Montgomery County, women

Not the Year of the Woman in MoCo

Top Line

Despite much talk about the need to vote for women this year, it wasn’t an unusually good year for women running for office. No women will sit in Maryland’s congressional delegation. Only one woman will be on the county council. Women netted two new delegates but no new senators in General Assembly contests.

Looking at the Results

At the federal level, Maryland’s delegation will remain all male as Del. Aruna Miller lost to David Trone for the Democratic nomination in the Sixth Congressional District.

In the county executive race, Rose Krasnow came in third with 15% of the vote but badly trails the two leaders, Marc Elrich and David Blair, who are neck-and-neck at 29%. The four other countywide offices were all won by incumbents.

The county council will have one woman on it: incumbent Nancy Navarro (D-4) who faced only token opposition as she breezed through to nomination for a final term.  The previous council had two women but Nancy Floreen (D-At Large) could not seek reelection and retired from public office.

All four of the county council at-large seats were won by men, incumbent Hans Riemer and newcomers Gabe Albornoz, Will Jawando, and Evan Glass. Marilyn Balcombe came in fifth place but currently trails Albornoz for the fourth seat by 4689 votes.

The district races were no better for women. District 1 had three solid female candidates who came in second, third and fourth. Ana Sol Gutierrez fell 2059 votes behind winner Andrew Friedson. Female challengers to incumbents in Districts 2 and 5 fell far behind the incumbent winners. No woman sought the Democratic nomination in District 3, where incumbent Sidney Katz edged out a male challenger, Ben Shnider.

The state legislative races were a brighter spot for gender parity but nevertheless showed only small gains for women: a net increase of two delegates. However, the latter is significant as it brings women to parity with 12 of the 24 delegate seats The share of women in the MoCo Senate delegation remains unchanged at 3 of 8.

In District 14, two of the delegates – Anne Kaiser and Pam Queen – are women. Lily Qi will replace Del. Aruna Miller in District 15, and will join incumbent Del. Kathleen Dumais.

Sen. Susan Lee was renominated in District 16, as was Del. Ariana Kelly. Right now, Samir Paul is edging out Sara Love for the seat currently held by Bill Frick, so looks like no change there either. Sen. Cheryl Kagan was renominated in District 17. Julie Palakovich Carr won the seat vacated by Andrew Platt, so D17 will gain one female delegate.

In District 18, Emily Shetty won a delegate nomination and looks set to replace Ana Sol Gutierrez as the only woman in the delegation. Three other female candidates ran behind incumbent Del. Al Carr and newcomer Jared Solomon. District 19 also saw turnover but no gender balance change. Charlotte Crutchfield will join sitting Del. Bonnie Cullison in Annapolis, as incumbent Del. Maricé Morales fell just a little short in her reelection effort.

District 20 will have continue to have two female delegates, as Del. Jhenelle Wilkins won renomination. She’ll be joined by Lorig Charkoudian, who will take the seat held by Del. Sheila Hixson. Finally, Sen. Nancy King won renomination in District 39. Lesley Lopez surprised by topping the delegate ballot, so D39 will now have one female delegate – a jump from zero.

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2018 Elections

House of Delegates Primary Roundup Districts 1-23

The Top Line

(1) Incumbents Maricé Morales and Joe Vallario will not be returning to the House of Delegates.
(2) Will Kathleen Dumais replace Vallario as Judiciary Committee Chair?

By the District

Republican Dels. Kathy Szeliga and Rick Impallaria traded barbs during the delegate race in D7 (Baltimore & Harford). Szeliga won the first spot with 23% to 15% for Impallaria. The third nomination went to newcomer Lauren Arikan with 14%, who led Aaron Penman with 11%.

In one of the few districts with split delegations, incumbent D8 (Baltimore) incumbent Republican Joe Cluster (25%) will be joined on the ticket by Joseph Boteler (21%) and Joe Norman (19%). On the Democratic side, incumbent Eric Bromwell (31%) will run with Henry Bhandari (28%) and Carl Jackson (25%)

In District 9B (Howard), former County Councilmember and County Exec Candidate Courtney Watson is set to take on incumbent Republican Del. Bob Flanagan. Watson won the Democratic nomination with 66%,

In District 10 (Baltimore), incumbent Del. Jay Jalisi easily won renomination despite tumultuous headlines during his first term regarding a physical altercation with his daughter.

