By Adam Pagnucco.
In an email to numerous Boards of Elections officials and others, Paul Aumayr, the Director of the State Board of Elections Voting Systems Division, has stated that the board will not be reprinting ballots to accommodate Valerie Ervin’s decision to run for Governor. We reprint the email below.
By Adam Pagnucco.
Yesterday, a reader asked on our Facebook page why there were no comments directly on Seventh State posts. Well, we have a history with comments.
Our old blog, Maryland Politics Watch, originally allowed anonymous comments. That was a mistake! Many of them were vile, personal, racist and downright deplorable (just like a certain President’s Twitter feed). Eventually, the anons chased out almost all of the people commenting under their own names. The final straw came when a candidate dropped out of a race because of a terminal illness in his family. An anonymous commenter accused him of making up the illness and dropping out because he allegedly knew he would lose. The candidate went ballistic. That’s when we banned anonymous comments and required people to use their real names.
But that wasn’t enough. Under our old platform, Blogger, it was very easy to register a Google or Blogger account under any name and use it for commenting. How could we tell if they were real or not? The issue came to a head during my war with the “Boy King,” an intern hired by the Washington Post to write editorials about MoCo and Maryland. The Boy King became so alarmed by my writings that he sent a college friend to troll us using a phony name. So I tracked him down and printed the troll’s real name! That was great fun, but I thought, “Why am I spending so much time on this when I could be writing real stuff?” The new policy was ineffective.
Accordingly, when David Lublin started Seventh State, I totally understood why he was uninterested in going down that road again. But we had a new tool for interaction that had not yet ripened in the old days: Facebook. For better or worse, Facebook has become Seventh State’s de facto comment page. There are certainly phony Facebook accounts and some of them played a role in our last presidential election. But sadly, Vladimir Putin seems to not care about who gets elected to the Montgomery County Council, so there don’t seem to be a lot of bots here!
The quality of interaction that we get through Facebook far exceeds what we were able to obtain in the Maryland Politics Watch days. I personally read every single comment on the Facebook page. I like most of them and learn from a lot of them, even – and perhaps especially – from the folks who disagree with me. There have been several occasions when a reader’s comment caused me to think, “Hmmmmm, I should look into that. That could be a great post!”
Overall, the comments we receive reinforce what David and I have known for a long time – you are the best media audience in the county and perhaps in the entire state. No one knows our politics and our community better than Seventh State readers. Maybe more importantly, no one CARES more than Seventh State readers. That’s why elected officials, candidates, advocates and other muckety-mucks come on here. They may not care what David and I think, but they care what YOU think, and they should.
Thank you for reading Seventh State.
By Adam Pagnucco.
Budget time is a busy one for Council Members. It involves an unusual amount of meetings, work and negotiation even by the sometimes hectic standards of Rockville. So when the budget is over, the whole building breathes a sigh of relief and Council Members put out exultant press releases.
Not this year. Council Member Craig Rice, who chairs the council’s Education Committee, sent out a statement seething with unhappiness about the council’s funding of Montgomery College and singling out the process led by Council President Hans Riemer. The key lines are:
I unfortunately find myself in a very difficult and torn position, frustrated about the fact that I encountered what I feel was a flawed budget process, something that I’ve never seen in my 8-year tenure here on the Council. Something that encompassed disrespecting my committee’s hard work and well researched and coordinated recommendations for what seems is the gain of a tagline in an election year.
As Chair of the Education Committee, I truly appreciate the County Executive’s support of Montgomery County Public Schools and fully funding their budget. And I also appreciate my Council colleagues’ support to invest in our future by investing in our schools.
And while I celebrate the success of everything in this budget related to MCPS, conversely, I am dismayed at the fact that Montgomery College’s budget was severely cut which could mean even greater increases in tuition than originally proposed, reductions to strategic programs designed to reduce the achievement gap and eliminate disparities, or reductions in staff pay. And none of these things will help us to address workforce disparities that our community college has been partners with us on fixing for many years…
And while our budget of over $5.6 billion may be more than one particular entity, the way this process went with the College and the way the Council President handled it, forced me to say I initially would not vote for it…
Four years ago, I served as Council President, in an election year, leading us through an equally difficult time where we had to find creative ways to ensure our priorities were met. And I did it in a way that brought my colleagues and stakeholders together collaboratively, inviting their thoughts and feedback, never dictating to them how we would come to consensus. But this year I am remiss that this was not the case.
