2022 Demcratic Primary, Montgomery County Board of Elections, Montgomery County Executive

42 Votes. Will the Recount Change the Outcome?

Probably not. Here’s why.

Ballots are cast in three different ways. Recounting them is unlikely to change matters.

The first type is cast on DRE machines that directly record the vote electronically. Adding them up again will produce the exact same results.

The second type is bubble-filled paper ballots cast at the polling place or by mail that have been inserted into machines. Those should also produce the same results with only a slightly greater but still very small possibility for change.

Some mail ballots that have overvotes (i.e. the voter filled in voters for more than one candidate). The Board of Elections has already ruled on these ballots, applying the sensible, legal standard based on the intent of the voter. For example, if a voter filled in two bubbles but put an x through Candidate A, it will be counted for Candidate B. Ballots with no clear indication of voter intent will not be counted for any candidate. The Board will apply its decisions in the same manner as during the count.

The final ballot type is votes sent in electronically. In these cases, the votes were transferred from the electronically mailed form to a paper ballot and then fed into counting machines. There is seemingly greater chance for error here except that this process was done very carefully with two separate people overseeing the copying to make sure it was done correctly. I don’t know if the recount allows for examination the copying of these votes on to paper ballots, but it is very likely to change more than a very small number of votes—fewer than needed to change the outcome.

The only potential source of change I can see is if the Board of Elections discovers a missing DRE memory stick or stack of ballots. That is also highly unlikely. One reason that the count took so long was that the Board was being extra careful due to the tightness of the county executive race.

Some of the more extreme Blair supporters (but not Blair) are calling for him to fight to get more provisional ballots included. Except that my understanding is that Montgomery has already counted a far higher proportion of provisional ballots than elsewhere—90% as compared to the 68% state average. That means there are relatively few left and those that are left were excluded for very clear legal reasons, such as the voter was not registered with the party or changed their registration too late to vote in the party’s primary this year.

Alternatively, I suppose Blair could go to court to fight to get other votes excluded. Both approaches are way to reminiscent of “Stop the Steal” for my taste. The Blair campaign has been wise to steer utterly clear of them even as it pursues its legal right and utterly reasonable request for a recount due to the tightness of the election results.

UPDATE: See new post with some corrections.

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2022 Demcratic Primary, David Blair, Marc Elrich

Elrich Up by 198, Mail Count Complete

The latest totals came out tonight. According to the Montgomery County Board of Elections Twitter account, all mail ballots have been counted and they’ve started on provisionals. The entire count is hopefully going to be completed tomorrow.

The total number of mail ballot votes currently reported is 61,581. That compares to a total 63,626 returned Democratic mail ballots. My guess is that The totals now include all of the mail ballots as not everyone votes in every contest. But it’s hard to know for sure. Alternatively, there might be some provisionals in the count.

There are roughly 7000 provisional ballots. David Blair would have to win an estimated 2.9% more than Marc Elrich (assuming that all are valid counted) in order to catch up. This is possible but we’ll have to see how the count ends up.

Elrich has a smaller lead in numerical term than Blair did on election night but there are far fewer votes left to count. The share of remaining votes that Blair needs to get (assuming that no provisionals are thrown out) is now a bit higher than needed by Elrich after election night.

It’s certainly looking a lot better for Elrich than it did on election night but we’ll have to wait and see how the race ends up. It remains well within the free recount zone.

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Bad Ideas

Climate Protestors Marching Against U.S. Aid for Ukraine. Wait, What??!

It’s almost as if Jim Driscoll sits around all day thinking about how to make fighting climate change unpopular in enviro-friendly Montgomery County. By gum, I think he’s hit on a winner this time.

Driscoll’s band of climate activists is demanding that the U.S. end military aid to Ukraine to save the planet. Towards that end they plan to block the road to Sen. Chris Van Hollen’s district office:

Van Hollen just voted for $40 billion in weapons for Ukraine. The veterans and youth are asking Sen. Van Hollen to demand that President Biden immediately negotiate an end to the U.S. proxy war on Russia. This is the only way to save thousands of Ukrainian lives; reduce hunger, inflation and recession and give appropriate budget priority to the rapidly-worsening, climate catastrophe. We want him to join Rep. Jaimie [sic] Raskin in voting against the bloated military budget and spend the money saved on a Green New Deal.

My guess is that Sen. Van Hollen would like to save Ukraine AND stop climate change. The citation of Rep. Jamie Raskin is also bizarre because he has been a firm supporter of military aid for Ukraine. As he said on the House floor:

Generations to come will look back at this moment to ask what did our generation do when Vladimir Putin and his army invaded Ukraine and tried not only to crush its democracy and violate the spirit of its people but vaporize and annex the entire nation.

Driscoll’s decision to marry action on climate to Putin’s colonial war in Ukraine is the sort of unintentional leftist self-parody that makes the real work of promoting meaningful policy action harder.

As Daily Kos Founder Markos Moulitsas said about Code Pink:

“Code Pink has never been more than a nuisance — an ineffective, self-indulgent, obnoxious and tone-deaf organization,” said Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas.

“It was never relevant before, and it certainly isn’t relevant today,” Moulitsas said. “I’m sure their antics make them feel good about themselves, make them feel as if they’re accomplishing something, but in reality they’ve done nothing but piss off everyone around them, including potential allies.”

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Casey Anderson, Montgomery County Planning Board, Open Meetings Act

Anderson Excoriates Compliance Board after Caught in (Another) Open Meetings Act Violation

The Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission (M-NCPPC) just can’t stop violating the Open Meetings Act. This time it involves the Commission, its Executive Committee, the Commission’s Retirement Board, and several of the Retirement Board’s committees. Trustees include MoCo Planning Board member Gerald Cichy and Carrie McCarthy of the MoCo Planning Department. Casey Anderson is currently chair of the M-NCPPC as well as of the MoCo Planning Board.

