Winners and Losers

Winners

1. Larry Hogan. Not only did he win but he completely shocked everybody by winning by a greater margin than Bob Ehrlich in 2002. A stunning victory by a Republican in Deep Blue Maryland. Democrats just didn’t think it was possible.

2. Polarization. The Democrats who lost in the General Assembly are almost all moderate or conservative Democrats: Sen. Roy Dyson, Del. David Rudolph, Del. Norm Conway. The Democrats will be more liberal and the Republicans more conservative. Expect even more acrimony between the Governor and the General Assembly than when Ehrlich was in office.

3. Chris Christie. I know one governor who will be endorsing him 2016. While Maryland doesn’t carry a lot of weight in the Republican Party, I am sure that Christie will welcome its delegates.

Losers

1. Martin O’Malley. The loss of his chosen successor undercuts completely his (vice?) presidential campaign. His legacy has now been repudiated by his own state at the polls.

2. Lieutenant Governors. The curse continues. Blair Lee lost in the primary, and now Katheen Kennedy Townsend and Anthony Brown have lost in the general. Perhaps Ken Ulman should be relieved.

3. Purple Line and Red Line. Governor-Elect Hogan has said he will not proceed with these projects. Why on earth should he throw billions at light-rail for areas that will never vote for him? He’d rather spend the money on roads.

4. Orange is Not the New Black. I am sure that Heather Mizeur was completely sincere in her Baltimore Sun opinion piece. But many who are not her diehard fans will view it as a cynical ploy to get her name before the voters even as she threw Anthony Brown under the bus while avowedly endorsing him. The most memorable moment of the campaign will not be forgotten.

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Simmons Running Write-In Campaign

Del. Lou Simmons lost the Democratic Primary for State Senate to Cheryl Kagan in District 17 this year but that apparently has not stopped him from running a quixotic write-in campaign for the seat in the general election with signs up in most precincts.

However, he has not filed a certificate of candidacy (see screenshot below from the State Board of Elections website today) as a write-in candidate, so I do not think that he would qualify even if he pulled off the upset of the decade. (If someone knows more about the appropriate law, please let me know.)

D17

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Vic Weissberg

Vic Weissberg, a very active Democrat who lives in District 18, has had a very difficult year and is now in the hospital recovering with a fever. Vic, lots of your friends are thinking about you, miss you, and sharing updates about you. Get well soon!

P.S. Anyone who reads this blog knows it’s Election Day. Go out and vote!

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The Racial Math for a Brown Win

TheMath

I looked at the Gonzales (R) poll to get a sense of what Brown or Hogan would have to do in order to achieve a victory tomorrow. I’ll analyze the electorate from a racial prism because solid black turnout is critical to Anthony Brown’s chances.

Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich’s 2002 victory rested in large part on unusually low African-American turnout–blacks composed an astonishingly low share of the electorate in that year. In 2006, the CNN exit poll indicates that African Americans were 23% of the electorate, a major increase from 2002.

Gonzales estimates black turnout this year at 25%, at the low end of predictions but not at all out of the realm of possibility in our state where African Americans comprise 28.1% of the voting-age population. Moreover, African Americans have formed a greater part of the electorate in presidential years since at least 2000.

Let’s assume Gonzales is right and blacks form only one-quarter of the electorate. The share of the white vote that Brown needs to reach 50% depends on the the percentage of blacks who support him. Gonzales reports that Brown possesses an 87-5 advantage among African Americans.

Exit polls indicate that Gov. Ehrlich gained 15% of the black vote in 2006, when he lost his bid for reelection. It seems unlikely that Hogan could do as well against Brown, who would be the State’s first African-American governor. If one splits the undecideds in the same 87-5 proportion, Hogan still has just 5% of the black vote. But let’s say Brown’s share could fall in the 5% to 10% range.

If blacks are 25% of the electorate and Brown receives 95% of their votes, then he needs just 35.0% of the (mostly white) non-black vote to win election–this is 10% less than O’Malley won in 2006. If Brown gets 9 in 10 of black voters, however, Brown needs 36.7% of non-black voters to reach 50% of the total vote.

Obviously, Brown’s path becomes easier the higher the turnout among African Americans and the more solidly he is able to consolidate their votes. If black turnout inches up to 27% and Brown wins 95% of their votes, he would need just one-third of the non-black vote to win a majority.

Crucial to Brown is not just the racial composition but which non-blacks vote. In particular, reading the tea leaves of the Gonzales poll, whites in Baltimore City and the DC suburbs seem more likely to support Hogan. If they turn out at low rates, it would be easier for Hogan to reach the very high share of the non-black vote he needs. In contrast, Hogan would likely benefit from higher turnout in the Baltimore suburbs, Western Maryland, and the Eastern Shore.

Although Hogan is winning Republicans solidly, independents lopsidedly, and even a chunk of Democrats, his path remains difficult. Here is the share of the white vote won by a series of  Democrats according to exit polls:

Ben Cardin in 2012: 39%
Barack Obama in 2012: 43%
Barack Obama in 2008: 48%
Martin O’Malley in 2006: 45%
Ben Cardin in 2006: 48%
Barbara Mikulski in 2004: 56%
Townsend in 2002: 34% (estimate)

According to the Gonzales exit poll, Hogan leads Brown among whites by 59% to 31%.  If you divvy up the undecided voters in the same proportions as decided voters, then Brown would have 34.4% of the white vote. The last time Democrats scored this low in a statewide election was when Ehrlich beat Townsend in 2002–and blacks will certainly end up a higher share of the electorate than in that year and probably vote at a higher rate for Brown. Moreover, only the Gonzales survey, which was conducted for Republicans shows Brown with this low level of white support.

