All posts by David Lublin

District 43, Maryland Senate

Washington Challenges Conway, Part I

Sen. Joan Carter Conway (D-43) has not made her intentions clear regarding running for reelection but that has not stopped Del. Mary Washington (D-43) from throwing down the gauntlet and declaring her intention to run for the seat.

After winning election to the Baltimore City Council in 1995, Conway was appointed to the Senate in 1997 when Sen. John Pica, Jr. retired. Since then, she has won the Democratic nomination—tantamount to election in this district—five times. While Conway has faced stronger challenges in recent years, she has continued to win convincingly.

Past Democratic Primary Results in District 43
2014: Conway, 64.5%, Councilman Bill Henry (D-4), 35.5%.
2010: Conway, 69.5%, Hector Torres, 30.5%
2006: Conway, 92.0%, Dave Vane, 8.0%
2002: Conway, 100.0%
1998: Conway, 100.0%.

In 2014, Conway dispatched Councilman Bill Henry with ease, winning by a margin of 29%. Henry’s expenditure of $45,687.36, while not insubstantial, was below the threshold needed to take on an entrenched incumbent. Challengers don’t need to outspend incumbents but they do need enough for key expenditures.

Conway spent $146,993.41 in 2014 and this does not include any independent expenditures made on her behalf, though it does include some expenses for the general election. Though she once again contemplating retirement, having packed up her Senate office, Conway remains financially prepared to wage a serious reelection battle with $108,567.58 in her campaign account according to her January report from this year.

Conway has an interesting relationship with Senate President Mike Miller. While they don’t get along personally, Conway has long been part of Miller’s leadership team as Chair of the Education, Health and Environmental Affairs Committee. After the primary in 2014, Conway transferred $35,000 from her campaign account to Miller’s Democratic Senatorial Committee Slate and another $5,000 to conservative Sen. Roy Dyson (D-29). In short, there has been little friction on legislative or political matters even if Miller and Conway will never be BFFs.

Tomorrow, we take a closer look at the challenger, Del. Mary Washington.

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2018 Montgomery County Executive Race

Gus Bauman Responds on David Blair

Gus Bauman, an attorney, is a former chair of the Montgomery County Planning Board and as candidate for county executive. He sent me the following response to yesterday’s post on David Blair’s first outing with the press as a candidate for county executive.

Concerning your fine Seventh State post of November 14 on David Blair entering the Montgomery County Executive race, I have one small, but telling, bone to pick with your otherwise piercing analysis of Mr. Blair’s candidacy. You call Mr. Blair a “politician.” But all that you wrote underscores how he is not—-and that, in my judgment and experience, is not a good thing.

Know that I have not decided who to support among the six Democratic candidates. Obviously, given the field, I am inclined to support some. As the leaders of the County well know, I have for years raised the alarm of the need for a business-friendly government if we are to have any chance of maintaining a healthy tax base for needed public services.

As for experience, I first became engaged in political campaigns by supporting and speaking for presidential candidate JFK in 1960. I have worked in Congressional and presidential campaigns, all for Democratic candidates. I have twice served in government in Montgomery County. Once, I was even persuaded by a sizable group of women to run for Montgomery County Executive at a time when this community fielded three solid Democratic candidates and three solid Republican candidates. And I have chaired Nancy Floreen’s campaign in all four of her At-Large races for County Council (having an excellent candidate and politician made my job immeasurably easier).

All of that is to say that aside from being a close student of history, I also have pertinent experience to speak to the point—the point being, one should be leery of a candidate lacking not only governmental and political experience but also involvement with community organizations, who suddenly wishes to lead an increasingly complex political jurisdiction of 1,000,000 souls. There are so many examples in our history of the point, but you only need look to the current occupant of the White House for one more example.

Mr. Blair is an accomplished person. I have no doubt he is also a well-meaning man. But when you need a brain surgeon to delve into a brain problem, you would be wise not to hire, say, an accomplished auto parts manufacturer. Or even a General Practitioner.

