{"id":10778,"date":"2018-05-31T07:00:21","date_gmt":"2018-05-31T11:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=10778"},"modified":"2018-05-31T00:33:27","modified_gmt":"2018-05-31T04:33:27","slug":"marc-elrich-i-prefer-to-put-jobs-in-frederick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=10778","title":{"rendered":"Marc Elrich: \u201cI Prefer to Put Jobs in Frederick\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n

Yesterday, Greater Greater Washington (GGW) wrote a long essay<\/a> about Council Member Marc Elrich, who is running for Executive.\u00a0 GGW has many disagreements with Elrich about smart growth and housing and mostly concentrated on those issues.\u00a0 But the essay contained this quote from an interview with Elrich.<\/p>\n

Broadly, Elrich isn’t convinced Montgomery County needs to add many new homes or residents, or jobs. Many people with jobs in Bethesda or DC are now living in Frederick County and other outlying areas and driving through Montgomery to get to work. We asked Elrich what he\u2019d do for these folks, and his answer was, \u201cI prefer to put jobs in Frederick.\u201d He\u2019d encourage the growth of both households and jobs to happen there, and in Prince George\u2019s County, and elsewhere.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Elrich has disputed quotes before<\/a> and we will see if he disputes this one.\u00a0 But if the quote is accurate\u2026 well.<\/p>\n

The chart below uses data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to compare growth in total employment in Frederick and MoCo from 2001 through 2016.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Frederick\u2019s job creation record is clearly better than MoCo\u2019s in both absolute and relative terms.<\/p>\n

Now let\u2019s use BLS data to compare growth in establishment counts in the two counties.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Frederick beats MoCo in growth rate and, over the last decade, in net new establishment count too.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s bear in mind the relative size of the two counties.\u00a0 Frederick has about a quarter of MoCo\u2019s population.\u00a0 Yet, Frederick has created a larger absolute number of jobs over the last fifteen years than MoCo and had a net gain since 2006 while MoCo had a net loss.\u00a0 In terms of establishments, Frederick created more than double what MoCo did over the last decade despite being much smaller.<\/p>\n

Now let\u2019s recall the research we did three weeks ago on taxpayer migration<\/a>.\u00a0 MoCo is often compared to Fairfax, but the truth is that we have lost more taxpayer income to Frederick than to Fairfax over the last decade<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Between 2006 and 2016, MoCo had a net outmigration of $582 million in real adjusted gross income to Frederick.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The greatest losses to Frederick occurred during MoCo\u2019s home price boom of 2002 through 2007.\u00a0 MoCo home prices are rising again<\/a> so let\u2019s connect the economic dots.\u00a0 Suppose we cut off housing construction in the ways Elrich described to Greater Greater Washington<\/a>.\u00a0 Unless there is a recession \u2013 which would bring a different set of problems \u2013 a housing shutdown in MoCo would cause more home price and rent hikes, exacerbating our already oppressive cost of living and pushing some folks into Frederick.\u00a0 Once in Frederick, some of those people would start businesses, hire people and create more economic activity there.\u00a0 That\u2019s great for Frederick and it\u2019s part of the explanation for the growth they have seen in the last fifteen years.\u00a0 But what exactly does that do for us?<\/p>\n

Look, folks \u2013 with surging needs in schools, transportation and everything else and with maxed out county debt<\/a>, we have a lot of bills to pay.\u00a0 There are two ways to do it.\u00a0 Option one is to grow our commercial tax base and create jobs, thereby generating more tax revenue. \u00a0Option two is more big tax hikes which will further strain the cost of living.<\/p>\n

If we have a County Executive who is fighting to put jobs in Frederick and NOT in MoCo, which option do you think our county will pick?<\/p>\n

Disclosure: the author supports Roger Berliner for Executive.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco. Yesterday, Greater Greater Washington (GGW) wrote a long essay about Council Member Marc Elrich, who is running for Executive.\u00a0 GGW has many disagreements with Elrich about smart growth and housing and mostly concentrated on those issues.\u00a0 But the essay contained this quote from an interview with Elrich. Broadly, Elrich isn’t convinced Montgomery … Continue reading Marc Elrich: \u201cI Prefer to Put Jobs in Frederick\u201d<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151,338,66,84,63],"tags":[1545,1993,1495,1508,1493],"class_list":["post-10778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","category-economy","category-frederick-county","category-marc-elrich","category-montgomery-county","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-economy","tag-frederick-county","tag-marc-elrich","tag-montgomery-county"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-2NQ","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10778","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10778"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10778\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10789,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10778\/revisions\/10789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}