Their latest decision is linked and posted at the bottom of this post. Here is the summary of the Open Meetings Act Compliance Board’s decision:

As we explain below, we conclude that the Commission and its Executive Committee failed to make sufficiently detailed disclosures to the public before and after meeting in closed sessions. The Commission also violated the Act by engaging in closed-door discussions that exceeded the scope of the statutory provisions that the Commission claimed as authority for excluding the public.

As Chair of the MoCo Planning Board and M-NCPPC, Casey Anderson has been the recipient of an inordinate number of adverse decisions by the Compliance Board. The Montgomery County Council President Gabe Albornoz has also upbraided Anderson and the Planning Board for abuse of its consent agenda and failure to register lobbyists as required by law.

In a letter to the County Council replying to Albornoz’s concerns, Anderson stated “Whenever anyone points out gaps in our procedures, we never hesitate to make improvements.” His contemptuous response to the latest finding by the Compliance Board shows this to be false.

Instead of leading M-NCPPC into figuring out how to comply properly with both the spirit and the letter of the Open Meetings Act, Anderson gave a lengthy diatribe excoriating the Compliance Board for their decision (starts a little before 39 minutes into the video). He says that complying with the Act “would not serve the public well” or “serve the interests of open government.” Anderson even accused the Compliance Board of undermining “public confidence in open government” — a rather bizarre accusation when you’ve just been found in violation of the Open Meetings Act. Again.

I’ve tracked several slap downs of M-NCPPC and the Montgomery County Planning Board here on Seventh State. The Montgomery County Council has also made clear their concern. Anderson, the Planning Board and M-NCPPC don’t care and continue to show contempt for the law. No one on M-NCPPC said a word in response to Anderson’s denunciation. The Planning Board continues to support his approach.

The question now is whether the Council is going to do anything about it or if Anderson is going to continue to ride roughshod over the law, the Council and the public.

Here is a link to the complaint.

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2022 Democratic Primary, County Executive

Elrich Lead Now at 173

55,286 mail ballots have been counted. Incumbent County Executive Marc Elrich won them by 1,499 votes, allowing him to make up his somewhat smaller election night deficit.

The results thus far disprove the theory that later mail ballots would tend to help Blair more as they were cast after he received the WaPo endorsement and his campaign really amped up. Elrich did well in the initial sets of ballots but also the most recent sets, which overall would have been cast later. David Blair did well in between.

There are a total of 63,584 mail ballots, so around 8,000 more to count. The exact total is unclear as some undoubtedly did not vote in the primary for county executive who cast ballots. But surprisingly few, I imagine, since more voted in that contest than in the top-level gubernatorial primary (555 more by the current count). This is highly unusual as people tend to roll-off and vote less as they move down the ballot.

Of course, provisional ballots also remain to be counted. That count may go even more slowly with the need to check the eligibility of each voter. But most will be deemed eligible and counted. No idea here on who will win those critical ballots.

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2022 Democratic Primary, County Executive, Uncategorized

Elrich Keeps Lead as Blair Gains 20

David Blair caught up by 20 votes yesterday. He now trails incumbent County Executive Marc Elrich by 276 votes. A total of 98,724 valid votes have been counted in the Democratic primary with 25,637 being mail ballots.

According to the Montgomery County Board of Elections Twitter account, there are lots of mail and provisional ballots yet to come with an unofficial mail-in total of 68,975 ballots and provisional total of 8,030 ballots. This includes Democrats, Republicans and others. The mail-in total will grow as additional ballots are received.

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Barry Glassman, comptroller

Glassman Rejects Cox

Hartford County Executive Barry Glassman and self-described Hogan Republican is the Republican nominee for comptroller. Glassman has disassociated himself from radical insurrectionist Dan Cox, the Republican gubernatorial nominee. He made this clear in a reply on Twitter to Ryan Miner of the A Miner Detail blog and site:

Glassman further made clear in The Daily Record clear that, unlike Cox, he accepts the legitimacy of the 2020 election:

The self-described Hogan Republican acknowledged he has little in common with Cox, though again he didn’t mention him by name.

When asked if being a self-described “Larry Hogan Republican” meant he rejected the Trump-Cox brand of Republicanism, Glassman said: “Yes. The short answer is yes.”

“I’m on the record. The election was valid. It was not stolen. Mike Pence is not a traitor,” said Glassman.

Nothing radical here but that’s the point.

Kudos to Glassman who faces an uphill fight in the comptroller’s race but can hold his high regardless of the outcome.

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2022 Democratic Primary

How Many Votes are Left to Count in MoCo?

In the Governor’s race in Montgomery County, there are currently 16,540 valid mail votes for Democrats and 1,781 for Republicans. So of the 18,321 votes, 90.3% were in the Democratic primary. There are also a tiny number of unaffiliated voters who can only vote for school board.

Voters tend to “roll off” the ballot as they move to down ballot contests. But that’s not happening in the hotly contested county executive Democratic primary. 16,730 Democrats cast valid votes in that contest. Republicans conform to the normal pattern with just 1,523 votes cast.

There are roughly 68,000 mail ballots, so there should be around 61,400 total Democratic ballots if the party breakdown stays the same. That leaves around 44,700 Democratic ballots left to be counted by my seat of the iPhone estimation. Of course, valid mail ballots continue to trickle in.

More results should be released at around 11pm tonight in the nail biter county executive Democratic primary.

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