{"id":11229,"date":"2018-06-22T15:22:32","date_gmt":"2018-06-22T19:22:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=11229"},"modified":"2018-06-22T15:22:32","modified_gmt":"2018-06-22T19:22:32","slug":"moco-early-voters-are-not-who-you-think","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=11229","title":{"rendered":"MoCo Early Voters Are Not Who You Think"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n

Early voting wrapped up yesterday and the State Board of Elections has posted results<\/a>.\u00a0 Folks, we can say this: a wild race just got a whole lot wilder.<\/p>\n

First, as we saw from the first day of early voting<\/a>, turnout is waaaay up.\u00a0 Here is the distribution by party in the 2014 and 2018 primaries.<\/p>\n

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Early voting is up for everyone but especially for Democrats.<\/p>\n

Now here is the early voting by Congressional, State Legislative and County Council districts.<\/p>\n

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The biggest increases in early voting have occurred in State District 15, State District 16, Council District 1 and Congressional District 6.\u00a0 The lowest increases \u2013 by far \u2013 have occurred in State District 20 and Council District 5.<\/p>\n

Below we show early voting by gender and age group.<\/p>\n

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Women have an edge here but not a huge one.\u00a0 The age group results are astounding.\u00a0 Turnout is up by a gigantic amount for people aged 18 through 24.\u00a0 It went up by the least amount for people aged 45 through 64.<\/p>\n

Additionally, one of the campaigns analyzed the voting patterns of those who voted early for us.\u00a0 Roughly half the Democratic early voters had voted in at least two of the last three mid-term primaries (2006, 2010 and 2014).\u00a0 The other half had voted less regularly or not at all.<\/p>\n

We draw the following tentative conclusions from this data.<\/p>\n

1.\u00a0 Voters in Congressional District 6 and nearby areas turned out more strongly than the rest of the county.\u00a0 This might reflect the intense campaigning of the congressional candidates there and especially the massive spending by David Trone.\u00a0 This is good news for countywide candidates who run strong in those places.<\/p>\n

2.\u00a0 Voters in District 20 \u2013 the liberal heart of MoCo that includes Takoma Park and inside-the-Beltway Silver Spring \u2013 did not turn out to the same extent.\u00a0 This is not a great thing for countywide candidates whose base is in that area and is especially bad for County Executive candidate Marc Elrich.<\/p>\n

3.\u00a0 Tons and tons of voters who are not targeted by most campaigns \u2013 especially young people, irregular voters and new voters \u2013 have come out and are roughly equal to the super Dems.\u00a0 This adds an element of unpredictability to the race.\u00a0 For the most part, these voters are not getting overwhelmed by mail, door knocks and phone calls as are super Dems.\u00a0 How are they getting information on local races?\u00a0 Television is one source.\u00a0 Those campaigns with the resources for a huge target universe (like Trone and David Blair) are communicating with them while others are not.\u00a0 If they are using Google to research candidates, they are encountering sources like Bethesda Magazine and the blogs since few other sites write about down-ticket races.\u00a0 Some of them may not be voting down-ticket at all and may only be casting votes for Governor and Congress.<\/p>\n

4.\u00a0 And finally, we offer our standard caveat: we don\u2019t know if higher early voting will cannibalize from election day voting or add to it.\u00a0 We won\u2019t know that until Tuesday night.<\/p>\n

This is a helluva race, folks.\u00a0 Every time we think we might be starting to figure it out \u2013 BAM! \u2013 something unexpected happens.\u00a0 If you\u2019re a MoCo political junkie like we are, this election is one for the ages!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco. Early voting wrapped up yesterday and the State Board of Elections has posted results.\u00a0 Folks, we can say this: a wild race just got a whole lot wilder. First, as we saw from the first day of early voting, turnout is waaaay up.\u00a0 Here is the distribution by party in the 2014 … Continue reading MoCo Early Voters Are Not Who You Think<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[151,227],"tags":[1545,1571],"class_list":["post-11229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","category-early-voting","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-early-voting"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-2V7","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11229"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11229\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11233,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11229\/revisions\/11233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}