Tag Archives: Dana Stein

Your House of Delegates Scorecard

Any House of Delegates district that is crosspressured in the sense of having voted for Clinton in the 2016 presidential and for Hogan in the 2014 gubernatorial made this list. It additionally includes one district that elected a Democratic delegate in 2014 despite leaning Republican in these two contests.

Nevertheless, in many ways, the House of Delegates races are less interesting than the Senate. Republicans correctly perceive their chances of obtaining a veto-sustaining minority as greater in the Senate than the House.

Vulnerable Republican

Del. Robert Flanagan in District 9B is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in either house of the General Assembly. While Hogan won his district by 16 in 2014, Clinton won it by 19 in 2016. This Howard district is exactly the type that is trending hard towards the Democrats due to its highly educated electorate.

Even worse for Flanagan, his opponent is Courtney Watson. While Watson lost the county executive race to Allen Kittleman in 2014, she is a well-known and experienced candidate. Flanagan will need all the luck he can get to hang on to his seat.

Vulnerable Democrats

While Republican Glen Glass is likely safe in District 34A, any Democrat in Harford County always has to watch their back. Del. Mary Ann Lisanti who also represents 34A is no exception. The district, centered on Havre de Grace, went slightly for Clinton in 2016. The likelihood that Hogan will roll up an even greater margin than the 23 points he won in 2014 is no help to Lisanti. Still, she’s established and voters here clearly are used to splitting tickets.

In east Baltimore County District 8, the Republicans are likely safe and looking to take sole Democrat Del. Eric Bromwell’s seat. But Bromwells have long been a strong candidate in this district and he may be a tad better positioned than Sen. Kathy Klausmeier.

But Johnny Oleszewski’s family also had its own brand in neighboring District 6 before he lost in 2014. Bromwell came in third in 2014. While the best candidate that the Democrats could run, the question remains whether Bromwell can overcome a Hogan margin even more massive than the 36 points from 2014 in a district moving away from the Democrats.

Seeking a second term, Del. Ned Carey already represents Republican territory in District 31A in Anne Arundel. It went for Trump over Clinton by 4 points and for Hogan over Brown by 30 points. I suppose the good news for him is that the Hogan margin was smaller than in Bromwell’s district.

If he won this turf in tough 2014, Carey may be hard to dislodge in a more favorable 2018. Still, Carey won by just 52.6% in 2014, so has only a small cushion. Located just south of Baltimore City, the question is whether a less hellacious political climate can overcome an even larger margin for Hogan.

Likely Democrats (and Vulnerable Republican seat)

In District 30, Speaker Busch is looking to pick up the seat being vacated for his long-time bête noire Herb McMillan. While the Republicans always look to take out Busch, the recent Democratic sweep in Annapolis bodes far better for a Democratic pickup than a surprise defeat of Maryland’s longest serving Speaker.

I doubt Republicans will take out either Del. Michael Jackson in District 27B or pickup any of the three delegate seats in District 32, though Del. Michael Chang is the only incumbent running. Clinton won both districts by at least 12 points. Hogan’s margins will not be high enough to allow Republicans to capitalize on the gov’s success when split-ticket voting is rampant.

Safe Democrats

It seems virtually impossible that the Democrats will lose seats in Districts 3A, 11, ,12 or 42A. Hillary Clinton won all of these districts by more than 17 points. Voters in these districts are happy to split their tickets in the gubernatorial but it won’t be enough to take out the Democratic delegate candidates.

In District 3, Sen. Ron Young is endangered but District 3A excludes the most Republican turf. Dels. Carol Krimm and Karen Young should return to the House.

In District 11, the Republicans are running only one candidate. Incumbents Shelly Hettleman and Dana Stein will be rejoined by Jon Cardin, who ran unsuccessfully for attorney general in 2014.

District 12 contains much territory in Howard with many highly educated voters of the sort that are moving Democratic this year. There is little reason to think that the Republicans will close the substantial gap of several thousand votes from 2014. In any case, their top vote getter from that year is running for Senate. I expect Democratic Dels. Eric Ebersole and Terri Hill to be joined by Jessica Feldmark.

Incumbent Stephen Lafferty did not run for Senate and instead chose to seek reelection in District 42A. While Hogan will carry this district, it is hard to imagine Republicans defeating Lafferty in a district that went for Clinton by 30 points.

