Tag Archives: Larry Hogan

Joe Getty Hasn’t Resigned

Sen. Joe Getty (R-Carroll) is slated to take up a new position in the Hogan administration. However, a quick call to the Senate President’s office revealed that while Sen. Chris Shank (R-Washington), another Hogan appointee, stepped down with Hogan’s inauguration, Getty has not.

Getty’s continuance in office is likely not because he is especially slow off the dime or wants to hold on to his senate seat as long as possible but because of the kerfuffle surrounding the Carroll County Republican Central Committee’s (CCRC) strange decision to nominate walking political disaster Robin Frazier to the vacancy.

Democrats salivate at the thought of a Frazier appointment. She is guaranteed to generate endless bad press for the GOP. Needless to say, Hogan is less than thrilled. As Len Lazarick reported, he has demanded that the CCRC send up three names to him (read: someone other than Robin Frazier) in what I imagine is the desire to avoid tying his party or sharing the media cycle with this millstone. However, the CCRC website continues to announce Robin Frazier’s nomination.

Can Hogan get the CCRC to change its mind? That hasn’t occurred so far and neither has Getty’s resignation.

However, Facebook reports that the CCRC is going to meet tonight. Should be quite a show.

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ACT Sees Purple Line Dream Fade; MCDOT Follows 7S

The Action Committee for Transit (ACT) sees its Purple Line dreams moving out of reach and has sent out an email trying to rally support:

The Purple Line is again in grave danger — at the very moment when it is about to begin construction.

ACT’s definition of “about to begin construction” is different from most. While this phrase invokes visions of bulldozers ready to go, no federal funding has been awarded and the State has yet to receive–let alone evaluate–proposals from concessionaires (i.e. contractors) for the public private partnership (P3) who would still need to design the system.

Social Justice Out, Jobs Program In

The reasons that ACT believes we need to save the Purple Line have altered in focus:

Maryland will lose thousands of jobs in construction and future growth if we don’t build the Purple Line now.

Here, ACT has jettisoned its social justice rhetoric, formerly at the center of Purple Line appeals, so easily that it should give pause to those who support the Purple Line Compact to protect residents and businesses likely to be displaced by it. It’s now (and probably always was) all about something else.

Interestingly, the new front-and-center focus is on construction jobs. A temporary jobs program requiring massive public spending seems an odd way to appeal to our Governor-Elect and shows a tin ear in an attempt to bootstrap synchronicity with Hogan’s values by former Brown supporters.

Still Confusing Purple Line with Metro

Not all ACT rhetoric has changed:

The new Silver Line has four stations in Tysons Corner because Virginia understood the economic importance of rail transit; Maryland must not fall behind. Businesses and commuters are counting on the state to keep the commitments it has made and go forward with the Purple Line.

ACT  continues to equate the building of the light rail Purple Line, which will not be part of the Metro system, with the heavy rail Silver Line, which is integrated into Metro and will terminate at Dulles Airport. This effort to obfuscate the differences through the use of a color name similar to Metro lines has long been one of the most clever parts of ACT’s communications strategy. Light rail and heavy rail are quite different–the former is more similar to bus-rapid transit systems (RTS), though RTS is far less expensive.

Give to Aid the Land Company Now

ACT’s email closes with the traditional fundraising appeal:

If you can do one more thing for the Purple Line, ACT needs your financial help to continue our campaign. Please make a special contribution now.

By allowing for increased development, Purple Line proponents argue that it will raise land values around stations. Indeed, that is the goal. For example, the wealthy Chevy Chase Land Company is keen to see the Purple Line built–they’re organizing a letter to Hogan arguing for the pricey project–because it will increase the value of their holdings in that area. Yet we are asked to pay for the privilege of aiding the Land Company by donating to ACT.

Ironically, virtually all of the development over the short and medium terms will occur at Chevy Chase Lake without the Purple Line. The revised sector plan added 1.7 million square feet that will move forward with construction even if the Purple Line isn’t built. This will include about 700 apartments and 70 town houses, a hotel and over 250,000 square feet of commercial development. This is more than than the 1.3 million square feet that would be built much later on condition of Purple Line construction.

New Twitter Follower

I am happy to welcome the Montgomery County Department of Transportation Director’s Office as a follower to @theseventhstate.

Correction: Earlier version had MDOT instead of MCDOT. Apologies for the Error.

