Monthly Archives: July 2022

Peter Franchot

Major Franchot Supporter’s Racist Post

Holding candidates responsible for every supporter’s actions is generally an unwise notion. But for someone as prominent in Peter Franchot’s political life as Md. Washington Minority Companies Association President Wayne Frazier, Sr. , I’ll make an exception. Frazier put up this offensive post:

Suffice it to say that the people of Baltimore City are not animals.

Frazier commented that the post was “not meant to be funny, but impactful!” and “It is what we become.” SMH.

Wes Moore’s team has pounced, demanding the Franchot denounce this post by Frazier, who is scheduled to host an event for Franchot tomorrow. While Moore got on it first, I’m confident that Tom Perez, Doug Gansler and other candidates aren’t fans either.

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County Government, maps, redistricting

New County Council District Maps

This post is a collection of the new councilmanic district maps from around Maryland. It is an updated version of one of the most popular posts on Seventh State with the 2010s maps. I have done my best to make sure that they are the new rather the old districts. I have been unable to locate the new Baltimore City, Garrett County, and Talbot County Council maps.

If you know where I can find them or if any of the maps here are incorrect, please let me know. It’s often hard to be completely sure which proposed maps have been adopted. Additionally, some of the new maps are exceedingly similar to the old ones. My hope is to put up a complete and corrected post in the future.

The maps here are organized by the type of electoral system used by the county starting with (1) elected at-large with district residency requirements followed by (2) elected entirely from districts, and (3) elected by a mixture of districts and at-large. Counties are listed alphabetically within each category.

Allegany, Caroline, Kent and Washington Counties elect their entire county commissions at large.

ALL ELECTED AT-LARGE WITH A RESIDENCY REQUIREMENT

Calvert County: Five commissioners with two with no residency requirement and three from districts.

Charles County: Five commissioners. There is no residency requirement for the commission president with four additional commissioners elected from districts.

Cecil County: Five commissioners with staggered terms.

Any changes from the previous map appear very small.

Garrett: Three commissioners. No map available.

Queen Anne’s: Five commissioners. There is no residency requirement for one commissioner with four additional commissioners elected from districts.

St. Mary’s: Five commissioners. There is no residency requirement for the commission president with four additional commissioners elected from districts.

Talbot: Five councilmembers. No map available.

ALL ELECTED FROM DISTRICTS

Anne Arundel: Seven councilmembers.

Baltimore County: Seven councilmembers.

This map was the subject of voting rights litigation over the county’s failure to create a second majority-black district.

Carroll County: five commissioners.

Dorchester County: five councilmembers.

The changes from the previous map, if any, appear small.

Howard County: five councilmembers.

Prince George’s: nine councilmembers.

Somerset County: five commissioners.

Worcester County: seven commissioners.

Any changes appear very small. Please let me know if this is not the current map for the county.

MIXED

Baltimore City: 15 councilmembers with 14 elected from districts and the council president at-large. No map available.

Frederick County: five councilmembers elected from districts and two elected at-large.

Harford County: six councilmembers elected from districts and the council president elected at-large.

Montgomery County: seven councilmembers elected from districts and four elected at-large.

This map adds two new districts over the previous version, increasing the size of the council from nine to eleven.

Wicomico County: five councilmembers elected from districts and two elected at-large.

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David Blair, polls

Did I Get It Wrong on the Blair Poll?

Normally, when people feel I got something wrong in a post, I hear from them very quickly. So I was a little surprised when Aaron Kraut, the David Blair’s Communications Director, contacted me to say that I got it wrong in yesterday’s post on the poll recently released by Blair.

According to Aaron Kraut, “The topline poll question cited in our press release was asked before any further questions.” This would mean that the polling results were not skewed by the sorts of priming and message testing that occurred during the poll.

I asked to see the polling results because that, after all, would quickly settle the matter. To me, as I said in the original post, it doesn’t make much sense to still be message testing at this point. Blair’s poll doesn’t jibe with a recent independent poll by Data for Progress.

The Blair campaign won’t share their polling data, feeling that they shouldn’t have to prove that something is false. They have a point and that’s why I am writing this post. The poll was done by a highly reputable polling firm. The Blair campaign is quite emphatic that the numbers they presented were the topline and not the post-message testing numbers.