In District 15 (Montgomery), Lily Qi looks set to join Dels. Kathleen Dumais and David Fraser-Hidalgo in this comfortable Democratic seat. Dumais led with 22%. Fraser-Hidalgo, who tragically lost his wife in the middle of the campaign and had to focus on his kids and grieving, came third with 17%. Qi won 18% to 14% for Amy Friedler and 12% for Kevin Mack.

In District 16 (Montgomery), incumbent Dels. Marc Korman and Ariana Kelly easily won renomination. Samir Paul is leading Sara Love for the third seat by 118 votes, or 0.3%, with absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted.

Incumbent Del. Kumar Barve led in D17 (Montgomery) with 26% followed by Rockville City Councilmember Julie Palakovich Carr with 25%. Despite being opposed by incumbent Sen. Cheryl Kagan, Del. Jim Gilchrist easily won a third term with 20%. Kagan-endorsed Julian Haffner trailed with 13%.

In D18 (Montgomery), it looks like Adam Pagnucco called it as incumbent Al Carr led the field with 22% followed by Emily Shetty at 20% and Jared Solomon at 18%. Leslie Milano finished in fourth with 14% with Town of Chevy Chase Councilmember Joel Rubin in fifth with 11%.

In D19 (Montgomery), incumbent Maricé Morales conceded graciously as she fell into fourth place with 16% after losing the Apple Ballot. Her ticket mate, incumbent Bonnie Cullison, led the field with 21%. Making a second bid, Charlotte Crutchfield roared into second with 18% of the vote. She’ll be joined by Vaughn Stewart who came in third with 17%.

In D20 (Montgomery), the ticket of incumbents David Moon (28%) and Jhenelle Wilkins (24%) accompanied by newcomer Lorig Charkoudian (19%) easily won. The race was soured towards the end when fourth place candidate Darian Unger’s (14%) campaign manager, John Rodriguez, was caught on tape throwing out literature for the winning ticket. Unger promptly fired him.

In D21, (Prince George’s), incumbent Dels. Joseline Peña-Melnyk (30%) and Ben Barnes (25%), were renominated and it looks like they be joined by Prince George’s County Councilmember Mary Lehman (19%). Matt Dernoga (18%), who formerly worked for Lehman, trails her by 173 votes.

In D23A (Prince George’s), incumbent Del, Geraldine Valentino-Smith looks to have only narrowly beat back a challenge by Shabnam Ahmed, a former student member of the Prince George’s County Board of Education. Valentino-Smith leads by 35 votes (0.6%) with absentees and provisionals yet to be counted.

D23B was equally interesting as longtime Judiciary Chair Joe Vallario lost with 22% of the vote. He was beat by incumbent Del. Marvin Holmes (27%) and Ron Watson, a former member of the Board of Education and O’Malley political appointee. Vallario was seen as a conservative barrier to progressive initiatives in the House. Vice Chair Kathleen Dumais, an excellent legislator, should be well positioned to succeed him as Chair. However, Anne Kaiser and Kumar Barve from Montgomery already hold  powerful committee chairs, which could complicate matters for the Speaker.

 

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2018 Elections

State Senate Primary Roundup

Top Lines

(1) In a series of blows to Mike Miller, incumbent Democratic Sens. Joan Carter Conway, Nathaniel McFadden and Mac Middleton lost renomination. All are safe Democratic seats, so Mary Washington, Cory McCray and Arthur Ellis look set to enter the Senate. Appointed Sen. Barbara Robinson also lost to Del. Antonio Hayes.

(2) Gail Bates, Bobby Zirkin, Ron Young, and Shirley Nathan-Pulliam all fended off serious primary challenges.

(3) Dels. Melony Griffth, former Del.Obie Patterson and Jeff Waldstreicher and appointed Sen. Del. Jill Carter won the nomination from safe seats and should also enter the Senate next year.

Key Races by the District

In D3 (Frederick), incumbent Sen. Ron Young (D) won renomination with 44% in a three-way race with his closest challenger being former Frederick Mayor Jennifer Dougherty, who won 33% of the vote. Not an impressive win for long-time Frederick pol.

In D9 (Howard and Carroll), incumbent Sen. Gail Bates (R) faced a surprisingly strong challenge from Reid Novotny, who argued that Bates is not conservative enough. Despite vastly outspending Novotny, Bates prevalied by just 54% to 46%.

In D11 (Baltimore), incumbent Bobby Zirkin (D) easily turned back a left-wing challenge. Zirkin won 70% to just 30% for Sheldon Laskin.

In Montgomery, the hot race was in D18, where the contest between Del. Jeff Waldstreicher and Dana Beyer for the seat left open by Rich Madaleno’s gubernatorial bid made it the most expensive Senate race in the state. Beyer was making her fourth bid for state legislative office. Waldstreicher won with just under 50% to 37% for Beyer and 13% for newcomer Michelle Carhart.

