Tag Archives: Alan Kittleman

The Republican Bench

The Statewide Republican bench for 2022 got a whole lot deeper on November 4th.

Alan Kittleman
Pro-Marriage Equality, Anti-Death Penalty former State Senator and Howard County Executive Alan Kittleman is a suburban moderate Republican of the northeastern breed that’s been dying out since the early 90’s–socially liberal and fiscal conservative  with a patrician demeanor.  Kittleman brings a growing base in Howard County to a statewide contest.

Boyd Rutherford
The Lt Governor is supposedly an apolitical technocrat with no desire to run for office at the top of a ticket. But an apolitical technocrat who happens to be an African American from the Baltimore Suburbs with a certain affable charm could be a truly amazing statewide candidate. Food for thought.

Barry Glassman
The new Harford County Executive is a talented fundraiser and represents a rapidly growing jurisdiction with around one-quarter million residents. He has an appealingly home spun way about him and Fallston is not a bad place to start raising money for Governor.

Steve Schuh
If I were picking the Republican nominee for Governor, I’d go with the guy. Dartmouth undergrad. Harvard MBA. Masters in Education from Johns Hopkins. A former Senior Executive at two major investment banks. The incoming Chief Executive of one Maryland’s largest counties (Anne Arundel with nearly 700,000 residents). If that doesn’t spell gubernatorial contender, I don’t know what does.

Now, the most interesting play might be if instead of these guys fighting it out in the primary, they formed a formidable statewide ticket. Boyd Rutherford would be a highly intriguing candidate for Comptroller, and Alan Kittleman would be a credible candidate for Attorney General. With Schuh at the top of the ticket and and Glassman as Lt Governor, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a statewide Republican sweep.

The worst thing for the Democratic establishment to happen on November 4th wasn’t Larry Hogan’s election as Governor. It was the fact that further down ballot, Republican’s now have a legitimate bench of candidates.

Missing someone? Disagree with me? Email johnga.ems@gmail.com

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New Senate Set for Greater Polarization

MD Senate Id Change

Past posts have mentioned that the new Maryland General Assembly will be more polarized than the previous one. But what is the measurable impact of the election? Fortunately, since many new senators were formerly delegates, there are measures of their ideology in relation to other legislators.

Using the same dataset provided by Boris Shor and Nolan McCarty of state legislator ideology mentioned in previous posts, this post examines directly the ideology of incoming senators as compared to the people they are replacing. (The scale ranges from around -1.9 for the most liberal Democrat to 1.2 for the most conservative Republican with moderates closest to zero.)

In two cases, measures are not available but the impact is clear. Sens. Roy Dyson and Norm Stone were among the most very moderate members of the Democratic Caucus. They are being replaced by conservative Republicans. These changes will leave the Democrats more liberal and quite possibly also make the Republicans more conservative.

Two cases of Republicans being replaced by fellow Republicans will clearly make the GOP Caucus more conservative. Del. Gail Bates is more conservative than Alan Kittleman. Similarly, Del. Wayne Norman is also more conservative than Sen. Barry Glassman.

There are seven cases with less dramatic changes. Despite the fierce primary, Del. Michael Hough’s voting record has not been dramatically more conservative than Sen. Michael Brinkley. Theirs may be a difference more of style than of substance. But a more confrontational style likely exacerbates polarization.

In Howard County, Del. Guy Guzzone is a bit more liberal than outgoing Sen. Jim Robey. Del. Susan Lee is just a tad more liberal than AG-Elect Brian Frosh. Retiring Sen. Verna Jones-Rodwell has a somewhat less liberal voting record than Del. Shirley Nathan-Pulliam. The impact of the replacement of conservative Sen. Nancy Jacobs by Bob Casilly is less clear but it would be surprising if he turns out to be less conservative than Jacobs.

In two cases, changes may mildly reduce polarization. During her previous service in the House, Cheryl Kagan was a bit less liberal than outgoing Sen. Jennie Forehand. Similarly, Del. Addie Eckardt is a tad less conservative than defeated Sen. Richard Colburn. She is also viewed as a more thoughtful and productive member of the General Assembly than Colburn, who focused on scoring political points rather than shaping legislation.