Council Member Rice read his statement from the dais in this video.
We reprint his full press release below.
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Montgomery Councilmember Rice’s statement on the County’s operating and capital budget agreement
May 17, 2018
ROCKVILLE, Md., May 17, 2018—Montgomery County Councilmember Craig Rice made the following remarks today after the Council reached agreement on the County’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2019 Operating Budget, the FY19 Capital Budget and FY19-24 Capital Improvements Program. The budgets will be formally adopted by the Council on May 24.
The complete text of Councilmember Rice’s remarks:
I unfortunately find myself in a very difficult and torn position, frustrated about the fact that I encountered what I feel was a flawed budget process, something that I’ve never seen in my 8-year tenure here on the Council. Something that encompassed disrespecting my committee’s hard work and well researched and coordinated recommendations for what seems is the gain of a tagline in an election year.
As Chair of the Education Committee, I truly appreciate the County Executive’s support of Montgomery County Public Schools and fully funding their budget. And I also appreciate my Council colleagues’ support to invest in our future by investing in our schools.
And while I celebrate the success of everything in this budget related to MCPS, conversely, I am dismayed at the fact that Montgomery College’s budget was severely cut which could mean even greater increases in tuition than originally proposed, reductions to strategic programs designed to reduce the achievement gap and eliminate disparities, or reductions in staff pay. And none of these things will help us to address workforce disparities that our community college has been partners with us on fixing for many years.
Our Montgomery College is the largest community college in the state and second largest post-secondary institution after the University of Maryland. The county funds 60% of Montgomery College’s budget and we always get tremendous return on that investment. Their collaboration with MCPS through the Early College dual enrollment program allows juniors and seniors to earn an associate degree while completing their high school requirements. The ACES program provides a seamless pathway for high school students to transition to Montgomery College and provides them resources to succeed.
The college, through the insightful leadership of Dr. DeRionne Pollard, continues to create student gateways to success, in addressing the achievement gap, particularly among black and latino males, and providing career tech opportunities such as IT, Construction and Homeland Security. Their budget also asked for needed library enhancements, so students have a place conducive to studying. Montgomery College for many is a destination of choice because they know they can get a world class education at an affordable cost. To think this budget places this mission at risk is unconscionable.
And while our budget of over $5.6 billion may be more than one particular entity, the way this process went with the College and the way the Council President handled it, forced me to say I initially would not vote for it.
By prioritizing resources and fully funding Montgomery County Public Schools (MCPS), we send a strong message that Montgomery County values MCPS and the crucial part education plays in everything we do. Our schools are not the stereotypical K-12 institutions in which teaching and testing are done. Our kids’ educational, social/emotional wellbeing, and basic needs are provided within those four walls. I have had the pleasure of working with Superintendent Jack Smith over the past two years, and his vision and mission to enhance our school system to ensure success for all students is one I whole-heartedly support. Dr. Smith’s mantra of “all means all” is at the heart of everything he does, and through the addition of support personnel, supplemental resources and programming for our kids’ pre-k to job, our schools have given them the opportunity to thrive and succeed.
One of my initiatives, based on my work on the Kirwan Commission, was the continued funding for MCPS to expand Pre-K and broaden Head Start from half-day to full-day, giving our beginning learners the best opportunity possible to start kindergarten prepared to succeed. Other program enhancements include expansion of dual language immersion programs in our elementary schools, adding new career pathways for our high school students in areas of cybersecurity, law enforcement and aviation, and expanding ACES to additional high schools.
