{"id":13725,"date":"2020-09-08T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-09-08T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=13725"},"modified":"2020-09-07T17:12:09","modified_gmt":"2020-09-07T21:12:09","slug":"should-moco-reopen-part-two","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=13725","title":{"rendered":"Should MoCo Reopen? Part Two"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Montgomery County\u2019s COVID-19 dashboard<\/a> is a great resource for judging the county\u2019s progress in its efforts to control the coronavirus. Unfortunately, it\u2019s not so great at enabling comparison with other jurisdictions, most of whom don\u2019t release data at that level of detail. Inter-jurisdictional comparison is relevant because both public health and economic competitiveness cross state and county lines. Also, if local leaders facing similar circumstances make different decisions, that\u2019s important for voters to know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Johns Hopkins University hosts data on COVID cases and deaths relative to population by county on its website<\/a>. On those two measures, here is how MoCo compares to other large jurisdictions in the region as of 9\/6\/20.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

MoCo is about average for the region in terms of cases per capita. It is above average on deaths per capita. Prince George\u2019s County has been hardest hit in terms of cases and, along with D.C., on deaths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data above illustrates the historical impact of COVID-19 but it\u2019s less helpful in understanding recent trends. The table below shows cases in the two most-recent 7 day periods (8\/24-8\/30 and 8\/31-9\/6) relative to population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

During the 8\/24-8\/30 period, MoCo had the lowest cases per capita of any large jurisdiction in the region. During the following week (8\/31-9\/6), MoCo was below the regional average and about equal to Baltimore City, Howard, Fairfax and Loudoun. It\u2019s worth noting that MoCo\u2019s cases per capita increased over the two weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MoCo is one of just four jurisdictions in Maryland (along with Baltimore City and Anne Arundel and Prince George\u2019s counties) that is not reopening in line with the state\u2019s phase 3. MoCo\u2019s cases per capita in the most recent week are roughly equal to or lower than Howard, which is proceeding to stage 3, and most of Northern Virginia, which has been operating under Virginia\u2019s phase 3 (which is less restrictive than Maryland\u2019s<\/a>) since July 1<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s the bottom line, folks: if reopening is a data driven decision, then the facts do not point exclusively in one direction. As seen here and in Part One<\/a>, supporters and opponents of reopening can each point to data that reinforces their respective points of view. Anyone who says that the data is completely with them is mistaken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, each side bears a burden in making their argument.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

County Executive Marc Elrich must explain why he continues to resist reopening despite improvement in the majority of the county\u2019s tracked measures<\/a>. He must also explain why some jurisdictions with similar or higher recent COVID case rates have proceeded to greater economic liberalization than MoCo, especially in Virginia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The critics have a different problem. Elrich has been very consistent in saying that public health is his top priority. In making that judgment, he is far from alone among MoCo residents. Critics have to acknowledge that further reopening creates greater risk. They must also explain why public health should not be considered the county\u2019s sole top priority, or at the very least why concessions on that issue are justified by economic recovery.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco. Montgomery County\u2019s COVID-19 dashboard is a great resource for judging the county\u2019s progress in its efforts to control the coronavirus. Unfortunately, it\u2019s not so great at enabling comparison with other jurisdictions, most of whom don\u2019t release data at that level of detail. Inter-jurisdictional comparison is relevant because both public health and economic … Continue reading Should MoCo Reopen? Part Two<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[151,2320],"tags":[1545,2321],"class_list":["post-13725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","category-covid-19","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-covid-19"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-3zn","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13725"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13725\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13728,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13725\/revisions\/13728"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}