All posts by David Lublin

General Assembly

2018 Maryland Senate Ratings, Part I

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Today, 7S unveils its first set of ratings for Maryland Senate races for the 2018 election. We’re still in the middle of our four-year cycle for state races but politicians are already thinking about 2018 based on the number of fundraising solicitations I received prior to the start of the General Assembly session.

Safe Democratic

Anthony Brown in 2014 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 carried all of the seats classified as safe Democratic. Hogan lost two Montgomery (14 and 15) districts and one Howard (13) district by five points or less, though Clinton won all by large margins. Democrats easily won these legislative districts in 2014 and Republicans lack experienced candidates to challenge them.

By my estimation, Democrats start the cycle with 24 of the Senate’s 47 seats safely in the bag. For Democrats and Republicans, the fight is not about party control by whether the Republicans can gain enough seats in either house to sustain a veto should Hogan win reelection, as Democrats have been happy to override.

Safe Republican

Both Larry Hogan and Donald Trump carried all of the districts designated as safe Republican. Democrats lost several of these Senate seats in 2014 but these were low-hanging fruit for the GOP. In D6 (Baltimore County), for example, the miracle in 2014 wasn’t that Del. John Oleszewski narrowly lost the open seat but that he came close at all, as Hogan won by 51 and Trump by 25.

Despite Hogan’s victory in 2014, Republicans performed relatively poorly in Senate races. Democrats won every single district that Hogan won by less than 37 points (!) and two more where Hogan won an even higher share of the vote. No doubt these are the seats where Republicans will concentrate their efforts.

Republicans have just 14 safe seats. However, as the Democrats hold the other 33, they have more potential targets. All of the seats that could flip are currently held by Democrats.

Toss Up

Three seats held by Democrats will be toss-up races from the start. Democrats will need to hustle to retain these seats.

District 30 (Anne Arundel County). Sen. John Astle has already announced that he intends to run for mayor of Annapolis. If he wins that office, Democrats will have an opportunity to help his replacement to settle into the seat. Otherwise, Astle could run for reelection or retire.

This seat behaved far differently in 2016 than 2014. While Hogan ran away with the election by 29 points, Trump finished ahead of Clinton by a mere six-tenths of a percent. Incumbent Sen. Astle won with 51.4% in 2014, suggesting a vulnerable incumbent or a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans if he should retire.

Hogan will unquestionably outperform Trump but we just don’t know if by less or more than last time, or if he will show any willingness or ability to translate his own vote prowess down ballot. Nevertheless, this is one Democrats will have to fight to keep even if, on paper, it is less vulnerable than District 38.

District 38 (Lower Eastern Shore). Sen. Jim Mathias is the only white Democrat elected to the General Assembly from the Eastern Shore due to his incredible political skills and repeated heavy investment by Democrats who just refuse to let go of this seat. Hogan defeated Brown by 40 points and Trump beat Clinton by 28 points in this conservative district.

Mathias always faces a tough race and won with just 51.7% in 2014 against one of his delegates. If this popular former Ocean City Mayor won in extremely tough 2014, it’d be an epic mistake to count him out in 2018’s very different political climate. If Mathias doesn’t seek reelection, Republicans would be strongly favored to pick up the seat.

District 42 (Baltimore County). Sen. Jim Brochin proudly carves his own path in the Senate. Famous for being mercurial and an undependable vote, he and Senate President Mike Miller appear to cordially loathe one another.

Brochin is the most conservative Democrat, or extreme moderate, depending upon how you look at it. He’s happy to tout his good relations and frequent support for the Governor, who invites him often to press events when other Democrats are given the cold shoulder even if they sponsored the legislation.

District 42 has a split personality as Hogan carried it by 42% but Trump beat Clinton by just 2%. Sen. Brochin has defeated strong Republicans in the past (with 51.6% in 2014), suggesting he would be a tough opponent in 2018. It would be interesting to see if the Governor would go all in against his favorite Democrat.

Brochin, however, is expected to announce his candidacy for Baltimore County Executive, leaving the seat vacant. His departure would be a boon for Republicans, though not a sure thing. Republicans would have potentially strong candidates in Dels. Aumann or West, though Democrats have Del. Lafferty.

