By Adam Pagnucco.
The Washington Post has endorsed the following candidates for County Council and Board of Education.
Council At-Large: Gabe Albornoz, Marilyn Balcombe, Evan Glass, Hans Riemer
Council District 1: Andrew Friedson
Council District 2: Craig Rice
Council District 3: Sidney Katz
Council District 4: Nancy Navarro
Council District 5: Tom Hucker
Board of Education At-Large: Julie Reiley
Board of Education District 3: Pat O’Neill
Read their endorsements here.
By Adam Pagnucco.
The Montgomery County Education Association (MCEA), which represents MCPS teachers, has endorsed four County Council Members running for reelection: Craig Rice (District 2), Nancy Navarro (District 4), Tom Hucker (District 5) and Hans Riemer (At-Large). The only Council Member running for reelection this year who has not been endorsed by MCEA is Sidney Katz (District 3). The union has previously endorsed Katz’s opponent, Ben Shnider.
Also, MCEA has not endorsed in the County Executive race and may ultimately not do so. That would echo the 2006 Executive primary, when neither Ike Leggett nor Steve Silverman could reach the union’s 58% threshold for support in its Representative Assembly.
We reprint MCEA’s press release below.
*****
For Immediate Release:
May 3, 2018
Contact: Nikki Woodward
Anzer.woodward@gmail.com
MONTGOMERY COUNTY EDUCATION ASSOCIATION ANNOUNCES NEW COUNTY ENDORSEMENTS
The Montgomery County Education Association (MCEA), which represents more than 14,000 classroom teachers, guidance counselors, speech pathologists, media specialists, and other non-supervisory certified educators in the Montgomery County Public Schools system, has endorsed several candidates for elected office in Montgomery County. Endorsed candidates will appear on MCEA’s “Apple Ballot” for the 2018 primary and general elections.
COUNTY COUNCIL AT LARGE:
Hans Riemer (new), Brandy Brooks, Chris Wilhelm, Will Jawando
COUNTY COUNCIL (DISTRICT):
District 1: Ana Sol Gutierrez
District 2: Craig Rice (new)
District 3: Ben Shnider
District 4: Nancy Navarro (new)
District 5 Tom Hucker (new)
BOARD OF EDUCATION AT LARGE:
Karla Silvestre
BOARD OF EDUCATION (DISTRICT):
District 1: Dr. Judith (Judy) Docca
District 2: Patricia (Pat) O’Neill
District 5: Brenda Wolf
MCEA has not yet endorsed a candidate for County Executive for the June primary.
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By Adam Pagnucco.
Let’s start looking at the Council At-Large candidates who have qualified for public matching funds.
Hans Riemer
Riemer, who is finishing his second term, is the only incumbent in the at-large race. His contributions are heavily based in Downtown Silver Spring and Bethesda, the twin poles of Democratic Downcounty politics. He is weaker in places like Rockville and Upcounty. Riemer’s fundraising reflects his smart growth, urban-focused brand and fits the Democratic Crescent nicely. Our hunch is that he will finish first in both Bethesda and Silver Spring en route to his third term in office. (Disclosure: the author was once employed by Riemer.)
Bill Conway
Here is an amazing fact: in a public financing system that includes multi-term incumbents like Riemer, Marc Elrich and George Leventhal, first-time candidate Bill Conway is the number one fundraiser in both Potomac and Chevy Chase. He has also done well in Bethesda. Conway could use more exposure in Silver Spring. If he gets that, he could combine a top two or three performance in Bethesda, Chevy Chase and Potomac with a smattering of votes in other areas and get a ticket to the County Council.
Evan Glass
Second-time candidate Evan Glass, who almost won the District 5 seat four years ago, has a decade-long history of civic leadership in Downtown Silver Spring which is reflected in his fundraising. Glass has raised almost as much money there ($18,573) as has Marc Elrich ($20,763). Glass needs to grow his base, with the logical targets being other areas in District 5 like East County Silver Spring, Burtonsville, Takoma Park and Forest Glen as well as western parts of the Crescent. As it is, he has a good shot to win.
