All posts by David Lublin

Congress, Valerie Ervin

Valerie Ervin Will Be in for the Eighth

valerieervinglogo

UPDATE/Corrections: See bottom of post.

A reliable source tells me that former Montgomery County Councilmember Valerie Ervin will run for Congress from the Eighth District that is being vacated by Chris Van Hollen who is running for Senate. She will be a top-tier candidate.

Valerie won election to the School Board in 2004 prior to winning the District 5 Council seat in 2006–the seat now held by Tom Hucker.A past President and Vice-President of the County Council, she stepped down in the year before her term ended to take a job with the non-profit Center for Working Families.

Policy

Along with Councilmembers Elrich and Navarro, Ervin worked to raise the minimum wage in Montgomery County just before leaving the Council. Active in the PTA before winning election, she has long been especially interested in education issues, such as universal pre-K and closing the achievement gap.

Many Advantages

While in office, Councilmember Ervin had the knack for being well-liked by both labor and business. Her recent working for the Center for Working Families has only burnished her progressive credentials. In short, she has the potential to appeal to a wide range of voters.

The composition of the electorate works in her favor. The Eighth District is 12% African American but black voters will compose a significantly higher share of primary voters. Democratic primary voters are also disproportionately female, and Ervin is so far the only woman in the race.

School Board members run at large, so she may be the only candidate to have ever been on the ballot throughout the Montgomery County portion of the district. Of course, that would not be the case if Councilmember George Leventhal, her former boss and then colleague, also jumped in the race.

Fundraising

Critical to any effort, however, will be raising money for a successful campaign. The kitty in her Maryland campaign account is essentially empty and I could not find a federal committee listed yet. She has not had to raise the kind of dollars needed for a congressional run in past campaigns.

Nonetheless, I think a disciplined person like Valerie could do it. Backing from EMILY’s list would surely help. The national connections she has made through her activism since leaving the Council may also help her financially. Labor could help provide money as volunteers but there is no way to know which way they’ll jump or if they’ll jump together.

Overlap with Other Candidates

Sen. Jamie Raskin (D-20) now represents many of the same people as Valerie once did on the Council. Assuming he runs, they could compete for many of the same voters geographically in that part of the County, which is rich with Democratic voters. It would probably also aid her campaign if she is the only prominent woman and African-American candidate in the race.

UPDATE/Corrections

I have already received some push back on some of my characterizations in this post. The points made by person who responded are well taken, so I thought it important to add them here or balance or correction even as I leave up the original post. First and foremost, someone reminded me (correctly) that Valerie was not beloved by local labor by the time she left the Council.

MCGEO and the Police union especially hated her. Gino Renne at MCGEO even targeted her with an attack website, though he goes off on a lot of people. The police union showed up once to boo her at a hearing and Valerie said that the union chief started making “threats.” Finally, she also had strong conflicts with the School Board and MCEA was not sorry to see her go.

On the other hand, she still has very cordial relations with SEIU–nationally the second-largest union in America. And, as we have seen, sides can change quickly in these races, so past opposition does not always predict future behavior–or the views of national unions.

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Republicans

Bongino’s Provocative New PAC

red-dawn

Republican Dan Bongino, who ran a good race against Democrat John Delaney in the Sixth Congressional District, has started a PAC. The goal isn’t provocative–provide support for more Republicans candidates to widen the playing field–it’s the name:

Battle Ground Resistance PAC.

Has someone watched Red Dawn a few too many times?

Anyway, here is the announcement:

In 2014, I ran for Congress in Maryland in a race that the “experts” and the media, declared “uncompetitive.” Despite the lack of support from the Washington D.C. establishment, thanks to you (the grassroots), and my team’s relentless work ethic, we were within a point of pulling off the biggest congressional upset in recent electoral history. After that night, I pledged never to let another hard-working and principled candidate lose a race because I stood on the sidelines. Let’s help them fight back in this ongoing political battle.

Today, I am announcing the launch of my new political action committee, the Battle Ground Resistance PAC. Through this PAC, we will harness the dedicated efforts of our donors to find and support candidates willing to take the fight to members of both political parties, in the fight for a more prosperous tomorrow.