The Overall Impact

Excluding the three seats won by people who have not served previously in the General Assembly, here are the calculations for the overall ideology of the Senate.

Median D: -1.107 (change of -0.005).
Mean D: -1.115 (change of -0.047).

Median R: 0.881 (change of 0.124).
Mean R: 0.883 (change of 0.062).

Increase in Polarization (Medians): 0.13 (7% increase).
Increase in Polarization (Means): 0.11 (6% increase).

Remember that these calculations underestimate increases in polarization because they exclude the two cases that will have the most dramatic impact–the replacement of Dyson and Stone–especially on the Democratic side as they were among the five most moderate Democrats in the Senate.

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Sleeper Senate Races?

Yesterday’s post on Senate races revealed that most contests are safely in the bag for one candidate or another but highlighted the four closest contests in the State. This afternoon, I take a look at races that are likely to go one way but have an outside potential to surprise. In truth, however, most just further illustrate the paucity of competitive Senate races in Maryland this year.

District 3: Young (D) v. Stottlemyer (R), Likely D
Over at Center Maryland, Josh Kurtz views Sen. Ron Young as a potentially vulnerable Democrat. I just don’t see it. Frederick County now has only a slight Republican lean. In the old District 3, Obama won 59% of the vote even in the old district, though O’Malley took just 48% in 2010. Redistricting shed the district’s most Republican territory, leaving it more Democratic.

In 2010, former longtime Frederick Mayor Young defeated incumbent Sen. Alex Mooney, who is now running for Congress in West Virginia. While Young has a well-funded campaign, his Republican opponent, Corey Stottlemeyer, has little cash to spend (<10K) and has sent no direct mail yet.

However, I suppose a surprisingly large Hogan wave combined with too many Youngs on the ballot–his wife, a former Frederick alderman and mayoral candidate, is running for delegate–could result in an upset. Except that it is much more likely that both members of this husband-wife team win.

District 6: Olszewski (D) v. Salling (R), Likely D
Johnny O. isn’t a character from Goodfellas or a member of a 1950s boy band. Instead, he’s a talented two-term delegate who is the junior half of a father-son political dynamic duo–Johnny O. Sr. has served on the Baltimore County Council since 1998.

In the 2010 delegate race, Johnny O. came in ahead of his fellow Democrats in this increasingly competitive district. But southeastern Baltimore County has not been immune to the attractions of GOP candidates. McCain won 54% in District 6 in 2008, and Ehrlich won 60% in 2010. Brown is not expected to perform well here.

I’d be shocked if Johnny O. didn’t become Sen. Johnny O. (J Yo?). Beyond his excellent father-son personal political brand, his opponent is not well funded. Nevertheless, a rash of straight ticket voting could possibly make this one to watch.

District 9: Frederic (D) v. Bates (R), Likely R
Democrats saw an opportunity to pick up a seat in increasingly Democratic Howard County when incumbent Sen. Alan Kittleman decided to run for county executive. But it looks likely that Del. Gail Bates, who has served in the House since 2002, will keep this district in Republican hands.

Things might have gone differently had the Democrats taken advantage of redistricting and been willing to rejigger the lines radically. However, the redistricting map kept the most Republican areas of Howard united in a single district and still contains a bit of uber-Republican Carroll County.

Though Democrat Ryan Frederic’s campaign is better funded, Bates’ campaign has had healthy financial support. Moreover, Bates’ opponent doesn’t have the name recognition or campaign experience that come from her multiple election victories.

Though Bates would probably prefer that popular Howard County Executive Ken Ulman not be #2 on the Democratic ticket, she’ll benefit from Kittleman leading the Republican charge on the local level. In a better Democratic year and with more demographic change, Frederic might have a better shot but a loss by Bates would be a real upset right now.

District 12: Kasemeyer v. Pippy, Likely D
The only reason that this district is on the likely rather than safe list is that Sen. Ed Kasemeyer won in 2010 with under 60% of the vote. However, the Chair of Budget and Tax unsurprisingly has a well-funded campaign. While Pippy has more than a token amount in his campaign account, it’s not really enough to mount a viable campaign against an entrenched incumbent.