A critical component when it comes to safety and security in our schools is our School Resource Officers (SROs). SROs have a unique understanding of school security and how building relationships with students is crucial to mitigating and preventing incidents within our schools. Having one SRO in each high school is an important complement to MCPS’ safety and security protocols, but it is not enough. It’s time to ensure our middle schools are afforded the same attention as their needs are just as great as our high schools. This is why I strongly advocated for funding for an additional ten SROs to be placed in our middle schools. While the council was unable to fund all ten positions this year, I am very pleased that we were able to accommodate an additional three SROs for our middle schools in the coming school year.
Four years ago, I served as Council President, in an election year, leading us through an equally difficult time where we had to find creative ways to ensure our priorities were met. And I did it in a way that brought my colleagues and stakeholders together collaboratively, inviting their thoughts and feedback, never dictating to them how we would come to consensus. But this year I am remiss that this was not the case.
So while I am proud that this year’s budget again highlights K-12 education as a priority in our county, it does not do the same for our community college. But with so many priorities of mine that are addressed in this budget, I cannot turn a blind eye to them and not support the overall budget.
I fought hard to be in this seat to make sure that I was doing good things in our community and prioritizing issues that I knew were important to our constituents. And I strongly feel that our budget should reflect those same priorities.
I want to thank Montgomery College and Montgomery County Public Schools for your ongoing partnership and look forward to working with you in the future.
# # #
By Adam Pagnucco.
County Executive Ike Leggett is threatening to veto a line item in the Capital Budget just passed by the County Council related to his proposed stormwater reforms. While the county’s charter grants the Executive line item veto power, we don’t recall the last time this was actually used. He also expressed displeasure that the council added $14 million of new spending on top of his proposed budget.
We will have more to say about this, but for now, we reprint the Executive’s press release below.
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Statement by County Executive Ike Leggett on the Council Announcement of a Tentative FY19 County Operating Budget
May 17, 2018
“I appreciate the hard work and leadership the Council demonstrated on the FY 19 Operating Budget. The Council approved virtually all of what was initially recommended, including full funding for Montgomery County Public Schools — our shared top priority.
“I am concerned, however, that the Council has increased ongoing expenditures by $14 million over and above my recommended budget.
“In addition, by a 5 to 4 majority, the Council opposed the reform of our stormwater management construction program – a decision that threatens our ability to meet important environmental goals and will certainly delay projects designed to meet our State-mandated MS4 permit — I intend to veto this line item in the Capital Budget.
“We need to make this program more efficient and cost-effective. And we need to be responsive to County taxpayers who – without changes – will be paying more in stormwater management charges to get less. The status quo is unacceptable.”
# # #
By Adam Pagnucco.
The Washington Post has endorsed the following candidates for County Council and Board of Education.
Council At-Large: Gabe Albornoz, Marilyn Balcombe, Evan Glass, Hans Riemer
Council District 1: Andrew Friedson
Council District 2: Craig Rice
Council District 3: Sidney Katz
Council District 4: Nancy Navarro
Council District 5: Tom Hucker
Board of Education At-Large: Julie Reiley
Board of Education District 3: Pat O’Neill
Read their endorsements here.
By Adam Pagnucco.
Update: Council District 5 candidate Kevin Harris has also filed for matching funds on May 15, claiming $12,400 in qualifying contributions from 176 in-county residents.
Original Post: Council District 1 candidate Jim McGee filed for public matching funds on May 15. His filing claims 157 qualifying contributors and $36,580 in qualifying contributions, above the respective thresholds for a district race of 125 and $10,000. Two other District 1 candidates have qualified for matching funds, including Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez and Reggie Oldak, who has already applied for the maximum amount ($125,000) available under the program.
On Monday, we wrote that county law stated that the qualifying period for matching funds ended 45 days before the primary, which this year fell on Saturday, May 12. That is true. But at the time, we did not know that the State Board of Elections had allowed candidates to file as late as May 15 with only qualifying contributions received by May 12 eligible for matching funds. A reader brought that to our attention and we updated the post. But we are gonna own this one: we screwed up. Your author apologizes to Jim McGee and Seventh State readers.