As Hans Riemer’s campaign pointed out, the numbers presented by candidates often skew in their direction if only because candidates tend not to release unfavorable polls. Campaigns release information selectively, as the Blair campaign did, but everyone knows that.

More generally, doing good polling is getting more difficult. As is often said, the only poll that matters is the one at the ballot box.

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2022 Demcratic Primary, Montgomery County Council

Electronic Ballot Format Criticized

One of the hotter races this year in Montgomery County is the race for the four at-large seats. Incumbents Gabe Albornoz, Evan Glass and Will Jawando are seeking reelection. Incumbent Tom Hucker is looking to jump from his district seat to an at-large seat. Newcomers include Brandy Brooks, Dana Gassaway, Scott Goldberg and Gaithersburg Councilmember Laurie-Anne Sayles.

But the electronic ballot divides the candidates on two pages with only Sayles appearing on page 2. As you can guess from my listing of the candidates above, she drew the short straw due to her having the last name latest in the alphabet.

As we all learned in the 2000 election, ballot design can influence outcomes in close contests. It disadvantages Sayles to be on the second page. I don’t know what the Montgomery County Board of Elections can do to address this problem at this point.

In general, ballot order can shape outcomes. Candidates with names ending in A-L do better, on average, than candidates with names ending in M-Z for this reason. In polling, respondents are most likely to give the first or last choice as their answer.

One way to address these biases is to randomize candidate order. Pollsters purposefully scramble the choices to avoid these sort of biases. In statewide contests, California attempts to minimize the problem by having a different ballot order in each county.

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District 15, Saqib Ali

Saqib Ali’s Campaign Roiled by Abuse Allegations

Former Del. Saqib Ali is trying to regain a seat in the House of Delegates in District 15. He previously represented District 39 but left after one term to run unsuccessfully for Senate in 2010. This year, Ali’s well-funded campaign has been roiled by severe domestic problems.

Ali’s wife filed a petition for protection from domestic violence on May 24th. This was dismissed with the agreed upon condition that Saqib Ali attend anger management:

Mr. Ali will be evaluated by Dr. Fred Oeltjen with Maryland Counseling Center for anger management. Mr. Ali will complete anger management. The anger management program shall be recommended by Dr. Fred Oeltjen.

However, matters did not resolve. In a preliminary divorce complaint, Ms. Ali alleged:

On June 22, 2022, upon return to the marital home he once again became violent toward the parties’ older minor child, necessitating the Plaintiff [Ms. Ali] and the minor child to flee the marital home. On June 24, 2022, Plaintiff filed another Petition from Domestic Violence in the Circuit Court of Montgomery County on behalf of the minor child.

Defendant’s [Saqib Ali’s] ongoing abusive behavior toward Plaintiff and the minor children cause Plaintiff to have grave concerns over the mental stability of Defendant and his ability to be an effective and safe parent of the parties’ minor children.

Saqib Ali denied the allegations and tried to spin this as something that “sadly, a lot of people have been through” as part of a divorce. In texts available in public documents, he went further, essentially claiming that his wife is an unfit parent and a danger to at least one of his children.

Except that not only has he consented to anger management training, he also agreed on July 1 to give up custody of his kids for a full year as part of a consent final protective order:

Petitioner is awarded interim physical and legal custody of the minor children.

Respondent shall have non-overnight access with the children as agreed upon by the parties.

[T]his Order shall stay in full force and effect for one (1) year or until further Order of Court or written agreement of the parties.

This agreement makes me doubt Saqib Ali’s claims. Parents who genuinely believe that the other parent is unfit and a danger to their kids don’t normally give up custody but fight to keep them, as his wife did. Even a parent who believes the other parent is capable usually shares custody. Instead, he has given up not just custody but also the right to overnight visits. You do the math.

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David Blair, Montgomery County Executive, polls

Blair’s Bad Poll

David Blair recently trumpeted poll results produced by his campaign that claim he trails incumbent County Executive Marc Elrich by only a single point. They oddly left Hans Riemer out of the graphic in the blast email and press release, which present Elrich at 29%, Blair at 28% with 23% undecided. The poll was conducted by a highly reputable pollster.

