{"id":5887,"date":"2015-12-01T07:00:44","date_gmt":"2015-12-01T12:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=5887"},"modified":"2015-12-01T00:40:41","modified_gmt":"2015-12-01T05:40:41","slug":"anti-immigrant-sentiment-and-republican-support","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=5887","title":{"rendered":"Anti-Immigrant Sentiment and Republican Support"},"content":{"rendered":"

While yesterday’s post looked at the growth of anti-immigrant, radical right populist parties in Europe<\/a>, today turns back to Maryland. Specifically, just how closely linked is anti-immigrant sentiment to support for Republicans?<\/p>\n

The election results from Question 4<\/a> from 2012 provide a handy snapshot of the views of voters on immigrants. Question 4 asked voters if they wanted to keep in place the Maryland Dream Act. The pro-immigrant side won a big victory when 58.9% of Marylanders voted in favor<\/a> of allowing undocumented immigrants to pay in-state college tuition under certain conditions.<\/p>\n

The county results on Question 4 turn out to be an excellent predictor of how each county voted in the 2012 presidential election. The scatterplot below shows that the share of a county’s voters that supported Romney or Hogan tended to increase in line with the share who voted no on Question 4.<\/p>\n

\"Q4<\/a>This was not a one off, as the same is true for the 2014 gubernatorial election. Support for the Republican Larry Hogan tended to rise with the share who voted no on Question 4.<\/p>\n

\"Q4<\/a>The correlation between the share who voted no and the share who voted for Romney in each county was a very high .96. (Correlations have a maximum of 1, which would indicate that one factor perfectly predicts the other.) The correlation between the no vote and vote for Hogan was the same .96.<\/p>\n

The next part of this series in immigration will compare the strength of immigration to other issues and demographic factors as predictor of election outcomes.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While yesterday’s post looked at the growth of anti-immigrant, radical right populist parties in Europe, today turns back to Maryland. Specifically, just how closely linked is anti-immigrant sentiment to support for Republicans? The election results from Question 4 from 2012 provide a handy snapshot of the views of voters on immigrants. Question 4 asked voters … Continue reading Anti-Immigrant Sentiment and Republican Support<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[83],"tags":[1739,968,1429,1738],"class_list":["post-5887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-immigration","tag-dream-act","tag-larry-hogan","tag-mitt-romney","tag-question-4"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-1wX","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5887","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5887"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5887\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5893,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5887\/revisions\/5893"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5887"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5887"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5887"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}