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2018 Montgomery County Executive Race

David Blair’s Entry Raises More Questions Than Answers

Businessman David Blair became the sixth candidate to announce for county executive. However, beyond a willingness to open up his wallet (more on campaign finance below), there is little evidence that he is ready to run. Right now, this tech entrepreneur has no campaign website. (Correction: He does! It just doesn’t show up in the top Google searches yet.)

You May Have Questions. Does Blair Have Answers?

While it can be refreshing to see a politician who doesn’t claim to have all the answers, David Blair takes it a bit far. Based on his interview with Bethesda Beat’s Andrew Metcalf, he is neither ready nor willing to answer questions:

Asked if he’s always been a registered Democrat, Blair responded, “I believe so. I believe that’s a true statement.”

However, Maryland Board of Elections voter information indicates Blair was a registered Republican before he switched his registration to the Democratic Party in 2003.

Asked about that, Blair responded, “I don’t remember that. That could be accurate. … That could be.”

Blair refused to answer a question about taxes:

He declined to take a position on the County Council’s decision last year to raise property and recordation taxes.

“There will be a lot of opportunities to talk about specific policies,” Blair said.

And this was one of them.

He did seem ready with the political pablum:

“One of the ways to generate new revenue is through business,” Blair said. “We need more jobs here.”

“I have a vision to take Montgomery County to the next level.”

If Blair wants to enter the political arena, that’s great. But he needs to be ready to talk about issues when asked about them. I look forward not only to hearing more specifics but also more openness and willingness to answer questions from journalists and voters.

No on Public Financing. Will Empower Montgomery Launch an IE Campaign?

Unsurprisingly for someone from a very wealthy family, Blair said he will not participate in the public financing system. Bobby Lipman of MoCoVoters.org has already dinged him for this in the comments section of the Bethesda Beat article.

But why on earth would Blair want to waste his time asking people for small checks? Why would people want to give them to him? Why would he want to limit his spending when facing several better-known candidates?

More interesting from a campaign finance perspective is his decision to distance himself from Empower Montgomery:

When told he has been publicly referred to as a co-founder of the group, Blair said he contributed money.

“I would not consider myself a co-founder of that group, no,” Blair said.

Empower Montgomery’s website lists him as one of the founders of the group. . .

Empower Montgomery has now removed his name as one of the founders of the group.

If this pro-business group is planning an independent expenditure (IE) campaign on his behalf, Blair would not want to look like he is helping to direct it, as independent expenditures have to be independent to avoid legal troubles. And Empower Montgomery clearly plans to be active:

We are set up as a non-profit, tax exempt organization in Maryland, which allows us to perform a wide range of public education and advocacy activities and even participate in elections when key issues get elevated in the voter’s mindset.

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Republicans

Republican Civil War Comes to Maryland

Maryland Republican Party Secretary Mark Uncapher is challenging Montgomery County Party Chairman Dick Jurgena. Red Maryland reports and gives their anti-Jurgena spin on the race:

The current Montgomery GOP Chairman, Dick Jurgena, has had a controversial year as Chairman. He elevated Amie Hoeber to a prominent fundraising position and also publicly attacked Governor Hogan and other Congressional Republicans.

Uncapher, a former MoCo party chair, leveled his own attacks on Jurgena:

[I]nstead of focusing on MCGOP’s party building responsibilities, too much time and resources have been frittered away this past year on gadfly advocacy and fringe issues.

Just three months ago, the MCGOP’s Executive Committee voted to reverse the decision of Dick Jurgena and Ann Hingston gutting our participation in the Nation Builder/ Digital Toolkit data management program that the Hogan campaign and the Maryland Republican Party had asked us to use. . .

So far, this year only about a dozen new people have completed our monthly precinct training program. With over 250 precincts, that is not enough to replace the natural attrition from people dropping out, let alone fill our previously existing vacancies. . .