Conclusion

As always, Democrats start with huge advantages in elections for the Maryland Senate. The Republicans have a harder task than in 2014 because they have already won just about all of the natural Republican Senate seats.

Moreover, they will face a very different political environment at the national level. No backlash against a Democratic president will bring in a Republican tide. Trump fared exceptionally poorly in Maryland and it’s not hard to imagine him mobilizing angry Democrats.

Still, Democrats hold all of the vulnerable seats, mainly due to their past success in winning in different political environments. They should view these vulnerabilities as both a call to action and a potential opportunity to mobilize in areas they need to improve not just in 2018 but also in 2020.

Next Up: Lean and Likely Democratic

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David Vogt, House of Delegates, Media

More Evidence Trump Tactics at Heart of Maryland GOP as Vogt Fires Fraudster Aide

As 7S reported previously, Trumpian tactics of flat out lies followed by more flat out lies are evident at the heart of the Maryland Republican Party. More scandal related to this approach to politics emerged yesterday:

A legislative aide to a Frederick County lawmaker was fired after he was revealed Wednesday in a New York Times article to be the mastermind behind a fake political news website.

Cameron Harris, an aide to Delegate David E. Vogt III, R-District 4, previously ran the website ChristianTimesNewspaper.com, according to the Times.

The website published fabricated articles about things like thousands of ballots pre-marked to vote for Hillary Clinton in an Ohio warehouse, complete with photos stolen from other sources.

I guess the ChristianTimesNewspaper lied about the character of a woman and voter fraud in Jesus’s name. Harris also worked for Change Annapolis, an organization aligned with Gov. Hogan’s Change Maryland.

Del. Vogt’s initial reaction to the scandal’s revelation seems appropriate at first glance. He fired Harris and declared that he could not support such “dishonesty.” How we handle mistakes says much about our leaders and this was a good response.

At the same time, Harris’s statement that he did most of his work at a local Starbucks and Vogt did not know stretches credulity. Harris was not only Vogt’s chief aide, he lived in Vogt’s home until November 2016. While Harris managed Vogt’s failed congressional campaign, he created another defunct trickster website called delaneyforgovernor2018.com.

Harris issued a classic non-apology apology. This man who willfully misled people under the guise of religiosity wrote:

I apologize to those disappointed by my actions, and my wish is that I will be allowed to contribute my informed experience to a larger dialogue about how Americans approach the media, tough issues, and the manner in which we, collectively, will inform our decisions going forward.

Rather than taking real responsibility and saying it was wrong, Harris shifts the problem to “those disappointed.” If he really wants to “contribute,” he could start by owning his mistake and acknowledging that he is the problem, not the solution.

Such a statement makes it even harder to accept the claim by Harris, a serial liar, that Vogt knew nothing about Harris’s activities. It means that Vogt had no inkling that someone who he saw at work and lived in his house was undertaking dishonest activity that resembles that done on behalf of his own campaign and is a central thread of his character and work.

For now, I’ll give this ex-marine the benefit of the doubt. It doesn’t look ideal–and appearances matter in politics–but that’s not the same as it happened. And Vogt’s response, at least once the information went public, was the right one.

Just don’t ask me to give much credence to Vogt’s claims in future on national security or other issues. Not only did Del. Vogt support Trump, a man who seems ready to align our foreign policy with the authoritarian leader of a declining mid-rate power opposed to the U.S., but he failed in assessing character–or the total lack of it–in his own office.

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House of Delegates

New House of Delegates Leadership

After many years of leadership, and ruling her committee with an iron hand, Del. Sheila Hixson has stepped down as Chair of the Ways and Committee. Del. Anne Kaiser (D-14, Montgomery) is the new chair, and Del. Bill Frick (D-16, Montgomery) replaces Kaiser as the new majority leader.

All are excellent decisions. It’s gracious of Del. Hixson, after her lengthy and effective leadership as chair, to step down at this time and allow new leadership to emerge in a chamber that has seen mostly the same people at the helm for many years.

Del. Kaiser is an obvious choice to grow into her shoes. She has steadily moved up the leadership rungs in the House, and with good reason. The incoming chair combines smarts with savvy strategy with the latter being even more important than the former in an inherently political process. She also knows how to be a team player to get work done in a large legislative body.