I received some needed push back from my post yesterday declaring two seats safe for Democrats. Specifically, Sen. John Astle in District 30 has dicey turf for Democrats that will go for Hogan and Astle has had close races in the past. However, my cursory examination of campaign finance reports suggests an opponent without sufficient resources.

In District 8, Sen. Kathy Klausmeier also has swingy turf that could cause trouble for Democrats in a bad year but her opponent filed an affidavit indicating a lack of money. If the Republican Senate campaigns are more vibrant than I realize in these districts, let me know. No doubt both are concerned about an undertow due to low support for Lt. Gov. Brown in their area.

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Party Performance By County

Overview
I have ranked Maryland’s counties and Baltimore City from least to most Democratic based on the average of the margin of victory for the respective Republican and Democratic candidates for President in the 2008 and 2012 election cycles.

Data
Garrett: R+45
Carroll: R+32
Allegheny: R+28
Queen Anne’s:- R+28
Caroline: R+23
Harford: R+18
Cecil: R+17
Washington: R+15
St Mary’s: R+14
Worcester: R+12
Talbot: R+11
Calvert: R+6
Dorchester: R+6
Wicomico: R+5
Frederick: R+2
Anne Arundel: R+1
Kent: EVEN
Somerset: EVEN
Baltimore County: D+16
Howard: D+22
Charles: D+28
Montgomery – D+43
Baltimore City: D+76
Prince George’s : D+79

Analysis
Several things jump out at me about this data. The first is that only six out of 24 jurisdictions lean Democratic. Luckily, those six happen to cast the vast majority of votes in the state. Furthermore, D+16 Baltimore County can no longer considered a swing jurisdiction, as it was for many years. The same is true of Howard and Charles. These three counties are now safely Democratic.

The second thing that jumps out at me is how few counties are relatively evenly split. Only Somerset, Kent, Frederick and Anne Arundel can be considered truly competitive. One could plausibly add Wicomico to that list, as well as perhaps Dorchester and Calvert if one were feeling charitable.

The map also showcases what a remarkable candidate Frank Kratovil was. He won 65% of the vote in Kent County in 2008 (Obama got 49%). That year, he won the most Republican county on the shore (Queen Anne’s) by ten points. He was the State’s Attorney there, so this isn’t entirely surprising. But he also won Caroline County with 52% of the vote. Kratovil eked out a two point win in Cecil, while cruising to a nine point victory in Worcester (and a fifteen point land slide in neighboring Wicomico). In heavily Somerset County, home to a large African-American population, he won by 19 points. Frank did lose Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore Counties. But he managed to carry every county on the Eastern Shore. In contrast, in 2010 Governor O’Malley carried not a single Eastern Shore County.

The numbers in Howard County show what a tough road to victory universally respected State Senator Alan Kittleman has. Conversely, the numbers in Anne Arundel give me hope for Democratic former Sheriff George Johnson’s bid for County Executive. The same is true of Jan Gardner in Frederick County. Republicans had once hoped to build majorities on their strength in these growing counties but it is just not happening.

The Maryland Democratic Party should invest substantive resources into the registration and turnout in Somerset County. The African American percentage is similar to Charles, and there’s no reason that Somerset couldn’t be delivering victories of victory for Team Blue. While in a county of a little over 26,000 this isn’t a game changer, it certainly is one of the view places with severe Democratic under performance in Maryland. It could also make a real difference in the Somerset’s government.

The results in Western Maryland are interesting as well. John Delaney lost Garrett and Allegheny counties by wide margins. He held Roscoe Bartlett to a virtual tie in Washington County. He managed to win Frederick; however, the District only contains the solidly Democratic precincts in Frederick City along with some swingier territory bordering Montgomery County.

In Montgomery, Delaney won by an unsurprisingly solid margin. All in all, Delaney’s $4 million plus investment of personal funds bought him substantial inroads in Western Maryland even if does not quite match the organic support Kratovil enjoyed on the Shore. Of course, Kratovil was a true product of the Shore, whereas Delaney was a does not live in his district. Culture matters in elections.

Lastly,  these numbers make me doubt any Republican will be able to win office in Montgomery County within my lifetime.

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