We must end this “closed meeting, private club” approach that has led to MCGOP’s failure to recruit new blood into the party.  Closed meetings have meant that hundreds of enthusiastic Trump Montgomery volunteers were never welcomed into our party this year.  We need break out of a mindset that Republicans will only be competitive in the highest income zip codes of Bethesda and Potomac, especially since that’s not where either Trump or Hogan have done the best in our county.

Uncapher’s capacity to engage in doublethink is perfect for the Trump administration. First, Republicans are not competitive in Bethesda or Potomac, as a glance at the District 16 election results shows clearly.

Even a strong, moderate state legislative candidate like Rose Li could only make so much headway. Trump received a whopping 21% of the vote in District 16. Apparently, this is what passes for “competitive” to Maryland Republicans.

Equally weird is his notion that there are legions of enthusiastic Trump supporters waiting to be welcomed into the party. Trump received less than 20% of the vote in Montgomery – an impressive seven points less than Mitt Romney in 2012.

Democrats will welcome the idea that the Republicans needs to emphasize Trump love in order to grow in Montgomery. Almost as much as party stalwarts enjoy Red Maryland’s steady castigation of Amie Hoeber as a Republican heretic.

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Virginia

Diving Into Virginia Results Reveals Depth of Republican Woes

Examining data more closely suggests strongly that Democrats were more energized than Republicans in 2017. The above graph shows changes in turnout from 2016 to 2017 as it relates to the share of a county or independent city that voted for Democratic Ralph Northam as a share of the two-party vote. In general, the more a place voted for Northam, the smaller the decline in turnout from the presidential election.

Analysis of the Virginia results does not suggest a bright future for Republicans. Democrats are doing well in fast-growing places and Republicans in shrinking places. This first map shows which counties are growing fastest.

Source: Cooper Center.

Suburban areas continue to show strong growth. In the DC suburbs, Loudoun and Prince William Counties, along with Alexandria and Arlington are on pace for greater than 10% growth.  The same is true in the Richmond, Charlottesville, and Fredericksburg areas, as well as Chesapeake and Suffolk Counties outside of Norfolk and Virginia Beach. Slow growth areas are centered in more rural Appalachian and Southside Virginia.

Next up, a map that shows where Northam and Gillespie each made gains relative to 2013.

Source: Washington Post.

Notice that the blue is concentrated primarily in almost the exact same fast-growing areas. In contrast, places with declining industries where people leave are trending Republican. Not too surprising when one considers that the Trump coalition was based on people who fear change and look to the future with foreboding.

It is a fascinating shift, however, as Republicans used to do incredibly well in precisely the sort of exurbs that are among the fastest growing places in the state. Twenty years ago, no one would have imagined that places like Henrico (Richmond suburbs) along with Prince William and Loudoun would anchor Democratic victories. Indeed, Republicans once expected growth in these areas to carry them to power. Not any more.

The shifts are even more dismal if one compares 2017 to the presidential election:

Source: New York Times.

 

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2018 Montgomery County Executive Race

Floreen on Krasnow

I asked retiring Councilmember Nancy Floreen (D-At Large) – the first councilmember to endorse a candidate for county executive – why she has endorsed former Rockville Mayor and Deputy Planning Director Rose Krasnow for County Executive:

Rose is a remarkable person. I think she’s just what Montgomery County needs to move us forward. Consider her background. She started her life of activism at age 11 in Memphis during the civil rights movement, then protested the expressway through Overton Park (which ultimately resulted in a famous land use decision by the Supreme Court), worked in Wall Street, ran a homeowners’ association, moved into City of Rockville politics as councilperson then Mayor, and on to managing a branch of United Way, then on to Park and Planning.

Rose has great financial and managerial experience, knows the county through and through, and will bring a fresh leadership style to lead the county into the future. She’s tough and will call things as she sees them.

Plus, Rose has a terrific sense of humor and is a huge sports fan. Strong, knowledgeable, and independent. What’s not to like?

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Overnight Analysis

Five Quick Takeaways from Last Night

Very Bad News for Maryland Republicans

If there was one lesson from last night, it’s that local Republicans cannot insulate themselves from this wave. It is a very strongly partisan era. No matter how much they tied themselves to the Trump mast or sailed away from his message they suffered.

