District 18

D18 Democratic Delegate Forum

D18DebateAl Carr, Ana Sol Gutiérrez, Jeff Waldstreicher, Emily Shetty, Natali Fani-Gonzalez, Elizabeth Matory, and Rick Kessler

I live tweeted last night’s delegate debate hosted by the D18 Democratic Caucus. Not all went through as the Bushey Theater, formerly Roundhouse Theater, has no wifi and is almost a cell phone dead zone.  Heaven for a theater but the enemy of the twitterati.

These events are great not because they change minds but because they give people a chance to know the candidates as real people and better understand what motivates them and where their real political passion lies.

DEBATE MOMENTS

Oblivious Conservatism on Education: Amazing to hear vocal criticism of basing education funding on a county’s wealth and support for directing it based on the number of students from candidates trying to outdo one another as the most progressive. So two counties with the same number of students should receive the same funds from the State even if one is twice as wealthy?

This populist railing against overcrowded schools will likely fly well with the voters. But conservatives will quite rightly roll their eyes at the incoherent pairing of this call for “fairness” with simultaneous demands for more taxes on the wealthy to pay for services for people striving their way up the ladder.

Smackdown! Moderator Charles Duffy saying to Jeff Waldstreicher “I guess we can move on if you’re not going to answer the question” after Jeff’s answer on school construction. Natali Fani-Gonzalez also took Jeff to task for expressing pride helping to bring an insufficient $40 million back to MoCo for school construction.

Boom. Liz Matory stated “our delegation in the House of Delegates is considered the weakest in the State of Maryland” in arguing her case for a new, more effective delegation. Direct contrast with Ana’s highlighting her seniority on the Appropriations Committee and Jeff doing the same on the Judiciary Committee.

New D18 Drinking Game: Drink when Rick Kessler says “ATM” or anyone says “bringing people together.” Seriously, I was getting worried that someone was going to break out singing “People. People who need people.”

Taxes and Economic Justice: Repeated calls for more taxes on high-income earners and big corporations in this district with some of the wealthiest precincts in the State, though also areas that need a hand. Much support for combined reported and closing the achievement gap. Liz Matory provided a contrast with her concern that current tax rates are making it more difficult to attract business to Montgomery.

No Discussion. Environment. Health Care.

CHALLENGERS

Natali Fani-Gonzalez Strengths: Unquestionably in command when she had the mike, Natali articulated a strong passion for economic justice backed by business and lobbying experience along with an inspiring personal story. Clear winner of the first half of the debate.

Elizabeth Matory Strengths: Forceful and willing to call it as she sees it and aware of the need to attract business to Maryland. Many  with business experience sound arrogant and windy as they talk about how they’ll bring it to bear on government. Not Liz. She communicated well how she’d marry her business smarts to politics.

Rick Kessler Strengths: On message as any presidential candidate, Rick drilled into my head that Montgomery County should not be the State of Maryland’s ATM. Rick clearly gets that candidates must repeat, repeat, repeat to get their message across.

Emily Shetty Strengths: Harnessed her personal history effectively to help show the grounding for her agenda. Drove home her support for more money for schools in Montgomery. @AbeSaffer is her not-so-secret Twitter weapon.

INCUMBENTS

Al Carr Strengths: Calm and relaxed, Al sounds like a real person doing his best to work pragmatically on problems rather than a pol. He highlighted concrete achievements in making our state government more genuinely transparent despite opposition.

Ana Sol Gutiérrez Strengths: Still passionate after twenty years in elected office. No one gets to the left of Ana in a debate–not a bad place to be in the Democratic primary. A very American immigrant story that paved the way for others on the stage.

Jeff Waldstreicher Strengths: No constituent problem is too small. Proud to be Delegate Pothole, Jeff’s opening statement highlighted his success in getting the A/C turned on in a county facility so a Bar Mitzvah could move ahead even though his child was sick. Gave out his cell number.

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partisanship

Party Performance By County

Overview
I have ranked Maryland’s counties and Baltimore City from least to most Democratic based on the average of the margin of victory for the respective Republican and Democratic candidates for President in the 2008 and 2012 election cycles.

