harford, LGBT

Anti-LGBT GOP Strategy Extends Beyond Peroutka

Earlier this week, I detailed how Anne Arundel Republican County Council Candidate Michael Peroutka is using robocalls from a fake group “Marylanders for Transgenders” to call attention to his opponent’s sexual orientation in a negative way.

Unfortunately, this approach does not appear limited to Peroutka, a man that advocates southern secession and belongs to the extremist John Birch society. Another Maryland Republican is using similar attacks against openly gay candidates.

In Harford County, a public letter posted on daggerpress.com attempts to support Republican County Council Candidate Curtis Beulah by linking his opponent, out candidate Joe Smith, to sexual predators and pedophilia:

In addition, Smith is a founding member of the Stonewall Democrats of Central Maryland, a gay rights activist organization. These are the kind of groups that gave us the recent ”Bathroom Bill”. This statewide law is so poorly crafted that it allows sexual predators to claim sexual identity confusion, thereby ushering them into the public restrooms of any gender they choose. A pedophile’s dream come true.

Can we expect more of the same should Mr. Smith have a hand in policy making for Harford County?

The real question is how many more of these smear attacks can we expect from Maryland Republicans?

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MCDCC

MCDCC Sample Ballot Incompetence Spoils Dems Pre-Election Weekend

The Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) sends out a sample ballot before the state elections to urge Democrats to the polls and remind them of their party’s ticket. There were some major snafus this year.

I’ve been receiving a lot of reports, some conflicting, of problems, and have been attempting to sift out fact from fiction. This is why I’ve delayed posting on this topic.

Mix and Match Candidates

In District 19, incumbent Sen. Roger Manno‘s name has been replaced by that of Sen. Rich Madaleno–the candidate in District 18. As you can imagine, Sen. Manno–who donated money to help pay for the sample ballot–was understandably not happy about it.

I suppose one could view this as karma, since Rich Madaleno’s name appeared as Roger Madaleno on the Apple Ballot during the Democratic primary.  But at least the critical last name and first initial were right in that case. I hope Roger gets his donation back.

In District 16, Delegate Nominee Marc Korman‘s biography has been replaced with that of Aruna Miller. I am sure Marc was interested to learn that he worked for county since he was eight and has already served on a House committee before winning election.

Latino Outreach Fail

MCDCC has touted its efforts to reach out more strongly to the County’s fast-growing Latino community. Unfortunately, the sample ballot was a textbook example of how not to go about it.

First, the name of incumbent Delegate Ana Sol Gutiérrez (D-18) was misspelled on the sample ballot:

sample2

Second, accents and the tilde of ñ were often left out in Spanish text. The office titles are sometimes incorrect, even though they could have been directly copied from the official bilingual version. Even español has been written as espanol:

sample1

Finally, the sample ballot directs people on how to find a Spanish sample ballot online. Other than that it doesn’t exist, this is an excellent idea.

Small Mailing and Still Waiting?

Beyond the giant mistake in District 19, the real story may be how many sample ballots were sent out. I am told that elected Democrats were promised that hundreds of thousands would go out but that only around 90,000 were mailed. I am unable to confirm this. MCDCC has made clear that they will not respond to my requests for information, though I understand they are also being closed-mouthed with electeds on this issue too.

While many, including your gentle blogger, have received their Democratic sample ballot, I have heard that other Democrats who did not vote early have yet to receive them. No doubt this is due to the last minute mailing. On the other hand, I imagine Roger (or is it Rich?) Manno must be relieved that at least early voters did not get it before going to the polls.

Missing Signs on Bag Day

There were no signs for either Brown/Ulman or for Brian Frosh. In other words, there were no signs for the two statewide candidates who need strong visible support in Montgomery on Tuesday.

Rumor that Should be Ignored

Some told me that they were shocked that their congressman was left off the sample ballot. This is not an error but intentional in order to comply with federal campaign finance law. Advertising their names counts as a campaign contribution.

Why Did this Happen?

MCDCC Chair Kevin Walling personally managed the sample ballot with his inner circle (the Politburo? the Presidium?) of MCDCC. It arrived very late to the printers and few others were involved to review it and make sure that they got this complex task (different versions need to go to different areas of the County) right.

MCDCC staff has long been dedicated to the Democratic Party and helped with this task many times before. They should not be blamed and I hope no one tries to throw them under the bus in order to save their own reputation.