In Prince George’s, Doug Peters turned back a strong challenge from Tim Adams in D23. Peters prevailed with 59% to 41% for Adams.

In D24, former Del. Tiffany Alston sought to make a comeback in a challenge to incumbent Sen. Joanne Benson. Benson won with 52% to 32% for Alston and 16% for Everett Browning.

Former Del. Melony Griffith beat fellow Del. Angela Angel to win the race to replace Uly Currie in the open D25 (Prince George’s) seat. Griffith won 55% to 37% for Angel.

In D26 (Prince George’s), former Del. (now Councilmember) Obie Patterson beat PGDCC Member Jamila Woods by 58% to 42% to fill the open seat left when Sen. Anthony Muse sought election unsuccessfully to county executive.

Senate President Mike Miller easily turned back a vocal labor and Franchot-supported challenger, winning renomination with 72%.

In one of the great upsets of the night, longtime Sen. Mac Middleton lost renomination to Arthur Ellis, as Ellis won 52% to 48%. Middleton is a close ally of Mike Miller. Reflecting the shift in the racial balance in the county, Ellis will be D28’s (Charles) first African-American senator.

In D30 (Anne Arundel), Sarah Elfreth won the nomination to succeed retiring Sen. John Astle with 59% over progressive businesswoman Chrissy Holt.

D32 (Anne Arundel) is set to be one of the hot fall races. Del. Pam Beidle faced no opposition for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, County Councilmember John Grasso edged out first-time candidate Maureen Bryant by 51% to 49%.

In D34 (Harford), former Del. Mary-Dulany James is set to make her second bid for the Senate against now incumbent Sen. Bob Cassilly. James beat former Barbara Kreamer by 74% to 26%. Kreamer served in the House of Delegates and on the County Council between 1978 and 1991.

In D40 (Baltimore City), Del. Antonio Hayes unseated appointed Sen. Barbara Robinson by 65% to 35%.

In D41 (Baltimore City), unpredictable appointed Sen. and former Del. Jill Carter roared to a comeback, beating J.D. Merrill, a teacher married to Gov. Martin O’Malley’s daughter. Carter won with 55% to 39% for Merrill and 6% for convicted former Sen. Nat Oaks.

In District 42 (Baltimore), Robbie Leonard won the nomination to replace Democrat Jim Brochin, who lost his bid to become Baltimore County Executive. Leonard beat Gretchen Maneval by 60% to 40%. Leonard faces a tough general election fight against Republican Del. Chris West, who had no opposition.

District 43 (Baltimore City) provided another great shock of the night as powerful incumbent Sen. Joan Carter Conway lost to Del. Mary Washington, who prevailed by 3%. Running against the tide, I think I was one of the few who said Washington had a shot. Conway lost despite a huge warchest and staunch support from Mike Miller and fellow Del. Maggie McIntosh.

In District 44 (Baltimore City & County), Sen. Shirley Nathan-Pulliam turned back a challenge with 67% of the vote to 33% received by Aletheia McCaskill, who won support from SEIU.

In District 45 (Baltimore City), one of the least surprising incumbent defeats was that of incumbent Sen. Nathaniel McFadden, yet another Miller ally, by Del. Cory McCray. The young and energetic McCray beat longtime Sen. McFadden by 17 points.

 

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2018 Governor's Race

Looking Ahead for Jealous-Turnbull

Today is a day for winners to celebrate and the Ben Jealous-Susie Turnbull ticket is certainly entitled to do that after an impressive win with just under 40% of vote in a crowded field, according to preliminary returns. (I don’t expect absentee or provisional ballots to change the results much.).

Perhaps most impressively, Jealous carried 22 of Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions. The exceptions were Prince George’s, Rushern Baker’s home base, and Calvert, which is right next door. Even in Prince George’s, Jealous did respectably. Baker won 50% to 38% for Jealous – not far off his statewide percentage.

While not a majority, it sets up Jealous well as the clear winner and better positioned than eking out a narrow statewide win as he pivots to the general election. One might also note that the top two candidates were both African Americans and together won 88% of the vote, which should perhaps quiet talk that Democrats are unwilling to vote for black candidates for a bit.

The biggest advantages Jealous has going into the general election are the political nature of the state and national trends. Maryland is one of the few states that voted slightly more for Hillary Clinton in 2016 than for Barack Obama in 2012. Places Clinton won with 60% of the vote are not looking good for Republicans lately.

