{"id":6648,"date":"2016-04-28T15:00:55","date_gmt":"2016-04-28T19:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=6648"},"modified":"2016-04-28T13:41:00","modified_gmt":"2016-04-28T17:41:00","slug":"cd8-the-aftermath","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=6648","title":{"rendered":"CD8: The Aftermath"},"content":{"rendered":"

A guest blog by Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n

For the sake of posterity, here are a few thoughts on The Aftermath of the historic race for Congress in District 8.<\/p>\n

Jamie Raskin<\/strong><\/p>\n

Senator (soon-to-be Congressman) Raskin is now the King of MoCo Progressives, a title he would have gained even if he had lost the election.\u00a0 Raskin is the King because of the kind of campaign he ran, which mixed liberal issues with a record of accomplishment, a dose of passion and a lot of inspiration.\u00a0 The fact that he had two well-financed opponents, one of whom was self-funded, played into his narrative.\u00a0 For progressives, he appealed to both their hearts and their brains.\u00a0 His vote percentage, currently about a third of the electorate, came from high-information voters, super-liberals and Downcounty residents, a desirable base for almost any MoCo candidate.\u00a0 It would not be a stretch to imagine that he had the support of 90% or more of the party activists who often play outsized parts in deciding County Council and state legislative races.<\/p>\n

All of this gives Raskin enormous potential influence over county politics.\u00a0 Chris Van Hollen was the most popular elected official in MoCo during his tenure in the U.S. House, but he was rather cautious about using that asset.\u00a0 He endorsed sparingly in primaries, and even then with great care.\u00a0 Examples include safe picks like County Executive Ike Leggett in 2014 and the incumbent state legislators in District 18, where he served as a State Senator and Delegate.\u00a0 Van Hollen never took chances on endorsing unknown or controversial candidates.\u00a0 Raskin will soon be approached by many politicians, incumbents and non-office holders alike, seeking his support.\u00a0 Will Raskin follow the Van Hollen model and stay out of most races?\u00a0 Or will he actively try to get very progressive candidates elected down the ballot?\u00a0 Lots of politicians and activists would like to know the answer to this question!<\/p>\n

David Trone<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ninety days ago, few voters had any idea who David Trone was.\u00a0 Many millions of dollars later, Trone finished six points behind Raskin, a margin that could tighten a little bit as absentee ballots are counted<\/a>.\u00a0 As David Lublin has noted, Trone ran a competent, professional campaign<\/a> that put batters on all the bases \u2013 advertising, mail and field.\u00a0 He bested Kathleen Matthews, who had been running for many months, and smoked the rest of the field.<\/p>\n

Trone should be encouraged by his showing in Carroll and Frederick Counties, where he finished with 53% and 52% of the vote, respectively (and that is before absentee counts come in).\u00a0 If Congressman John Delaney runs for Governor, Trone\u2019s performance in the two Western Maryland counties suggests that he has potential in Congressional District 6.\u00a0 If Trone would like to run for office again – and he is considering it<\/a> – one weakness that he should consider addressing is the allegation that he has not been involved in local affairs.\u00a0 Trone would be a great champion for the local business community, and he could also be a patron for Democratic Party activities and institutions.\u00a0 Projects like these would shore up his hometown credibility and set him up well for Round Two, whatever that might be.<\/p>\n

Kathleen Matthews<\/strong><\/p>\n

Along with U.S. Senate candidate Donna Edwards, Matthews was the biggest disappointment of the night.\u00a0 She ran a well-funded, female-oriented campaign against two leading opponents who were men.\u00a0 She had great fundraising and solid TV ads.\u00a0 The electorate is sixty percent female.\u00a0 Hillary Clinton won the presidential primary in Maryland by thirty points<\/a>.\u00a0 And yet Matthews finished third with 24% of the vote.\u00a0 How does that happen? \u00a0One theory is that Trone won over many of\u00a0the more moderate voters who might have found Matthews appealing, and there is something to that. \u00a0Another theory is that Matthews\u2019s campaign, along with that of Donna Edwards, illustrates the limitations of pure identity politics. \u00a0And finally, her generic campaign had little local dimension to it<\/a> and did not create sufficient distinction from her opponents.<\/p>\n

Ana Sol Gutierrez<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trailing badly in fundraising, mail and television, Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez still finished fourth.\u00a0 When the precinct results come in, she will probably have significant vote totals in Wheaton, Long Branch, Glenmont and areas near University Boulevard, all places with significant Latino populations.\u00a0 This will firmly entrench her as the Queen Mother of MoCo Latinos and also shows the latent political potential of that community.\u00a0 That\u2019s not a bad consolation prize.<\/p>\n

Will Jawando<\/strong><\/p>\n

When is it a candidate\u2019s time, and when is that time past?\u00a0 That is the key question with Will Jawando.\u00a0 His talent, charisma, intelligence and presentation skills are undeniable.\u00a0 He\u2019s a very good fundraiser and came close to winning a District 20 Delegate seat two years ago.\u00a0 And MoCo needs more young leaders of color.\u00a0 But Jawando was never going to win this race and now he has two losses on his record.\u00a0 Yes, candidates can come back from that \u2013 Marc Elrich, for example, lost four times before being elected to the County Council.\u00a0 But Elrich is an exception and repeated losses tend to reduce both support and fundraising capability for most candidates.\u00a0 Our hunch is that Jawando has one more good election in him that he would very much need to win.<\/p>\n

Another factor is the upcoming District 20 appointment process.\u00a0 The Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee will appoint a successor to Jamie Raskin\u2019s Senate seat when he vacates it.\u00a0 The appointee will most likely be one of the two freshman Delegates, David Moon or Will Smith.\u00a0 That will then open a Delegate seat vacancy.\u00a0 Jawando, who finished fourth in the House race in 2014, would have had a significant claim to that appointment.\u00a0 But running unsuccessfully against the King of MoCo Progressives \u2013 a man who has been the undeniable King of District 20 for a decade \u2013 hurts his chances.\u00a0 This was a missed opportunity all around.<\/p>\n

Kumar Barve<\/strong><\/p>\n

If voters voted on resumes, Delegate Kumar Barve would have won.\u00a0 He has been in office since 1990 and has adroitly climbed the Annapolis ladder to House Majority Leader and standing committee chair.\u00a0 He has been involved in every major policy debate at the state level for many years.\u00a0 And he\u2019s whip-smart, well-spoken and funny as hell.\u00a0 But Barve couldn\u2019t get traction in the race as he was drowned out by the better-funded candidates.\u00a0 Barve didn\u2019t get what he wanted, but MoCo residents will get something valuable as he goes back to Annapolis: a dedicated, substantive leader on environmental and transportation issues.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s about it for now.\u00a0 We will be following up with data on this election as it becomes available.\u00a0 In any event, one thing is sure: this race will be remembered around here for a long, LONG time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A guest blog by Adam Pagnucco. For the sake of posterity, here are a few thoughts on The Aftermath of the historic race for Congress in District 8. Jamie Raskin Senator (soon-to-be Congressman) Raskin is now the King of MoCo Progressives, a title he would have gained even if he had lost the election.\u00a0 Raskin … Continue reading CD8: The Aftermath<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[151],"tags":[1301,1545,1490,1778,1502,1308,1473,703],"class_list":["post-6648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","tag-mdcd8","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-ana-sol-gutierrez","tag-david-trone","tag-jamie-raskin","tag-kathleen-matthews","tag-kumar-barve","tag-will-jawando"],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-1Je","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6648","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6648"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6648\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6663,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6648\/revisions\/6663"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}