In Maryland, Republicans went down big in Annapolis and Frederick. Republicans with strong local followings lost in Virginia. The areas in Virginia most like those that Maryland Republicans depend upon to win here – Loudoun and Prince William Counties – swung enormously against the Republicans.

Democrats win statewide in Virginia when they win these counties narrowly. Last night, they annihilated Republicans by 20 points. Neither Fairfax nor Prince William may have any more Republican delegates. Democrats also picked up seats in Loudoun.

This is terrible news for Maryland Republicans. Republican expectations of major gains in outer suburbs just got rolled back. Equally important, Larry Hogan now looks a lot more vulnerable than he did yesterday. It probably doesn’t help that he went down to Virginia to campaign for losing fear-mongering Trumpy candidate Ed Gillespie.

Organization is Important

Social media is not enough. Progressives talking to each other about how awful Republicans are doesn’t accomplish much. As much as I love blogs, action in the hard work of politics such as knocking on doors and other forms of meaningful voter contact to get out the message and the vote created the victory.

The effective deployment of huge numbers of Maryland volunteers played a critical role in getting out the vote in northern Virginia. Together with local volunteers, they helped create both impressive statewide victories and completely unexpected massive gains in the House of Delegates, which is utterly gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans.

Unquestionably, Trump fired up Democrats. There was a huge organic component of volunteers from resistance organizations that cannot be manufactured. But that surge needed to be channeled into effective organization. People need to go where they’re need, so kudos to people like Sens. Rich Madaleno and Roger Manno who spent yesterday in Frederick.

Yes, Trump and Federal Republicans are a Problem

There is no secret silent majority hidden from pollsters. Trump and the national Republicans are incredible millstones. As Todd Eberly explained, “Even if they don’t take the House, this was the stuff of nightmares for the GOP. A president at 36% and a Congress that can’t legislate is one helluva weight around the neck of the party.”

The Republicans face a legislative trap of their own making. They’ve promised their base wildly unrealistic, terrifically bad radical ideas that scare the public. Right now, they face a choice of disappointing their supporters or enacting them and angering the public – and possibly their own supporters when they discover what really happens.

Trump compounds these problems. His total unreliability and disloyalty toward legislative partners combined with his fecklessness and lack of knowledge about policy make him a terrible dealmaker. As it turns out, government by tweet doesn’t work.

Junk the Litmus Tests

Purity tests have become depressingly in vogue in the Democratic Party. Increasing numbers want to support only candidates they regard as meeting their litmus test and discarding others as heretics from the true faith.

Democrats spend too much time parsing candidates who are all progressive with the same goals. When elected, people like Ralph Northam and Tom Periello – both fine Democrats – face the same barriers to achievement. Don’t get mad at Democrats who compromise to push the agenda forward. It has worked very well for unquestionably progressive politicians like Chris Van Hollen and Jamie Raskin. Sure beats getting nothing done in order to remain untainted.

Ralph Northam was derided by many as too centrist. Whether or not he was a great campaigner, he was the right person in the right place. His moderation and reputation may have played a key role in reaching out to highly educated women who gave Democrats an important edge.

Medicaid expansion may come to Virginia as a result. Even if you regard single payer as the desired long-term solution, don’t knock providing health care to thousands more Virginians. That’s what the Democratic Party is all about. In short, stay focused on the goal, not comparatively small ideological differences. That’s how the Republicans got into this mess.

Authentic Diversity is Good for Democrats

Beyond major victories, the first two Latinas ever won election to the Virginia House. The very first transgender candidate ever won election to the state legislature, defeating a heinous politician who thrived on bigotry in the process. At the statewide level, an African American won election as Lieutenant Governor.

Authentic diversity occurs not because party leaders carefully balance tickets or pave the way for candidates from particular identity groups. It happens because candidates from various backgrounds jump into the political arena and do the same hard work of politics to build coalitions and support, as that is how nominations are won.