Data
Garrett: R+45
Carroll: R+32
Allegheny: R+28
Queen Anne’s:- R+28
Caroline: R+23
Harford: R+18
Cecil: R+17
Washington: R+15
St Mary’s: R+14
Worcester: R+12
Talbot: R+11
Calvert: R+6
Dorchester: R+6
Wicomico: R+5
Frederick: R+2
Anne Arundel: R+1
Kent: EVEN
Somerset: EVEN
Baltimore County: D+16
Howard: D+22
Charles: D+28
Montgomery – D+43
Baltimore City: D+76
Prince George’s : D+79

Analysis
Several things jump out at me about this data. The first is that only six out of 24 jurisdictions lean Democratic. Luckily, those six happen to cast the vast majority of votes in the state. Furthermore, D+16 Baltimore County can no longer considered a swing jurisdiction, as it was for many years. The same is true of Howard and Charles. These three counties are now safely Democratic.

The second thing that jumps out at me is how few counties are relatively evenly split. Only Somerset, Kent, Frederick and Anne Arundel can be considered truly competitive. One could plausibly add Wicomico to that list, as well as perhaps Dorchester and Calvert if one were feeling charitable.

The map also showcases what a remarkable candidate Frank Kratovil was. He won 65% of the vote in Kent County in 2008 (Obama got 49%). That year, he won the most Republican county on the shore (Queen Anne’s) by ten points. He was the State’s Attorney there, so this isn’t entirely surprising. But he also won Caroline County with 52% of the vote. Kratovil eked out a two point win in Cecil, while cruising to a nine point victory in Worcester (and a fifteen point land slide in neighboring Wicomico). In heavily Somerset County, home to a large African-American population, he won by 19 points. Frank did lose Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore Counties. But he managed to carry every county on the Eastern Shore. In contrast, in 2010 Governor O’Malley carried not a single Eastern Shore County.

The numbers in Howard County show what a tough road to victory universally respected State Senator Alan Kittleman has. Conversely, the numbers in Anne Arundel give me hope for Democratic former Sheriff George Johnson’s bid for County Executive. The same is true of Jan Gardner in Frederick County. Republicans had once hoped to build majorities on their strength in these growing counties but it is just not happening.

The Maryland Democratic Party should invest substantive resources into the registration and turnout in Somerset County. The African American percentage is similar to Charles, and there’s no reason that Somerset couldn’t be delivering victories of victory for Team Blue. While in a county of a little over 26,000 this isn’t a game changer, it certainly is one of the view places with severe Democratic under performance in Maryland. It could also make a real difference in the Somerset’s government.

The results in Western Maryland are interesting as well. John Delaney lost Garrett and Allegheny counties by wide margins. He held Roscoe Bartlett to a virtual tie in Washington County. He managed to win Frederick; however, the District only contains the solidly Democratic precincts in Frederick City along with some swingier territory bordering Montgomery County.

In Montgomery, Delaney won by an unsurprisingly solid margin. All in all, Delaney’s $4 million plus investment of personal funds bought him substantial inroads in Western Maryland even if does not quite match the organic support Kratovil enjoyed on the Shore. Of course, Kratovil was a true product of the Shore, whereas Delaney was a does not live in his district. Culture matters in elections.

Lastly,  these numbers make me doubt any Republican will be able to win office in Montgomery County within my lifetime.

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Attorney General

Braveboy’s Planned Parenthood Rating Puzzle

AishaAisha Braveboy

Planned Parenthood of Metropolitan Washington (PPMW) is issuing candidate ratings based on questionnaires. PPMW has given two attorney general candidates, Aisha Braveboy and Brian Frosh, ratings of 100%. Jon Cardin is not listed.

One of PPMW’s questions involved support for marriage equality and Question 6, the 2012 referendum. But Del. Braveboy voted against marriage equality in the House and was not a supporter during the referendum.

Did PPMW ignore the marriage equality question in tallying its candidate ratings? Was Del. Braveboy forthcoming in response to this question? Or did PPMW just make a mistake?

