Category Archives: Larry Hogan

Larry Hogan

Hogan’s Empire

I remain grateful to Adam Pagnucco for writing so many guest posts while I am out of town. Hello from Uruguay.

Governor Larry Hogan and the General Assembly Democrats are debating a lot of issues these days, including transportation projects, spending mandates, voting rights for people on parole and gerrymandering. Regardless of who’s right or who’s wrong, one thing can be said for sure: many people are only hearing one side of the argument. And that side belongs to the Governor.

Policy debates in Annapolis, and their political implications, are increasingly occurring in the context of a shrunken mainstream media. The Sun and the Post have dramatically cut back on their statehouse coverage. The Gazette is no more. The Daily Record is hidden behind an expensive paywall. Many local outlets don’t have staff in Annapolis. The TV and radio stations offer sporadic statehouse coverage. Maryland Reporter and the blogs have small audiences. Most people who pay close attention to these remaining news sources are firmly in one partisan camp or the other. Those people who pay only casual attention – a much larger group – are getting less content than ever.

The Governor and his supporters have adroitly prepared for this world by constructing a huge social media empire. They don’t have to worry about declining news coverage – they can and do cover themselves. Like his predecessors, the Governor has an official communications operation. But he also has Change Maryland, a policy/politics/PR entity started by the Governor in 2011 that has since morphed into his campaign organization. And he benefits from Red Maryland, a conservative blog started a decade ago that serves as a discussion platform for the ideas and politics of the right. The Democrats have no counterpart for either group.

Change Maryland and the Governor together rule the state’s social media, or at least that portion of it which is dedicated to state and local politics. Following are their Facebook likes and Twitter followers on March 9, as well as those of the Democrats and potential gubernatorial rivals.

Facebook Likes, March 9, 2016
Change Maryland: 262,559
Larry Hogan: 113,988
Heather Mizeur: 23,168
Anthony Brown: 17,659
Ken Ulman: 8,959
Doug Gansler: 8,949
Maryland Republican Party: 8,442
Maryland Democratic Party: 8,059
Peter Franchot: 7,692
John Sarbanes: 5,665
Maryland Senate Democrats: 5,169
John Delaney: 4,424
Brian Frosh: 3,994
Maryland Senate Republican Slate: 3,821
Mike Miller: 2,858
Kevin Kamenetz: 2,297
Rushern Baker: 1,915
Maryland House Republican Caucus: 1,748
Young Democrats of Maryland: 1,677
Mike Busch: 1,633
Maryland Young Republicans: 1,135
Maryland House Dems: 248

Twitter Followers, March 9, 2016
Larry Hogan: 18,830
Ken Ulman: 8,902
Rushern Baker: 8,506
Maryland Democratic Party: 8,341
Maryland Republican Party: 7,936
Heather Mizeur: 7,228
Peter Franchot: 6,846
Change Maryland: 6,796
Doug Gansler: 6,529
Anthony Brown: 3,640
Brian Frosh: 3,093
Young Democrats of Maryland: 2,235
John Sarbanes: 2,037
Kevin Kamenetz: 1,492
Maryland Young Republicans: 1,490
John Delaney: 1,112
Maryland Senate GOP: 1,107

The Governor’s advantage on Twitter is substantial, but not insurmountable. His advantage on Facebook over the Democrats is astounding. His Facebook page and Change Maryland’s page combined have a better than 40-1 edge on the state Democrats and a more than 80-1 advantage over potential rivals like Congressman John Delaney, Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz and Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker. And as for how he compares to General Assembly Democrats…? There is no comparison. Not. At. All.

In an era of disappearing statehouse coverage by the mainstream media, the Governor’s social media empire dominates policy debates, at least in the eyes of the public, and gives him a tremendous political edge. His positions on the budget, transportation, criminal justice, taxes and more are seen by MANY, MANY more people than those of the Democrats. Low cost Facebook ads can quickly spread them to 100,000 people or more. (With his campaign fundraising, he can easily afford them.) And while Democratic state legislators may have been outraged by his “spring break” remarks, how many people saw their hashtag rebuttals? Almost certainly far fewer than those who saw the Governor’s original statements.