Interestingly, the last line suggests he wants to direct his fire at Republicans as well as Democrats.

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Chris Van Hollen, US Senate

Analysis: Decisive Van Hollen Jumps In the Race

Chris Van Hollen Takes on FOX News

I had wondered if Chris Van Hollen might play Hamlet and have a tough time making a decision on whether or not to enter the Senate race. After all, he ranks high in the House Leadership and was tipped as a strong candidate for Speaker. But I didn’t have to wonder for long. Rep. Van Hollen acted decisively and entered the race.

He brings a lot of major advantages to his candidacy.

Strong Montgomery Base

Chris Van Hollen’s base in Montgomery is strong and large. Thanks to redistricting, he has represented most of it at one time or another. While we have many well-liked pols, Chris is the most widely popular and respected. Put another way, his is the endorsement that most state legislative candidates in the County want on their mailers.

He will have a large army of loyal and excited volunteers, including many who worked on his congressional campaign. Equally important, he already has very smart advisers such as Joan Kleinman and Karen MacManus. Like so many originally from Louisiana, Karen has very quick political sense and a formidable ability to organize and get things done.

Money

Van Hollen’s campaign will be very well funded. The Sun reported that he already has $1.7 million cash-on-hand. As a former head of the DCCC, his network could hardly be more extensive. Having raised so much money for many his colleagues, he may benefit from their support is well.

Record and Skill Set

But the most important advantage held by Van Hollen is that many see him as the full package: a policy wonk who can also strategize and communicate. He has always been fast on his feet challenging Republicans on the floor or on television. Equally important, he conveys the Democratic message in an appealing and completely understandable way.

And Rep. Van Hollen doesn’t do this by temporizing. He is unafraid to stand up for progressive priorities, such as when he opposed the CROmnibus. Just watch one of many examples in the above clips in which he wins the debate not just intellectually but in terms of communication even on FOX.

Like Sen. Barbara Mikulski, he is good at looking after the home team as well. For example, he worked to secure at $15 million federal grant that allowed 14 Maryland community colleges to train workers in cyber security. Another $300K federal grant helped to provide “technical training to veteran-owned businesses seeking federal procurement opportunities.”

Challenges and Overlap with Other Candidates

Some fear that he may suffer from the same problem as Mike Barnes did when he ran for Senate in 1986. Rep. Barnes carried Montgomery handily but failed to make inroads elsewhere. A key difference from 1986 is that Mikulski had already run for Senate in a general election. Though she lost that uphill race against Sen. Mac Mathias, she gained both credibility and name recognition. No sitting representative in Maryland has that advantage.

Nonetheless, Chris will have to break out of Montgomery. He has represented portions of other counties. His connections from his days in the state legislature may also help these efforts. It will also aid the Van Hollen campaign if other Montgomery based candidates like John Delaney and Heather Mizeur stay out of the race.

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Chris Van Hollen, US Senate

Chris Van Hollen is in for Senate

vanhollen

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-8) announced in an email to supporters and Facebook posts today that he in for the 2016 Senate race. Arelis Hernández at The Washington Post and John Fritze at the Baltimore Sun already have stories up. Here is the post from his Facebook page:

I am excited to share that I have decided to run for the United States Senate from our great State of Maryland. I am very grateful to the citizens of Maryland’s Eighth Congressional District for the opportunity to represent them and want to thank the many Marylanders who, over the last 48 hours, have called, sent text messages, or emailed to urge me to run for the United States Senate. A more formal announcement will come later, but I wanted to let you know of my plans.

I am very much looking forward to the upcoming campaign and a healthy exchange of ideas. In my very first election for Congress I believed that people were tired of politics as usual, and I ran a campaign based on key issues and ideas that matter to our future. The same is true today.

The promise of America is that every individual — regardless of race, religion, or sexual orientation – will be given an equal opportunity to succeed and prosper. We have fallen short on that promise. I believe that one of the key challenges of our time is the struggle to make sure that America works for all its citizens, not just the wealthy few.

I am committed to working every day, as I have in my years in the Congress, for policies that ensure equal access to quality education, provide good paying jobs, a strong middle class, and a healthy state, country, and planet for future generations.

