{"id":6708,"date":"2016-05-19T07:00:11","date_gmt":"2016-05-19T11:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=6708"},"modified":"2016-05-23T12:04:05","modified_gmt":"2016-05-23T16:04:05","slug":"cd8-primary-election-results-part-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=6708","title":{"rendered":"CD8 Primary Election Results, Part One"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0\u00a0A guest blog by Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n

It has been roughly three weeks since Maryland\u2019s primary election on April 26 and most of the results are in.\u00a0 All jurisdictions have reported returns from early voting, election day, absentee ballots and provisional ballots and unofficial precinct-level data files have been released<\/a>.\u00a0 While the City of Baltimore\u2019s results have some problems<\/a>, they are not relevant to Congressional District 8.\u00a0 The time for a data crunch has arrived.<\/p>\n

First, let\u2019s examine the overall results.<\/p>\n

\"CD8<\/p>\n

Senator Jamie Raskin was the leader in early votes, election day votes and absentee and provisional ballots, but his leads were of different magnitudes.\u00a0 Raskin won early votes by 16.1 points, a far larger margin than his wins in absentee and provisional votes (7 points), total votes (6.5 points) and election day votes (3.5 points).\u00a0 As we proceed to analyze precinct votes on election day, let\u2019s recognize that they underrate Raskin\u2019s strength relative to the total vote count.<\/p>\n

Here are total votes and election day votes by county for the top six candidates.<\/p>\n

\"CD8<\/p>\n

David Trone won an absolute majority of both total votes and election day votes in Carroll and Frederick Counties, but they comprised about a fifth of the electorate.\u00a0 Raskin won Montgomery County by 13.7% in total votes and 12.3% on election day.\u00a0 Kathleen Matthews placed second in all three counties.<\/p>\n

This partially obscures the story of geography at a macro level.\u00a0 Consider the following three areas: precincts inside the Beltway, precincts outside the Beltway and still in Montgomery, and Carroll and Frederick together.<\/p>\n

\"CD8<\/p>\n

Raskin won the Inside the Beltway precincts by 23.7% over Matthews, and since these are just election day votes, that probably understates his margin.\u00a0 But in the Outside the Beltway Montgomery precincts, Raskin and Trone were basically tied while Trone won the northern counties handily.\u00a0 Interestingly, more Montgomery County votes came from outside the Beltway than inside, but because Raskin had such huge support from inside precincts, he was able to withstand his opponents\u2019 performance in other areas.<\/p>\n

We will have a finer cut on geography in Part Two.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0\u00a0A guest blog by Adam Pagnucco. It has been roughly three weeks since Maryland\u2019s primary election on April 26 and most of the results are in.\u00a0 All jurisdictions have reported returns from early voting, election day, absentee ballots and provisional ballots and unofficial precinct-level data files have been released.\u00a0 While the City of Baltimore\u2019s results … Continue reading CD8 Primary Election Results, Part One<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151],"tags":[1301,1545,1778,1502,1308],"class_list":["post-6708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","tag-mdcd8","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-david-trone","tag-jamie-raskin","tag-kathleen-matthews"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-1Kc","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6708"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6708\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6788,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6708\/revisions\/6788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}