{"id":8486,"date":"2017-09-12T07:00:15","date_gmt":"2017-09-12T11:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=8486"},"modified":"2017-09-11T18:53:36","modified_gmt":"2017-09-11T22:53:36","slug":"how-much-will-emilys-list-spend-in-cd6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=8486","title":{"rendered":"How Much Will Emily\u2019s List Spend in CD6?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n

Recently, Emily\u2019s List announced its endorsement for CD6 candidate Aruna Miller<\/a>, a move seen as significant in that race.\u00a0 Emily\u2019s List\u2019s Super PAC, Women Vote<\/a>, has made millions of dollars in independent expenditures (IE) in federal races over the last five cycles.\u00a0 But how effective are they?<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start in Maryland.\u00a0 In 2016, Emily\u2019s List invested in three federal candidates: Donna Edwards (U.S. Senate), Joseline Pe\u00f1a-Melnyk (CD 4) and Kathleen Matthews (CD8).\u00a0 The group had an impact: they accounted for at least a million dollars in TV spending<\/a> for Edwards and basically assumed the bulk of mail duty for Matthews.\u00a0 But all three candidates lost, with Edwards finishing second in the primary and Pena Melnyk and Matthews finishing third (despite both having the Washington Post endorsement).\u00a0 The group spent $3.2 million of IE funds on behalf of the three candidates, including $2.9 million for Edwards.\u00a0 Edwards\u2019 amount was one of the largest single-race investments made by Emily\u2019s List in the 2016 cycle.\u00a0 Data for the group\u2019s IE spending in Maryland appears below.<\/p>\n

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Now let\u2019s examine the group\u2019s IE spending nationwide<\/a> in 2016.\u00a0 The group invested in 23 races, winning 7 and losing 15.\u00a0 In the remaining race (Florida CD9), the group\u2019s original pick lost in the Democratic primary, but they then spent on behalf of the Democratic nominee, who won in the general.\u00a0 Let\u2019s call that one a draw.\u00a0 It\u2019s important to note that Emily\u2019s List did not spend in every race in which it endorsed<\/a>.\u00a0 Data for the group\u2019s IE spending nationwide in the 2016 cycle appears below.<\/p>\n

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What can be learned from the results of Emily\u2019s List\u2019s chosen races?\u00a0 Although their win rate and their experience in Maryland are not impressive, they had some notable successes.\u00a0 Perhaps their biggest win was helping to knock out freshman Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte (NH) in a razor-tight win for then-Governor Maggie Hassan<\/a>.\u00a0 Emily\u2019s List spent $3.2 million against Ayotte.\u00a0 They also spent $3.6 million to hold Harry Reid\u2019s Senate seat in Nevada, helping to boost Catherine Cortez Masto to victory.\u00a0 But besides Ayotte, they tried and failed to knock out seven other GOP incumbents, spending $6.9 million on those races.\u00a0 These were not crazy bets \u2013 GOP Senators Pat Toomey (PA) and Richard Burr (NC) were thought to be vulnerable at the time<\/a> \u2013 but they did not work out.<\/p>\n

In U.S. House races, Emily\u2019s List spent an average of $218,675 per contest.\u00a0 The group\u2019s highest single IE in a House race was a combined $881,880 to defeat freshman New York GOP Congressman Lee Zeldin, who beat the group\u2019s candidate by 16 points<\/a>.\u00a0 In many House races, the group spent less than $100,000, which was probably not enough to make a difference.\u00a0 Maryland and New York are the only states in which the group lost three races.\u00a0 We would not blame Emily\u2019s List if they decided not to throw more money our way!<\/p>\n

What does all of this mean for CD6?\u00a0 The 2018 elections, in which opposition to Donald Trump is likely to play a significant part, may very well contain more opportunities for Emily\u2019s List and other progressive groups to score victories against the GOP than in 2016.\u00a0 That could draw Emily\u2019s List\u2019s money away from a blue-state primary like CD6 and into districts where GOP incumbents are vulnerable.\u00a0 The group may also consider David Trone\u2019s nearly unlimited finances, which helped outpoll their chosen candidate in CD8 last year, and conclude that it\u2019s not worth opposing him again.\u00a0 All of this means the group could do one of two things.\u00a0 First, it could make a modest investment in CD6, perhaps a couple hundred thousand dollars at most.\u00a0 That would only make a difference in a close race.\u00a0 Or second, as it has done in many races over the years<\/a>, it could invest nothing at all.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco. Recently, Emily\u2019s List announced its endorsement for CD6 candidate Aruna Miller, a move seen as significant in that race.\u00a0 Emily\u2019s List\u2019s Super PAC, Women Vote, has made millions of dollars in independent expenditures (IE) in federal races over the last five cycles.\u00a0 But how effective are they? Let\u2019s start in Maryland.\u00a0 In … Continue reading How Much Will Emily\u2019s List Spend in CD6?<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151,303],"tags":[1545,1598,1928,1337],"class_list":["post-8486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","category-aruna-miller","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-aruna-miller","tag-cd6","tag-emilys-list"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-2cS","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8486"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8486\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8494,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8486\/revisions\/8494"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}