Early Voting Stats for These Districts

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Busch Announces New Leadership Team Members

The following is a press release from Speaker Michael Busch’s office:

SPEAKER BUSCH ANNOUNCES  NEW COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP APPOINTMENTS

ANNAPOLIS, MD – House Speaker Michael E. Busch today announced his first round of leadership appointments following the 2014 general election.   Speaker Busch describes the group collectively as “the right additions to the existing House leadership team to help move us forward into the coming term.”    He adds, “We are fortunate to have such a talented group of individuals to help lead the House.”   Speaker Busch plans to announce additional leadership appointments and committee moves in the coming weeks.

Delegate Maggie McIntosh (Baltimore City, D43) will become Chairman of the Appropriations Committee.   Delegate McIntosh has chaired the Environmental Matters Committee since 2003, but served on the Appropriations Committee early on in her legislative career.  Said Speaker Busch, “Maggie McIntosh is one of the most well respected leaders in Annapolis and I have total confidence in her ability to manage the myriad of subjects that fall within the jurisdiction of the committee, most importantly legislative review and oversight of the State’s annual budget.  She is the right person to take the lead on budget issues as we continue to provide critical services to the citizens of our State and to use our resources to foster a growing economy.”

Delegate Kumar Barve (Montgomery County, D17) will become the Chairman of the newly designated Environment & Transportation Committee (formerly Environmental Matters).   Moving forward, transportation policy issues will be consolidated within the Committee’s subject matter jurisdiction.   Delegate Barve has served as Majority Leader since 2003 and prior to that served on the House Economic Matters Committee under then-Chairman Busch.  He currently sits on the Ways and Means Committee.   Said Speaker Busch, “Delegate Barve has demonstrated time and time again his command of complex issues and he is a natural choice of someone to guide State environment and transportation policy.”

Delegate Adrienne Jones (Baltimore County, D10) will remain Speaker Pro Tem and will now oversee State higher education policy as Chairman of the Education and Economic Development Subcommittee in the Appropriations Committee.   Delegate Jones was Busch’s first appointment as a newly elected Speaker in 2003.   Said Speaker Busch, “Delegate Jones is one of the most versatile leaders in the House.  She is a consensus builder and an extremely hard worker.  With job growth and economic development at the forefront of our agenda in the coming term, I can think of no better person to lead on policy and budget issues related to our system of higher education.”   Delegate Jones will also continue to serve as the Chairman of the Capital Budget Subcommittee.

Having served as an instrumental member of the Ways and Means Committee since 2003 and as the Chair of the Education Subcommittee since 2007, Delegate Anne R. Kaiser (Montgomery County, D14) has been appointed as the Majority Leader.  Delegate Kaiser will also maintain her roles on the Ways and Means Committee. “Anne Kaiser has worked tirelessly for the House Democratic Caucus and demonstrated leadership capabilities on crucial legislative priorities,” said Speaker Busch.

Assuming the role of Vice Chairman of the Environment and Transportation Committee will be Delegate Dana Stein (Baltimore County, D11).   Stein was first elected to the House in 2006 and serves on the Environmental Matters Committee.   Said Speaker Busch, “Delegate Stein is a thoughtful legislator whose considerable knowledge and even temperament make him an ideal choice for Vice Chairman.”

Delegate Sally Jameson (Charles County, D28) will become Vice Chairman of the Economic Matters Committee.   Delegate Jameson is a long-time member of the Committee (since 2003) and is known for her work on energy issues.   Said Speaker Busch, “Delegate Jameson brings a business background and a pragmatic approach to the important workforce and economic development issues handled in the Economic Matters Committee.”

Delegate Marvin Holmes (Prince George’s County, D23B) will become Chairman of the Joint Committee on Legislative Ethics.    Delegate Holmes has been a member of the House since 2003 and has served in a number of leadership roles.   “Delegate Holmes is a model public servant and a person of great integrity.   He is the clear choice to Chair this important committee,” said Speaker Busch.

Delegate James Proctor (Prince Georges and Charles Counties, D27A), Vice Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, will remain in that role and also assume the House Chairmanship of the Spending Affordability Committee.     The Committee plays a critical role in the budgeting process as it annually establishes State spending guidelines based on current and projected economic conditions.   Said Speaker Busch, “Delegate Proctor’s commitment to public service and his budgetary experience is unparalleled and I look forward to his continued leadership in this new role.”

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