Early results show: Pugh 45%, Dixon 33%, Embry 8%, Warnock 7%
All posts by David Lublin
First Votes In!
Still Waiting on Votes Due to Poll Closing Extension
Donna Edwards managed to convince a court to extend voting by one hour in four Baltimore locations due to issues, so no votes until 9pm. Can we all wait five more minutes?
The Generation Gap
The canyon that is the generation gap among Democratic primary voters continues in Maryland:
17-29 year olds (12%): 72% Sanders, 26% Clinton
30-44 year olds (24%): 55% Clinton, 44% Sanders
45-64 year olds (42%): 74% Clinton, 24% Sanders
65 and older (23%): 74% Clinton, 21% Sanders
Sanders devotees will point to his incredibly strong numbers among millennials, though they are lower than the stunning 85% and 90% that he managed to post elsewhere.
But there just aren’t that many of them. Millennials composed just 12% of the Democratic primary electorate. Older voters participate far more. People 45 and older formed 65% of Democratic primary. Clinton advocates will argue that this undercuts Sanders’s argument that he brings in tons of young voters.
Oh, and Hillary just won Pennsylvania.
Surprises in the Presidential Exit Polls
Inspiration
For all of the talk of Sanders being the heart candidate and Clinton the head candidate, 53% of Marylanders said that Clinton “is more inspiring about the country’s future.” She also won 96% of the people who thought her more inspiring but Sanders won only 78% of those who picked him.
Party ID on Democratic Side
Sanders has usually swept independents by a huge amount. In Maryland, Democratic primary voters who view themselves as independent voted only 54-39 for Sanders. In contrast, Clinton won the 81% of Democratic primary voters who saw themselves as Democrats by 67-32.
Party ID on Republican Side
Trump too usually does better among independents. Not in Maryland. Trump won 55% of Republican primary voters who identify as Republicans compared to just 44% of those who see themselves as independents.
White Evangelicals
Among the 36% of Republican primary voters who are white evangelical or born-again Christians, Trump won with 52% compared to just 24% for supposed evangelical heart throb Ted Cruz. Even Kasich managed 22% of white evangelicals. Trump did only one point better among other Republican voters. Stick a fork in Cruz, he’s done?
Clinton Strong Across Maryland
According to the exit polls:
East (21%): 65% Clinton, 32% Sanders
Baltimore Area (28%): 66% Clinton, 31% Sanders
DC Suburbs (35%): 66% Clinton, 33% Sanders
Central/West (15%): 53% Clinton, 45% Sanders
If these margins hold, Clinton should win most congressional district outside of the Sixth (i.e. Western Maryland) by roughly 2-1 and pick up a good number of delegates. Where the races are at all close, which can even include places where one candidate has a 10 point lead, candidates often come out with the same, or nearly the same, number of delegates.
Exit Polls Have Van Hollen Ahead
According to Nate Cohn, Van Hollen leads by 8 points in the exit polls.
Exit Polls North of the Mason-Dixon
Exit Poll Results
Early exit polls suggest the Maryland results will be:
Hillary, 64%
Bernie, 33%
Men are only 40% of the Democratic vote. Hillary won the white vote with 56% and the black vote with 76%. Blacks are the largest share of the electorate at 46%. Good news for Donna Edwards?
On the Republican side:
Trump, 62%
Kasich, 24%
Cruz, 21%
Men compose 52% of Republican voters. Huge gender gap with 59% of men voting Trump compared to 46% of women. Will Gov. Hogan endorse him?