{"id":11377,"date":"2018-06-28T07:00:12","date_gmt":"2018-06-28T11:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=11377"},"modified":"2018-06-27T17:16:10","modified_gmt":"2018-06-27T21:16:10","slug":"does-blair-have-a-chance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=11377","title":{"rendered":"Does Blair Have a Chance?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n

With early votes and election day votes counted, Marc Elrich leads David Blair by 452 votes<\/a> to win the Democratic County Executive nomination.\u00a0 This would be a close margin in a House of Delegates race but it\u2019s incredibly close for a county-wide race.\u00a0 The final outcome will now be decided by absentee and provisional ballots.\u00a0 Does Blair have a chance or will Elrich hold on to win?<\/p>\n

According to Bethesda Magazine<\/a>, the county\u2019s Board of Elections received 4,900 Democratic absentee ballots as of Monday.\u00a0 In addition, 3,614 provisional ballots were cast but that total includes all parties.\u00a0 For the sake of discussion, let\u2019s assume that 2,500 of those provisional ballots came from Democrats.\u00a0 If there are only 5,000 Democratic absentee ballots received, that is 7,500 outstanding votes.\u00a0 A higher end assumption would be that 7,500 Democratic absentee ballots come in, resulting in 10,000 outstanding votes.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s do a math exercise on the final outcome of the absentee and provisional votes.\u00a0 In the first scenario, let\u2019s assume that the percentages of three categories \u2013 Blair\u2019s percentage, Elrich\u2019s percentage and the percentage of all the other candidates \u2013 exactly match the shares recorded during early and election day voting.\u00a0 In this scenario, Elrich picks up between 30 and 40 votes more than Blair and he would win.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Now let\u2019s do a scenario in which Blair wins.\u00a0 Since Blair and Elrich are the top two and no one else is even close, it\u2019s the margin between them that will determine the victor.\u00a0 In this second scenario, we will hold the percentage of all the other candidates constant and merely adjust the totals for Blair and Elrich.\u00a0 Adding 3.3 points to Blair and subtracting 3.3 points from Elrich produces a net gain for Blair of 465 votes in a 7,500 vote universe, enough to win.\u00a0 That margin would go up to 620 votes in a 10,000 vote universe.\u00a0 But note that this scenario requires Blair to lead Elrich by 6.2 points among these groups, a very different result than Elrich\u2019s 0.4 point lead in early and election day votes.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

We adjusted the percentage for the other candidates up and down and didn\u2019t find much change in the margin Blair needs, which is more than six points over Elrich.\u00a0 Again, this is a departure from the cumulative early vote and election day totals.<\/p>\n

Will it happen?\u00a0 Readers, you tell us!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco. With early votes and election day votes counted, Marc Elrich leads David Blair by 452 votes to win the Democratic County Executive nomination.\u00a0 This would be a close margin in a House of Delegates race but it\u2019s incredibly close for a county-wide race.\u00a0 The final outcome will now be decided by absentee … Continue reading Does Blair Have a Chance?<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151,492,84],"tags":[1545,1627,1938,1508],"class_list":["post-11377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","category-county-executive","category-marc-elrich","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-county-executive","tag-david-blair","tag-marc-elrich"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-2Xv","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11377"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11377\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11385,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11377\/revisions\/11385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}