Much attention has been paid to the Governor’s favorable poll ratings, which he trumpets non-stop through his communication outlets. That may or may not be warranted because polls go up and down, sometimes because of factors outside of a politician’s control. But to the extent that the Governor’s poll results are meaningful, consider this.

Could they be due in part to the fact that much of the public is getting only one side of the story, and that side is not the one told by the Democrats?

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Larry Hogan

Larry Hogan Does Not Play Well with Others

 Sen. Bobby Zirkin (D-Baltimore) condemns Gov. Larry Hogan’s attack on the General Assembly. Source: Bryan P. Sears.

Josh Kurtz deserves the prescient pundit award for the week for his column in Center Maryland:

On the day state Senate Democrats voted to override his veto of legislation restoring voting rights to 44,000 parolees and probationers, Gov. Larry Hogan (R) . . . was quick to condemn the vote and suggested that there could be political consequences for the senators who went against his wishes. Some, he predicted, “won’t survive the vote.”

Minutes later, like clockwork, Change Maryland, Hogan’s political organization, listed the 29 Democrats who had voted to override the veto, accusing them of “ignoring an overwhelming majority of Marylanders” and suggesting that they be targeted for their votes. In the days that followed, angry Marylanders let these lawmakers know how they felt – sometimes in intemperate, threatening ways.

Can we please, please discard the notion . . . that Hogan is a bipartisan governor?

Yesterday, Hogan confirmed his new, ahem, approach by doing a canonball right into the middle of the General Assembly:

Two-thirds of people approve of the job I’m doing and the legislature has decided to focus on the one third, and I’m not sure how any of them can get reelected by doing that. They come down to Annapolis like its spring break, breaking furniture, throwing beer bottles off balconies, and thankfully they’re going to go home in a few weeks and we can get back to running the State.

Bragging about how popular you are is much more Donald Trump than bipartisan leader. Popularity also often proves ephemeral, while the Governor will have to work with the General Assembly every year that he is in office.

Hogan’s comments may prove less than helpful to some of his friends. I can already hear the voice over in attack ads of Hogan telling Sen. Kathy Szeliga to stop acting like it’s Spring Break and then the narrator suggesting she do her job in Annapolis before running for U.S. Senate.

The Governor has huge advantages in commanding the attention of the press and the people. So it’s an impressive day when the Governor manages unaided to look like the kid in the sandbox who needs to be placed in time out.

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budget, Larry Hogan, taxes

What Are You Doing with Your $5.99?

mcdonalds-Quarter-Pounder-with-CheeseAfter buying this McDonalds Quarter Pounder with Cheese ($4.78) with your tax cut, you likely won’t have enough left for fries or a soda.

Gov. Larry Hogan’s budget is remarkable for how little it appears to do, at least at first glance. For a governor who trumpeted his desire to cut taxes, the tax cuts are unexciting:

The proposal would also deliver $36 million in fee and tax reductions this year, partly by speeding up tax breaks already approved by the legislature and partly by making new cuts. . . .

Hogan has described his tax plan as “modest.” Legislative analysts suggest it would reduce revenues by more than $100 million a year when fully implemented.

Modest is indeed the word. This year’s tax cut amounts to $5.99 per Maryland resident based on last year’s population estimates. I suppose it’s a little more exciting at $16.02 per household.

Budget Director David Brinkley said that “Taxpayers would see ‘more money in their pockets.'” Just don’t try to take the family to McDonalds on the savings.

More commendably in uncertain times, the Governor is setting aside much of the projected surplus for savings:

The operating budget leaves about $450 million unspent, even after the state stashes more than 6 percent of its surplus in its ‘Rainy Day Fund.’ Bond agencies recommend saving 5 percent.

On the other hand, the Governor’s budget: (1) raises college tuition by 2%–nearly three times last year’s estimated 0.7% rate of inflation, (2) once again plans foolishly to take public money and give it to private schools, and (3) does not yet include any money for Baltimore to knock down vacant homes.

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Larry Hogan, marriage equality

Republicans Still on the Anti-Same Sex Marriage Train

Baltimore County Delegate Richard Metzgar (R-6) has pre-filed a bill that would allow discrimination against same-sex couples–or just about any sort of couple–in the name of religious freedom:

The key section of the cookie-cutter legislation is almost identical to a bill that has been filed in Virginia. While in the guise of protecting “religious freedom,” the bill is cast so broadly that it would allow broad discrimination in public accommodations. For example, hospitals operated by religious institutions could refuse to allow husbands or wives of same-sex couples to visit their spouses as a “privilege” related to marriage.

