{"id":7073,"date":"2016-09-19T07:00:34","date_gmt":"2016-09-19T11:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=7073"},"modified":"2016-09-16T14:59:56","modified_gmt":"2016-09-16T18:59:56","slug":"beware-of-social-media-perception-bias","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=7073","title":{"rendered":"Beware of Social Media Perception Bias"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n

Politician X is a happy man.\u00a0 His advocacy for Issues A, B and C is wildly popular.\u00a0 His constituents adore him.\u00a0 He basks in praise every single day, with only a few complaining misanthropes \u2013 likely from the other political party \u2013 who can be safely ignored.\u00a0 He can do no wrong and is a lock for reelection.<\/p>\n

How does he know this?\u00a0 Because he has a few dozen friends on Facebook who tell him so!<\/p>\n

Politician Y is a happy woman.\u00a0 Her advocacy AGAINST issues A, B and C \u2013 the very things X is promoting \u2013 is also wildly popular.\u00a0 Her constituents shower praise on her every ten minutes and there is no way she can lose.\u00a0 Higher office surely beckons.<\/p>\n

How does she know this?\u00a0 Because her Facebook friends are just as adoring as X\u2019s friends.<\/p>\n

X\u2019s world is just as real \u2013 and just as unreal \u2013 as Y\u2019s world.\u00a0 Look at two examples.<\/p>\n

In Montgomery County, Robin Ficker\u2019s term limits charter amendment is a hot local issue.\u00a0 Those County Council Members who criticize it are lionized by the huge majority of their Facebook friends who weigh in.\u00a0 Judging by their comments, there is no way that term limits will pass.\u00a0 But go to Robin Ficker\u2019s page and the world changes.\u00a0 He is surrounded by dozens of people \u2013 sometimes much more when he runs ads \u2013 who encourage him to keep it up.\u00a0 Judging by what is said on Ficker\u2019s page, the voters will surely approve term limits by an overwhelming margin.<\/p>\n

It happened again at the state level when Governor Larry Hogan issued an Executive Order mandating that public schools start after Labor Day.\u00a0 Critics of the order who based their opposition primarily on educational considerations were egged on by three-quarters or more of their Facebook friends who commented.\u00a0 But the Facebook pages of Hogan and the policy\u2019s original architect, Comptroller Peter Franchot, swarmed with supporters who celebrated the order.\u00a0 Each side is convinced they\u2019re right.\u00a0 Each side is convinced they will be vindicated \u2013 both on the policy merits and politically \u2013 in the end.\u00a0 And each side is backed up by enthusiastic supporters, so how can either of them be wrong?<\/p>\n

Why does this happen?<\/p>\n

Social media is a great tool for political communications, but it is\u00a0subject to two forms of bias that can mislead politicians.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Friend Bias<\/u><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Politicians\u2019 Facebook pages almost never contain representative samples of the public.\u00a0 For the most part, Facebook friends or fans are personal friends and acquaintances mixed with people who are inclined to support the politician.\u00a0 Those who are indifferent or hostile to the politician, but still vote, are much less likely to enroll on the politician\u2019s page.\u00a0 The effect is akin to an elementary school play, in which the audience is comprised of parents and relatives of the children who are performing.\u00a0 Those children can do no wrong!\u00a0 Friend bias can be overcome to an extent by running ads from a fan page, as this will attract viewers who do not have a relationship with the politician.\u00a0 But don\u2019t run an ad unless you\u2019re prepared for what the outside world thinks!<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Comment Bias<\/u><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      While a relatively small number of loud voices tend to dominate social media, the vast majority of folks don\u2019t like to fight in public.\u00a0 So when Politician Y puts up a political statement, those who agree will say \u201cYes!\u201d and those who don\u2019t will be more likely to stay silent.\u00a0 The latter people simply don\u2019t want to be flamed and drawn into name-calling, shaming or other nastiness.\u00a0 Some of them may have another matter before the politician and don\u2019t want to risk retaliation.\u00a0 The combination of friend bias and comment bias creates a powerful illusion of mass approval even when it\u2019s not there.<\/p>\n

      This is high-tech tribalism.\u00a0 Every politician leads a tribe \u2013 the few dozen (or for the higher-ranking ones, several hundred) people who publicly agree with them on almost everything.\u00a0 This tribalism is so rigid that disagreeing tribes are barely acknowledged to exist.\u00a0 When they are, they are depicted as misguided and inferior.\u00a0 Politicians who lap up public adulation like cats who lap up milk love it.\u00a0 And some are deceived by it.<\/p>\n

      There\u2019s a lesson to be learned here.\u00a0 Social media is a valuable political, communication and organizing tool that is still evolving.\u00a0 If you can use it to get a couple thousand people to support your cause \u2013 and there are examples<\/a> out<\/a> there<\/a> \u2013 good for you.\u00a0 But if it results in the same group of a few dozen people always saying Yes to what you\u2019re proposing, don\u2019t believe that it represents genuine public opinion.\u00a0 If you do, then you\u2019re vulnerable to REAL public opinion catching up with you!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      By Adam Pagnucco. Politician X is a happy man.\u00a0 His advocacy for Issues A, B and C is wildly popular.\u00a0 His constituents adore him.\u00a0 He basks in praise every single day, with only a few complaining misanthropes \u2013 likely from the other political party \u2013 who can be safely ignored.\u00a0 He can do no wrong … Continue reading Beware of Social Media Perception Bias<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151,284],"tags":[1545,1201],"class_list":["post-7073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","category-facebook","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-facebook"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-1Q5","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7073","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7073"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7073\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7075,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7073\/revisions\/7075"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7073"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7073"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7073"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}