Hogan by the Numbers

The following chart shows the share of the vote received by Gov. Larry Hogan in each county as well as the swing from 2014:

Hogan won majorities in all but four jurisdictions and carried all but the big Democratic three of Montgomery, Baltimore City and Prince George’s. (He won a plurality in Charles.)

In heavily Democratic Montgomery, Hogan won an impressive 44.5%-an unheard of percentage for Republicans in this Democratic heartland. An impressive number of people must have cast ballots both for Larry Hogan and for Marc Elrich.

While Prince George’s was Hogan’s worst county, he made his strongest gains there in picking up an additional 13.4% of the vote, suggesting that the Governor made strong gains in the African-American community. Ben Jealous also lost nearly one-third of the vote in Baltimore City.

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Two More Dem Delegate Pickups

Looks like I missed yet two more pickups by the Democrats in the House of Delegates that weren’t even on the map.

In Baltimore County District 42A, Democrat Michelle Guyton looks set to take the second of two delegate seats. She leads Tim Robinson by 306 votes. Meanwhile, in single-member Frederick County District 3B, Democrat Ken Kerr leads incumbent Republican Del. Bill Folden by 552 votes.

That brings the total number of Democratic pickups to 7 seats.

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Maryland Morning After Roundup

It was a strange night in Maryland. Republican Gov. Larry Hogan didn’t just win reelection. He crushed it, defeating Democrat Ben Jealous by 56.2% to 42.7%. This handsome 13.5% margin is stunning for a Republican in a state that went for Hillary Clinton by 26%.

But Hogan’s rout was a personal, not a partisan, victory. The Governor had no coattails. Heck, he had anti-coattails as Democrats did very well below the top. Democratic AG Frosh and Comptroller Franchot won reelection by enormous margins.

Results Tracker at https://tinyurl.com/ybtwqv4m has the latest for all the key races in the Senate, House of Delegates, and County Exec races. Check it out.

Senate

In the state Senate, Hogan’s “drive for five” seats needed to sustain his veto melted into “we’ll settle for one.”

Democrats narrowly lost two seats. Baltimore County District 42 was expected to fall to Republican Del. Chris West and did, though by a surprisingly small margin. Democratic Sen. Jim Mathias was always defying gravity on the Eastern Shore and finally fell to Republican Del. Mary Beth Carozza.

But Democratic Sen. Kathy Klausmeier held on to beat back a challenge from Republican Del. Christian Miele in Baltimore County District 8. Democrat Sarah Elfreth held open Anne Arundel District 30 by a solid margin. In Frederick, Democratic Sen. Ron Young was thought to be in deep trouble but won reelection by his largest margin by far.

Democrats scored an upset in Howard/Carroll District 9 where Republican Sen. Gail Bates appears to have narrowly lost to Democrat Katie Fry Hester, as Howard’s highly educated electorate turned hard against the Republicans.

We’ll have to wait on absentees and provisionals but the absentees are unlikely to save Bates. While Democrats compose 39% of active registered voters, they comprise 51% of received absentees.

The new Senate will have 32 Democrats and 15 Republicans.

House of Delegates

Last night was about making gains rather than staunching losses for Democrats. Not a single vulnerable Democrat lost. Instead, Democrats are poised to add five seven more seats to their already hefty majority.

In Howard District 9B, incumbent Republican Robert Flanagan lost by 14 points to Democrat Courtney Watson, who returns to office after losing the 2014 county executive race. In Anne Arundel District 30A (Annapolis), Del. Herb McMillan’s retirement allowed Democrat Alice Cain to take the second seat and join seatmate Speaker Michael Busch in the House.

Baltimore County District 8 will now send two instead of one Democrat to the House. Democrat Eric Bromwell won reelection and will be joined by Harry Bhandari. Republican Del. Joe Cluster lost his seat as Del. Joseph Boteler is the sole Republican.

St. Mary’s County District 29B delivered a real surprise as incumbent Republican Del. Deb Rey lost to Democrat Brian Crosby, an army ranger who ran as a moderate or conservative Democrat.

In Harford District 34A (Havre de Grace), it looks like incumbent Democratic Del. Mary Ann Lisanti will be joined by Steve Johnson, who currently leads incumbent Republican Del. Glen Glass by a whopping 25 votes.

This one will go to absentees and provisionals. Among the received 583 absentee ballots, 271 (46%) were sent back by Democrats, 196 (34%) by Republicans and 116 (20%) by unaffiliated or minor party registrants. Among active registered voters, 49% are Democrats compared to 28% who are Republicans.

Unlike in Senate District 9, the party affiliation of received ballots doesn’t send enough of a signal to suggest a clear winner, so we really will have to wait for the final count on this one.

Two more surprise pickups: In Baltimore County District 42A, Democrat Michelle Guyton looks set to take the second of two delegate seats. She leads Tim Robinson by 306 votes. Meanwhile, in single-member Frederick County District 3B, Democrat Ken Kerr leads incumbent Republican Del. Bill Folden by 552 votes.

Assuming the Democratic pickups in 3B, 34A, 42A holds up, the new House of Delegates will have 97 99 Democrats and 44 42 Republicans.

County Races

Democrats had a really good night at the county level. In two upsets, Steuart Pittman took out incumbent County Exec. Steve Schuh in Anne Arundel, and former Councilmember Calvin Ball defeated incumbent Allen Kittleman in Howard. Ball becomes Howard’s first African-American county executive. Democrats also captured a majority on the Anne Arundel Council.

Democratic County Executive Jan Gardner won reelection over Republican Del. Kathy Afzali in Frederick. In Baltimore County, former Del. Johnny Olszewski defeated Al Redmer by 15 points in what had been billed as a nailbiter.