Lots to watch for tomorrow night. But if Brown gets at least 37% of the white vote, he is almost certain to win. And the share of the white vote he needs will decline if (1) black turnout goes above 25% and (2) the share of blacks who vote for him exceeds 90%. Another sign to watch is changes in turnout in Montgomery relative to the rest of the State. If Montgomery turnout drops relative to other jurisdictions, that could spell trouble for Brown.

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This is How You Do It

Two Democrats have shown how to make lemonade when life hands you lemons. This is just one of Delegate Ariana Kelly’s responses on Facebook to very low early voting turnout in her district:

ariana1

In other words, she used a negative–low Democratic turnout in early voting in her district–as a means to stimulate more people in her network to go out and vote. Call it early voting jujitsu.

Montgomery County Young Democrats President Nik Sushka is using the tightness of the gubernatorial race to similar effect:

Nik

In other words, instead of denying that there is a problem or just bemoaning it, use it to motivate supporters. Smart leadership.

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UPDATE on Sample Ballot Snafu

This post is an update of my post from last night on major problems with the Democratic sample ballot produced by MCDCC (Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee)

Bad News on Delivery

I am receiving reports that many people who live in Districts 15 and 39 did not receive their sample ballots today. It’s unclear what share of voters in these districts or elsewhere have not received their sample ballot. But, let’s face it, a sample ballot received Wednesday is about as useful as an airline seat from last week.

Good News on Signs

Brown, Frosh, and Leggett plan to make sure that their campaigns deliver tons of signs to polling places in Montgomery. That’s why there were no signs for them at the bag pick-up.

Republicans and Greens Unhappy

Republicans are complaining that it is a conspiracy that Republican Rose Li, a candidate for the House of Delegates, was left off the Democratic sample ballot for District 16. Similarly, the Green Party delegate candidate was left out in District 20. While I imagine it would have been better to get it right, it seems an odd series of complaints. It is the Democratic sample ballot.

It takes chutzpah for the party that created sample ballots for Republican candidates that falsely linked the names of popular Democrats with Republicans to complain about a minor slip up that clearly results from incompetence rather than foul play. After all, the Democrats messed up the bio for one of their own candidates in the same district.

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Hogan Slammed for NRA Support

In the final days of the gubernatorial campaign, attention is rightly being focused on Republican Nominee Larry Hogan’s refusal to release his responses to the NRA questionnaire on this issue. A good question: candidates should be prepared to share their views not just with special interest groups but the general public.

Moms Demand Action

Jennifer Coulter of Moms Demand Action is asking exactly what did Larry Hogan do to receive an A- rating from the NRA and this robocall funded by the NRA in support of his campaign:

Maryland Democrats are also pressing hard on Hogan’s unwillingness to share with the public what he promised the NRA in exchange for their support:

MDP

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Sunday, November 2nd, 2014
Contact:  443-221-4779
JSmith@mddems.org

BREAKING: NRA Robocalling Marylanders to Prop Up Larry Hogan

Payback – Gun Lobbyists Spending for Hogan After He Put Secret Promises in Writing to Earn NRA’s Endorsement

ANNAPOLIS, MD – Last night, reports across the state confirmed that the National Rifle Association is opening up their wallet to defend their endorsed candidate for Governor, Republican Larry Hogan. The robocall says that “there’s only one candidate in the race for governor of Maryland who has stood strong against the Obama Bloomberg gun control agenda, that candidate is Larry Hogan.” It goes on to attack Lt. Governor Brown because he “helped to enact one of the largest gun bans in the history of Maryland” – the ban on the sale of assault rifles contained in SB 281.

Larry Hogan, who filled out the NRA’s questionnaire, earned an A- rating, and was recently endorsed by the NRA, has continually refused to release the promises he put in writing to gun lobbyists.

“Larry Hogan opposed common sense background checks to prevent criminals from getting handguns and opposed banning the sale of assault rifles and high capacity magazines, so it’s no surprise that the gun lobbyists at the NRA are spending money to prop up his campaign,” said Jared Smith, Maryland Democratic Party Spokesman. “Larry Hogan has refused to release the questionnaire that earned him the NRA’s endorsement because he knows that Maryland families don’t support his dangerous pro-gun agenda.”

You can listen to the NRA’s pro-Hogan robocall by clicking here.

“Hello, this is the NRA calling from 703-267-1200 with an important election alert. There’s only one candidate in the race for governor of Maryland who has stood strong against the Obama Bloomberg gun control agenda, that candidate is Larry Hogan. His opponent, Anthony Brown helped to enact one of the largest gun bans in the history of Maryland last year. That extreme anti-gun legislation, Senate Bill 281 was enacted over the objections of thousands of Marylanders who voiced their strong opposition. Anthony Brown would expand the Obama Bloomberg gun control agenda as governor and further restrict the rights of Maryland’s law abiding gun owners. This race could be decided by just a handful of votes so your vote could make the difference. Please vote Larry Hogan for governor on November 4th and encourage your family and friends to do the same. Thank you”

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Maryland Politics Watch