All posts by David Lublin

Upset in Howard District 9 Looks to Reduce Dem Senate Loss to Just 1 Seat

In my earlier count, I missed a surprise Democratic Senate pickup.

Democrats lost Districts 38 and 42 for the Senate. But they look to have pulled an upset in Howard/Carroll District 8 where Sen. Gail Bates narrowly trails Katie Fry Hester. Right now, Hester leads Bates by 154 votes, or 0.2%.

In District 9, absentee ballots have thus far been received from 1082 Democrats, 693 Republicans, and 348 unaffiliated and minor party registrants. These numbers don’t bode well for Bates. While Democrats compose 39% of active registered voters, they comprise 51% of received absentees.

Yet more evidence that Larry Hogan had no coattails.

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Dems Take Control of Two County Councils

In 2014, Democrats won 46 seats and Republicans 79 among the 23 counties holding elections for their counties and commissions. After tonight’s election, Democrats gained 5 seats to bring their total to 51 seats and drop Republicans to 74 seats.

In Anne Arundel and Dorchester, Democrats gained one seat apiece to take control of these county legislatures. Democrats also gained one seat apiece in Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

Democrats retained all the seats in Charles, Montgomery and Prince George’s. Republicans did the same in Allegany, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil, Garrett, Harford, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s and Washington Counties.

Right now, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the legislatures of 9 of Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions. These include most of the largest including Anne Arundel, Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Charles Howard, Montgomery, and Prince George’s.

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Major Upsets Confirmed in County Exec Races in Anne Arundel and Howard

In Anne Arundel with just two precincts left to be counted, incumbent Rep. County Exec. Steve Schuh is going down to Stuart Pittman, who leads Schuh by 51.8% to 48.1%.

Similarly, in Howard, Democrat Calvin Ball is defeating incumbent Rep. County Exec. Allen Kittleman by 52.3% to 47.6% with all precincts counted.

The Democratic bench for governor in 2022 just got a whole lot stronger with these two as well as Angela Alsobrooks in Prince George’s and Johnny Olszewski in Baltimore County. Republicans bragged that Baltimore County was in the bag but Johnny O trounced them with 57% of the vote.

Democrat Jan Gardner won reelection in Frederick. Republican Barry Glassman easily did the same in Harford. Republican Bob Culver won reelection with a plurality in Wicomico.

Finally, disproving the naysayers, Democratic Marc Elrich just crushed his competition in Montgomery. The message that developers need to be reined in had legs in both Anne Arundel and Montgomery Counties.

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Democrats Keep Veto Proof Senate Majority

Democrats look to have lost two seats in the Maryland Senate as the Republican drive for five Senate seats needed to uphold a veto by Gov. Larry Hogan easily falls short. No real coattails for Hogan as Democrats run for ahead of him in key seats.

In lower Eastern Shore District 38, Democratic Sen. Jim Mathias, the Harry Houdini of Maryland politics, finally met his match in Republican Del. Mary Beth Carozza. As expected, Republican Del. Chris West also gained District 42, but by just 51.8% to 48.2%.

Meanwhile, it looks like Kathy Klausmeier has hung on District 8 by 50.6% to 49.3% for Del. Christian Miele. A huge win for Democrats in a highly vulnerable seat that Hogan won by a mile. Dems even picked up a delegate seat as they were doing it.

In District 30, Dem Sarah Elfreth looks set to defeat former GOP Del. Ron George by a convincing 54-45 margin in a tough seat with a couple of precincts still out.

Dem Sen. Ron Young easily turned back Republican Craig Giangrande’s challenge by 57-43.

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Dems Gain 3 or 4 in House of Delegates

Right now, Democrats have lost no seats in the House of Delegates. Instead, with nearly all votes counted, Dem. Courtney Watson has beat GOP Del. Robert Flanagan by 14% in Howard District 9B. In Anne Arundel District 30, Busch is easily joined by Alice Cain to pickup the second seat.