Then there is Robin Ficker, who is running for Executive in the public financing program. Ficker registered his public account on 2/8/17 and so far has not qualified for matching funds. (The other Executive candidates in public financing – Marc Elrich, George Leventhal and Rose Krasnow – qualified some time ago.) Ficker told Bethesda Magazine that he was unaware that he was subject to the 45-day qualifying period because he has no primary opponent. In order to qualify for matching funds, Executive candidates need 500 contributions from individuals living in the county totaling at least $40,000. Ficker then sent an application for matching funds on May 15 but it asked for… zero dollars.
Can anyone figure this out for us? Because we admit it – we can’t!
By Adam Pagnucco.
Remember the county’s $120 million budget shortfall? While up to half of it may have been caused by tax planning by rich people, the rest was in broad shortfalls across a range of taxes. The County Council approved a FY18 savings plan of $53 million in January, but what happened to the rest of the shortfall? Nothing was published in the press. In fact, the council did cut another $62 million last month and, it seems, no one noticed.
What happened?
One of the county’s long-term obligations is money it owes for retiree health benefits, also known as other post-employment benefits (OPEB). These benefits are becoming rare in the private sector but they are still common in state and local governments. In 2008, the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) told state and local governments that they had to begin accounting for OPEB and prefunding it in the same way that they do for pension benefits. In other words, each government would have to publish a funding ratio and start saving for future benefits rather than simply paying as they went. MoCo had a plan to ramp up OPEB prefunding, but the Great Recession hit and the county couldn’t contribute towards OPEB for a couple years. Since then, the county has socked away $797 million to meet future OPEB benefits.
That sounds like a lot of money, but the county’s actuarial liability for OPEB is currently calculated at $3.3 billion, meaning that its funding ratio is 24%. That would be terrible for a pension plan – consider that the county’s pension plan is currently 92% funded. But 24% is actually decent for an OPEB plan considering that state and local governments have only been prefunding them for ten years. The State of Maryland’s OPEB plan was just 3% funded in 2015 and MoCo’s ratio was better than 38 states. Even so, the county has a lot of work to do to get its funding ratio up and it makes millions in contributions every year to get there.
In FY18, the county had budgeted $122 million for OPEB contributions. But the county had a problem: less than half of its FY18 shortfall of $120 million had been eliminated. As late April came around and the FY19 budget process was underway, the County Executive and the County Council had a choice. They could cut over $60 million in current year spending two months out from the primary election. Or they could find the money somewhere else.
You guessed it – in a resolution introduced and adopted on the same day, April 24, the council unanimously cut $62 million from the county’s FY18 OPEB contribution. This fiscal year’s spending on services won’t take another cut, which is great news for incumbents running for reelection or higher office. And as Bethesda Magazine reported, the council has proposed adding up to $21.6 million more to next year’s budget and has so far identified just $1.6 million in offsetting spending cuts. How do you think they will make up the difference?
The County Council did not send out a press release headlining the diversion of $62 million of retiree health contributions to support general spending on April 24. It was buried in a press release spotlighting a resolution on equity data. As a result, the press totally missed it.
Now look, folks. The county is good at saving money. They are setting aside close to 10% of revenues as reserves, an important reform adopted during the Great Recession that helped save the county’s AAA bond rating. The pension fund is in excellent condition at 92% funding. And as stated above, the county has done a better job at prefunding retiree health benefits than most other places.
But grabbing retiree health contributions and using them for general spending is something that is normally done in a recession when the alternative is layoffs. That’s what happened a decade ago and it was justified considering the financial trouble the county was facing. Now, despite huge evidence to the contrary, county leaders are telling us that the economy is in great shape. The Council President told Kojo Nnamdi a few days ago that we have “a very strong economy” and “this is a good time in Montgomery County.” Well, if the economy is so great, then why redirect $62 million of retiree health money to prop up this year’s budget?
And if we are diverting retiree health money now when times are supposedly good, what will happen when the next recession comes?
By Adam Pagnucco.
Council Member Marc Elrich, who is running for County Executive, has posted a guest blog denying that he is a socialist. Since he made that claim in a rebuttal to our writings, it is only fair that your author responds. Why have we said that he is a socialist? It’s because we have an unimpeachable source who says he has been a socialist organization member for decades. That source’s name is…
Marc Elrich.