Similarly, Del. Frick is a fine selection as majority leader. Another of the bright lights in the Montgomery delegation, Frick has pushed for new ideas, such as liquor decontrol, that are needed to move the County and the State forward. This appointment suggests that Frick is back on track after his abortive run for attorney general.

Finally, all of this reflects well on Speaker Busch. It’s not easy to facilitate transitions of this sort, especially when the outgoing chair is long-time trusted member of your leadership team. Kudos to the Speaker for these good decisions. Now, if he would just replace Judiciary Chair Joe Vallario, who has stood in the way of progress on too many issues, the House would really feel a fresh breeze.

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Jamie Raskin

Rep. Raskin to Boycott Inauguration

From Rep. Jamie Raskin (MD-8) on why he cannot bring himself to attend Trump’s Inauguration. His combination of a desire to witness to peaceful transfer of power yet a total revulsion many of Trump’s actions will no doubt be well understood by many readers:

“These are the times that try men’s [and women’s] souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he [or she] that stands by it now, deserves the thanks and love of man and woman.  Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”     

–Thomas Paine, The American Crisis

January 17, 2017

Dear Friends:

For the last couple of weeks, I have assumed that I would attend the inauguration of Donald Trump, obviously not to show any support for his politics but as a gesture of constitutionalism, simply to witness the peaceful transfer of power from President Obama to the new administration.

But, as the hour approaches, I realize that I cannot bring myself to go. I wish that these were normal times and that I could sit and applaud the normal workings of government as I did when Maryland Governor Larry Hogan was inaugurated in 2015 in Annapolis.

But these are not normal times and I cannot pretend as if they are. The moral and political legitimacy of this presidency is in the gravest doubt. I cannot get over Trump’s refusal to deal seriously with the constitutional problems caused by his business entanglements with foreign governments and corporations. I cannot get past his stubborn denial of the enormity of Russia’s efforts to sabotage and undermine our presidential election (regardless of the victor). I cannot stomach his relentless trafficking in bigotry, misogyny and fear. And I am outraged and confounded by his continuing provocations against civil rights heroes, such as my colleague the great Congressman John Lewis, union leaders and other individual citizens. Given these dynamics and given that one can never have any confidence in what Trump might say or tweet, I cannot risk my presence at his inauguration being interpreted as any kind of endorsement of the normality of our situation. I will not attend the inauguration. I do not rejoice in this decision or take pride in it, any more than I would rejoice or take pride in going; the inauguration ceremony is just a fact of life now, and we must all deal with it as best we can. I am afraid that these kinds of searing moral and political conflicts are our destiny for a while. (The State of the Union is next up, but I have every intention of going because the President will be entering our Chamber to speak to us.)

On Friday morning, I will be in our district, talking about our constitutional values with young people and preparing for the Women’s March on Saturday (more on that below). I’ll also be participating in a number of events aimed at organizing to defend liberal democracy in America. I invite you to join me as our country and our community prepare for the new era.

Organizing at Events to Defend Democracy

Tonight, I will attend the Refugee Ball at the Sixth & I Synagogue (details available here). Tomorrow, I am offering the keynote address at American University’s “Teach, Organize, Engage: A forum on contemporary politics and the future” at 3:00 p.m. (details available here) and will speak at an event on climate change called “Earth 2 Trump” at 6:00 p.m. (details available here). On Thursday, I will attend the Peace Ball at the National Museum of African-American History and Culture (details are available here, but unfortunately tickets are sold out); and the Peace, Love & Understanding Alt-Inaugural Show (details available here). On Friday, I’ll speak at the UnNaugural Concert in Silver Spring, which will benefit organizations like the ACLU, the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence, Planned Parenthood, the League of Conservation Voters, and the National LGBTQ Task Force (details available here, though unfortunately tickets have sold out); and I will attend the Planned Parenthood Pink Ball (details available here).

The Women’s March on Saturday, January 21

We’ve had an amazing response to our invitation to march with us! More than 1,800 people responded and we have 30 buses headed to the Women’s March after our Breakfast Reception and Rally at the Silver Spring Civic Building. Unfortunately, we have reached maximum capacity and have no more space on the buses! You can still RSVP to the breakfast (here), join us for the rally speeches and revival songs, and then take the Metro together afterwards—this will be fun too. You may also meet up with our group at the National Museum of the American Indian at the Maryland Avenue entrance. Look for a sign that says: “This is what a Popular Majority Looks Like. Congressman Jamie Raskin and Maryland’s 8th Congressional District Proudly Join the Women’s March.”

