{"id":7740,"date":"2017-03-23T07:00:09","date_gmt":"2017-03-23T11:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=7740"},"modified":"2017-03-22T18:32:51","modified_gmt":"2017-03-22T22:32:51","slug":"washington-post-poll-shows-hogan-vulnerability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=7740","title":{"rendered":"Washington Post Poll Shows Hogan Vulnerability"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n

Governor Larry Hogan loves to discuss his high approval ratings in polls, which have usually been in the range of 60-70%.\u00a0 But a new Washington Post poll<\/a> that examines his reelection prospects shows that they are well below his approval numbers and provides hope to Maryland Democrats.<\/p>\n

The Post poll of March 16-19 has sample sizes of 914 adults and 841 registered voters.\u00a0 The margin of error for those two groups is 4 points, growing to 5.5 points for a half-sample and 6.5 points for the 317 respondents who live in Maryland\u2019s D.C. suburbs.\u00a0 These margins of error must be kept in mind when reading the poll \u2013\u00a0\u00a0effectively, only large gaps are meaningful for small sub-groups.<\/p>\n

With that significant caveat in mind, let\u2019s examine data on Hogan\u2019s reelection prospects.\u00a0 The Post asked respondents the following question: \u201cThinking about Maryland\u2019s Governor\u2019s race in 2018… if Larry Hogan ran for re-election as governor, do you think you would vote for him OR for the candidate nominated by the Democratic Party?\u201d\u00a0 Among adults, 39% said they would vote for Hogan and 36% said they would vote for the Democratic nominee, an advantage of 3 points for the Governor.\u00a0 Among registered voters, 41% said they would vote for Hogan and 37% said they would vote for the Democrat, a margin of plus 4.\u00a0 So far, this looks very much like Hogan\u2019s 4-point victory in 2014.<\/p>\n

But the sub-group results are more interesting.\u00a0 We compiled the Post\u2019s sub-group data<\/a> on this question in the presentation below.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s recall the margin of error estimates above.\u00a0 Margins of 10-15 points or less for small sub-groups are probably not very meaningful.\u00a0 That said, many of the Governor\u2019s strengths are predictable.\u00a0 He does well with Republicans, Conservatives, Whites and rural residents.\u00a0 He is weak among Democrats, liberals, African Americans and Prince George\u2019s residents.\u00a0 One item that stands out is his strength with seniors, with whom he has a 17-point advantage.\u00a0 Seniors are among the most reliable voters in any election.<\/p>\n

Now let\u2019s compare the geographic results of this poll with how the Governor actually performed in 2014.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The Governor appears stronger in the poll in Baltimore and the Washington suburbs, but weaker elsewhere than in 2014.\u00a0 This could be statistical noise due to large margins of error.\u00a0 But it could also be the result of tax fatigue in some Democratic strongholds, like Montgomery (where voters recently passed term limits by 40 points<\/a>) and Prince George\u2019s (where the County Executive proposed a 15% increase in property taxes two years ago<\/a>).\u00a0 It\u2019s hard to believe that the Governor is actually weaker in Anne Arundel and Howard, both of which have Republican Executives who are strongly favored for reelection.\u00a0 (And a random question: what pollster combines Baltimore City and County in one estimate?\u00a0 C\u2019Mon, Man!<\/a>)<\/p>\n

The big takeaway from the poll is this: Larry Hogan will not be coasting to reelection.\u00a0 Maryland is simply not wired that way.\u00a0 It has too many Democrats, African Americans, liberals, immigrants and people who are either employed by or do business with government at some level to give any GOP statewide incumbent a blowout win.\u00a0 From a purely political perspective, the Governor deserves credit for his focused message of tax cuts, job growth and reform (like redistricting) while trying his best to avoid distractions from the right, the left and Washington D.C.\u00a0 His approach gives him a path to victory in a rather blue state.\u00a0 But if the Democrats begin preparing now, play smart and field a good candidate for Governor, Larry Hogan can be defeated.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco. Governor Larry Hogan loves to discuss his high approval ratings in polls, which have usually been in the range of 60-70%.\u00a0 But a new Washington Post poll that examines his reelection prospects shows that they are well below his approval numbers and provides hope to Maryland Democrats. The Post poll of March … Continue reading Washington Post Poll Shows Hogan Vulnerability<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[151,1197,131],"tags":[1545,968,1538],"class_list":["post-7740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","category-larry-hogan","category-polls","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-larry-hogan","tag-polls"],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-20Q","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7740"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7740\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7743,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7740\/revisions\/7743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}