In District 8, Democrats didn’t just defeat a wave but turned it back to pickup a second seat. Dem. Del. Eric Bromwell will be joined by Harry Bhandari. Meanwhile, incumbent GOP Del. Joe Cluster is going down to fellow Republican Joseph Boteler, III.

The humdinger this year is in Harford District 34A. Incumbent Dem. Del. Mary Ann Lisanti easily won reelection. Right now, Democrat Steve Johnson leads incumbent Republican Del. Glen Glass by 25 votes with all precincts counted. This one isn’t over but color me surprised that Democrats may pickup a fourth seat here.

Bottom line, the Democratic majority will grow by at least three and possibly four seats in the House of Delegates.

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Democratic Upsets Possible in AA & Howard County Exec Races

More signs that there are no coattails for Larry Hogan. Right now, upsets are brewing in Anne Arundel and Howard but a fair number of votes are left to be counted in both races. No other incumbents look endangered in either party.

In Anne Arundel, there are many votes left to be counted but Democrat Stuart Pittman is currently leading incumbent Republican County Exec. Steve Schuh by 52-48.

In Howard, 25 of 118 precincts are left to be counted by incumbent Republican County Executive Allen Kittleman is trailing Democrat Calvin Ball by 48-52.

In Baltimore County, you can get ready to call him County Executive Johnny O. He’s leading Redman by 57-43 with most precincts counted.

In Frederick, incumbent Democratic County Executive Jan Gardner leads Republican Del. Kathy Afzali by 52-44 with roughly 2/3 of precincts counted.

Incumbent Republican County Executive Barry Glassman is winning 2-1 in Harford County.

Developers pulled out all the stop to defeat Marc Elrich in Montgomery. The voters just elected him county executive with around 65% to 19% for independent Nancy Floreen and 16% for Robin Ficker. Most precincts have been counted.

Democratic State’s Attorney Angela Alsobrooks just become Prince George’s County Executive without opposition.

With all precincts counted, incumbent Republican Bob Culver is winning easily in Wicomico with a pluraity of 49% as the Democratic and Green candidates are splitting the remaining votes by 30-21.

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No Hogan Coattails in House as Dems Set to Gain 2-4 Delegates

Right now, not a single Democrat is going down in the House of Delegates. Instead, Republicans will lose seats. No coattails for Hogan as he wins on bipartisan governance.

Robert Flanagan is going down by 20 points in Howard District 9B to Courtney Watson.

Not only in Del. Eric Bromwell winning reelection in Baltimore County District 8, he may be accompanied by another Democrat. Right now, Democrat Harry Bhandari is in second place with incumbent Republican Del. Joe Cluster in third place.

Harford District 34A is a real shocker. Not only is incumbent Democratic Del. Mary Ann Lisanti breezing to victory, but her running mate, Steve Johnson, leads incumbent Republican Del. Glen Glass by 30 votes with all precincts reporting. This will go down to provisionals and absentees.

In District 30A, Speaker Busch will finally be joined by a Democrat. Retiring Del. Herb McMillan will be replaced by Alice Cain, who is easily defeating her Republican opponents by miles.

 

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Senate Looking Good for Democrats

Republicans made a drive for five Senate seats in the hopes of being able to uphold a veto by Gov. Larry Hogan. Hogan is coming back but the early vote is not encouraging in the drive for five.

Right now, the Republicans are leading in two seats. They are up by two points in District 42, an expected pickup by Del. Chris West of an open seat. Republican Del. Mary Beth Carozza is up by 6 over Sen. Jim Mathias on the Eastern Shore.

There is one more very close seat. Right now, Sen. Kathy Klausmeier leads Del. Christian Miele by just over 1% but only two precincts are left to report. This could go down to provisional ballots.

Ron Young looked very endangered in District 3 in Frederick but leads with 57%. Sarah Elfreth is on to an encouraging start in open District 30 in Anne Arundel with 58%

No surprises in the likely Dem seats, as Dels. Lam and Beidle look set to move up to the Senate. Sen. Prez Mike Miller breezing to victory.

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