In 2013, Bethesda Magazine asked Elrich flat out whether he is a socialist.
Elrich declines to say whether he considers himself a socialist. “It’s irrelevant,” he says. “…I was in the business world. I appreciate how things are done. I’m not doing anything that will undo the business world or bring socialism to Montgomery County.”
If he is not a socialist, why not say so?
Elrich was more forthcoming with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), who describe themselves on their website as “the largest socialist organization in the United States.” In his completed questionnaire for DSA, Elrich answered as follows to their questions on his membership and identification as a socialist.
Why are you soliciting Metro DC DSA’s endorsement for this office?
I am a member and have been impressed with Metro DC DSA’s work. A lot of my positions and values align closely with the positions and values of the organization. The organization has also been very effective recently in encouraging voter turnout and helping tenants and is gaining a reputation as a real force in progressive politics.
Do you identify as a democratic socialist?
Democratic socialism doesn’t have a hard and fast definition; I see it as a philosophy that envisions a more democratic society. I believe in democracy in both the political and economic spheres.
What does socialism mean now? We are living in the 21st century, and simply reducing political analysis to a debate between 18th century capitalism and 19th century Marxism doesn’t help us find solutions. There are ideas that have worked and have moved society forward that have evolved from both perspectives, as well as things that haven’t turned out so well from both. So a lot of the ideals of democratic socialism contribute to my thinking, but they don’t entirely define my thinking.
Are you a member of Democratic Socialists of America? If so, when did you join?
Yes; I joined many decades ago and was involved in both the Democratic Socialist Organizing Committee (DSOC) and New America Movement (NAM) stages of the organization.
It’s worth noting the history of the two organizations he cited in his response. The Democratic Socialist Organizing Committee was founded by socialist leader Michael Harrington, who personally identified with socialists like Eugene Debs and Norman Thomas but preached advocating for a socialist agenda inside the Democratic Party. The New American Movement was an openly socialist group. According to its Wikipedia entry:
In its early years, NAM shared much of the political framework of the New Communist Movement, but rejected the strategy of building a “vanguard party”, a position prominent NAM members defended in a debate in the pages of The Guardian. The organization was built around local groups called “chapters,” which emphasized Marxist study, discussion of contemporary issues, support of local labor actions, and work in the community to raise awareness.
These two socialist organizations combined to form DSA in 1982.
The Democratic Socialists of America don’t hide the fact that they are socialists. They say it openly on their website.
Now let’s be fair. Today’s American socialists have come a loooooong way since dialectical materialism and the dictatorship of the proletariat. Karl Marx wouldn’t recognize them as socialists. Their platform is much closer to contemporary progressivism than to nineteenth century Marxism. And like DSA’s co-founder, Michael Harrington, their agenda is not actual revolution but to join the Democratic Party and push it as far to the left as possible. That’s a reasonable description of Marc Elrich’s three decades in public office and a big reason why he is so admired by many Montgomery County progressives. In fact, if Elrich were to say in public that he has been a socialist organization member for decades, many of his supporters would probably love it and work even harder for him!
Elrich told Seventh State, “I don’t have a socialist agenda that I’m trying to bring here.” Well, maybe. A genuinely Marxist policy agenda would be precluded by federal and state law. But Elrich’s socialist beliefs have manifested themselves at least twice during his time as a County Council Member.
First, he is arguably the strongest supporter of an indisputably socialist institution: the county’s liquor monopoly. The notion that a county government should have a monopoly on the wholesale distribution of alcohol is about as socialist as one can get. Not only is Elrich one of the monopoly’s biggest defenders – he actually accused restaurant owners who wanted freedom from it of “whining” and wanting to “steal everything.” That got him banned from four restaurants that had protested the monopoly. As a County Executive candidate, he promises to increase the monopoly’s sales, thereby expanding the reach of MoCo’s most prominent socialist institution.
