{"id":8317,"date":"2017-08-01T07:00:31","date_gmt":"2017-08-01T11:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=8317"},"modified":"2017-07-30T20:32:26","modified_gmt":"2017-07-31T00:32:26","slug":"delaney-dominoes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=8317","title":{"rendered":"Delaney Dominoes"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n

From the perspective of political blogging (which we all know matters most!), Congressman John Delaney is the greatest Maryland politician of all time.\u00a0 That\u2019s not because of anything he has done in Congress.\u00a0 (No one does anything in Congress these days!)\u00a0 It\u2019s because his decision-making has affected the races for Governor, Congress District 6, County Executive, County Council and several State Senate and House of Delegates seats.\u00a0 This is an enormous bonanza for political junkies and will keep us VERY busy.\u00a0 We love you, John Delaney!<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a quick and dirty take on how the Delaney Dominoes are falling.<\/p>\n

Governor<\/strong><\/p>\n

None of the Democratic candidates for Governor fit Delaney\u2019s ideological center-left positioning.\u00a0 Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, who can claim that his jurisdiction has not increased either property or income taxes in twenty-five years<\/a>, might come closest.\u00a0 But the biggest impact of Delaney\u2019s absence may be geographic.\u00a0 With the Congressman out and former Attorney General Doug Gansler not showing signs of serious activity, Senator Rich Madaleno might be the only MoCo candidate in the race.\u00a0 That\u2019s a big deal.\u00a0 If Madaleno consolidates MoCo while three African American candidates run hard in the City and Prince George\u2019s, this race becomes very unpredictable.\u00a0 (Disclosure: your author has done work for Madaleno.)<\/em><\/p>\n

Congress District 6<\/strong><\/p>\n

Total Wine co-owner David Trone has been interviewing elected officials, activists, operatives and other local players for months as he figures out his options.\u00a0 Our hunch is that he will see Delaney\u2019s congressional district as his best play<\/a> and run there.\u00a0 He will join Delegates Bill Frick and Aruna Miller, Senator Roger Manno and former Democratic nominee Andrew Duck on the Democratic side.\u00a0 The Republicans should have a vigorous primary too as they have a real shot at the open seat.<\/p>\n

County Executive<\/strong><\/p>\n

If Trone runs for Congress, that will leave three term-limited Council Members \u2013 Roger Berliner, Marc Elrich and George Leventhal \u2013 as the only Democrats running for Executive at this moment.\u00a0 But given the fact that most Democrats voted for term limits<\/a> and anti-tax sentiment continues to linger, it\u2019s hard to believe that a non-Council Member will not get in.\u00a0 Trone\u2019s absence creates a void that could very well get filled.<\/p>\n

County Council<\/strong><\/p>\n

County Council candidates will all sigh in relief if Trone runs for Congress.\u00a0 That\u2019s because there have been rumors of a Trone Slate for months in which Trone would deposit his own money in a slate account to be drawn on by allied council candidates.\u00a0 With that possibility off the table, the at-large candidates are on their own. \u00a0\u00a0Since most are in public financing, it\u2019s unlikely that very many of them will accumulate large financial advantages of 3-to-1 to 4-to-1 over their nearest rivals.\u00a0 That makes for very competitive races in District 1 and at-large.<\/p>\n

State Legislative Districts<\/strong><\/p>\n

If Miller, Frick and Manno stay in the race for Congress until the end, that means there will be open seats in Districts 15, 16 and 19.\u00a0 In District 15, the recent custom has been for the incumbents to pick a new candidate to fill out their slate.\u00a0 (That is a big reason why Miller originally won her seat in 2010.)\u00a0 The question is whether any new candidate merits such a selection.\u00a0 A District 16 open seat race is like an Italian Sunday dinner: everyone shows up.\u00a0 An open seat in 2010 attracted thirteen candidates<\/a> and an open seat in 2014 attracted eight candidates<\/a>.\u00a0 There will be no rest for Delegates Ariana Kelly and Marc Korman!\u00a0 Manno\u2019s Senate seat will draw the interest of at least one Delegate, thereby creating at least one House opening.\u00a0 There are already three non-incumbents who have filed for the District 19 House seats<\/a> with more probably on the way.<\/p>\n

Add the above to actual or possible races in Council District 3, Legislative District 17 (House and maybe Senate), Legislative District 18 (House and Senate), Legislative District 20 (maybe House) and Legislative District 39 (House) and that makes 2018 the most politically active year in MoCo in decades.\u00a0 Enjoy folks, and remember to thank John Delaney the next time you see him!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco. From the perspective of political blogging (which we all know matters most!), Congressman John Delaney is the greatest Maryland politician of all time.\u00a0 That\u2019s not because of anything he has done in Congress.\u00a0 (No one does anything in Congress these days!)\u00a0 It\u2019s because his decision-making has affected the races for Governor, Congress … Continue reading Delaney Dominoes<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151,170,228,242,53],"tags":[1545,1778,1996,1572,1579,912,1485],"class_list":["post-8317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","category-district-15","category-district-16","category-district-19","category-rich-madaleno","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-david-trone","tag-district-15","tag-district-16","tag-district-19","tag-john-delaney","tag-rich-madaleno"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-2a9","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8317","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8317"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8317\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8320,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8317\/revisions\/8320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}