Joel Rubin, who is running for Delegate in District 18, has released the following video.
All posts by Adam Pagnucco
Balcombe: I Want My Daughter to Always Call MoCo Home
Brooks and Wilhelm Release Joint Video
Marc Elrich: “I Prefer to Put Jobs in Frederick”
By Adam Pagnucco.
Yesterday, Greater Greater Washington (GGW) wrote a long essay about Council Member Marc Elrich, who is running for Executive. GGW has many disagreements with Elrich about smart growth and housing and mostly concentrated on those issues. But the essay contained this quote from an interview with Elrich.
Broadly, Elrich isn’t convinced Montgomery County needs to add many new homes or residents, or jobs. Many people with jobs in Bethesda or DC are now living in Frederick County and other outlying areas and driving through Montgomery to get to work. We asked Elrich what he’d do for these folks, and his answer was, “I prefer to put jobs in Frederick.” He’d encourage the growth of both households and jobs to happen there, and in Prince George’s County, and elsewhere.
Elrich has disputed quotes before and we will see if he disputes this one. But if the quote is accurate… well.
The chart below uses data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to compare growth in total employment in Frederick and MoCo from 2001 through 2016.
Frederick’s job creation record is clearly better than MoCo’s in both absolute and relative terms.
Now let’s use BLS data to compare growth in establishment counts in the two counties.
Frederick beats MoCo in growth rate and, over the last decade, in net new establishment count too.
Let’s bear in mind the relative size of the two counties. Frederick has about a quarter of MoCo’s population. Yet, Frederick has created a larger absolute number of jobs over the last fifteen years than MoCo and had a net gain since 2006 while MoCo had a net loss. In terms of establishments, Frederick created more than double what MoCo did over the last decade despite being much smaller.
Now let’s recall the research we did three weeks ago on taxpayer migration. MoCo is often compared to Fairfax, but the truth is that we have lost more taxpayer income to Frederick than to Fairfax over the last decade.
Between 2006 and 2016, MoCo had a net outmigration of $582 million in real adjusted gross income to Frederick.
The greatest losses to Frederick occurred during MoCo’s home price boom of 2002 through 2007. MoCo home prices are rising again so let’s connect the economic dots. Suppose we cut off housing construction in the ways Elrich described to Greater Greater Washington. Unless there is a recession – which would bring a different set of problems – a housing shutdown in MoCo would cause more home price and rent hikes, exacerbating our already oppressive cost of living and pushing some folks into Frederick. Once in Frederick, some of those people would start businesses, hire people and create more economic activity there. That’s great for Frederick and it’s part of the explanation for the growth they have seen in the last fifteen years. But what exactly does that do for us?
Look, folks – with surging needs in schools, transportation and everything else and with maxed out county debt, we have a lot of bills to pay. There are two ways to do it. Option one is to grow our commercial tax base and create jobs, thereby generating more tax revenue. Option two is more big tax hikes which will further strain the cost of living.
If we have a County Executive who is fighting to put jobs in Frederick and NOT in MoCo, which option do you think our county will pick?
Disclosure: the author supports Roger Berliner for Executive.
Bill Frick’s End the Monopoly Insert
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Friedson: Ease the Squeeze
By Adam Pagnucco.
Council District 1 candidate Andrew Friedson has sent out a mailer discussing the need to “Ease the Squeeze” in Montgomery County. Friedson writes:
We’ve all felt the Montgomery County Squeeze. It’s the squeeze on families facing higher living and childcare costs despite stagnant wages, on commuters stuck in the second worst traffic congestion in the country, and on parents whose kids are squeezed in overcrowded schools. It’s the squeeze on young workers and new families who can no longer afford to live here, and on seniors struggling to maintain a quality home and a dignified livelihood without the support they need to get by.
Montgomery County is a special place, but we can’t afford to ignore the change that’s happening all around us because it’s putting the squeeze on all of us.
I’m running for County Council to Ease the Montgomery County Squeeze with forward-focused leadership dedicated to growing a modern economy so we can make our community more attractive to move here and more affordable to stay here.
This is Friedson’s core campaign message. Will it work?
Asian Pacific American Dems Endorse Blair
The Coalition of Asian Pacific American Democrats (CAPAD) has endorsed David Blair for County Executive. Their endorsement statement emphasizes economic issues, including the need to “support minority small businesses.” The county has thousands of businesses owned by people of East Asian and South Asian descent. We reprint Blair’s email below.
Leventhal Promises Tax Cut
By Adam Pagnucco.
In lengthy remarks on his County Executive Facebook page, Council Member George Leventhal has promised “a significant reduction in the energy tax” which he says “harms our competitiveness.” He also took on critics of the county’s business climate, saying:
Relentless criticism of, and negativity about, our county’s business climate can itself be harmful to the business climate, since so much about consumer spending and investment decisions is psychological – the “animal spirits” of the marketplace.
We reprint his entire statement below.
*****
When I am elected County Executive, I will immediately take very seriously the concerns I have heard about the need to make it easier to do business in the county. I will appoint a blue-ribbon task force on business process reform. The group will include individuals who have established successful businesses in the county; those who understand any impediments to establishing or expanding businesses; and tax. legal, and county planning experts whom I will task with producing a series of recommendations within six months.
The first budget that I will submit to the County Council will contain a significant reduction in the energy tax (which harms our competitiveness). I will appoint new leadership in key departments that have been cited as impediments to business growth and formation, including the Department of Permitting Services and the Department of Environmental Protection (The Planning Department is not under the County Executive’s supervision, but it is also the source of many complaints, and also needs to be reviewed). I will meet personally with a wide range of employers, large and small, to conduct my own qualitative review, and commission an even wider range of focus groups to get input.
But let us remember: We remain a very wealthy county, and many of the business owners who most vociferously raise concerns are doing very well. Recently, one of my Democratic competitors told a group of about 40 local small businesses that he was surprised to find there were that many people still doing business here, who had not fled to other jurisdictions. I know he was joking, but that kind of talk is irresponsible.
Those who seek to lead the county must be positive forces for change – and must be careful not to spark a panic. Let’s remember President Franklin Roosevelt’s admonition that “we have nothing to fear but fear itself.” Whomever is elected County Executive will need to promote our county’s excellent attributes to attract jobs and investment. Relentless criticism of, and negativity about, our county’s business climate can itself be harmful to the business climate, since so much about consumer spending and investment decisions is psychological – the “animal spirits” of the marketplace.
I will never describe this affluent, attractive county as a bad place to do business. Indeed, the tradition of those successfully elected here has been optimism – it used to be a cliché to say that Montgomery County was a “great place to live, work and raise a family.” That’s still very true, but at least half the Democrats running for County Executive have adopted a different theme: “don’t invest here, it’s a disaster area.” Whomever is elected will find that turning a big ship is a slow process – that no matter who is Executive, altering a complex structure of taxes and regulations takes time, requires the assent of other elected leaders in the state legislature and County Council, and will encounter enormous push-back from unions, the PTAs, and other interest groups. I am more than ready for that challenge.
Some things are more important than winning an election. Let’s not burn the whole house down because we want to renovate some of it.