Second, Elrich once recruited the socialist government of Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez to participate in providing county services. In 2007, the Washington Post reported:
Montgomery County Council member Marc Elrich (D-At Large) invited Venezuela’s ambassador this month to meet community leaders and possibly get involved in funding local social programs, only to find himself yesterday at the center of a heated international political debate…
The visit, planned for Oct. 23, was conceived after Elrich met a representative from the embassy at a District rally to support domestic workers. They talked about poverty and the health-care needs of the county, and Elrich said the diplomat expressed interest in learning more about Montgomery’s community services.
In an e-mail to more than a dozen community leaders Tuesday, including to Leggett’s directors for economic development and health and human services, a legislative aide to Elrich described the visit as part of a “project currently underway to promote future socio-economic partnerships for the development of a common goal to address community needs.”
“The first step toward this goal is to convene a meeting to introduce the Ambassador” to the county and “to begin a dialogue on how to productively address those needs,” the e-mail said…
Talk of a visit was so potentially explosive that [County Executive Ike] Leggett issued a strongly worded statement from Israel. “We do not want to be involved in this visit. We are not involved with this visit,” he said. “Montgomery County can take care of its own problems. Thank you. No thank you.”
The visit did not happen and Elrich’s envisioned cooperation between the county and a socialist foreign government fell through.
Look folks, we respect Marc Elrich for having deeply held principles that have guided his political philosophy for many years. Some politicians have no principles of any kind. Elrich has deployed his on behalf of progressive causes like his signature minimum wage bills. His supporters love him for that, and from their perspective, rightly so. We have found him to be a creative, intelligent and thought-provoking Council Member. And he deserves massive credit for authoring the county’s proposed Bus Rapid Transit system ten years ago. But Elrich has told “the largest socialist organization in the United States” that he is a member who “joined many decades ago.” He put that in writing.
So why not just admit it to the rest of us?
Disclosure: the author wrote this in reply to Marc Elrich’s guest blog and supports Roger Berliner for Executive.
By Adam Pagnucco.
Update: Even though the deadline is May 12, the State Board of Elections said on March 30 that they will allow a candidate to file for matching funds as late as tomorrow (May 15) provided that all qualifying contributions were received by May 12. We will see if any of the above candidates file reports by tomorrow night.
Original Post: According to Montgomery County’s public campaign financing law, candidates have until 45 days before the primary election to qualify for public matching funds. Since the primary is on June 26, the qualifying period ended on Saturday, May 12. According to filings with the State Board of Elections, the following candidates did not qualify for matching funds by then and will not be receiving them.
Rosemary Arkoian – At-Large
Richard Banach – District 1
Craig Carozza-Caviness – At-Large
Bill Cook – District 1
Robin Ficker – County Executive
Lorna Phillips Forde – At-Large
Richard Gottfried – At-Large
Neil Greenberger – At-Large
Kevin Harris – District 5
Kenge Malikidogo-Fludd – District 5
Jim McGee – District 1
Melissa McKenna – At-Large
Darwin Romero – At-Large
In addition, Bethesda Magazine reported that these candidates were ruled ineligible for matching funds because their submissions to the State Board of Elections did not meet the thresholds of either in-county contributors or in-county money received to qualify.
Shruti Bhatnagar – At-Large
Loretta Garcia – At-Large
Paul Geller – At-Large
Michele Riley – At-Large
Tim Willard – At-Large
These eighteen candidates represent almost half of the thirty-eight active candidates in public financing. Starved of resources and unable to get their messages out, none of them will be elected.
By Adam Pagnucco.
The Washington Post’s endorsement of businessman David Blair hit like a grenade this past weekend, blowing up the County Executive race. What does it mean?
First, in reading the language of the Post’s endorsement, we are struck by how closely their views on the challenges facing the county resemble our own. The majority of these opening three paragraphs mirror what we have been writing about the county economy for years.
These seem like boom times in Montgomery County, the mainly rich suburb that has absorbed roughly 100,000 new residents since 2010 to a population now approaching 1.1 million. Amazon (whose CEO, Jeffrey P. Bezos, owns The Post) has shortlisted the county for its second corporate headquarters; construction cranes tower over Bethesda and Silver Spring; and the public school system, one of the nation’s largest, includes some of the best high schools anywhere.