In January, I put forward an economic Action Plan to generate more growth in our economy with more shared prosperity. Despite important economic progress, too many hard working families across Maryland and around our country have been struggling to make ends meet. For the last 20 years, as the productivity of our workforce has increased dramatically, paychecks have remained flat. We must unite to promote a tax system that rewards hard work, instead of one riddled with loopholes and special deals for the super wealthy and well-connected. We need to make sure that every individual in our state and our country has a chance to climb the ladder of opportunity and build a successful and fulfilling future.

We must sharpen our competitive edge and invest strategically — in education, cutting-edge scientific research, and modern infrastructure — to ensure that every American is equipped to compete in the 21st Century. We must create opportunities for more Americans to save and benefit from the wealth creation that is currently concentrated at the very top of the income ladder.

It is also important that we grow our economy in a way that protects our environment, including our national treasure, the Chesapeake Bay. As the Co-Chair of the Congressional Chesapeake Bay Watershed Caucus I have been honored to work with Maryland’s farmers and conservationists to protect the Bay and preserve it for future generations. I have also been pleased to Co-Chair the Bicameral Task Force on Climate Change, which is committed to addressing the threats and costs to our communities from the disruptions created by massive carbon pollution and climate change.

Even though our nation is politically polarized today, I continue to believe in the power of ideas to bring people of goodwill together for the common good. I’ve had the opportunity to work across the aisle to get things done on a variety of issues, from funding for the Chesapeake Bay, to expanding research on pediatric cancer, to leveling the playing field for families with children with disabilities by providing equal access to tax-free savings accounts to provide for their children’s future, to protecting federal whistleblowers who take action to ferret out waste, fraud, and abuse.

For 5 long years, I fought to gain the freedom of my constituent, Alan Gross, from a Cuban jail cell and I was honored to travel to Cuba in December to finally bring Alan home. I have also been proud to lead the fight to reduce the influence of secret money and ensure greater transparency and accountability in our electoral process.

I have always believed in the power of the democratic process to further strengthen our nation, to build on the progress we have made, and to create an ever more perfect union. I look forward to hearing your views in the coming days and weeks on how, together, we can achieve these goals and continue the fight to get things done for our great State of Maryland and our country.

Thank you,

Chris Van Hollen

 

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MCPS, Montgomery County Council, schools

PTA, MCPS Place Leventhal in Time-Out

MoCoCouncil

Montgomery County Council President George Leventhal has been pressing very hard for the Council to approve $31 million for needed upgrades to the County Council office building.

Reaction by MCCPTA Leaders

PTA members were not jumping for joy at the prospect in light of MCPS’s severe school construction needs. Cheryl Peirce, Chair of the Montgomery County Council of Parent-Teacher Associations (MCCPTA) Capital Improvements Program (CIP) Committee, sent out one alert regarding the proposal:

In light of our recent testimony to the County Council on February 24th for funding for our school buildings and systems, as well as efforts we (MCCPTA, MCPS, County Council, state delegation) have undertaken this year and last in Annapolis, a decision to consider a $30M+ renovation of the County Council offices has raised questions among Board of Education members and many MCCPTA leaders.

Other online critics have been less diplomatic, suggesting that the Council can use portables.

Reaction from the School Board and the County Exec

As Bill Turque reported in the Washington Post, School Board Member Pat O’Neill had already expressed opposition to the proposal:

“We have 9,300 children in [classroom trailers],” O’Neill said. “We have children sitting in some classrooms with coats on” because of poor heating systems.

County Executive Ike Leggett opposed the plan and did not include the funds in the budget he submitted to the Council.

Leventhal on Critics

Leventhal punched back hard:

“In the school system’s view, 100 percent of the budget should be available for school construction,” he said. “Their plan is that any available dollar should go to school construction.”

Earlier comments–that seemingly include colleagues who failed to line up behind the plan–expressed equal regard for opponents:

Leventhal, with some sarcasm, said the council could elect to “remain in this outmoded, falling-apart decrepit building forever.”

On Tuesday night, Bill Turque reported that the renovation plan had been “set aside.”

