the Democrats?

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MoCo Dems Who Don’t Vote, Part Four

Today, I am pleased to present a guest post by Adam Pagnucco:

If Montgomery County Democrats want to substantially increase their turnout in the 2018 election, they are going to have to reach out to Democratic non-voters who are disproportionately young, Latino, African American, low income and who live far from the party’s traditional Downcounty strongholds.

How can that be done?

First, this is not a job that can be entrusted to candidates alone.  Candidates are in the business of winning elections, and for them, that means targeting regular voters.  That’s perfectly understandable.  Asking candidates to do things that don’t maximize their chances to win is a non-starter.  So this is a job for the party.

Montgomery County’s Democratic Party is in some ways the envy of the rest of the state.  It is large and well-financed.  It can draw on lots of volunteers and activists, many of whom have substantial campaign experience.  It has a system of precinct officials that most county parties don’t have.  But in recent years, it has presided over declining turnout.  Like any organization, even successful ones, the party can improve.  Here’s how.

1. Buy an email list and use it.

At the moment, the party does not have an extensive email list.  It needs one – badly.  The party should purchase an email list of regular voters – including unaffiliated ones – and start pumping out regular blasts.  The state party does this and the county party should start doing it too.  But in addition to the frequent attacks on the GOP that appear in state party emails, the county party can also celebrate the successes of local government.  The Montgomery County Council regularly passes progressive legislation, often on unanimous votes, and the County Executive leads a progressive administration.  The declining local media misses out on a lot of these things, so the party should step in and spread the word.

2. Get stronger on social media.

The county party’s Facebook page needs to be bolder and more topical.  It should be aggressive about going after the GOP and it should also trumpet Democratic successes.  Ads should be used to spread particularly good posts and to build the like count.

3. Contact non-voters and new voters directly.

Years ago, before the spread of e-recruitment, the party had a system for welcoming new voters.  That system should be reinstated and updated.  The party can use its precinct officials to reach out to non-voters and new voters on the ground.  One way would be to send precinct officials lists of all of these voters and have them circulate an online survey through flyers in their neighborhoods.  Do they vote?  If not, why?  Is it lack of information?  Are there important issues they want addressed?  Ask them to sign up for the email list and Facebook page to stay in touch with the party.

4. Spotlight new Democrats.

Non-voters and new voters don’t look like Mike Miller or Mike Busch.  They look like many young, new Democratic state legislators like Senator Craig Zucker and Delegates Eric Luedtke, David Fraser-Hidalgo, Ariana Kelly, Marc Korman, Marice Morales, David Moon, Will Smith, Pam Queen and Shane Robinson.  (And those are just the ones who first took office in 2010 or later.)  Let new Democrats like these do guest communications in the blast emails and also on a county party blog.  Then spread them through Facebook and Twitter.

5. Get rid of the sample ballot.

The above items will cost money, and a good place to get it is by getting rid of the sample ballot.  This drab, antiquated pamphlet mailed to all Democrats before the general election looks worse than a typical coupon book and is probably discarded promptly by most recipients.  The party spends tens of thousands on printing and mailing it every cycle.  Besides causing headaches for no good reason, the sample ballot distracts from the party’s central duties because it is the vehicle for communicating party positions on ballot questions, and that can cause problems.

One example was the party’s decision to go against labor on the police effects bargaining ballot question in 2012.  Regardless of who was right or wrong, the decision caused labor to picket the party’s spring fundraiser and resulted in wholesale turnover on the party’s central committee.  The party’s primary duty is to market its candidates and their successes.  It should not concentrate on making policy decisions outside of its stated platform; those should be left to elected officials.

The sample ballot has been around for a long time and it has its defenders, but party strategists need to ask themselves the following question.  How many email addresses, Facebook ads, staff hours and other voter touches can be purchased by freeing up money from the sample ballot?  And what mix of all of these factors generates the greatest cost effectiveness for outreach?

If all of these things are done, will that guarantee higher turnout among MoCo Dems who currently don’t vote in 2018?  Well, there are few guarantees in politics, folks.  But I will guarantee this: if none of these things are done, turnout will not improve and Governor Larry Hogan will get a second term.

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