{"id":10484,"date":"2018-05-14T07:00:51","date_gmt":"2018-05-14T11:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=10484"},"modified":"2018-05-13T13:20:08","modified_gmt":"2018-05-13T17:20:08","slug":"what-the-posts-endorsement-of-blair-means","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=10484","title":{"rendered":"What the Post\u2019s Endorsement of Blair Means"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n

The Washington Post\u2019s endorsement of businessman David Blair hit like a grenade this past weekend, blowing up the County Executive race.\u00a0 What does it mean?<\/p>\n

First, in reading the language of the Post\u2019s endorsement<\/a>, we are struck by how closely their views on the challenges facing the county resemble our own.\u00a0 The majority of these opening three paragraphs mirror what we have been writing about the county economy for years<\/a>.<\/p>\n

These seem like boom times in Montgomery County, the mainly rich suburb that has absorbed roughly 100,000 new residents since 2010 to a population now approaching 1.1 million. Amazon (whose CEO, Jeffrey P. Bezos, owns The Post) has shortlisted the county for its second corporate headquarters; construction cranes tower over Bethesda and Silver Spring; and the public school system, one of the nation\u2019s largest, includes some of the best high schools anywhere.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why it\u2019s easy to overlook some ominous signs of fiscal and economic trouble ahead. A burgeoning population of retirees, immigrants and other less affluent residents has strained local resources and budgets. Those moving into the county tend to be poorer than those leaving. The chasm between economically prosperous pockets (such as the ones dominated by cranes) and stagnant ones is widening. Most worrying, business and job growth are anemic.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the unsettling backdrop for the June 26 Democratic primary, which is likely to determine who will run the county for the next four years. County Executive Isiah Leggett, a deft and capable manager, is retiring after 12 years in the job (and no Republican has won an election in Montgomery since 2002). The central question is which of the candidates for county executive is most capable of juicing a sluggish commercial environment \u2014 the only way to broaden the local tax base so it can sustain the county\u2019s excellent schools and progressive services.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The Post framed the election\u2019s central question correctly.\u00a0 And their policy view, clearly established in the language above, will no doubt influence their choices for County Council.\u00a0 That said, they do not share your author\u2019s view that governing experience is useful for addressing these challenges<\/a>.\u00a0 So be it.<\/p>\n

The Post has a pretty good record in top-tier MoCo Democratic primaries.\u00a0 They endorsed Chris Van Hollen<\/a> (CD-8) in 2002, Ike Leggett (County Executive) in 2006<\/a> and 2014<\/a> and John Delaney<\/a> (CD-6) in 2012.\u00a0 They also endorsed Kathleen Matthews<\/a> (CD-8) in 2016, who finished third.<\/p>\n

Even so, the Post is not a king-maker; one of the good things about MoCo politics is that we have no king-makers here.\u00a0 But their endorsement matters, especially when five candidates are vying to be the chief rival for Marc Elrich<\/a>.\u00a0 Consider what Roger Berliner (your author\u2019s choice<\/a>), Bill Frick or Rose Krasnow would have said if they had gotten the Post endorsement.\u00a0 If Berliner had received it, he would have told non-Elrich voters, \u201cI am the one who combines the Sierra Club<\/a>, moderates, District 1 voters and now the Post.\u00a0 I\u2019m the alternative to Elrich.\u201d\u00a0 Frick would have said something similar while substituting realtors<\/a> for the Sierra Club.\u00a0 If Krasnow had received it, she would have said, \u201cI am the only woman in a primary in which sixty percent of voters will be women<\/a> and now I have the Post.\u00a0 I\u2019m the alternative to Elrich.\u201d\u00a0 None of these things can be said now.\u00a0 All three lose the opportunity to leverage the Post endorsement to expand outside their geographic bases.<\/p>\n

It is sometimes said that Elrich has a ceiling.\u00a0 Some voters will find a decades-long socialist<\/a> who equates transit-oriented development with ethnic cleansing<\/a> and favors rent control<\/a> unappealing.\u00a0 But Blair has a ceiling too.\u00a0 That was expressed by a commenter on Seventh State\u2019s Facebook page who wrote, \u201cI don\u2019t want a businessman political newcomer who is trying to buy the election.\u201d\u00a0 Fair or not, that is a common sentiment among Democratic activists, and those who feel this way are not persuadable on this point.\u00a0 Blair can send them thirty mailers and they won\u2019t budge.\u00a0 How many rank-and-file voters have this view?\u00a0 David Trone, who shares this handicap, received 22% of MoCo\u2019s vote in the 2016 Congressional District 8 race<\/a>.\u00a0 That\u2019s an imperfect analogy because CD8 omits some relatively moderate areas in MoCo\u2019s Upcounty and Trone was not talking about the unpopular nine percent property tax hike in his campaign.\u00a0 Still, Blair will need more than 22% to win.<\/p>\n

Besides Blair, the other big winner from the Post\u2019s endorsement is Elrich.\u00a0 Elrich has been crusading against rival candidates who have been supported by wealthy businessmen for years; now he gets an ACTUAL wealthy businessman as perhaps his chief opponent.\u00a0 Elrich is no doubt rubbing his hands together in glee as his progressive hordes gird for battle against plutocracy.\u00a0 His field coordinator must be dizzy with joy.<\/p>\n

Both the Elrich and Blair campaigns need to consider the following question.\u00a0 Which group is larger in the Democratic primary electorate: the people who believe that taxes have gone up but their service quality has not or the people in Elrich\u2019s base?\u00a0 If the former outnumber the latter \u2013 not an impossible prospect considering that a majority of Democrats voted for term limits two years ago<\/a> \u2013 then maybe an outsider has a shot.\u00a0 It would be totally unprecedented given that every prior MoCo Executive has had governing experience before assuming office<\/a>.\u00a0 But Robin Ficker winning a charter amendment vote by forty points was also unprecedented.<\/p>\n

Thanks to the Post, a wild election has gotten a little wilder.\u00a0 There are only forty-three days to go before this story reaches its momentous conclusion!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco. The Washington Post\u2019s endorsement of businessman David Blair hit like a grenade this past weekend, blowing up the County Executive race.\u00a0 What does it mean? First, in reading the language of the Post\u2019s endorsement, we are struck by how closely their views on the challenges facing the county resemble our own.\u00a0 The … Continue reading What the Post\u2019s Endorsement of Blair Means<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151,272,492,84,46,185],"tags":[1545,441,1627,1938,1508,1480,2064,937],"class_list":["post-10484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","category-bill-frick","category-county-executive","category-marc-elrich","category-roger-berliner","category-washington-post","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-bill-frick-2","tag-county-executive","tag-david-blair","tag-marc-elrich","tag-roger-berliner","tag-rose-krasnow","tag-washington-post-2"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-2J6","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10484"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10484\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10498,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10484\/revisions\/10498"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}