Tag Archives: Jan Gardner

Party Performance By County

Overview
I have ranked Maryland’s counties and Baltimore City from least to most Democratic based on the average of the margin of victory for the respective Republican and Democratic candidates for President in the 2008 and 2012 election cycles.

Data
Garrett: R+45
Carroll: R+32
Allegheny: R+28
Queen Anne’s:- R+28
Caroline: R+23
Harford: R+18
Cecil: R+17
Washington: R+15
St Mary’s: R+14
Worcester: R+12
Talbot: R+11
Calvert: R+6
Dorchester: R+6
Wicomico: R+5
Frederick: R+2
Anne Arundel: R+1
Kent: EVEN
Somerset: EVEN
Baltimore County: D+16
Howard: D+22
Charles: D+28
Montgomery – D+43
Baltimore City: D+76
Prince George’s : D+79

Analysis
Several things jump out at me about this data. The first is that only six out of 24 jurisdictions lean Democratic. Luckily, those six happen to cast the vast majority of votes in the state. Furthermore, D+16 Baltimore County can no longer considered a swing jurisdiction, as it was for many years. The same is true of Howard and Charles. These three counties are now safely Democratic.

The second thing that jumps out at me is how few counties are relatively evenly split. Only Somerset, Kent, Frederick and Anne Arundel can be considered truly competitive. One could plausibly add Wicomico to that list, as well as perhaps Dorchester and Calvert if one were feeling charitable.

The map also showcases what a remarkable candidate Frank Kratovil was. He won 65% of the vote in Kent County in 2008 (Obama got 49%). That year, he won the most Republican county on the shore (Queen Anne’s) by ten points. He was the State’s Attorney there, so this isn’t entirely surprising. But he also won Caroline County with 52% of the vote. Kratovil eked out a two point win in Cecil, while cruising to a nine point victory in Worcester (and a fifteen point land slide in neighboring Wicomico). In heavily Somerset County, home to a large African-American population, he won by 19 points. Frank did lose Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore Counties. But he managed to carry every county on the Eastern Shore. In contrast, in 2010 Governor O’Malley carried not a single Eastern Shore County.

The numbers in Howard County show what a tough road to victory universally respected State Senator Alan Kittleman has. Conversely, the numbers in Anne Arundel give me hope for Democratic former Sheriff George Johnson’s bid for County Executive. The same is true of Jan Gardner in Frederick County. Republicans had once hoped to build majorities on their strength in these growing counties but it is just not happening.

The Maryland Democratic Party should invest substantive resources into the registration and turnout in Somerset County. The African American percentage is similar to Charles, and there’s no reason that Somerset couldn’t be delivering victories of victory for Team Blue. While in a county of a little over 26,000 this isn’t a game changer, it certainly is one of the view places with severe Democratic under performance in Maryland. It could also make a real difference in the Somerset’s government.

The results in Western Maryland are interesting as well. John Delaney lost Garrett and Allegheny counties by wide margins. He held Roscoe Bartlett to a virtual tie in Washington County. He managed to win Frederick; however, the District only contains the solidly Democratic precincts in Frederick City along with some swingier territory bordering Montgomery County.

In Montgomery, Delaney won by an unsurprisingly solid margin. All in all, Delaney’s $4 million plus investment of personal funds bought him substantial inroads in Western Maryland even if does not quite match the organic support Kratovil enjoyed on the Shore. Of course, Kratovil was a true product of the Shore, whereas Delaney was a does not live in his district. Culture matters in elections.

Lastly,  these numbers make me doubt any Republican will be able to win office in Montgomery County within my lifetime.

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Frederick County Exec Battle

FredCtyPartisanshipFrederick County Political Leanings

In 2014, voters in Frederick County will be electing their leaders under charter government for the first time. Previously, Frederick had been governed by a board of County Commissioners elected at-large. In 2014, they will elect a County Council with five members elected from districts and two at-large.

They will also be electing a County Executive for the first time. Blaine Young should be able to dispatch his Mark Sweadner, who was the Frederick County Budget Director for a long stretch in the 1990s, and David Gray–a sitting County Commissioner.

Young had $185,000 left over from his aborted gubernatorial Campaign in January. Jan Gardner, a Barbara Mikulski staffer and former County Commissioner had $43,000 in January. Young has money and a famous surname on his side. Frederick’s rapidly changing demographics favor Gardner.

Frederick County was once reliably rock ribbed Republican territory However, an influx of migrants from Montgomery County has turned the southern party of the County Purple. Combined with the increasingly Democratic City of Frederick nearly outweighs the dark Red, rural precincts in the northern part of the County. Frederick is perhaps the most swingy county in Maryland.

Gardner needs to turn out base Democratic Voters in Frederick City while also winning independents and Republican crossover votes in the southern part of the county. Young will need to super charge rural turnout and get as many Republican’s as possible in the rest of the County to vote. Someone as hard right as Young is unlikely to get many Democrat or Independent crossover votes.

This is one of the most competitive county general elections in Maryland this cycle.

Republican Primary Rating: Likely Young
General Election Rating: Toss Up

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