All posts by David Lublin

The Generation Gap

The canyon that is the generation gap among Democratic primary voters continues in Maryland:

17-29 year olds (12%): 72% Sanders, 26% Clinton
30-44 year olds (24%): 55% Clinton, 44% Sanders
45-64 year olds (42%): 74% Clinton, 24% Sanders
65 and older (23%): 74% Clinton, 21% Sanders

Sanders devotees will point to his incredibly strong numbers among millennials, though they are lower than the stunning 85% and 90% that he managed to post elsewhere.

But there just aren’t that many of them. Millennials composed just 12% of the Democratic primary electorate. Older voters participate far more. People 45 and older formed 65% of Democratic primary. Clinton advocates will argue that this undercuts Sanders’s argument that he brings in tons of young voters.

Oh, and Hillary just won Pennsylvania.

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Surprises in the Presidential Exit Polls

Inspiration

For all of the talk of Sanders being the heart candidate and Clinton the head candidate, 53% of Marylanders said that Clinton “is more inspiring about the country’s future.” She also won 96% of the people who thought her more inspiring but Sanders won only 78% of those who picked him.

Party ID on Democratic Side

Sanders has usually swept independents by a huge amount. In Maryland, Democratic primary voters who view themselves as independent voted only 54-39 for Sanders. In contrast, Clinton won the 81% of Democratic primary voters who saw themselves as Democrats by 67-32.

Party ID on Republican Side

Trump too usually does better among independents. Not in Maryland. Trump won 55% of Republican primary voters who identify as Republicans compared to just 44% of those who see themselves as independents.

White Evangelicals

Among the 36% of Republican primary voters who are white evangelical or born-again Christians, Trump won with 52% compared to just 24% for supposed evangelical heart throb Ted Cruz. Even Kasich managed 22% of white evangelicals. Trump did only one point better among other Republican voters. Stick a fork in Cruz, he’s done?

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Clinton Strong Across Maryland

According to the exit polls:

East (21%): 65% Clinton, 32% Sanders
Baltimore Area (28%): 66% Clinton, 31% Sanders
DC Suburbs (35%): 66% Clinton, 33% Sanders
Central/West (15%): 53% Clinton, 45% Sanders

If these margins hold, Clinton should win most congressional district outside of the Sixth (i.e. Western Maryland) by roughly 2-1 and pick up a good number of delegates. Where the races are at all close, which can even include places where one candidate has a 10 point lead, candidates often come out with the same, or nearly the same, number of delegates.

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Exit Poll Results

Early exit polls suggest the Maryland results will be:

Hillary, 64%
Bernie, 33%

Men are only 40% of the Democratic vote. Hillary won the white vote with 56% and the black vote with 76%. Blacks are the largest share of the electorate at 46%. Good news for Donna Edwards?

On the Republican side:

Trump, 62%
Kasich, 24%
Cruz, 21%

Men compose 52% of Republican voters. Huge gender gap with 59% of men voting Trump compared to 46% of women. Will Gov. Hogan endorse him?

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