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Hogan to Appear at Committee for Montgomery

The annual Committee for Montgomery Legislative Breakfast will host Governor-Elect Larry Hogan as its keynote speaker. A great chance to chat with local politicos–it’s all about the coffee before the meal–it should be interesting if only for the dynamics, as all of the officials from Montgomery are Democrats.

Here is the notice:

Committee for Montgomery welcomes Governor-Elect Larry Hogan as the keynote speaker at our 25th Annual Legislative Breakfast, which is set for Friday, December 12that 7 a.m. at the Bethesda North Marriott Hotel and Conference Center.

This 20+ year old event is widely considered to be Montgomery County’s unofficial kickoff to the upcoming Maryland General Assembly session. Time is running out to become a sponsor and/or register. Sponsorship information is attached.

To register, go to Committee for Montgomery’s website: www.committeeformontgomery.org/events.

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Why Brown & KKT Lost

Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown did not lose because of poor Democratic turnout. Neither did Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. It is a dangerous myth in our party Montgomery and  Prince George’s Counties, combined with the City of Baltimore, are enough to win a statewide election.

The even more dangerous corollary to his theory is that, if the Big Three jurisdictions are enough to deliver victory statewide, the key is to nominate a candidate capable of driving turnout among the Democratic base voters in those three very progressive bastions. Sadly, this is not the case. Even if turnout in Montgomery, Prince George’s and Baltimore City had been 10 points higher, Larry Hogan would still be the Governor-Elect.

The truth of the matter is that Democrats cannot win a statewide election if they get killed in the Baltimore suburbs. Democrats still need to win some moderates to take the prize. For years, Martin O’Malley appealled to working class Democrats in places like Dundalk and Essex, as well as a certain number of wealthier suburb and exurbanites in places like Bel Air and Towson.

This–in addition to the D next to his name in Baltimore City, MoCo and Prince George’s County–gave him a winning statewide coalition in 2006 and 2010. O’Malley nearly won Baltimore County in 2006 before taking the prize outright in 2010. In 2010, O’Malley received 35% of the vote in Harford County, while Brown barely cracked 20% four years later. Barbara Mikulski frequently wins counties in Western Maryland and on the Eastern Shore.

Interestingly, Mikulski, O’Malley, Brown and Townsend are all center left to progressive Democrats with little policy disagreement of any true substance among them. So, why the difference in performance in these key areas?

As the legendary Virginia operative Mudcat Saunders oft moans, people vote based on culture not the issues. A guitar playing, Catholic school educated Irishmen with a disarming charm like O’Malley went a long way towards making gay marriage and the Dream Act–and progressive taxation–palatable to swing voters from Easton to Essex. A grandmotherly, Polish-American social worker like Mikulski can do the same.

But a stiff, Harvard-educated, former DC lawyer originally from Long Island, who happens to be black, like Anthony Brown has limited appeal outside of the polyglot Washington suburbs and Baltimore City. Likewise, a Kennedy from Greenwich, CT had limited appeal outside of Bethesda and Roland Park in 2002.

Right now, we don’t need someone to drive out mythical hard core progressives, who came out and voted for Anthony Brown anyway. We need someone who is as comfortable at Dundalk’s Fourth of July parade as at Takoma Park’s.

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Winners and Losers

Winners

1. Larry Hogan. Not only did he win but he completely shocked everybody by winning by a greater margin than Bob Ehrlich in 2002. A stunning victory by a Republican in Deep Blue Maryland. Democrats just didn’t think it was possible.

2. Polarization. The Democrats who lost in the General Assembly are almost all moderate or conservative Democrats: Sen. Roy Dyson, Del. David Rudolph, Del. Norm Conway. The Democrats will be more liberal and the Republicans more conservative. Expect even more acrimony between the Governor and the General Assembly than when Ehrlich was in office.

3. Chris Christie. I know one governor who will be endorsing him 2016. While Maryland doesn’t carry a lot of weight in the Republican Party, I am sure that Christie will welcome its delegates.

Losers

1. Martin O’Malley. The loss of his chosen successor undercuts completely his (vice?) presidential campaign. His legacy has now been repudiated by his own state at the polls.

2. Lieutenant Governors. The curse continues. Blair Lee lost in the primary, and now Katheen Kennedy Townsend and Anthony Brown have lost in the general. Perhaps Ken Ulman should be relieved.

3. Purple Line and Red Line. Governor-Elect Hogan has said he will not proceed with these projects. Why on earth should he throw billions at light-rail for areas that will never vote for him? He’d rather spend the money on roads.