My Take

Leventhal is absolutely right that the council building needs renovation. The heating and A/C are terrible–you really don’t want an office on the sunny side in summer. It may even be, as George said, “odiferous,” though I’ve never noticed it on my visits.

But it ultimately is a question of priorities. Thousands of students are learning in portables and school buildings also have similar problems with the heating and the A/C. Our new governor does not seem real keen on funding school construction, so the County cannot depend on money raining down from the State.

George Leventhal is not a happy person today. Fortunately, both MCCPTA and MCPS have lots of experience in handling ill-tempered people of all ages. The effectiveness of both organizations during this episode signals that neither should be ignored over the next four years.

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Donna Edwards, US Senate

Donna Edwards for Senate?

Democratic National Convention, Charlotte, NC

Addressing the Democratic National Convention

As Sen. Barbara Mikulski announces her retirement, people aspiring to win the seat are already eying not just it but each other. Here is a first look at one potential candidate who could be a top contender: Donna Edwards

Progressive Backing

The Fourth District representative brings a lot to her candidacy. With firm backing from national and local progressives (read: left-wing Democrats), she unseated Rep. Al Wynn in 2008. Del. David Moon sent out an email yesterday from the Progressive Change Campaign Committee calling for her to run. (Clarification: David was forwarding the email so people could see it and has not endorsed any candidate.)

Her potential to attract both progressive and African-American voters–very large groups in any statewide Democratic primary–makes her a formidable candidate. Thanks to redistricting, she has represented much of Prince George’s, Montgomery and Anne Arundel counties.

These are very big advantages. Unlike Anthony Brown, she has real potential to fire up the left-wing Democratic party base. People who would like to see a woman take Barbara Mikulski’s seat may well also be inspired to support Edwards. In short, there is a real market for a candidate with Edwards’ political profile.

Money

Edwards is not popular with the Democratic establishment but I don’t really see that as a barrier. A much bigger problem is whether she can raise the money needed for a Senate bid. She currently has just $30,000 in her congressional campaign account.

This is not an insurmountable barrier for a Member of Congress who will gain backing from various progressive groups, . But Edwards will have to put in serious phone time as she will face better fundraisers and is starting well behind many other potential candidates.

Problems with Jewish and Pro-Israel Voters?

She may also sail into choppy waters with Jewish and pro-Israel voters. Unhappiness with her record on Israel was one factor that helped propel forward a near challenge by Glenn Ivey in 2012. J Street has strongly supported Edwards but even they criticized her fundraiser with the pro-Palestinian New Policy PAC.

The fundraiser touted that she was one of only 25 representatives to vote against a House resolution “recognizing Israel’s right to defend itself” in the Gaza conflict. Actions like these will give pause to voters who have no affection for Benjamin Netanyahu and think Barack Obama is fine on Israel but also do not want someone they perceive as unsympathetic to Israel representing them.

Maryland has one of the highest proportion of Jewish voters in the nation. Jewish Americans tend to vote a high rates and will, like African Americans, figure disproportionately in any statewide Democratic primary. Democrats may also fear that this record could harm her in the general election.

Edwards has received support in the past from some prominent local Jewish leaders. But will it be enough for her to brush these problems aside?

Record

Rep. Edwards has served in Congress for six years, and Democrats have been in the minority but all for the first two years of her service. As a result, an Edwards campaign will have to focus more on her positions than her accomplishments, as do her congressional campaign and official congressional websites.

Overlap with Other Candidates

Maryland does not hold runoffs so whoever wins the primary wins the nomination. The supply of candidates will influence the outcome as candidates who have more competitors who can eat into their vote will suffer. This is not a problem peculiar to Donna Edwards–all candidates will worry about this issue. But who would eat into her likely potential voters?

African-American candidates, especially from the Baltimore area like Rep. Elijah Cummings or Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, could make it hard for her to rack up votes there. Edwards and former Del. Heather Mizeur would compete for the same hard-left progressives, though I tend to believe Edwards would crowd Mizeur out. More seriously, Rep. Chris Van Hollen presents challenges for Edwards in Montgomery–a natural potential base for her support.

