{"id":6275,"date":"2016-02-05T07:00:18","date_gmt":"2016-02-05T12:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=6275"},"modified":"2016-02-04T22:44:24","modified_gmt":"2016-02-05T03:44:24","slug":"three-strategies-for-winning-cd8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=6275","title":{"rendered":"Three Strategies for Winning CD8"},"content":{"rendered":"

Today, I am pleased to present a guest post from Adam Pagnucco:<\/em><\/p>\n

With roughly ten weeks until early voting begins in the 2016 primary, candidates for Congress in District 8 are entering the home stretch. Three candidates are leading the field, and each of them has a different strategy for winning. Whichever one of these strategies is best suited for the race will play a major role in determining the winner.<\/p>\n

And these strategies are:<\/p>\n

Spend<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Roll Call recently reported<\/a> that Total Wine co-owner David Trone made a $900,000 ten-day TV and radio ad buy in early February. Bethesda Magazine\u2019s Lou Peck wrote<\/a>, \u201cThe Trone campaign is making what is known in TV ad lingo as a 600-point buy: The aim is to ensure that 80 percent of adult viewers see an ad seven times or more.\u201d And since Trone has nearly limitless resources and has vowed to spend \u201cwhatever it takes\u201d<\/a> to win, we should expect to see more of this.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s put Trone\u2019s opening bid in context. First, in ten days, he spent more than Senator Jamie Raskin\u2019s entire cash on hand ($869,000) and almost as much as Kathleen Matthews\u2019 entire cash on hand ($1.1 million). Second, this one expenditure is almost equal to Chris Van Hollen\u2019s total spending in the 2002 primary<\/a> ($1.1 million). Third, it\u2019s more than half of what Congressional District 6 candidate John Delaney paid SKD Knickerbocker for media production and ad buys ($1.7 million) in the entire 2012 primary. And there\u2019s still three months to go.<\/p>\n

Trone must find Delaney\u2019s success encouraging. And he certainly has a success story to share<\/a>. But this year\u2019s CD8 race is different in many respects from the CD6 race in 2012.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. CD8 is jam-packed with liberal Democrats in Takoma Park, Silver Spring, Bethesda, Chevy Chase, Kensington and Wheaton, while half of CD6 is located in considerably less liberal Western Maryland. The latter district is indisputably more hospitable to self-made businessmen like Trone and Delaney.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
      \n
    1. Delaney\u2019s principal rival, then-State Senator Rob Garagiola, did not have an aggressive grassroots operation as does Senator Jamie Raskin.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
        \n
      1. The 2012 campaign did not feature a prominent female candidate like Kathleen Matthews.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
          \n
        1. Delaney was endorsed by Bill Clinton and the Washington Post<\/em>. Trone has no obvious connection to the Clintons and we will see what the Post<\/em> chooses to do.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Trone definitely has the attention of the other candidates, with Delegate Kumar Barve sending out an email titled \u201cFighting Big Bullies\u201d and Raskin stating, \u201cPublic office is something you earn, not something you buy.\u201d<\/a> Trone seems likely to break local race spending records. The big question is how CD8 Democratic primary voters will respond.<\/p>\n

          Organize<\/strong><\/h4>\n

          Jamie Raskin has built what is probably the biggest grassroots organizing operation in the county since Van Hollen\u2019s 2002 race. Unlike most candidates who hide their internal campaign measures, Raskin puts them out for all to see<\/a>. He has adeptly grown from his Takoma Park\/Silver Spring base and tapped into activist networks all over the district, aided by his legions of local elected endorsers<\/a>. He has responded to Kathleen Matthews by assembling a voluminous \u201cWomen for Jamie\u201d<\/a> group. And there is little question that a huge majority of the precinct-level liberal activists are with him.<\/p>\n

          The big question about Raskin is whether the time he is spending in Annapolis will impede his campaign\u2019s ability to grow. Raskin is a superb one-on-one and small group campaigner. No one is better in a backyard full of progressives. Unlike many people with his level of intellect, Raskin comes across as both smart AND likable \u2013 a great talent for a politician. But with Raskin tied up in the Mike Miller Senate Office Building through early April, those assets are not as deployable and they don\u2019t transfer quite as well to television or mail.<\/p>\n

          Another question about Raskin\u2019s network is how far it penetrates into the community. He definitely has the activist liberals who are critical for winning State Senate and Delegate races. But what about PTA officers and volunteers, civic association leaders, faith leaders and small business people? Raskin is going to be outspent by both Trone and Matthews and his network must be big enough to offset that. If it is, Raskin can corral the progressive vote and win.<\/p>\n

          Stand Out<\/strong><\/h4>\n

          Three, maybe four, candidates will have the resources to compete. All of them will have a progressive message. All of them will talk about standard Democratic issues that are also being raised in the presidential campaign. But only one of them is a woman and only one of them has 25 years of experience on television. That\u2019s Kathleen Matthews.<\/p>\n

          Let\u2019s understand that nearly 60% of Montgomery County\u2019s electorate<\/a> is female no matter how you cut the data. The Matthews campaign certainly gets that. Below is the cover of the eight-page foldout lit piece that is currently being distributed by their field operation. You don\u2019t need to see the rest of it; the cover says it all.<\/p>\n

          \"Matthews<\/a><\/p>\n

          Here\u2019s the reaction of the regular female voter who received that piece. \u201cIt\u2019s a nice brochure. I haven\u2019t thought about the race. But she is certainly hitting all the right marks for me as a female Dem. I have to admit that the thought of getting another woman in Congress, particularly someone with her knowledge and high profile, is tempting.\u201d<\/p>\n

          That\u2019s music to the ears of the Matthews campaign.<\/p>\n

          Matthews has a quiet, but growing field operation that is now roaming the district. Unlike Raskin, the campaign does not advertise its statistics. Her real strength is going to be on television. Trone can run all the ads he wants, but none of these candidates can match Matthews\u2019 abilities on camera. Her campaign\u2019s weakness is that it has not had much of a local dimension to this point<\/a>. But one TV ad on a hot local issue like Metro could go a long way towards remedying that. No one is better equipped than Matthews to do a film shot at a Metro station with frustrated riders, and then pivot to the camera declaring, \u201cMetro riders deserve better. When I am elected to Congress, I\u2019ll fight to fix Metro!\u201d Then the riders will shout, \u201cWe\u2019re Metro riders and we approve this message!<\/p>\n

          Folks, these are all competent campaigns and this race is turning into one for the ages. It\u2019s going to be a great three months until the end. Enjoy the ride!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Today, I am pleased to present a guest post from Adam Pagnucco: With roughly ten weeks until early voting begins in the 2016 primary, candidates for Congress in District 8 are entering the home stretch. Three candidates are leading the field, and each of them has a different strategy for winning. Whichever one of these … Continue reading Three Strategies for Winning CD8<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1330],"tags":[1301,1545,1778,1502,1308,1473],"class_list":["post-6275","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-eighth-congressional-district","tag-mdcd8","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-david-trone","tag-jamie-raskin","tag-kathleen-matthews","tag-kumar-barve"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-1Dd","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6275","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6275"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6275\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6278,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6275\/revisions\/6278"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6275"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6275"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6275"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}