In Montgomery, Councilmember Marc Elrich easily dispatched not just Republican Robin Ficker but wayward Democratic Councilmember Nancy Floreen, who ran as an independent. State’s Attorney Angela Alsobrooks won the county executive race in Prince George’s without opposition. She becomes the first African-American woman county executive in Maryland.

In Dorchester County, Democrats won one more seat on the county council, giving them a majority (as in Anne Arundel noted above). Democrats also won an additional council seat apiece in Talbot and Worcester, as well as two more in Wicomico. That gives Dems a net gain of 6 county legislative seats and a total of 52. Republicans are down to 73 from 79.

Democrats retained control of all of the seats in Charles, Montgomery and Prince George’s, and held their majorities in Baltimore and Howard Counties.

Republicans can take minor solace that they retained their one seat majority in Frederick and continue to hold all the seats in Carroll and Harford Counties. They also continue to rule in the vast majority of Maryland’s many more rural counties on the Eastern Shore, Western Maryland, as well as in Calvert and St, Mary’s.

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Upset in Howard District 9 Looks to Reduce Dem Senate Loss to Just 1 Seat

In my earlier count, I missed a surprise Democratic Senate pickup.

Democrats lost Districts 38 and 42 for the Senate. But they look to have pulled an upset in Howard/Carroll District 8 where Sen. Gail Bates narrowly trails Katie Fry Hester. Right now, Hester leads Bates by 154 votes, or 0.2%.

In District 9, absentee ballots have thus far been received from 1082 Democrats, 693 Republicans, and 348 unaffiliated and minor party registrants. These numbers don’t bode well for Bates. While Democrats compose 39% of active registered voters, they comprise 51% of received absentees.

Yet more evidence that Larry Hogan had no coattails.

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Dems Take Control of Two County Councils

In 2014, Democrats won 46 seats and Republicans 79 among the 23 counties holding elections for their counties and commissions. After tonight’s election, Democrats gained 5 seats to bring their total to 51 seats and drop Republicans to 74 seats.

In Anne Arundel and Dorchester, Democrats gained one seat apiece to take control of these county legislatures. Democrats also gained one seat apiece in Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

Democrats retained all the seats in Charles, Montgomery and Prince George’s. Republicans did the same in Allegany, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil, Garrett, Harford, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s and Washington Counties.

Right now, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the legislatures of 9 of Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions. These include most of the largest including Anne Arundel, Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Charles Howard, Montgomery, and Prince George’s.

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Major Upsets Confirmed in County Exec Races in Anne Arundel and Howard

In Anne Arundel with just two precincts left to be counted, incumbent Rep. County Exec. Steve Schuh is going down to Stuart Pittman, who leads Schuh by 51.8% to 48.1%.

Similarly, in Howard, Democrat Calvin Ball is defeating incumbent Rep. County Exec. Allen Kittleman by 52.3% to 47.6% with all precincts counted.

The Democratic bench for governor in 2022 just got a whole lot stronger with these two as well as Angela Alsobrooks in Prince George’s and Johnny Olszewski in Baltimore County. Republicans bragged that Baltimore County was in the bag but Johnny O trounced them with 57% of the vote.

Democrat Jan Gardner won reelection in Frederick. Republican Barry Glassman easily did the same in Harford. Republican Bob Culver won reelection with a plurality in Wicomico.

Finally, disproving the naysayers, Democratic Marc Elrich just crushed his competition in Montgomery. The message that developers need to be reined in had legs in both Anne Arundel and Montgomery Counties.

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Democrats Keep Veto Proof Senate Majority

Democrats look to have lost two seats in the Maryland Senate as the Republican drive for five Senate seats needed to uphold a veto by Gov. Larry Hogan easily falls short. No real coattails for Hogan as Democrats run for ahead of him in key seats.

In lower Eastern Shore District 38, Democratic Sen. Jim Mathias, the Harry Houdini of Maryland politics, finally met his match in Republican Del. Mary Beth Carozza. As expected, Republican Del. Chris West also gained District 42, but by just 51.8% to 48.2%.

Meanwhile, it looks like Kathy Klausmeier has hung on District 8 by 50.6% to 49.3% for Del. Christian Miele. A huge win for Democrats in a highly vulnerable seat that Hogan won by a mile. Dems even picked up a delegate seat as they were doing it.

In District 30, Dem Sarah Elfreth looks set to defeat former GOP Del. Ron George by a convincing 54-45 margin in a tough seat with a couple of precincts still out.

Dem Sen. Ron Young easily turned back Republican Craig Giangrande’s challenge by 57-43.

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Dems Gain 3 or 4 in House of Delegates

Right now, Democrats have lost no seats in the House of Delegates. Instead, with nearly all votes counted, Dem. Courtney Watson has beat GOP Del. Robert Flanagan by 14% in Howard District 9B. In Anne Arundel District 30, Busch is easily joined by Alice Cain to pickup the second seat.

In District 8, Democrats didn’t just defeat a wave but turned it back to pickup a second seat. Dem. Del. Eric Bromwell will be joined by Harry Bhandari. Meanwhile, incumbent GOP Del. Joe Cluster is going down to fellow Republican Joseph Boteler, III.

The humdinger this year is in Harford District 34A. Incumbent Dem. Del. Mary Ann Lisanti easily won reelection. Right now, Democrat Steve Johnson leads incumbent Republican Del. Glen Glass by 25 votes with all precincts counted. This one isn’t over but color me surprised that Democrats may pickup a fourth seat here.

Bottom line, the Democratic majority will grow by at least three and possibly four seats in the House of Delegates.

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