As should be well known, there is no need to pass legislation to protect religious institutions from having to perform marriages they oppose–a widely-respected right protected by the Constitution and Maryland law. Del. Metzgar is either hysterical on this issue or hopes to broaden the right to discriminate against same-sex couples.

Indeed, this extreme legislation would override the state’s law against discrimination in public accommodations, which covered gays and lesbians long before the State legislated same-sex marriage and then upheld it in a referendum. Moreover, it also would allow discrimination against interracial couples on religious grounds, so same-sex couples may be the target but not the only victims.

What Will Hogan Do?

After having opposed same-sex marriage during the referendum, Hogan claimed to have “evolved” and to desire to downplay these issues during the campaign:

“They have no part in this campaign whatsoever,” he said. “We’ve been completely focused on the issues that all Marylanders are focused on right now, and that’s economic issues.”
 After his election, the Governor’s spokesman went even further:

“We’re opposed to discrimination — all forms of discrimination,” Hogan spokesman Matt Clark said Friday regarding the governor’s position.

So now that Hogan is on board with opposition to discrimination against same-sex couples, will he take a strong stand against Metzgar’s bill as unnecessary and divisive? Or will the leading force of the Maryland Republican Party stand silent in the face of continued efforts by members of his party to fight to allow discrimination?

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Larry Hogan

Gov. Hogan Tried to Cut Cancer Research Funding

Gov. Larry Hogan is mercifully making a great recovery from cancer after undergoing chemotherapy. I’m sure that everyone is very happy to hear the news and appreciates the joy with which the Governor and his family must have greeted it.

Beyond success in his personal battle against cancer, the Governor has used his illness to build support for those fighting cancer and to raise money for cancer research:

HoganStrongFacing cancer and using his office to rally support to fight the disease is about the best example of making lemonade from lemons that I can imagine. The Washington Post covered more of Hogan’s positive activity in a story today.

Cancer research, however, requires more than private support. Strong governmental support for medical research, such as at NIH here in Montgomery County, has been critical to medical advances in the fight against cancer and other diseases.

The Post neglected to mention that Gov. Hogan included a permanent 55% cut in state funding for cancer research grants in his budget proposal–a drop from $13 million in $5.8 million per year. Roughly 80% of the grants usually go to the University of Maryland, College Park with 20% directed at Johns Hopkins University.

Over the eight years that I imagine Gov. Hogan would like to spend in office, his proposal would have reduced spending on cancer research by $57.6 million. The General Assembly, controlled by the Democrats, fought successfully to put the money back in the budget.

It’s great the Gov. Hogan has raised funds for cancer research–a laudable use of his great personal challenge in fighting cancer, which he has handled with grace. But his budget proposal–a blueprint for his goals for Maryland–suggested other priorities.

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Larry Hogan

Gov. Hogan Has Advanced Cancer

The Washington Post reports:

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan disclosed Monday that he has been diagnosed with “a very advanced and very aggressive” form of cancer.

Hogan (R), who was sworn into office in January, said he would soon begin aggressive chemotherapy treatments, and would rely on Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford (R) to fill in for him on state business as needed.

He described the cancer as a lymphoma, and said it had spread through his abdomen and was “pressing up against my spinal column.”

I’m sure everyone joins me in wishing the Governor and his family strength and success as they fight this illness together and a speedy a return to good health.

UPDATE: Gov. Hogan in his own words:

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Larry Hogan, purple line

Rahn Weakens Hogan’s Hand on Purple Line

Robert McCartney in the Washington Post broke the story on Wednesday that Secretary of Transportation Pete Rahn has recommend building the Purple Line:

Rahn urged his boss to go ahead with the light-rail project in the Washington suburbs providing that the price tag is trimmed by about $300 million from the estimated $2.45 billion cost and that Montgomery and Prince George’s counties pay a bigger share, one of the officials said. Both spoke on the condition of anonymity because while they have been briefed on Rahn’s action, they were not authorized to speak publicly about it.

