Marijuana

Will Vallario Kill Marijuana Decriminalization?

Vallario

The General Assembly session is rapidly coming to a close and the House Judiciary Committee may kill efforts to decriminalize the possession of small amounts of marijuana. Chairman Joe Vallario is leading the effort to kill the bill:

The Senate passed the bill by a 36-8 vote earlier this year. Vallario opposed the bill last year and continues to be the major hurdle to a full vote in the House of Delegates. The ACLU, in its statement, said Vallario “has been lobbying his committee members to reject the measure in 2014.”

Vice Chair Kathleen Dumais is also deeply ambivalent about the bill:

In an interview last week, Dumais expressed doubt for the bill’s prospects, saying she “is not so sure it’s the right  message to send to young people.”

“I’m just not ready to make that leap,” Dumais said. “My committee has never been real comfortable with it and to be honest I’m not that comfortable with it. Maybe there’s something we can do with it. We haven’t had a full discussion because it hasn’t come up for a vote yet.

“I don’t think it’s going to move this year but I could be wrong,” Dumais said.

The ACLU released results from a poll showing strong support for the Senate bill in their two districts as well as Del. Frank Conaway as part of an effort to build pressure for the bill’s passage. You can see the full results in .pdf form here:

MD-ACLU Marijuana Decriminalization Poll

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transgender rights

Parrott Skewered by Hometown Press

From the Hagerstown Herald Mail:

As a rule, I try to stay away from bathroom humor, but sometimes the bathroom must go to Mohammed, even if Mohammed doesn’t go to the bathroom.

We should have seen this coming, truth be told. Republicans already want to get into the bedroom, but now they want to get into the bathroom as well. And the closet. And the library. Really, they’re about a pantry away from taking over the whole house.

So, in his tireless quest to fulfill his campaign promise of bringing jobs to Washington County, Del. Neil Parrott is now on a two-pronged mission to roust pornography from libraries and defeat transgender-equality legislation, which he believes will touch off an epidemic of cross-dressing men entering women’s restrooms.

Read the whole for a good laugh on April Fools Day that is unfortunately no joke.

 

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Carroll County, Prayer

Robin Frazier Praying for Reelection in Carroll

Carroll County Commissioner Robin Frazier opened a meeting of the Commission with a prayer invoking Jesus Christ despite a federal court order. She views the order as a wrongly issued violation of her First Amendment rights. Interestingly, two of Frazier’s colleagues were not present based on the video.

Frazier is “willing to go to jail” and said that America will soon be “all the way to Communism if we don’t start standing up and saying no.” She lumped the anti-prayer ruling with plots to take away guns, palm scan her children, and take away property rights through Plan Maryland. No wonder two of her colleagues skipped.

Frazier represents Council District 1 along the Pennsylvania border. She served a previous term on the Commission prior to four years in the Ehrlich Administration.

Remembering the time when Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore erected a surprise monument to the Ten Commandments, I couldn’t help but think she must be running for something. In Moore’s case, he ran for governor unsuccessfully at the next election after being removed from office.

And sure enough, Frazier has three challengers in this year’s primary for reelection: Cynthia Foley, Tina Mawhinney, and Stephen Wantz. The first two seem like less promising challengers with no money in their campaign accounts. Foley is a former unsuccessful candidate for the Board of Education. Mawhinney ran as a Democrat in 2010 and lost with just 24%. (If you have reason to believe otherwise, let me know.)

However, Wantz poses a serious threat. At the time of the January campaign finance filing, Wantz had $6100 in his campaign account compared to $3500 for Frazier. Moreover, she won the primary with only 41% in 2010, rather weak for someone who held the seat previously and with connections to a Republican governor.

Wantz has been very active in Carroll County both fighting fires and in emergency ambulance services. Not a bad record for a prospective candidate. In contrast, Frazier tweets about the “Bathroom Bill” and Second Amendment rights.