Inauguration Day Nature Walk in Rock Creek Park

Join me and my friend, author/naturalist Melanie Choukas-Bradley, at 4:00 p.m. on Friday, January 20 at Boundary Bridge in Rock Creek Park! In addition to everything else, our environmental laws are under severe attack right now.  Everyone who loves nature and cares about the conservation of our precious natural resources is invited to join me and my beloved friend Melanie Choukas-Bradley, author of the acclaimed A Year in Rock Creek Park, for an Inauguration Day nature walk to celebrate the historic beauty of Rock Creek Park. We will walk until the sun goes down, crossing Boundary Bridge, the historic footbridge from Maryland to D.C. that was built in 1935 during FDR’s New Deal, and then wind our way through the magnificent trees of the floodplain forest. Take heart. If you love and care about protecting our region’s natural resources and the planet, you are not alone. Please sign up here. We can accept the first 75 people who sign up; if you don’t make it, we’ll be doing it again soon.

Thank you for your continuing solidarity, encouragement and friendship. I look forward to seeing you at many of the above events, especially the Women’s March on Saturday!

Very truly yours,

Jamie

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Montgomery County

Leventhal Continues Soft Executive Announcement

Councilmember George Leventhal (D-AL) has not announced formally for county executive but has all but done so. First, he allowed local Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) leader Saqib Ali to launch a website promoting him for County Executive.

Now, Leventhal has started raising money under Montgomery County’s new public financing system using the fundraising limits in place for the position of county executive. He sent an email blast out the other day to supporters.

Leventhal touts that, thus far, he is the “only candidate to opt into the system” and reiterates the message “There is only one!” in red with an arrow pointing to his name.

LevClean

While technically true, Leventhal is the “only” candidate in the system simply because he is the first to set up an account. Councilmember Marc Elrich (D-AL) also plans to run for County Executive and has made very clear that he too plans to opt into the system.

Unlike Leventhal, Elrich has refused contributions from developers in the past and run much less expensive campaigns in the past. Focus on campaign spending is a new tactic for Leventhal.

Other potential candidates, such as Councilmember Roger Berliner (D-1) and Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-18) may also participate in the system. I imagine that wealthy businessman David Trone would not if he jumps into the race since he spent an extraordinary amount on his unsuccessful congressional bid.

So Leventhal heavily implies that he has a uniquely clean approach to politics while never actually stating anything that is factually untrue. The fundraising email contains no other message about past accomplishments or future goals.

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Montgomery County

Planning Board Approves Highest Tower Ever for Bethesda

The Montgomery County Planning Board has approved a 295 foot tower in Bethesda for the location of the current Apex Building at the corners of Wisconsin Ave. and Elm St. The building sits atop the proposed Purple Line stop and until recently was mainly known as the home of a movie theater.

This tower will be the highest building in Bethesda and far higher than the buildings currently atop the Red Line stop.

  • New Tower, 295 ft.
  • National Naval Medical Center, 264 ft.
  • Chevy Chase Bank East and West Towers, 250 ft.
  • Clark Building, 215 ft.
  • Air Rights Center, 149 ft.

The second highest building, National Naval Medical, isn’t even in downtown Bethesda but part of the Walter Reed campus near the Medical Center Metro stop.

Putting the new building in the broader DC context, it will be taller than the U.S. Capitol and just short of the National Cathedral.

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Larry Hogan

Assembly to Investigate Hogan Administration’s War on Christmas

Looks like the War on Christmas finally has its first casualties: ordinary workers who failed to receive the full pay that they earned due to incompetence by the Hogan Administration. Let’s hope cheating workers wasn’t the business sense that Hogan promised to bring to Annapolis.

The following is a press release from the Office of Senate President Mike Miller:

Joint Committee Announced to Investigate Shorted Employee Paychecks
State’s Failed Computer System has deprived employees of full paychecks before the Holiday season

Annapolis, MD – Today, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Senator Thomas “Mac” Middleton (D-28, Charles County), and House Appropriations Chairman Delegate Maggie McIntosh announced the creation of a joint legislative panel to address the mishandling of State employee paychecks in Maryland.