As in the past, MCDCC has many excellent members. But they need to address these issues squarely. The central problems with MCDCC remain the ones I outlined in a previous post: a lack of accountability, transparency, and inclusion. I should now add incompetence. Mistakes happen but both elected officials and ordinary Democrats are mad about the sample ballot snafu–and rightly so.

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Montgomery County Council

Dyer Attacks Riemer

The world has truly gone upside down.

Republican Robert Dyer is attacking incumbent Councilmember Hans Riemer (D-At Large) for being too close to fat cats on Wall Street and K Street–a Romney clone.

When I saw Robert Dyer in the pre-primary debate, I was pleasantly surprised by his problem-solving demeanor (came across in person better than on video) but this is a veritable negative ad cliché. Still, I doubt Hans Riemer is best pleased by this attack on his efforts to project an image as a practical, positive reformer.

 

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Peroutka

Peroutka in Mailer with Hogan and Schuh

@1430WNAV caught this story first and sourced the photos replicated here.Why are Larry Hogan and Steve Schuh in a mailer with a candidate they disavowed? In this mailer for the “Team for Change,” racist theocrat (h/t to Jon Hutson) Michael Peroutka is presented as just another Republican along with them:

Peroutka3

Peroutka2

Hogan and Schuh say that this is a mistake and continue to say his views have no place in the Republican Party. Then why did they allow their names to be attached on an official GOP flyer?  The official MD Republican line is: “He paid to be on a flyer.”

First, the GOP operative who thought it was a great idea to link their gubernatorial and county exec candidates to this loser should be fired. Second, Hogan and Schuh should publicly endorse Armstrong at an event at this point to undo the damage.

The real difference between Peroutka and Armstrong is really much simpler than presented in the mailer:

Peroutka

Remember this is a guy who said please rise for the national anthem before “Dixie” was played and advocates southern secession from the United States. As I said before, this is a chance for Democrats and Republicans to have a united purpose as we agree that politics is better off without Peroutka poison.

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Anne Arundel

Peroutka Smears Armstrong in Anne Arundel

Michael Peroutka, a Republican candidate for the Anne Arundel County Council, has now launched a smear campaign of robocalls against his Democratic opponent, Patrick Armstrong. The call is from a fake group, “Maryland for Transgenders” and seeks to use his sexual orientation as a negative. Much of the call focuses on his support for “transgenders.”

Here is a recording of this despicable robocall:

Peroutka Smears Armstrong Robocall

Peroutka, a Bircher secessionist, was disavowed soon after he won the nomination by both Gubernatorial Candidate Larry Hogan and County Executive Candidate Steve Schuh. I think they can feel extra-good about that decision now and I hope they will take a moment to reiterate their opposition to Peroutka-style politics.

Armstrong is a real local, having grown up in Annapolis and graduated from Broadneck High School and Salisbury University. has been strongly endorsed by the Capital newspaper. Vote Armstrong on Tuesday. It’s the rare opportunity to help out both the Democratic and Republican parties–not to mention Anne Arundel.

 

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2014 Governor's Race, polls

Nate Silver Gives Brown 93% Chance of Victory

FiveThirtyEight has released its gubernatorial forecasts. They say Brown will win by 9.7%–an outcome that would thrill Democrats in an increasingly hot contest.

Nate Silver’s forecast of a solid Brown win is squarely at odds with Charlie Cook’s forecast of a very tight race with an edge for Brown. It’s a great face off between people often regarded as the nation’s top polling aggregator and top political analyst.

We’ll find out who is closer to being right on Tuesday.

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2014 Governor's Race

Cook Report: Governor’s Race Rating Now a Toss Up

From the Cook Political Report:

Maryland: Both parties acknowledge that this contest between Democratic Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown and GOP businessman Larry Hogan has gotten very close in this very blue state. Neither side thought they would be spending seven figures here, particularly this late in the race. Democrats believe that they caught Hogan’s surge, and have had enough time to define their own candidate. We tend to agree and believe that Brown enjoys a slight advantage, but polling and the barrage of television ads from both sides suggest that this belongs in Toss Up.

The Cook Political Report is an extremely highly regarded source of political analysis. His team has had their ear to the ground for decades and is scrupulously nonpartisan. I’m also pleased that Charlie Cook and his family have been longtime residents of the Town of Chevy Chase here in Montgomery County.