Councilmember Hans Riemer’s campaign has repurposed this poll that has him in third place with 20%. They claim the poll shows Elrich falling but discount the better numbers for Blair because it came from his campaign. Their graphic excludes Blair just like Blair’s leaves out Riemer.

Except that the poll really show Blair’s weakness.

The poll was taken only after voters were primed with a bunch of messaging questions. Voters were asked questions related to Blair’s endorsement by the Washington Post and the Sierra Club combined with standard messaging. Blair’s campaign also asked negative questions about Elrich and Riemer’s longevity in office combined with a positive spin for Blair.

Priming can have large effects on poll outcomes. Beyond heavily skewing the information presented to voters, people like to please and are more likely to give an answer if they think it will make the interviewer happy. Yet even after all this priming designed to drive Blair’s numbers up and Elrich and Riemer’s down, Blair still trailed Elrich.

This message-testing poll suggests a few conclusions quite opposite from those presented by Blair as well as Riemer to a lesser extent.

First, Elrich almost certainly has a lead and quite possibly a strong one. If the Blair campaign had polling results that were at all good for him without priming questions, they would show them to us and even share the details.

These results instead suggest that Blair’s campaign is stalling despite his millions in spending. Blair’s omnipresence on television may not matter much when fewer people see the advertisements because they stream or scroll past commercials on their DVR. I have literally seen one Blair ad while streaming a YouTube video.

Second, Riemer is running uncomfortably well from the Blair campaign’s perspective. Just as the poll depresses Elrich’s numbers, it does the same to Riemer. Dropping Riemer from their graphic was hardly accidental. Blair is trying to convince people that it is a two-person race with Riemer faring poorly.

This is the logical purpose of the poll as no campaign is message testing at this late date. Campaigns have already settled on their plan and focused on execution. Other recent polls suggest that Blair and Riemer are statistically tied. My view is that Riemer has been running the best campaign of the three candidates, which would help explain why he hasn’t fallen behind Blair despite expectations and Blair’s very large wallet.

It doesn’t hurt that there are hundreds of thousands of dollars in expenditures funded by California donors on Riemer’s behalf separate from the campaign. (UPDATE: This is an anti-Elrich group that helps both Riemer and Blair.) Unlike four years ago, Riemer is the only councilmember challenging Elrich. Of course, Riemer’s campaign can’t have it both ways—the numbers understate Elrich’s support as well as his own.

Rather than convincing me that Blair is coming on strong and positioned well in the final weeks, this poll confirms his weakness.

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Peter Franchot

Foxwell Slams Franchot

Len Foxwell’s Facebook posts about his former boss and gubernatorial candidate, Comptroller Peter Franchot, have the marks of a kamikaze pilot rather than that of highly skilled political operative trying to rebuild his career after a major stumble.

Almost the least of these attacks was his takedown of a Franchot ad:

Earlier, Foxwell boosted Jill Kamenetz’s devastating video blasting Franchot’s behavior in office and at her husband’s funeral:

But most incredible was his exchange in the comments with Wayne Frazier in which he accuses Frazier of “trying to shake down vendors competing for government contracts” and writes “I have all the receipts.” He later replies: “My prediction is that if Peter wins, you will both end up getting yourselves indicted for extortion.” When asked for evidence that Franchot “screwed taxpayers”, Foxwell replied “Stay tuned.”

This is a stunning turnabout for Foxwell, who was Franchot’s biggest booster right up until his termination.

Regarded by many as Franchot’s political Svengali, Foxwell unquestionably played a critical role in Franchot’s office. First elected as a left-liberal, Franchot rebranded himself as a consumer advocate fighting for the little guy during Foxwell’s tenure as his chief of staff.

This smart positioning is a sweet spot for Democrats that counters an increasingly educated elite stereotype. It has echoes of popular Gov. William Donald Schaefer’s bread-and-butter focus, such as his “Reach the Beach” campaign resulting in new bridges and bypasses that cut beach traffic.