Frazier also chose to sing part of the 2014 State of the County address, a moment fortunately saved for posterity (check out around 3:20):

In comparison, Wantz seems less interested in grandstanding but actually focusing on Carroll County’s real issues based on his campaign video. A welcome approach from candidates of either party in any county in the State.

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District 20, House of Delegates

D20 Delegate Race Analysis

D20

District 20’s two open seat primary for Delegate is possibly the most talked about state legislative primary in Maryland this year. The large field has settled into a four candidate top tier.

First, there is David Moon–a long time political operative, well-read state politics blogger and attorney. He has received endorsements from MCEA and the LCV. He had over $50,000 on hand for his January Report. His progressive politics fit the district well and he is presently the best bet to capture one of the two open seats. He has the best, most professionally run campaign of the bunch.

Then there is Will Jawando–a federal lobbyist, former Capitol Hill staffer and Obama appointee. He is also an attorney. Jawando had raised over $40,000 by January. While his fundraising has drastically underperformed expectations, he still has more non self-financed money than anyone else in the race. His lack of local ties and infrastructure hurts him with some activists. But precinct chairs make up a tiny percentage of Democratic primary voters, which many people seem to forget sometimes.

There is also Will Smith, an attorney, Homeland Security consultant and Obama appointee. He has a strong resume and has gotten endorsements from MCEA, the LCV and the Sierra Club. Smith has burned half of his $52,000 haul, leaving him with a paltry $28,000 cash on hand. This high burn rate is the sign of a badly mismanaged campaign. In the year before an election, candidates should be conserving their cash in order to maximize spending on paid communications in the weeks leading up to Election Day. From fundraising to field to communications to political, I have yet to hear anything positive about Will’s operation.

Rounding out the top tier is Jonathan Shurberg, a trial lawyer dogged by substantial ethical issues. His law license was (until recently) suspended over misappropriation of client funds. He has had multiple tax liens against his properties and has been sued for legal malpractice. Nevertheless, Shurberg does have access to substantial sums of money (my spies tell me they spring from a family oil and gas fortune). However, the campaign has burned through half of the initial $125,000 he loaned his campaign. Shurberg has three people on his staff–insane for a Maryland legislative race. He also has a litany of consultants on the payroll–some credible, some dubious. Lots of money has also gone to event sponsorships and other activities that do little to communicate his message to voters. The campaign has gotten universally bad reviews around the county. His ethical baggage and burn rate would normally doom his campaign. But if he keeps writing himself the checks, it’s possible he can pull it off.

There are a variety of other candidates: D’Juan Hopewell (an anti hunger advocate), Justin Chappell (a former Tom Harkin staffer and disability rights activist), Darian Unger (Howard University academic, volunteer firefighter and civic activist) and George Zokle (a litigation attorney). All would be threats in other districts but it would require a real shake up for any of them to break through in D20 on June 24th.

Sheila Hixson is a lock for reelection.

Ratings: Safe Hixson, Lean Moon, and Toss Up between Shurberg, Jawando and Smith for the third seat.

Note: Organization of a slate by popular Sen. Jamie Raskin and Del. Sheila Hixson could scramble these ratings.

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Weekend Recap

Weekend Recap

This weekend on the Seventh State you may have missed:

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District 38, Eastern Shore

The Hottest Senate Race in Maryland

D38Eastern Shore District 38

District 38 includes all of Somerset and Worcester Counties as well as much as Wicomico County. It is divided into three subdistricts and features some of the most interesting races in this election cycle. Unlike in much of the State, the general is the real show here on the south Shore.

The Senate race is probably the hottest general election contest in the State. Democratic Sen. Jim Mathias faces a tough challenge from Republican Del. Mike McDermott. This is a battle royale between two long successful politicians.

Mathias, a former mayor of Ocean City, served one term in the House before winning election to the Senate in 2010. McDermott is a former mayor of Pocomoke City and police chief in Snow Hill who won election to the House in 2010.