In a hearing before the Finance Committee in mid-December, the Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services cited over 1,100 emails from employees about the alarming mishandling of the employee payroll.

While the Department admits to have received over 1000 complaints, they have not released information regarding the size and scope of the problems with the system despite employees who have come forward about paychecks with missing overtime pay, base pay, and a lack of promotional pay. State employees who have brought the matter to the attention of the General Assembly testified about an inability to make their mortgage, health, and other critical payments due to the administration’s irresponsible oversight.

“What has happened here under this Administration is unconscionable,” stated Chairman Middleton. “The Administration was warned that the system was not ready and for two months, employees have been receiving partial paychecks even as we are approaching the holiday season. Some have been forced into terrible situations with many employees getting high interest loans just to make it through something that is squarely the fault of the Governor and his Administration, who have been insensitive as to how important a paycheck is to these public servants.”

The workgroup is similar to a review conducted by the legislature in 2014 around the technology failure of the Maryland Health Benefit Exchange.

“In an effort to save a few dollars, the Hogan administration ignored repeated warnings and put a payroll system in place that is cheating corrections officers and their families out of their pay during the holidays,” said Chairwoman McIntosh. “The administration’s response to this crisis has been to stonewall requests for information, insult the corrections officer’s union and deny the true size and scope of the problem. We are going to get to the bottom of this.”

Members of the workgroup will be announced next week.

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Casino, Montgomery County

BREAKING: Brookeville to Open Montgomery’s First Casino

brookeville-acadBrookeville Academy

Comptroller Peter Franchot’s discovery that the Town of Brookeville owes $7.2 million to the State of Maryland due to his office’s miscalculation of municipal tax receipts for many years placed the Town in quite a bind, as the municipality of just 134 souls had no idea how it could repay the debt.

Today, Brookeville Commission President Katherine Farquhar announced that, after working on the issue with the County and the State, Brookeville will open a casino in historic Brookeville Academy (pictured above), which is owned by the Town, to raise monies to pay off the debt to the State.

Franchot praised the decision, stating that he “appreciates the Town’s gratitude to my office for finding the errors” and plans to award the Town the Comptroller’s Medal for its “creative solution” to the Town’s financial difficulties.

Members of the County Council had initially expressed concerns regarding the project. But Council President Roger Berliner (D-1) has now announced that the casino will be the first recipient of the microloan program he has advertised on Facebook in anticipation of his 2018 County Executive bid.

In a press release, Berliner said “I’m so pleased that the microloan program will make the casino possible. It will help jump start Federal Realty’s development of the outbuildings for future expansion, showing the importance of partnerships like these.”

After initial opposition, Councilmember Tom Hucker (D-5) came on board once the Town agreed to hire MCGEO workers transferred from county liquor stores. “They know as much about gaming as beer, wine and liquor, so this is a great opportunity,” said MCGEO President Gino Renne.

Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Gigi Godwin agreed with the union president, as she commended the County for brushing aside development concerns with the adoption of a special Zoning Text Amendment (ZTA) over the objection of the Civic Federation. “We need the County to take a more proactive approach on business.”

Councilmember Hans Riemer (D-AL) also applauded the project, saying that he was happy to learn that Brookeville “is open to serving craft beers” that an official taskforce determined were crucial to revitalizing nightlife in the County.

The sole casino opponent, Councilmember Marc Elrich (D-AL), pointed out that Georgia Ave. is already a parking lot and that the development violated County traffic tests. His statement was interrupted by George Leventhal, who brusquely asked Elrich “Why do you care about people coming from Howard County? Haven’t you figured out we ignore you yet?”

In contrast, Councilmember Nancy Floreen (D-AL) expressed optimism regarding transportation: “SafeTrack has been such a success. We should use the projected savings on Metro to initiate a study on extending the Purple Line to Brookeville.”

The casino will have a War of 1812 theme, reflecting Brookeville’s role as the “U.S. Capital for a Day” in 1814 during the British occupation of Washington. The building’s exterior will be preserved as the interior is redesigned in a “modern Madisionian” style.

(P.S. I think most have figured out by now, but yes, this is satire. Happy New Year.)

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