{"id":10012,"date":"2018-04-02T07:00:27","date_gmt":"2018-04-02T11:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=10012"},"modified":"2018-04-01T13:30:45","modified_gmt":"2018-04-01T17:30:45","slug":"democratic-voter-registration-has-fallen-since-trumps-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/?p=10012","title":{"rendered":"Democratic Voter Registration Has Fallen Since Trump\u2019s Election"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco.<\/em><\/p>\n

Despite a wave of anti-Trump activism from the left, Democratic voter registration in Maryland has actually fallen since the President\u2019s election in November 2016.\u00a0 Is that a problem?<\/p>\n

To answer that question, let\u2019s start with this fact: since November 2016, voter registration among Maryland Democrats has dropped from 2,179,948<\/a> to 2,134,776<\/a> in February 2018.\u00a0 That\u2019s a decline of 2%.\u00a0 Over the same period, voter registration has dropped by 2% among Republicans, risen by 2% among independents and other party members and declined 1% overall.<\/p>\n

The state\u2019s voter registration numbers<\/a> go back to 2000.\u00a0 Over that period, while registration has risen generally, it is tied to election cycles.\u00a0 After each general election, registration drops, but then begins rising prior to the next general election.\u00a0 The chart below shows that pattern clearly for all categories of voters.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Each election cycle has seen an inflection point, a month in which registration has stopped falling and started rising steadily through the next general election.\u00a0 Over the last four presidential cycles, the inflection point has occurred on average fifteen months before the general election.\u00a0 Over the last four gubernatorial cycles, the inflection point has occurred on average eight months before the general election.\u00a0 Here are the registration gains by category from average inflection point to general election in each of those cycles.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

A few things stand out.\u00a0 First, registration gains are far higher in presidential cycles than in gubernatorial cycles.\u00a0 Second, the long-term trend in both kinds of cycles is decline in the rate of gain.\u00a0 Third, a sharp fall in registration gains among non-Democrats and non-Republicans in the 2016 cycle may reflect significant discontent with the two major party nominees.\u00a0 And fourth and most relevant, flat-lining Democratic registration may have been a portent of Anthony Brown\u2019s loss in 2014.<\/p>\n

What is happening now?\u00a0 Our latest data point is February 2018, fifteen months after the 2016 general election.\u00a0 We compared voter registration gains from the last presidential election to fifteen months later over the last five cycles to put the last fifteen months in perspective.\u00a0 Overall, it\u2019s normal for registration to fall over that period of time.\u00a0 On average, registration is down 2% for Democrats and Republicans, up 2% for others and down 1% overall for those 15-month periods.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

From November 2016 through February 2018, voter registration fell among Democrats and Republicans by 2%, rose among independents and other party members by 2%, and fell for all voters by 1%.\u00a0 These are the exact same rates as the average for the last five cycles.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This goes against the prevailing narrative that President Trump\u2019s conduct in office is producing a revival of the Democratic Party.\u00a0 It\u2019s true that Democrats have put together a string of special election wins around the country<\/a> and many analysts are predicting that they might take over one or both chambers in Congress.\u00a0 It\u2019s also true that changes in registration don\u2019t always correspond to changes in actual voting<\/a>.\u00a0 But in Maryland, at least on the measure of voter registration, Democrats have not appeared to capitalize on anti-Trumpism to bolster their ranks.\u00a0 Voter registration trends are behaving normally, not abnormally as one might expect in the age of resistance to Trump.<\/p>\n

This is good news for Governor Larry Hogan.\u00a0 As for Maryland Democrats, perhaps questions should be asked.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Adam Pagnucco. Despite a wave of anti-Trump activism from the left, Democratic voter registration in Maryland has actually fallen since the President\u2019s election in November 2016.\u00a0 Is that a problem? To answer that question, let\u2019s start with this fact: since November 2016, voter registration among Maryland Democrats has dropped from 2,179,948 to 2,134,776 in … Continue reading Democratic Voter Registration Has Fallen Since Trump\u2019s Election<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151,1067,226],"tags":[1545,1674,2159],"class_list":["post-10012","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-pagnucco","category-maryland-democratic-party","category-voter-registration","tag-adam-pagnucco","tag-maryland-democratic-party","tag-voter-registration"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4mKJE-2Bu","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10012","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10012"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10012\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10015,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10012\/revisions\/10015"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theseventhstate.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}