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Projected Impact of Congressional Reapportionment in 2020


Election Data Services (EDS) has produced its annual projection of seat gains and losses for the U.S. House. As usual, Maryland is not expected to gain or to lose a seat in 2020. The average district will contain just over 783,000 people in Maryland.

We are closer to gaining a ninth seat than to losing our eight seat. According to EDS, Maryland would require 293,188 more people than expected to gain a seat. On the other hand, the Census would need to show 485,502 people than projected to lose a seat.

States Expected to Gain Seats

Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)
Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8)
Florida +2 (from 27 to 29)
North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14)
Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6)
Texas +3 (from 36 to 39)

California and Virginia are the nearest other states to gaining a seat. A gain of just 29,302 people would give California the last seat in the U.S. House instead of Florida. Virginia missed gaining one more seat by 69,841 people.

Similarly, the lost of 15,608 people by Florida would cost the Sunshine State its second additional seat. Arizona would gain no new seats if it has 13,741 fewer people than expected.

States Expected to Lose Seats

Alabama -1 (from 7 to 6)
Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17)
Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13)
Minnesota -1 (from 8 to 7)
New York -1 (from 27 to 26)
Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15)
Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17)
Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)
West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2)

These counts do not include overseas military personnel. In 2000, their inclusion shifted a district from Utah to North Carolina.


States Gaining and Losing CDs


The Bureau of the Census has released population estimates for 2014. Election Data Services calculated changes in the number of congressional districts that would be allocated to each state based on the 2014 numbers:

Gaining One Seat
North Carolina

Losing One Seat

They have also projected changes in the number of CDs in each state after the 2020 Census:

Gaining Three Seats

Gaining One Seat
North Carolina

Losing One Seat
Rhode Island
West Virginia

Other potential gainers of one seat include Arizona and Oregon. Virginia’s seat gain is the most tenuous–they would get the last seat according to this projection. Other potential losers of one seat include New York. Florida has now surpassed New York to become the country’s third-largest state.


No one is projecting that the number of Maryland’s congressional districts will change from eight after the 2020 Census. In 2014, the estimated American population increase was 3.27% since the 2010 Census. Maryland’s gain was slightly higher at 3.51%–the 21st highest rate in the country–suggesting that there is little danger of losing a seat. However, Maryland is growing at a somewhat slower rate than similarly sized states that might gain seats.

Slow-Growing States

West Virginia, -0.15%
Maine, 0.13%
Vermont, 0.13%
Rhode Island, 0.21%Michigan, 0.26%
Illinois, 0.38%
Ohio, 0.50%
Connecticut, 0.63%
Pennsylvania, 0.66%
New Hampshire, 0.79%
Mississippi, 0.88%

All of the New England state, except Massachusetts, have grown at very slow rates. Rhode Island could lose one of its two CDs, leaving it with one very highly populated CD with over one million people. like Montana. So far, Maine and New Hampshire are not projected to lose one of their two CDs, though that would eventually happen unless their growth rates pick up.

Fast-Growing States and DC

North Dakota, 9.95%
District of Columbia, 9.49%
Texas, 7.20%
Colorado, 6.49%
Utah, 6.48%
Florida, 5.79%
Arizona, 5.31%
Nevada, 5.12%
Washington, 5.01%
South Dakota, 4.79%
South Carolina, 4.48%

Washington, DC is growing gangbusters and now has an estimated population of close to 659,000.