4. Orange is Not the New Black. I am sure that Heather Mizeur was completely sincere in her Baltimore Sun opinion piece. But many who are not her diehard fans will view it as a cynical ploy to get her name before the voters even as she threw Anthony Brown under the bus while avowedly endorsing him. The most memorable moment of the campaign will not be forgotten.

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The Racial Math for a Brown Win

TheMath

I looked at the Gonzales (R) poll to get a sense of what Brown or Hogan would have to do in order to achieve a victory tomorrow. I’ll analyze the electorate from a racial prism because solid black turnout is critical to Anthony Brown’s chances.

Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich’s 2002 victory rested in large part on unusually low African-American turnout–blacks composed an astonishingly low share of the electorate in that year. In 2006, the CNN exit poll indicates that African Americans were 23% of the electorate, a major increase from 2002.

Gonzales estimates black turnout this year at 25%, at the low end of predictions but not at all out of the realm of possibility in our state where African Americans comprise 28.1% of the voting-age population. Moreover, African Americans have formed a greater part of the electorate in presidential years since at least 2000.

Let’s assume Gonzales is right and blacks form only one-quarter of the electorate. The share of the white vote that Brown needs to reach 50% depends on the the percentage of blacks who support him. Gonzales reports that Brown possesses an 87-5 advantage among African Americans.

Exit polls indicate that Gov. Ehrlich gained 15% of the black vote in 2006, when he lost his bid for reelection. It seems unlikely that Hogan could do as well against Brown, who would be the State’s first African-American governor. If one splits the undecideds in the same 87-5 proportion, Hogan still has just 5% of the black vote. But let’s say Brown’s share could fall in the 5% to 10% range.

If blacks are 25% of the electorate and Brown receives 95% of their votes, then he needs just 35.0% of the (mostly white) non-black vote to win election–this is 10% less than O’Malley won in 2006. If Brown gets 9 in 10 of black voters, however, Brown needs 36.7% of non-black voters to reach 50% of the total vote.

Obviously, Brown’s path becomes easier the higher the turnout among African Americans and the more solidly he is able to consolidate their votes. If black turnout inches up to 27% and Brown wins 95% of their votes, he would need just one-third of the non-black vote to win a majority.

Crucial to Brown is not just the racial composition but which non-blacks vote. In particular, reading the tea leaves of the Gonzales poll, whites in Baltimore City and the DC suburbs seem more likely to support Hogan. If they turn out at low rates, it would be easier for Hogan to reach the very high share of the non-black vote he needs. In contrast, Hogan would likely benefit from higher turnout in the Baltimore suburbs, Western Maryland, and the Eastern Shore.

Although Hogan is winning Republicans solidly, independents lopsidedly, and even a chunk of Democrats, his path remains difficult. Here is the share of the white vote won by a series of  Democrats according to exit polls:

Ben Cardin in 2012: 39%
Barack Obama in 2012: 43%
Barack Obama in 2008: 48%
Martin O’Malley in 2006: 45%
Ben Cardin in 2006: 48%
Barbara Mikulski in 2004: 56%
Townsend in 2002: 34% (estimate)

According to the Gonzales exit poll, Hogan leads Brown among whites by 59% to 31%.  If you divvy up the undecided voters in the same proportions as decided voters, then Brown would have 34.4% of the white vote. The last time Democrats scored this low in a statewide election was when Ehrlich beat Townsend in 2002–and blacks will certainly end up a higher share of the electorate than in that year and probably vote at a higher rate for Brown. Moreover, only the Gonzales survey, which was conducted for Republicans shows Brown with this low level of white support.

Lots to watch for tomorrow night. But if Brown gets at least 37% of the white vote, he is almost certain to win. And the share of the white vote he needs will decline if (1) black turnout goes above 25% and (2) the share of blacks who vote for him exceeds 90%. Another sign to watch is changes in turnout in Montgomery relative to the rest of the State. If Montgomery turnout drops relative to other jurisdictions, that could spell trouble for Brown.

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Hogan Slammed for NRA Support

In the final days of the gubernatorial campaign, attention is rightly being focused on Republican Nominee Larry Hogan’s refusal to release his responses to the NRA questionnaire on this issue. A good question: candidates should be prepared to share their views not just with special interest groups but the general public.

