{"id":11610,"date":"2018-08-01T07:00:12","date_gmt":"2018-08-01T11:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=11610"},"modified":"2018-07-31T21:42:21","modified_gmt":"2018-08-01T01:42:21","slug":"moco-gubernatorial-primary-precinct-results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=11610","title":{"rendered":"MoCo Gubernatorial Primary: Precinct Results"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>By Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Former NAACP President Ben Jealous won every county in Maryland in the Democratic primary except Prince George\u2019s and Calvert, where Prince George\u2019s County Executive Rushern Baker outpolled him.\u00a0 In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.montgomerycountymd.gov\/Elections\/Resources\/Files\/htm\/2018\/precinctresults\/Recount%20updated%20cumlative.HTM\">MoCo<\/a>, Jealous received 35.6% of the vote and Baker received 32.5%, a difference of 3.1 points.\u00a0 The precinct results we show below only include election day votes, which accounted for 68% of the votes cast for gubernatorial candidates in MoCo.\u00a0 Still, they show the patterns of voting for Jealous and Baker as well as for Senator Rich Madaleno (D-18), who finished third in the county, and former Michelle Obama aide Krish Vignarajah, who finished fourth.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, MoCo saw a two-man race between Jealous and Baker.\u00a0 Madaleno was a distant third; he finished first in Kensington but no higher than third anywhere else, including in District 18.\u00a0 Vignarajah was fourth overall but finished third in Council District 2, State Legislative District 39 and several areas mostly located in Upcounty.\u00a0 Generally speaking, Baker did well in white, wealthy areas in the southwest while Jealous won almost everywhere else.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jealous\u2019s Five Best Local Areas<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Brookeville: 48% (first)<\/li>\n<li>Takoma Park and Damascus: 46% (first)<\/li>\n<li>Montgomery Village: 43% (first)<\/li>\n<li>Silver Spring East County: 43% (first)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Jealous\u2019s Five Worst Local Areas<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bethesda: 31% (second)<\/li>\n<li>Leisure World: 31% (second)<\/li>\n<li>Potomac: 28% (second)<\/li>\n<li>Kensington: 28% (third)<\/li>\n<li>Chevy Chase: 25% (second)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Baker\u2019s Five Best Local Areas<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Cabin John: 41% (first)<\/li>\n<li>Bethesda: 39% (first)<\/li>\n<li>Leisure World: 39% (first)<\/li>\n<li>Potomac: 39% (first)<\/li>\n<li>Chevy Chase: 38% (first)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Baker\u2019s Five Worst Local Areas<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Glenmont\/Norbeck: 25% (second)<\/li>\n<li>Clarksburg: 24% (second)<\/li>\n<li>Poolesville: 24% (second)<\/li>\n<li>Brookeville: 24% (second)<\/li>\n<li>Damascus: 21% (second)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The racial differences in voting between Jealous and Baker can be easily seen in the demographic splits.\u00a0 Baker won majority white precincts and the size of his advantage grew as the white percentage rose.\u00a0 Jealous won \u201cmajority minority\u201d precincts by 14 points.<\/p>\n<p>One more factor to consider is the Washington Post, which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/democrats-should-choose-rushern-baker-for-maryland-governor\/2018\/05\/19\/97bd52aa-5947-11e8-858f-12becb4d6067_story.html?utm_term=.2df5e038700b\">endorsed Baker<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/chevy-chase-populism-in-maryland\/2017\/10\/29\/0e80e812-b8bb-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html?utm_term=.4548b1232d1c\">attacked Jealous<\/a>.\u00a0 In a forthcoming blog post, we will compare the performance of Council At-Large candidates endorsed by the Post to those who were endorsed by MCEA.\u00a0 The Post candidates\u2019 performance was strongest compared to those supported by MCEA in Chevy Chase, Cabin John, Bethesda and Potomac \u2013 many of the same places where Baker performed best and Jealous performed worst.<\/p>\n<p>We show the full splits below.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-Gap.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11614\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-Gap.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"460\" height=\"461\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-Gap.png 460w, https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-Gap-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-Gap-300x300.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 460px) 100vw, 460px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-District.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11612\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-District.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1210\" height=\"541\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-District.png 1210w, https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-District-300x134.png 300w, https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-District-768x343.png 768w, https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-District-1024x458.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1210px) 100vw, 1210px\" \/><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-Local-Area.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11613\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-Local-Area.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1210\" height=\"781\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-Local-Area.png 1210w, https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-Local-Area-300x194.png 300w, https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-Local-Area-768x496.png 768w, https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-Local-Area-1024x661.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1210px) 100vw, 1210px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-Demographics.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11611\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-Demographics.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1210\" height=\"461\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-Demographics.png 1210w, https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-Demographics-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-Demographics-768x293.png 768w, https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Gov-by-Demographics-1024x390.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1210px) 100vw, 1210px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>While Jealous won MoCo, he lost in the wealthy areas that tend to have disproportionate numbers of campaign contributors.\u00a0 That\u2019s an important fact to note since <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=11566\">Jealous is trailing Governor Larry Hogan badly in fundraising from MoCo<\/a>.\u00a0 Jealous should tap into any MoCo surrogates he has, especially in Chevy Chase, Bethesda, Potomac and Kensington, to help him fortify those areas and raise money from them.\u00a0 If they don\u2019t come around to the Democratic nominee, Jealous\u2019s path to Government House will be that much harder.<\/p>\n<p>Next, we will begin looking at the County Executive candidates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Adam Pagnucco. Former NAACP President Ben Jealous won every county in Maryland in the Democratic primary except Prince George\u2019s and Calvert, where Prince George\u2019s County Executive Rushern Baker outpolled him.\u00a0 In MoCo, Jealous received 35.6% of the vote and Baker received 32.5%, a difference of 3.1 points.\u00a0 The precinct results we show below only &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=11610\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">MoCo Gubernatorial Primary: Precinct Results<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151,53,176],"tags":[1545,1977,2132,1485,1553],"class_list":["post-11610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","category-rich-madaleno","category-rushern-baker","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-ben-jealous","tag-krish-vignarajah","tag-rich-madaleno","tag-rushern-baker"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-31g","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11610"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11610\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11618,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11610\/revisions\/11618"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}