Even more crucially, the political climate is utterly reversed from four years ago. In 2014, the Democratic vote was depressed as a Republican wave crossed the country. Today, Maryland Democrats are hopping mad and energized in opposition to Trump and his supine Republican supporters.

Hogan will try to distance himself from his party label but in a Democratic state in a Democratic year, waves can overtake even the best efforts. Regardless, the popular Hogan will have to continue to run a good campaign to stay in office.

So today is a day for Jealous and his supporters to celebrate. Next up, what challenges does Jealous face as he looks to become Maryland’s governor?

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Montgomery County

First Take: Night of the Plutocrats

At first glance, tonight was a great night for Democratic candidates of rich people (not necessarily for rich people). Consider.

Ben Jealous and Susie Turnbull cast themselves as the left-wing progressive leaders but ultimately received huge sums of money from wealthy Californians. They also benefited enormously by being part of very elite Democratic circles that provided invaluable connections in bringing in national money and support.

In the Sixth Congressional District, David Trone is set to win the nomination after having shifted over from the Eighth. He spent over $10 million on each of his bids. This time, he beat two experienced and well-respected state legislators, Aruna Miller and Roger Manno.

The Montgomery County Executive race is now neck and neck between Marc Elrich and David Blair. As I write this, Elrich has a lead of 452 votes based on the preliminary count over Blair. Like David Trone, David Blair is a very successful businessman and self-funded his campaign, which was also heavily backed by developer interests. Elrich, a local progressive county councilmember, relied on public financing but was also backed by a large IE from progressive groups.

Blair’s campaign sidelined that of experienced politicians, including Roger Berliner, Bill Frick and Rose Krasnow, running in a  similar lane. Essentially, Blair’s ability to write himself large checks helped convince people leaning towards his point of view to back him over other choices.

In Montgomery County Council District 1, well-funded Andrew Friedson prevailed easily over his rivals for the open seat. The Friedson campaign had close ties with Trone and Comptroller Peter Franchot, another very wealthy politician. Franchot also endorsed Blair, and both Blair and Friedson appeared on the Blair-funded Washington Post sample ballot.

Of course, these facts may be totally irrelevant as to how they perform in office. In particular, I look forward to watching Friedson, an energetic budget wonk, in office. But it also reminds me why E. E. Schattschneider once said “The flaw in the pluralist heaven is that the heavenly chorus sings with a strong upper-class accent.”

So we can debate how good a night it was for the establishment, which usually seems defined as whomever one personally doesn’t like at the moment. But it doesn’t seem a bad night at all for wealthy candidates and the people they support.

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Uncategorized

MoCo State Leg Update: Delegates Morales and Robinson Trailing Narrowly in Tight Races

State Senate

In District 18, Del. Jeff Waldstreicher looks set to win the Democratic nomination with 50% to 38% for Dana Beyer and 12% for Michelle Carhart.

House of Delegates

Incumbents Kathleen Dumais and David Fraser-Hidalgo look set to be joined by Lily Qi in D15.

In D16, incumbents Marc Korman and Ariana Kelly look set for reelection. It’s a tight race between Samir Paul and Sara Love in a tight race for the third slot with Love ahead by 18 votes!

The ticket of incumbents Kumar Barve and Jim Gilchrist along with Julie Palakovich-Carr look set to win in D17. Incumbent Sen. Cheryl Kagan endorsed Julian Haffner, who trails in fourth by roughly 1400 votes.

In D18, incumbent Al Carr leads the pack with newcomers Emily Shetty and Jared Solomon looking set to join him. Leslie Milano is in fourth but around 1000 votes behind Solomon.

One of two incumbents currently trailing is in D19. Incumbent Bonnie Cullison leads followed by Charlotte Crutchfield. Vaugh Stewart leads incumbent Maricé Morales for the third slot by 133 votes. This one is going to take awhile.

In D20, the ticket of incumbents David Moon and Jhenelle Wilkins along with newcomer Lorig Charkoudian are set to go to Annapolis. Darian Unger trails in fourth.

In D39, incumbent Shane Robinson is struggling in fourth, behind incumbents Kirill Reznik and newcomers Lesley Lopez and Gabriel Acevero. Lopez leads with 3,320 followed by Gabriel Acevero with 3,175 followed by incumbent Kirill Reznik with 3,125. Shane Robinson trails Reznik with 3,032.

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Uncategorized

Results Update 1: It’s a Great Night for Money

So with more votes in, it’s looking good statewide for Jealous/Turnbull for Governor with around 39% of the vote in a fractured Democratic field.