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turnout

Early Voting: Final Stats

EVgraph

Turnout was way, way up on the final day of early voting with 64,247 Marylanders going to the polls. So far, 8.59% of all registered voters have cast ballots.

The Democrats had a especially good day. 1.94% of registered Democrats voted on Day 8 as compared to 1.83% of Republicans and 1.02% of unaffiliated voters. That brought the final rate of Democratic participation up to 9.29%–0.12% higher than the Republican rate of 9.17% and the unaffiliated rate of 4.30%

Indeed, Democrats have now finally posted a gain in the number of voters from 2010. The total number of registered Democrats who have voted is up 48,809 as compared to 28,509 for Republicans and 10,008 for the unaffiliated. That gives the Democrats an increase in their raw vote advantage over the Republicans of 20,300 votes banked from 2010. The increased advantage held by Democrats over Republicans and unaffiliated is 10,291–a nice reversal from the close on Day 7 for Team Blue.

However, the Republicans have done a better job of increasing their vote from 2010. The number of Democrats who voted early is up 34.8% in 2014 compared to 48.7% for Republicans and 54.6% for unaffiliated voters.

In short, Democrats have benefited from the expansion of early voting because more people voted and there are far more Democrats than Republicans in Maryland. But they gained less than they should have because the Republicans did a better job of turning out early voters than in 2010 and narrowed the gap with Democrats despite their strong Day 8 finish.

The following table shows the final tallies in each county. Clearly, counties in the Baltimore suburbs and Eastern Shore did a better job of turning out voters than those in the Washington region, Baltimore City, or Western Maryland. The county numbers correlate well with those from 2010 as @mdtruth has explained.

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In terms of county turnout on the final day, Prince George’s performed above the state average with 1.24% of Prince Georgians casting an early ballot, helping it finish not too far below the state average. Baltimore City and Montgomery continued to under perform with just 0.97% of Charm City voters and 0.80% of MoCO voters going to the polls.

And thus ends my first blog post ever from an airplane! I’ll try to provide more analysis later.

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turnout

Early Voting: Trick or Treat Edition

Early voting is over but as of 11:30 on Thursday night, the Maryland State Board of Elections has not posted the final numbers on early voting participation. Nevertheless, here are some thoughts as the opening act of this year’s elections come to a close.

1. The Impact of Early Voting is Overrated. Most studies of early voting indicate little effect on total turnout. Unsurprisingly, many early voters are people who would have otherwise participated on Election Day or voted absentee. The latter explains the decline in absentee ballots. EV provides opportunities for both parties but mostly convenience for voters.

2. Many lament that Election Day is not a holiday or we don’t vote on the weekend. Except that early voting dived by roughly 50% on a gorgeous weekend over early voting held on weekdays. Confirmation for political science studies that show zero relationship between free time and propensity to vote.

3. The Case for Republicans: Early voting was supposed to benefit Democrats and it was a bust. Despite an expansion in the days for early voting and number of early voting centers, Republicans have prevented Democrats from any net gains over 2010. And this occurred even though early voting increased and there are far more Democrats than Republicans in Maryland. Republicans increased their rate of turnout to match that of Democrats. Democratic turnout in the big three was terrible.

4. The Case for Democrats: Once the final numbers are released, the final totals will reveal a gain in raw votes for Democrats. Precisely because there are more Democrats, the addition of another 40,000 or so voters will result in the Democrats going into Election Day with a net gain from early voting. As @mdtruth has reported, 2010 turnout predicts 2014 turnout very well, so the lack of a net change is not a big surprise.

5. My Assessment: To the extent that it does matter, the evidence that either party has gained substantially over 2010 is thin. As of the end of Day 7, Republicans had a net gain of less than 2000 ballots over 2010. The number is around 5000 if unaffiliated voters are also included. But the numbers are still down for everyone if you factor in the decline in absentee voting, which is of course not yet complete.

6. But If I Must Pick a Winner: Republicans have more reason to feel pleased. Democrats had hoped that early voting would result in a substantial gain in votes banked in advance of Election Day. That hasn’t happened. And it’s hard to blame it on being a hard year for Democrats, as 2010 was worse. Nonetheless, @mdtruth has it right in that 2014 turnout correlates well with 2010 turnout. Any real impact on the final outcome is unclear and likely small.

I’m traveling this weekend but will see if I can report the final numbers at some point. And “in case I don’t see ya, good afternoon, good morning, and good night!”

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Maryland Politics Watch