That’s why it’s easy to overlook some ominous signs of fiscal and economic trouble ahead. A burgeoning population of retirees, immigrants and other less affluent residents has strained local resources and budgets. Those moving into the county tend to be poorer than those leaving. The chasm between economically prosperous pockets (such as the ones dominated by cranes) and stagnant ones is widening. Most worrying, business and job growth are anemic.
That’s the unsettling backdrop for the June 26 Democratic primary, which is likely to determine who will run the county for the next four years. County Executive Isiah Leggett, a deft and capable manager, is retiring after 12 years in the job (and no Republican has won an election in Montgomery since 2002). The central question is which of the candidates for county executive is most capable of juicing a sluggish commercial environment — the only way to broaden the local tax base so it can sustain the county’s excellent schools and progressive services.
The Post framed the election’s central question correctly. And their policy view, clearly established in the language above, will no doubt influence their choices for County Council. That said, they do not share your author’s view that governing experience is useful for addressing these challenges. So be it.
The Post has a pretty good record in top-tier MoCo Democratic primaries. They endorsed Chris Van Hollen (CD-8) in 2002, Ike Leggett (County Executive) in 2006 and 2014 and John Delaney (CD-6) in 2012. They also endorsed Kathleen Matthews (CD-8) in 2016, who finished third.
Even so, the Post is not a king-maker; one of the good things about MoCo politics is that we have no king-makers here. But their endorsement matters, especially when five candidates are vying to be the chief rival for Marc Elrich. Consider what Roger Berliner (your author’s choice), Bill Frick or Rose Krasnow would have said if they had gotten the Post endorsement. If Berliner had received it, he would have told non-Elrich voters, “I am the one who combines the Sierra Club, moderates, District 1 voters and now the Post. I’m the alternative to Elrich.” Frick would have said something similar while substituting realtors for the Sierra Club. If Krasnow had received it, she would have said, “I am the only woman in a primary in which sixty percent of voters will be women and now I have the Post. I’m the alternative to Elrich.” None of these things can be said now. All three lose the opportunity to leverage the Post endorsement to expand outside their geographic bases.
It is sometimes said that Elrich has a ceiling. Some voters will find a decades-long socialist who equates transit-oriented development with ethnic cleansing and favors rent control unappealing. But Blair has a ceiling too. That was expressed by a commenter on Seventh State’s Facebook page who wrote, “I don’t want a businessman political newcomer who is trying to buy the election.” Fair or not, that is a common sentiment among Democratic activists, and those who feel this way are not persuadable on this point. Blair can send them thirty mailers and they won’t budge. How many rank-and-file voters have this view? David Trone, who shares this handicap, received 22% of MoCo’s vote in the 2016 Congressional District 8 race. That’s an imperfect analogy because CD8 omits some relatively moderate areas in MoCo’s Upcounty and Trone was not talking about the unpopular nine percent property tax hike in his campaign. Still, Blair will need more than 22% to win.
Besides Blair, the other big winner from the Post’s endorsement is Elrich. Elrich has been crusading against rival candidates who have been supported by wealthy businessmen for years; now he gets an ACTUAL wealthy businessman as perhaps his chief opponent. Elrich is no doubt rubbing his hands together in glee as his progressive hordes gird for battle against plutocracy. His field coordinator must be dizzy with joy.
Both the Elrich and Blair campaigns need to consider the following question. Which group is larger in the Democratic primary electorate: the people who believe that taxes have gone up but their service quality has not or the people in Elrich’s base? If the former outnumber the latter – not an impossible prospect considering that a majority of Democrats voted for term limits two years ago – then maybe an outsider has a shot. It would be totally unprecedented given that every prior MoCo Executive has had governing experience before assuming office. But Robin Ficker winning a charter amendment vote by forty points was also unprecedented.
Thanks to the Post, a wild election has gotten a little wilder. There are only forty-three days to go before this story reaches its momentous conclusion!