I tend to give credence to the story because of the response from the Governor’s office:

Hogan spokesman Doug Mayer said he could not confirm that Rahn had urged the governor to back a less-costly version of the project, rather than postpone it or kill it outright.

“As far as I know, no final recommendations have been made to the governor,” Mayer said. He declined to say whether Rahn had delivered a preliminary judgment.

If Rahn had yet to deliver his judgement or it was negative, wouldn’t Hogan’s spokesman issue a flat denial instead of a “no comment” in response to these questions?

Assuming that’s the case, the story places Hogan in an awkward position. If Hogan moves forward with the project, he looks weak and pushed into it by Rahn, despite the strong opposition of many Republicans. Alternatively, if Hogan nixes it, he looks like he has ignored the advice of the Secretary he charged with it and transit advocates will beat him over the head about it.

Either way, Hogan doesn’t look good. Rahn also cannot be happy that the press got a hold of this story. It portrays him as the indiscreet member of administration that has had strong message discipline. It also doesn’t aid his future job prospects, as people don’t want to hire someone who speaks out of school.

Side Note: Was Montgomery Council President George Leventhal, quoted later in the article as confirming the story, the source of the leak despite his protestations that:

I really like the secretary, and I hope I haven’t said anything that gets him in trouble. He was abundantly clear that he supports the project, he wants to build the project, and he was getting ready to make his recommendation.”

After all, it wouldn’t be the first time that someone was quoted as confirming their own “anonymous” leak.

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Larry Hogan

Who Does He Think He’s Fooling?

So the Larry Hogan show has now gone on the road and the Gov is bragging about his support for Marriott while in Korea:

MarriottHogan

This shout-out is perhaps ill-timed as it comes on the heels of Hogan’s veto of the bill that would have equalized the taxes paid by hotels in Maryland with internet providers out of state selling the exact same rooms–Marriott International’s #1 ask this year.

Doesn’t sound like the Maryland travel industry really is over the veto just yet despite Hogan’s cheer leading from Asia:

Marriottresp

I hope Marriott is charging him rack rate.

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Larry Hogan, Marriott

Hogan’s Big Decision

No, it’s not the Purple Line.

It’s about a much smaller tax bill that will speak volumes about the sort of Governor that Larry Hogan intends to be. Equally important, does the Governor want Marriott to stay in Maryland?

Marriott is the second largest corporation located in the State of Maryland. It has made a relatively small ask of the State that should be an easy lift for any pro-business governor, particularly one who has made recruiting new business and jobs the central theme of his administration.

Specifically, Marriott has asked the Governor’s support for a bill that would ensure that online travel companies pay the State the same in taxes as brick-and-mortar companies. Currently, when you buy a hotel from an online travel company like Expedia, you pay taxes and fees equal to what you would pay in taxes if you bought the same room directly from from the hotel.

Sounds good except that Expedia is only passing on the tax for the rate that it paid the hotel for the room–not the tax on the full rate you paid. Expedia pockets the difference, leaving the State poorer and Marriott at an unfair competitive disadvantage.

It’s not even clear that this is legal. A bill sponsored by Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-18) and passed by the General Assembly that would correct this problem currently sits on the Governor’s desk and awaits his signature.

Having the same taxation rates for people engaging in the same economic activity is the only way to ensure the fair competition that is vital to a healthy free market. But Grover Norquist has declared this a tax increase, making life difficult for anti-tax Republicans, like the Governor, who has made sensible past statements indicating that he doesn’t view it that way.

So the Governor has to make a choice. Does he want to continue down the pragmatic, center-right policy lane that he has followed so far? Or will he hew to the demands of national conservative ideologues?

Signing the bill is right economically because it creates a level playing field and prevents online companies from pocketing monies that they were never supposed to gain. It sends a clear direct signal from Maryland to Marriott that we want you here.

Politically, it sends a message that Hogan is going to continue his practical pro-business agenda. Unfettered by the demands of national conservative ideologues–who are a lot less popular than his steady movement toward cutting taxes and reining in the structural deficit–Hogan will continue to do confidently what he sees as best for the State. In short, he’ll stand up to anyone for Maryland.

Hogan’s decision will send a strong message not just to Marriott but to the State.

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