Moms Demand Action

Jennifer Coulter of Moms Demand Action is asking exactly what did Larry Hogan do to receive an A- rating from the NRA and this robocall funded by the NRA in support of his campaign:

Maryland Democrats are also pressing hard on Hogan’s unwillingness to share with the public what he promised the NRA in exchange for their support:

MDP

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Sunday, November 2nd, 2014
Contact:  443-221-4779
JSmith@mddems.org

BREAKING: NRA Robocalling Marylanders to Prop Up Larry Hogan

Payback – Gun Lobbyists Spending for Hogan After He Put Secret Promises in Writing to Earn NRA’s Endorsement

ANNAPOLIS, MD – Last night, reports across the state confirmed that the National Rifle Association is opening up their wallet to defend their endorsed candidate for Governor, Republican Larry Hogan. The robocall says that “there’s only one candidate in the race for governor of Maryland who has stood strong against the Obama Bloomberg gun control agenda, that candidate is Larry Hogan.” It goes on to attack Lt. Governor Brown because he “helped to enact one of the largest gun bans in the history of Maryland” – the ban on the sale of assault rifles contained in SB 281.

Larry Hogan, who filled out the NRA’s questionnaire, earned an A- rating, and was recently endorsed by the NRA, has continually refused to release the promises he put in writing to gun lobbyists.

“Larry Hogan opposed common sense background checks to prevent criminals from getting handguns and opposed banning the sale of assault rifles and high capacity magazines, so it’s no surprise that the gun lobbyists at the NRA are spending money to prop up his campaign,” said Jared Smith, Maryland Democratic Party Spokesman. “Larry Hogan has refused to release the questionnaire that earned him the NRA’s endorsement because he knows that Maryland families don’t support his dangerous pro-gun agenda.”

You can listen to the NRA’s pro-Hogan robocall by clicking here.

“Hello, this is the NRA calling from 703-267-1200 with an important election alert. There’s only one candidate in the race for governor of Maryland who has stood strong against the Obama Bloomberg gun control agenda, that candidate is Larry Hogan. His opponent, Anthony Brown helped to enact one of the largest gun bans in the history of Maryland last year. That extreme anti-gun legislation, Senate Bill 281 was enacted over the objections of thousands of Marylanders who voiced their strong opposition. Anthony Brown would expand the Obama Bloomberg gun control agenda as governor and further restrict the rights of Maryland’s law abiding gun owners. This race could be decided by just a handful of votes so your vote could make the difference. Please vote Larry Hogan for governor on November 4th and encourage your family and friends to do the same. Thank you”

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Peroutka in Mailer with Hogan and Schuh

@1430WNAV caught this story first and sourced the photos replicated here.Why are Larry Hogan and Steve Schuh in a mailer with a candidate they disavowed? In this mailer for the “Team for Change,” racist theocrat (h/t to Jon Hutson) Michael Peroutka is presented as just another Republican along with them:

Peroutka3

Peroutka2

Hogan and Schuh say that this is a mistake and continue to say his views have no place in the Republican Party. Then why did they allow their names to be attached on an official GOP flyer?  The official MD Republican line is: “He paid to be on a flyer.”

First, the GOP operative who thought it was a great idea to link their gubernatorial and county exec candidates to this loser should be fired. Second, Hogan and Schuh should publicly endorse Armstrong at an event at this point to undo the damage.

The real difference between Peroutka and Armstrong is really much simpler than presented in the mailer:

Peroutka

Remember this is a guy who said please rise for the national anthem before “Dixie” was played and advocates southern secession from the United States. As I said before, this is a chance for Democrats and Republicans to have a united purpose as we agree that politics is better off without Peroutka poison.

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People Voting Early. . . Just Not in West MoCo

Today’s Early Vote Takeaways:

  • Early Vote is Very Stable.
  • Democrats will Start Gaining from EV Tomorrow.
  • Western Montgomery Epicenter of Low Turnout.

EVGraph

Black = All, Blue = D, Red= R, Purple = Unaffiliated

Stability is the Story

Early voting remained highly stable on Day 6, rising just a bit over Day 5. The rate of Democratic turnout continues the trend of rising at a miniscule rate above Republican turnout. Right now, 6.04% (122,996) of registered Democrats have voted as compared to 5.97% (56,675) of Republicans and 2.59% (17,030) of the unaffiliated have cast ballots.

The number of registered voters who have voted early in 2014 equals 90.5% of the 2010 total across all days. The total number of Democrats who voted early in 2014 is 87.6% of 2010. The similar figures are 96.8% for Republicans and 93.0% for the unaffiliated. The higher GOP number reflects that they have virtually closed the gap in turnout with Democrats from 2010.