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Hans Riemer, Montgomery County Council

At-Large MoCo Council Race, Pt. III

hansHans Riemer

Along with George Leventhal, Hans Riemer is viewed by many as among the more vulnerable at-large incumbents this season. This conclusion may puzzle as newcomer Hans catapulted over three incumbents to win second place in 2010. Moreover, incumbents are usually seen as safer bets.

Hans’s problems come in several varietals. First, he has disappointed some more ardent progressives who expected him to champion their issues. Most notably, he was more hesitant to hike the minimum wage as high or as fast as they wanted.

At the same time, developers don’t seem him as their best buddy either. His support for protecting Ten Mile Creek over their strong opposition didn’t give them the warm fuzzies. In short, he’s too progressive for business and too conservative for the lefties.

Finally, some argue that he just doesn’t fit the profile of a councilmember because he is too young and doesn’t have the typical background in business or politics. However, this “problem” strikes me as a strength rather than a weakeness. Not fitting a stereotype is a welcome breath of fresh air for many voters.

So the bloom is off the rose for Hans. And like the other incumbents, the government employee unions just aren’t showing the love. He also lost support from the Sierra Club and Progressive Maryland. Still, Hans is not friendless with endorsements from SEIU, CASA, and the volunteer firefighters. Also, he’s an affable, pleasant guy who many people just seem to like–not a bad quality in politics.

So, like George Leventhal, but for very different reasons, Hans has some tricky waters to navigate this primary season.

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George Leventhal, Montgomery County Council

At-Large MoCo Council Race, Pt. II

leventhalGeorge Leventhal

In a post a little over two weeks ago, I gave an overview of the race for the four at-large Montgomery County Council seats with a focus on the two safer incumbents, Marc Elrich and Nancy Floreen. Today, I take a look at one of the two other incumbents: George Leventhal.

George’s problems remain similar to four years ago when he came in fourth. They are not particularly issue related. Yes, he’s in the soup with the government employee unions but that places him in good company with the entire Council.

In general, George has married successfully popular progressive positions on many issues, such as an increase in the minimum wage, with unflinching support for developers, viewing strong economic growth as benefiting the County’s tax base and working people more generally.

George is a smart and active councilmember. However, he just doesn’t brook disagreement well, and is perceived as quick to anger and express disdain. Most recently, he publicly berated CASA after it did not endorse him. He is also perceived as not especially sympathetic to the western half of the County.

But I don’t know that this is a critical problem. First, George is also rumored to be funny and charming at times in a way that is as genuine as his less pleasant moments. His amusing Facebook posts about why you should get one of his yard signs attest to that.

Second, any resentment generated within the echo chamber of Montgomery’s political chattering classes only matters if it costs him too many supporters. While it weakens George, I don’t think he has become as politically toxic as Duchy Trachtenberg four years ago. Even if George creates unnecessary enemies and makes it harder to repair disagreement, he also unquestionably has strong advocates.

In short, while George may be vulnerable, he is also in good shape in many ways, including well-funded.

Next up: Hans Riemer.

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District 18

D18 Delegate Debate

Wednesday, May 14th
7:00 – 9:00 p.m.

 Bushey Center
(formerly the Roundhouse Theater)
4010 Randolph Road
Silver Spring, MD
Sponsored by the District 18 Democratic Caucus

The three incumbent delegates running for reelection are Al Carr, Ana Sol Gutiérrez, and Jeff Waldstreicher. The four challengers are Natali Fani-Gonzalez, Rick Kessler, Liz Matory and Emily Shetty. This is an intelligent, well-spoken group, so it should be a good discussion.

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Young Guns

The Top Thirteen Young Guns of Maryland

1. Sarah Elfreth is Government Affairs Director for the National Aquarium. The smartest, wittiest lobbyist walking the halls of the Lowe House Office Building, she is also one of the youngest young guns on these lists. Whether she remains behind the scenes or runs for office in the future–a distinct possibility–one thing is for sure: you’ll be sure to hear the name Sarah Elfreth for decades to come.

Anonymous: “Sarah Elfreth, a resident of Annapolis MD, is a true leader and an extraordinary example of a young woman who is both influential and impactful before State and local government.”