David Trone looks likely to win the congressional race in CD6 that he lost in CD8 two years ago. He has 40% to 32% for Aruna Miller.

In CD8, the unknown Jamie Raskin is edging out the ubiquitous Utam, Paul with 91% to 4% with Summer Spring sneaking into second with 6%.

In Prince George’s, Angela Alsobrooks is looking at an easy win over Donna Edwards and Anthony Muse.

The Montgomery County Executive race is looking to be the humdinger. Right now, Marc Elrich has 28%, just behind David Blair who has 29% – a difference of 178 votes.

In Council District 1, Andrew Friedson seems comfortably in the lead with 30% of the vote.

In Council District 3, Sidney Katz is fending off a challenge Ben Shnider with 54% to 46%.

 

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Election Night

Early Voting in MoCo

County Executive

           Roger Berliner.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     4,143   13.15
           David Blair.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     8,670   27.52
           Marc Elrich.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     9,000   28.57
           Bill Frick .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       979    3.11
           Rose Krasnow  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     4,773   15.15
           George L. Leventhal .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,934   12.49

Council At-Large

           Gabe Albornoz .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     9,199    8.19
           Rosemary O. Arkoian .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,295    1.15
           Marilyn Balcombe .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     7,152    6.37
           Charles Barkley  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,253    2.01
           Shruti Bhatnagar .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,048    1.82
           Cherri L. Branson.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,425    2.16
           Brandy H. M. Brooks .  .  .  .  .  .  .     6,813    6.07
           Craig Carozza-Caviness .  .  .  .  .  .       294     .26
           Ron Colbert.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       277     .25
           Bill Conway.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,714    3.31
           Hoan Dang  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     4,497    4.01
           Tom R. Falcinelli, Jr. .  .  .  .  .  .       475     .42
           Lorna Phillips Forde.  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,658    1.48
           Jill Ortman Fouse.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,884    3.46
           Loretta Jean Garcia .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,914    1.70
           Paul S. Geller.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       782     .70
           Evan Glass .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     9,699    8.64
           Richard Gottfried.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       559     .50
           Neil H. Greenberger .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,457    1.30
           Seth Grimes.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,653    1.47
           Ashwani Jain  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     4,874    4.34
           Will Jawando  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    12,080   10.76
           David V. Lipscomb.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       426     .38
           Melissa McKenna  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,647    1.47
           Danielle Meitiv  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,636    3.24
           Hans Riemer.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    14,719   13.11
           Michele Riley .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,270    1.13
           Graciela Rivera-Oven.  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,279    1.14
           Darwin Romero .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       372     .33
           Mohammad Siddique.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,842    1.64
           Jarrett Smith .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       527     .47
           Steve Solomon .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,108     .99
           Chris Wilhelm .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     6,433    5.73

Council District 1

           Bill Cook  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       148    2.01
           Pete Fosselman.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       696    9.47
           Andrew Friedson  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,090   28.45
           Ana Sol Gutierrez.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,514   20.61
           Jim McGee  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       138    1.88
           Regina "Reggie" Oldak  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,405   19.12
           Dalbin Osorio .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .        36     .49
           Meredith Wellington .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,320   17.97

Council District 3

           Sidney A. Katz.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,981   56.29
           Ben Shnider.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,315   43.71
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Adam Pagnucco, washington post

The Washington Post Ballots

By Adam Pagnucco.

Two ballots were handed out today announcing county-level endorsements by the Washington Post.

The first one shows all of the Post’s endorsements for County Executive, County Council and Board of Education.  It has an authority line from David Blair’s campaign.  We hear that several other Post-endorsed campaigns distributed it in addition to Blair’s people.  The presence of an authority line makes it legal and the fact that it included all the county Post endorsements, not just some, is fair.

The second one shows just four of the Post’s endorsements: County Executive (Blair), Council At-Large (Evan Glass and Marilyn Balcombe) and Council District 1 (Andrew Friedson).  The other two Council At-Large Post endorsees (incumbent Hans Riemer and Gabe Albornoz) do not appear.  It has no visible authority line.  This particular one was distributed in Bethesda but we have no idea how many were handed out.  If it indeed lacks an authority line, this ballot violated state election law.  It was also misleading because it only partially lists the Council At-Large endorsements.  No campaign has admitted responsibility for this flyer.

We have not seen a “Washington Post Ballot” in the past.  But if it continues, and if campaigns can agree on funding it, it could conceivably be turned into an alternative to the Apple Ballot.

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Maryland Politics Watch