In January, campaign finance report filings revealed that McDermott had just $20K cash on hand compared to an impressive $208K for Mathias. He will need every bit of it. District 38 is red territory. Though Mathias won in the tough Democratic year in 2010, his margin over his GOP opponent was just 1.4%.

Somerset is the most Democratic county in the district–Obama carried it by 1.9% in 2012–but it only cast 16% of the district vote in 2010 and Mathias narrowly lost it. Worcester cast 46% of the vote but is more Republican–Romney won it by 18%. Nevertheless, Mathias who hails from Ocean City won it with 52% in 2010.

Portions of Wicomico comprise the remainder of the district. Wicomico is more narrowly Republican, as Romney won by just 5%. But the best Democratic precincts in Salisbury are in the neighboring black-majority District 37A. Mathias narrowly lost in Wicomico in 2010.

McDermott represents the same people as Mathias so any incumbency advantage is limited. Mathias will need all of his political skill as well as his mighty campaign war chest to beat the Republican lean of the district for a second time.

Backed by Rep. Andy Harris, one of my Eastern Shore sources describes McDermott as “to the right of Genghis Khan” on both social and fiscal issues. No one would confuse comparatively moderate Mathias with a Western Shore liberal but the difference between him and McDermott cannot be missed.

This race will help shape both Senate caucuses in the future. McDermott’s election will drag the GOP further to the right, bad news for its long-term statewide viability. A loss by Mathias would also weaken the strength of Democratic centrists, pulling the caucus to the left and increasing party polarization.

I expect Senate President Miller to go all in to support Mathias in the general election. Can the Republicans do the same for McDermott? And can McDermott raise enough cash once the session ends to run a viable campaign of his own?

General Election Rating: Toss Up.

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2014 Governor's Race

Health Care Exchange Tech Scrapped

The opening paragraph from this WaPo story is terrible news for the Brown campaign:

Maryland officials are set to replace the state’s online health-insurance exchange with technology from Connecticut’s insurance marketplace, according to two people familiar with the decision, an acknowledgment that a system that has cost at least $125.5 million is broken beyond repair.

That’s a lot of money down the drain on an initiative on which Lt. Gov. Brown had hoped to tout his leadership. Indeed, his placement at the head of the roll out seemed designed with that purpose.

The key question remains whether either AG Gansler or Del. Mizeur can capitalize on it. How do they attack Brown’s management skills without conflating it with a general attack on the President’s signature achievement?

Finding the way to craft a message successfully to pick that lock could well be the key to shifting voters in the fight for Democratic nomination. A further complication is how to make the attack without shifting voters to your other opponent.

If Brown wins the nomination, I expect that this issue will continue to feature in the general election. For a Republican, it’s a great way to rally the base and to attack Brown’s skills. In any case, he needs to get this problem fixed quickly so he can put it behind him.

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2014 Elections, Baltimore City, State's Attorney

Baltimore City State’s Attorney Race Rating

greggbernsteinBaltimore City State’s Attorney Gregg Bernstein

Gregg Bernstein pulled off the impossible in 2010. Bernstein, a wealthy white Jewish lawyer toppled an African-American State’s Attorney in a heavily African-American city–though less so than in the recent past–known for its racially charged politics.

His odds are much better this time around. He faces Marilyn Mosby, wife of rising star City Councilman Nick Mosby, in the primary and independent Russell Neaverdon in the general election. Mosby and Neaverdon are both African American.

The demographics of Baltimore City mean that Bernstein will have to run hard. With $350,000 in his account as of January 1st, he will have the resources to do so. He will also be aided by a team of sharp advisers, including Ann Beegle and SKDKnickerbocker.

Mosby will be competitive with $100,000 in her account,. Still, given his substantial cash advantage and formidable organization, Bernstein is favored in the primary. In heavily Democratic Baltimore it will be exceedingly difficult for Neaverdon to break through.

Primary Rating: Likely Bernstein
General Election Rating: Safe Bernstein

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