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education, university of maryland

Education Cuts at the University of Maryland

Education cuts by both outgoing Gov. Martin O’Malley and new Gov. Larry Hogan are hitting the University of Maryland. Most of the following information is cribbed from President Wallace Loh’s letter from last month.

State Funding Cuts

Gov. O’Malley made a one-time cut of $15.6 million before leaving office in order to address budget shortfalls. While Gov. Hogan’s budget includes a 1.3% increase for UMD, he has made O’Malley’s one-time cut permanent. Moreover, he further rescinded COLAs of 2% and merit raises of 2.5%

Impact at the University of Maryland

Tuition Hike:
After four years of no increases, UMD made an unusual mid-year tuition hike of 2%. The new tuition levels will be maintained in the upcoming year.

Faculty and Staff Salaries
Taking away the COLA means that faculty and staff will see their remuneration decline in real terms. Moreover, this is now the fourth consecutive year with no merit increases, so faculty have seen no real increases over that period.

Furloughs
will take another bite out of the salaries of faculty and staff who earn more than $60,000 per year:

State-funded employees who earn less than $60K—about 40% of our workforce—will have no furloughs; those who earn $60K+ to $100K will have 1 furlough day; $100K+ to $180K will have 2 furlough days; and those that earn $180K+ will have 3 furlough days.
Eliminate vacant positions
Instead of filling current vacancies, including teaching and research faculty, positions will no longer exist.

Overall Impact

The State of Maryland has made enormous investments in the University of Maryland over the past several decades. Universities, highly labor intensive by nature, cannot attract the best faculty or build new modern facilities without it.

These efforts have paid off–the quality of the students and the faculty at UMD has steadily risen. UMD’s admission to the Big Ten was a sign not just of athletic prowess of but of the university’s desire to take its place among its academic peers.

Gov. O’Malley kept tuition down, which has only increased the attractiveness of the university and helped keep many of the most talented Marylanders in state. It also acknowledged the reality of the barrier of the cost of education for many families.

Tuition increases were bound to begin again at some point, though they are now rising from a lower start point than would have otherwise occurred. And, as already mentioned, universities need money with tuition being a major source. The real impact of these increases will depend on their rate relative to inflation.

However, as UMD is demonstrating, tuition increases alone are unlikely to makeup for cuts of these levels. President Loh expressed concern, rightly, about retaining and attracting top-notch faculty who can go to other high-level research institutions.

In short, we have to be very careful not to allow to crumble what the State and UMD have built painstakingly over many years. Beyond being a waste of past investment, we should leverage UMD more economically as North Carolina has done with UNC. Indeed, the goal should be not just to maintain UMD but to continue its upward trajectory. As a high-income state, educational advantage will be critical to continuing to advance economically.

Next Up: Why Such Big Cuts Now?

Note: Just a reminder that I am a professor of political science at American University in Washington, D.C.

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Barbara Mikulski, US Senate

Updated: Off to the Races

Barbara A. Mikulski

Sen. Barbara Mikulski in 1987–Her First Year as Senator

UPDATE: Martin O’Malley will not seek Senate seat.

As my former co-blogger on Maryland Politics Watch Adam Pagnucco accurately sussed out on Facebook, I am very grateful to Sen. Barbara Mikulski for her surprise retirement decision. While I thoroughly approve of Maryland’s four-year election cycle, it does leave election junkies like me in need of a fix.

On Senator Mikulski

Much will be made of Sen. Mikulski’s political career and, as she said yesterday, it’s not over just yet. I’m still surprised she has chosen to retire because she clearly revels in her job. Moreover, in my view, she remains Maryland’s most popular politician. Anyone who thought they could defeat her was in for a rude shock.

Sen. Mikulski will deservedly get a lot of accolades as someone who blazed a path for women in politics. However, as I once heard Geraldine Ferraro point out many years ago, most Marylanders didn’t vote for her because she is a woman or in spite of her being a women but because she was the person we wanted for the job.

Sen. Mikulski got her start as a local Baltimore activist fighting a highway. Unlike many senators, she isn’t independently wealthy but she has always been a tough organizer and campaigner. Never afraid to learn, she also doesn’t forget her roots and fights relentlessly for Maryland. Most of all, I think people liked voting for her because of her authentic concern and understanding of people.