2. Amit Mistry is a rising star not just in Montgomery County, not just in Annapolis but also in the big leagues: DC. Currently the National Data & Targeting Director at the League of Conservation Voters, he was previously an Account Executive at Catalist. Before that, he was Chief of Staff to House Majority Leader Kumar Barve and worked for Martin O’Malley–both in the Governor’s Office and on his reelection Campaign. He also worked for Del. Sam Arora in his Annapolis office and on his 2010 primary campaign. A native of Damascus, he is well positioned to win a seat in District 14 if he ever felt so inclined. The kicker: he’s only 26.

3. Jonathan Sachs is the rare wunderkind made good.  Currently Director of Public Policy for Adventist Healthcare, I could see Jonathan as a successor to GiGi Godwin as CEO of the MoCo Chamber. A number of different people wrote in to nominate Jonathan for this list. Here is what one said:

Anonymous: “Probably the most notable thing about Jonathan—and it speaks to his character and intelligence—is that in a county where “progressives” rule, Jonathan is a centrist, pro-business Democrat. He thinks for himself and doesn’t fall in line with the local political dogma, so his input is all the more valuable because those who share his point of view can get drowned out in our local political conversations. But when Jonathan says something, people—included elected officials—pay attention.”

4. Zach Fang – In my opinion, Zach is now the top field director in the State of Maryland. With a DCCC Pedigree, Zach has returned to the Free State more dangerous than ever. Doug Gansler lucked out hiring this guy.

5. Melissa Joseph is whip smart and perhaps has the best people skills of Maryland’s political class. With an extensive experience in the offices of Ron Young, Rob Garagiola and Chris Van Hollen, Melissa is a triple threat: she’s effective at the federal, state and campaign levels.

6. Ed Burroughs – Not only is Ed the youngest member of Prince George’s School Board, he’s established himself as a national thought leader on education reform. Although he passed on what would have been an easy open seat race for Delegate in D26, a promotion is surely in his near future. He’ll certainly be the favorite to succeed Obie Patterson on the County Council . . . if he wants it. Close with the Iveys, he could also end up as a bigwig in a potential Gansler administration.

7. Joseph Kitchen – Joseph is a highly influential openly gay African-American Minister. He is also a respected voice on education reform and were it not for a recurrence of cancer would have likely been elected to the Prince George’s School Board in 2012. He is also the President of the Young Democrats of Maryland, who have experienced a lot of growth in the DC Suburbs under his tenure.

8.  Anne Klase is part of Comptroller Peter Franchot’s small, close knit circle (along with Andrew Friedson and Len Foxwell)

Anonymous: Anne is District 30’s go-to. Hardworking, balanced, and liked by everyone.

Anonymous – works for the Comptroller (floats between the campaign and the office) but don’t hold that against her. She’ll be elected to the AAC Central Committee in June. In a county with few strong Dems (and the strong ones can sometimes be divisive), Anne is universally liked and respected. She is young (23/4) and has a long career ahead in AA politics – if only as the person behind the scenes

9. Kelly Blynn is a Rockstar organizer. No one does it better in Montgomery County. I dread the day I find myself on the opposite side of an issue from Kelly because that can be a very scary place to be. One nominator described her as:

“Coalition for Smarter Growth, transit advocate – a sophisticated and energetic organizer who played a central role in the BRT campaign.”

10. Tommy Underwood  is a genuinely nice, decent guy and done a great job so far managing O’Malley Speechwriter Nick Stewart’s state house run and has a very bright future. This guy could be the Executive Director of the Democratic Caucus in 2018.

Anonymous: He’s not only a plugged-in guy with a very easy-going personality, but he’s also one of the hardest workers I’ve come across and sharp politically.

11. Andrew Friedson. Excepting his longtime handler Len Foxwell, no one is closer to Peter Franchot than Andrew Friedson. He currently serves as Communications Director in the Comptroller’s Office, where he was previously Deputy Chief of Staff. He managed Franchot’s reelection campaign in 2010.

Anonymous: “another no-brainer nominee.” 