For example, Lt. Gov.-Elect Justin Fairfax ran four years ago and surprised by almost winning the nomination for Attorney General. Though he lost, he set himself up nicely to win the nomination and then the general election for Lt. Gov. this year. The two Latino winners sought office and ran hard in tough areas.

The key role for party leaders is not to downplay the chances of a candidate from Group X. In our partisan era, people seem very willing to vote for members of their party regardless of a different group. As Democrats have a diverse coalition, visible organic expression of it helps affirm the value of participation in it and fires up Democrats.

Postscript on Charlottesville

The citizens of Charlottesville sent  a powerful message in the wake of the horrific events foisted on their community. In 2017, 31% more people voted than four years ago, as compared to 16% across the state.  A stunning 85% voted for Northam and against Gillespie’s shameless stoking of racial tensions. A lopsided 64% did the same in surrounding Albermarle County.

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David Lublin

Stacked for Separatists? Catalonia’s Version of the Electoral College

Believe it or not, I don’t study Maryland much for my day job as a political scientist. Read my analysis on Catalonia in the Monkey Cage blog in the Washington Post.

Notwithstanding separatist leader Carles Puigdemont’s dramatic flight to Brussels, Catalonia’s fade from American headlines gives the impression that normalcy is gradually returning to the region in the wake of the ousting of the region’s separatist government by the Spanish central government.

Appearances are deceiving. New regional elections are scheduled for December 21 and the electoral system may yet again manufacture a separatist majority in a manner eerily parallel to the electoral college. In other words, what Catalonia has just gone through might well be the end of the beginning rather than the beginning of the end.

 

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Frederick County

Democrats Thump Republicans in City of Frederick

Frederick 2017 Unofficial Results by David Lublin on Scribd

Frederick voters came out to elect their mayor and city council today. Or at least 8,810, or 21%, of the 42,053 voters did. The Democratic sweep around the country extended into swingy Frederick, as Democrats trounced their Republican opponents.

Democratic Alderman Michael O’Connor beat incumbent Republican Mayor Randy McClement by 22%. The previous Board of Alderman had four Democrats and one Republican. No more as Democrats take full control. Incumbents Kelly Russell and Donna Kuzamchak will be joined by newcomers Derek Shackelford, Roger Wilson and Ben McShane. The nearest Republican fell 2273 votes behind the last place Democrat — a 26% difference.

Sens. Rich Madaleno and Roger Manno, candidates for governor and Congress, respectively, were both there to celebrate the big victory after working to get out the vote in Frederick earlier in the day.

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Annapolis

Immigrant Dem Elected Mayor of Annapolis, Defeating GOP Incumbent

In what sounds like a nightmare for the Trump crowd, one-term Annapolis Mayor Mike Pantelides (R), got beat by Gavin Buckley (D), an Australian immigrant. Buckley is a first-time officeholder. Just under 35% of Annapolitans turned out to vote in the hotly contested race.

The Board of Aldermen will continue to have seven Democratic and one Republican. Incumbent Alderman Frederick Paone (R) held on by just 18 votes against Kurt Riegel (D). In Ward 8, Incumbent Ross Arnett (D) held off a strong Republican challenge by 54 votes.

Here are the results.

Votes Percent
Mayor
Mike Pantelides R (i) 3354 38
Gavin Buckley D 5439 62
Board of Aldermen
Ward 1
Larry Claussen R 594 35
Eleanor Tierney D 1028 61
Ward 2
Frederick Paone R (i) 780 51
Kurt Riegel D 762 49
Ward 3
Rhonda Charles D (i) 648 97
Ward 4
Sheila Finlayson D (i) 380 72
Write-In WI 148 28
Ward 5
James Appel R 389 39
Marc Rodriguez D 610 61
Ward 6
Shaneka Henson D 426 95
Ward 7
David Frankel R 339 36
Rob Savidge D 592 63
Ward 8
Julie Mussog R 792 48
Ross Arnett D (i) 846 52

 

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