Democrats for the Senate

Open Senate seats are like rare jewels and there are many people who are eying running for the seat. Here are some of the Democrats rumored to be thinking about it. Doesn’t mean that they will run (or should run) but are in the mix.

Former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown
Rep. Elijah Cummings
Rep. John Delaney
Rep. Donna Edwards
Former State’s Attorney Glen Ivey
Former Del. Jolene Ivey
Former Del. Heather Mizeur
Secretary of Labor Tom Perez
Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake
Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger
Rep. John Sarbanes
Former County Executive Ken Ulman
Rep. Chris Van Hollen

There is also a list of Democrats that could run but I think won’t run:

County Executive Rushern Baker
Comptroller Peter Franchot
Former Attorney General Doug Gansler

Announced he won’t run today:

Former Gov. Martin O’Malley

Republicans for the Senate

Larry Hogan’s election has got the Republicans dreaming too. While they have a shorter bench of people currently holding elected office, here are some who might jump in:

Don Bongino
Dr. Ben Carson
Former County Executive David Craig
Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich
Former Commissioner Robin Frazier
Rep. Andy Harris
Charles Loller
Former County Executive Laura Neuman
Del. Tony O’Donnell
Former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele

And here are Republicans who could run but I think would be unlikely to run:

County Executive Alan Kittleman
Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford

The Outsiders

Of course, someone could swoop in from either party and beat the known quantities as John Delaney did in the Sixth Congressional District. However, several credible outsider candidates campaigns just didn’t get any oxygen when Ben Cardin won his open seat.

 

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Montgomery County Council, Nancy Floreen, smoking

Air In, Vaping Out in MoCo

On Tuesday, the Montgomery County Council looks set to pass Council Vice President Nancy Floreen’s bill to ban the sale of e-cigarettes to minors. The bill would also prohibit their use where smoking is already not allowed and mandate child-resistant packaging.

Here is Councilmember Floreen’s argument for the bill:

It is hard to keep up with the mounting evidence that electronic cigarettes pose more risks than their marketers would like us to believe, especially for children and teens.

Although electronic cigarettes do not produce tobacco smoke, they do contain nicotine and other dangerous chemicals. That’s why I introduced a bill in the Montgomery County Council to prohibit the use of electronic cigarettes in public spaces where traditional cigarette smoking is banned, including in public buildings and restaurants. The bill also would prohibit use of electronic cigarettes by minors and would require child-resistant packaging for them.

The use of electronic cigarettes, commonly called “vaping,” has grown dramatically since the product’s introduction in 2007. The practice has become so commonplace that the Oxford Dictionary selected the word “vape” as its 2014 “Word of the Year.”

Perhaps swayed by the belief that electronic cigarettes are safe, or emboldened by the fact that e-cigs have little odor that parents could detect, teens who have never tried traditional cigarettes are using e-cigs. In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report that e-cig use has tripled among teens in just two years. These young people are unwittingly putting themselves at risk for nicotine addiction and nicotine poisoning, as well as potentially graduating to harmful tobacco products.

What exactly is in an electronic cigarette? It is hard to say. In addition to the most common ingredients — propylene glycol, nicotine and flavorings — studies have revealed a lot of unsavory things, like carcinogens, heavy metals and even silicon fibers in some e-cigs. But with 90 percent of electronic cigarettes being manufactured in China, where production lacks even the most basic of regulations, they could contain just about anything.

Many states, including Maryland, prohibit the sale of electronic cigarettes to minors. Municipalities including New York City, Los Angeles, Boston and Chicago, also have enacted restrictions on their use.

While the Food and Drug Administration is currently considering regulations to address electronic cigarettes, it is not clear when those regulations would be finalized or take effect. In the meantime, I’m not willing to gamble with the health of our current generation of young people. We must put some protections in place, and we must do it now.

Councilmember Floreen makes a good case. It seems very odd that someone can buy vaping materials at a mall kiosk but that cigarettes must be sold behind the counter. If adults want to use these materials, that’s their business. But we shouldn’t facilitate the addiction and the poisoning of people who are not yet legal adults.

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