Positioning himself as a public ally of a Republican governor may seem more questionable but remember that Gov. Larry Hogan remains more popular than not with Democrats. While still risky, so many Democrats are fighting for the progressive label that it leaves room in the primary for Franchot. One can’t help but wonder where Franchot might be now with more of Foxwell’s help.

Though understandable from a personal perspective, Foxwell’s attacks make little professional sense, being as likely to inflict wounds on himself as Franchot. Politicians and others surely must hesitate before hiring someone who turned publicly on his former boss, wondering if he might do the same to them. If Franchot was so awful and corrupt, why did Foxwell boost him relentlessly? It makes Foxwell appear hopelessly cynical and unscrupulous, tainting himself as well as Franchot.

Franchot and Foxwell’s detractors, many of whom work at the General Assembly and clashed with both, will enjoy watching.

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2022 Demcratic Primary, Hans Riemer, Montgomery County Executive

Executive Race Lane 3: Needs a Job

Councilmember Hans Riemer (D-At Large) is being turfed out of office by term limits. Like Marc Elrich four years ago, Riemer was the top vote getter in the previous election’s Democratic at-large council primary. Riemer’s achievement perhaps lacks some the luster since he was the only incumbent. But it doesn’t hurt.

Running for County Executive doesn’t appear to have been Riemer’s preferred path. When the Council was debating its reconfiguration in response to the initiative to eliminate the four at-large seats and move to all districts, Riemer proposed creating a separately elected Council President. The new office could likely evade the Council term limits and provide the well-known incumbent with another opportunity.

This didn’t pass the laugh test with his colleagues. The Council currently elects its President annually with the job rotating among the members. Why on earth would the rest of the Council want to give up the chance of being Council President to put Riemer in charge? I suppose one can admire Riemer’s chutzpah if not his political sense.

Until recently, Riemer was the upbeat urbanist warrior on the Council. That’s changed. Riemer has become stridently negative with his campaign marked by nearly incessant attacks on both incumbent County Executive Marc Elrich along with wealthy businessman David Blair.

Riemer has raised a tremendous amount of money through the public financing system. While it’s hard to compete with David Blair’s wallet or the developer PAC spending $500,000 on his behalf, it is still impressive. My sense is that his team has built a strong campaign.

Notwithstanding his strong fundraising and high name recognition, Riemer faces challenges. His urbanist base is split with David Blair. Some of his natural supporters find Blair’s past run and deep pockets a stronger bet than Riemer’s lengthy experience. Despite their revulsion towards Trump, Democrats seem happy to elect wealthy businessmen to office (e.g. David Trone and John Delaney), including many in Riemer’s crowd.

Riemer’s reputation among political observers who inform other voters and influencers also doesn’t help. In contrast to, say, Nancy Floreen, many see Riemer as a well-meaning guy but not a political or policy heavyweight. Though a fervent believer in his own proposals, he often doesn’t seem to know his brief and appears out of depth in answering questions.

Riemer’s campaign conversion on privatizing alcohol sales tends to confirm this view. After having previously headed the MoCo Nightlife Commission and years of telling us is that all we needed is to be able to buy craft beers, he has only now connected the dots and discovered that the alcohol monopoly is a problem.

When one of Riemer’s (very nice) campaign volunteers knocked on my door, I was amused to be handed a walk piece claiming that Riemer got the Purple Line done. I guess he has a different definition of “done” than I do. If we’re lucky, the light rail will be up and running around the time the next County Executive finishes his term complete with massive cost overruns. Though a shinier object, the unfinished Purple Line contrasts uneasily with Elrich’s ability to get the Flash BRT and up and running faster at a far lower cost.

Riemer and Elrich have never been BFFs and Riemer has dogged the Elrich administration relentlessly. But even in quieter times, councilmembers have trouble getting much attention from the public. Notwithstanding Riemer’s strong criticism of Elrich’s handling of the pandemic, and that many of the necessary choices were bound to alienate blocs of voters, voters view Elrich’s handling of it favorability to the chagrin of detractors.

Though the Washington Post had some kind words for Riemer (and harsh ones for Elrich), their endorsement of Blair helps confirm Riemer’s third-place status. Riemer has done his best to distinguish himself from both Elrich and Blair and run better than expectations. Still, it will be a real surprise if he wins the primary.

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