Democrats will Start Gaining Tomorrow

Total early voting turnout should exceed that of 2010 tomorrow. At that point Democrats will start to benefit from the ramp up in early voting despite the lost of their advantage in the rate of turnout. Due to their dominance, Democrats will extend their raw vote advantage over the Republicans.

Here are the Day 6 early vote and absentee totals by county:

early6

But Not as Much as They Might

The gap in turnout between high and low turnout counties continues to grow with the big three Democratic counties all lagging more and more behind the high turnout counties. Except for Howard, I expect every county above the state average in turnout to vote for Hogan. Charles, the only other solid Brown county, is also below the red line.

Western Montgomery Epicenter of Low Turnout

Turnout in Montgomery is especially abysmal, particularly on the west side of the County. Outside of portions of Allegany and Washington Counties, the four legislative districts in western Montgomery have the lowest early voting turnout rates in the State:

2.13% in District 15 (Potomac to Poolesville),
2.20% in District 16 (Bethesda),
2.59% in District 17 (Rockville-Gaithersburg),
2.05% in District 39 (Clarksburg-Germantown-Mont. Village).

Lt. Gov. Brown seems tailor made to appeal to the liberal voters who predominate in this part of the world. Yet, these levels are between 34% and 42% of the statewide rate. The mystery is even greater because education is usually heavily related to turnout and these districts have among the highest share of college graduates and people with graduate degrees in the country.

In short, these are exactly the sort of core Democratic voters that Brown needs to turn out. No wonder he spent yesterday morning at the Bethesda Metro Station greeting people as they entered the escalators. (P.S. Anyone who really fixes these perpetually under construction behemoths would get my vote.)

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Why is MoCo Turnout so Abysmal?

Montgomery Specific

1. It’s Always Nice to be Asked

Reminders to vote are few. I have received no calls–robocalls or person-to-person calls from either Democratic Party or the Brown campaign. Nor have I received any GOTV mail. Maybe it’s because I am a regular voter so they know that I’ll vote.

I did receive one candidate mailer from Chris Van Hollen and I think another from Ike Leggett. Nothing compared to the pre-primary deluge. On television, there are as many ads for Virginia Senate candidates as for the Maryland’s gubernatorial race.

We also could see more of Anthony Brown in person. It’s odd that it just doesn’t feel like the state’s largest jurisdiction has gotten much face time with the candidate. Turnout in Montgomery has been especially weak so events in Potomac or Bethesda as well as Rockville and Gaithersburg would not go amiss.

2. Organizational Weakness

Democrats are scrambling to get volunteers for early voting centers. The county training for precinct officials was less well-attended than in previous cycles. If Democrats are providing rides to the polls as in past years, I haven’t heard about it. Republicans have been weak for some time in Montgomery, and that hasn’t changed. Brown was smart and opened another campaign office in Bethesda but that doesn’t seem to have picked up the slack.

3. Surefire Winners

Virtually all of the Democratic candidates for elective office in Montgomery sit in safe seats, so voters have little reason to go to the polls and candidates have little incentive to mobilize them. Completely the opposite of the Democratic Primary. It also helps explain the gradual atrophy of the Democratic organization–muscles get flabby when they aren’t exercised.

4. Nobody Cares

Voters are profoundly uninterested in the election to the point that one would barely know that we are at the end of a campaign. Honestly, it just doesn’t feel like an election around here. There are almost no signs up outside people’s houses in my neck of the woods.

More General

5. Defend the Record

Take pride in it; don’t hide from it. In extremely tough economic times, Maryland balanced its budget and maintained its AAA bond rating while protecting public schools and universities–critical to both kids but and the State economy. Leadership played a key role in making Maryland the first state to vote for marriage equality. In contrast, Hogan has done a good job of creating resentment at what people haven’t liked.

6. Finally, Give Me a Reason

For whatever reason, Democratic messaging is not connecting in Montgomery. Democrats have given voters many reasons not to vote for Larry Hogan but the reasons to vote for Anthony Brown remain fuzzy or simply don’t excite. The ads on choice feel like the 1990s are calling and wants their commercials back, likely because Parris Glendening ran similar ones against Ellen Sauerbrey.

If the Purple Line motivates voters beyond core supporters and opponents, it is well hidden. Perhaps closing strongly with Brown’s positive pre-K and school construction program might give people a concrete reason to go out and vote for Anthony Brown.

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