{"id":10425,"date":"2018-05-10T11:30:36","date_gmt":"2018-05-10T15:30:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=10425"},"modified":"2018-05-10T08:07:17","modified_gmt":"2018-05-10T12:07:17","slug":"taxpayer-flight-from-moco-part-four","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=10425","title":{"rendered":"Taxpayer Flight from MoCo, Part Four"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n

In Part Three<\/a>, we saw that MoCo\u2019s problem of taxpayer flight is shared by most jurisdictions in the Washington region.\u00a0 But what happens when we look at MoCo\u2019s taxpayer inflows and outflows to and from each of its large neighbors?\u00a0 From whom does MoCo gain income on net?\u00a0 And to whom does MoCo lose income on net?<\/p>\n

We looked at net gains and losses between MoCo and nine other local jurisdictions plus two states.\u00a0 Let\u2019s start with the two jurisdictions from which MoCo has net gains of taxpayer income: D.C. and Prince George\u2019s.<\/p>\n

District of Columbia<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: +1,070 (inflow)<\/p>\n

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: +$417 million (inflow)<\/p>\n

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $94,696<\/p>\n

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $83,038<\/p>\n

Migrant income gap: In-migrants earned 12% more than out-migrants<\/p>\n

MoCo almost always drains tens of millions of dollars in taxpayer income each year from D.C.\u00a0 That\u2019s because it gets more in-migrants from D.C. than out-migrants and the in-migrants make more.\u00a0 This fits a pattern of young people living in D.C. and then moving to the suburbs as their incomes grow and they are ready to have kids.\u00a0 However, as D.C.\u2019s economy has improved since the 1990s, the District\u2019s net income flow to MoCo has diminished over time.\u00a0 In 2015, D.C. even netted a gain of $40 million from MoCo, the first time the District ended up on the plus side of this ledger since this data series began in 1993.<\/p>\n

Prince George\u2019s County<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: +834 (inflow)<\/p>\n

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: +$39 million (inflow)<\/p>\n

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $42,894<\/p>\n

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $42,802<\/p>\n

Migrant income gap: In-migrants earned about the same as out-migrants<\/p>\n

In the 1990s, MoCo consistently enjoyed positive income inflows from Prince George\u2019s, but that began to change in the 2000s.\u00a0 In the last fifteen years, MoCo lost money to Prince George\u2019s seven times.\u00a0 MoCo may still have a slight advantage but it\u2019s very tenuous and could slip away.<\/p>\n

Alexandria City<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: -346 (outflow)<\/p>\n

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: -$7 million (outflow)<\/p>\n

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $78,961<\/p>\n

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $73,304<\/p>\n

Migrant income gap: In-migrants earned 7% more than out-migrants<\/p>\n

There\u2019s not a ton of migration between MoCo and Alexandria and the two jurisdictions roughly break even, although MoCo\u2019s balance has deteriorated a bit in recent years.<\/p>\n

Arlington County<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: -1,103 (outflow)<\/p>\n

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: -$8 million (outflow)<\/p>\n

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $85,154<\/p>\n

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $72,852<\/p>\n

Migrant income gap: Out-migrants earned 14% more than in-migrants<\/p>\n

As with Alexandria, MoCo roughly breaks even with Arlington.\u00a0 Again, MoCo\u2019s balance has gotten slightly worse in recent years.<\/p>\n

Prince William County<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: -289 (outflow)<\/p>\n

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: -$33 million (outflow)<\/p>\n

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $50,076<\/p>\n

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $57,436<\/p>\n

Migrant income gap: Out-migrants earned 15% more than in-migrants<\/p>\n

Prince William has received small inflows of income from MoCo that have diminished in recent years.\u00a0 Most people moving between the two counties fall in the lower end of the region\u2019s income distribution.<\/p>\n

We will conclude tomorrow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco. In Part Three, we saw that MoCo\u2019s problem of taxpayer flight is shared by most jurisdictions in the Washington region.\u00a0 But what happens when we look at MoCo\u2019s taxpayer inflows and outflows to and from each of its large neighbors?\u00a0 From whom does MoCo gain income on net?\u00a0 And to whom does … Continue reading Taxpayer Flight from MoCo, Part Four<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151,338],"tags":[1545,1993,2182],"class_list":["post-10425","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","category-economy","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-economy","tag-taxpayer-flight-series"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-2I9","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10425","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10425"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10425\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10432,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10425\/revisions\/10432"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10425"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10425"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10425"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}