12. Cory McCray – As far as I’m concerned, there is not a single person in Baltimore (or Maryland) who doesn’t think Cory McCray will win a seat in the legislature on June 24th. One incumbent actually dropped out to avoid facing him in the primary–and I don’t think anyone blames her. Cory has been a recognized leader in the IBEW for years. He’s also infectiously charming. Future Mayor?

Anonymous: Cory is a graduate of a five-year apprenticeship program with International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) Local 24. For the past four years before becoming a candidate in Baltimore’s  District 45 you could not say union organizing in Baltimore without mentioning Cory’s name. Corey also is the co creator of the B.E.S.T. Democratic Club.

13. Jonathan Jayes-Greene is very bright and connects well with many people. He combines a tremendous personal story with boundless political savvy to promote the issues important to him, which frequently involve immigration. Currently working in the governor’s office, maybe he’ll return there as First Panamanian-American governor?

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Montgomery County Council

Effects Bargaining and Endorsements

1 Comment

Effects

MCGEO is the Municipal and County Government Employee Organization. FOP is the Fraternal Order of Police. AFL is the MD-DC AFL-CIO. IAFF is the International Association of Fire Fighters. There might be additional endorsements than those recorded here, particularly for the IAFF.

The government employee unions are placing heavy bets behind candidates who favor effects bargaining despite its repudiation by the voters, especially Duchy Trachtenberg and Tom Hucker. In a recent debate, Duchy speculated that the decline in police morale resulting from the removal of effects bargaining had caused crime to increase. Except that crime has declined–as Ike Leggett loves to remind us–which renders the theory untenable.

Ryan Spiegel has positioned himself as extremely pro-labor despite his unwillingness to revisit effects bargaining. And the unions don’t have a pro-effects bargaining choice in District 3. Ryan is clearly their candidate for the Rockville-Gaithersburg district.

In ultra-liberal District 5, Evan Glass has staked out a position as the only candidate opposed to overturning the will of the voters unless it proves to cause problems for voters. Not a bad idea since he was never going to outbid Hucker for union support.

Marc Elrich is the only incumbent councilmember to receive an endorsement from any of these four unions. At-Large Candidate Vivian Malloy is pro-effects bargaining but is not perceived as a viable challenger by these unions.

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Anne Kaiser, Bill Frick, House of Delegates, Kumar Barve, Sheila Hixson

The Next Chair of Ways and Means

At least one prominent District 20 activist disagrees with my assessment that longtime incumbent Del. Sheila Hixson is a safe bet for reelection. So, apparently, does the Gazette. I still think she’s a lock but I’ve been wrong in the past. So after asking around Annapolis, here’s the shortlist:

  • Anne Kaiser
  • Kumar Barve
  • Bill Frick

If they hadn’t left the House, Brian Feldman and Justin Ross would both be on the list too. Geographic balance suggests that the chair would have to be from Montgomery County–Maryland’s largest jurisdiction and particularly large Democratic delegation can’t be chair-less.

Promoting gender balance in the leadership would favor a woman for the spot. Otherwise, there would be a very non-PC 1-5 gender split and Democrats tend to be especially obsessed with such things. Both of these would favor the smart, hard charging Education Subcommittee Chair Anne Kaiser.

On the other hand,  Revenues Subcommittee Chair Bill Frick is one of the brightest intellects that the House of Delegates has seen in some time. He is also well-liked in Annapolis, although rumor has it his aborted AG Campaign may have rankled some in leadership as well as his District 16 colleagues. Regardless, Frick is an immensely talented politician. If he became Chair, he would become a strong candidate to become Speaker (whenever Mike Busch moves on).

Majority Leader Kumar Barve, who would be first AAPI Committee Chair. However, it would be a somewhat lateral move, as he would have to surrender his spot as Majority Leader. Frick or Kaiser would each have an excellent shot at becoming Majority Leader if Barve took the helm at Ways and Means. But so would John Bohanon or Talmadge Branch.

Am I completely off base? Send questions, comments and complaints to johnga.ems@gmail.com.

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Maryland Politics Watch