Hoan Dang
Dang is also a second-time candidate, having finished fifth of six candidates in the 2010 District 19 Delegate race despite doing a good job in fundraising. Dang has done pretty well in public financing but he is not dominating anywhere and has not shown a lot of strength in the Crescent. He could use some institutional backing and more support in places like Bethesda and Downtown Silver Spring to increase his chances of victory.
Gabe Albornoz
County Recreation Department Director Gabe Albornoz is by far the leading fundraiser in Kensington, where he has a large base of family and friends. Other than that, he is not among the fundraising leaders in any of the county’s Democratic strongholds. Albornoz has three useful networks: his professional network from his day job, the contacts he has accumulated during his service on the county’s Democratic Central Committee and the supporters of County Executive Ike Leggett, who has endorsed him. Albornoz needs to continue to monetize those networks and get a couple key endorsements, like the Washington Post. If he can do that, he has a path to victory.
We will finish looking at the Council At-Large qualifiers tomorrow.
By Adam Pagnucco.
We have entered the thick of endorsement season and a big one just came out: a partial decision by MCEA, holder of the mighty Apple Ballot. We have updated our institutional endorsement matrix and offer some comments below.
First, a note. Many of the listed endorsing organizations have not finished their processes and may be announcing more decisions in the future. Other important organizations (like the Washington Post, the Realtors and the Volunteer Fire Fighters) have not endorsed yet at all. So this list is a work in progress.
That said, here are a few impressions.
Senator Roger Manno, who might be the most pro-union member of the entire General Assembly, is sweeping labor endorsements in his run for Congress District 6. How far will that take him against Delegate Aruna Miller and Total Wine co-owner David Trone?
Council Member Marc Elrich, who is running for Executive, has put together an impressive string of progressive endorsements and he will be getting more of them. He is definitely the favored Executive candidate of the left.
Ben Shnider, who is challenging District 3 County Council candidate Sidney Katz, has also become a darling of the left. Will that be enough to take out Katz, who has been the most prominent politician in Gaithersburg for decades? We will have an opinion on that in the near future.
Will Jawando, who is running for Council At-Large, has had a great six weeks. He is the only non-incumbent who has assembled four influential institutional endorsements, including the Apple. (Chris Wilhelm has three and Danielle Meitiv and Brandy Brooks have two each.) Combine that with Jawando’s fundraising success, electoral experience and natural charisma and he is looking strong right now.
The good news for Delegate Jeff Waldstreicher, who is running for the District 18 Senate seat being vacated by Rich Madaleno, is that he is dominating the institutional endorsements over Dana Beyer and Michelle Carhart. The bad news is that his dispute with House candidate Helga Luest is escalating. Women are 60% of MoCo Democrats and this is a particularly bad cycle to run afoul of them.
While MCEA has made some county-level endorsements, it has postponed its decision on the incumbents (except for Sidney Katz). The teachers are unhappy with recent MCPS budget decisions made by the County Council, especially with the breaking of their collective bargaining agreement two years ago. With Ike Leggett’s recommended budget coming next week, we will learn more about what might happen to MCPS this year and that will affect the union’s thinking. The remaining non-incumbents in the Council At-Large race will be paying rapt attention!
Speaking of the At-Large race, we wrote last April that the sole incumbent running, Hans Riemer, was going to be reelected. We still believe that will happen and so do most of the folks running in his race. But what happens if he is passed over by both the Apple Ballot and the Post? The Apple is skeptical of council incumbents right now. As for the Post, the newspaper endorsed Riemer in the 2014 primary in part because it said challenger Beth Daly was “dead wrong.” But it dumped Riemer for a no-name Republican in the general election, saying he was “a first-termer with modest achievements.” The Post has a lot more options in the 2018 At-Large field than it did last time. Then throw in the facts that there are a lot of good folks in the At-Large race and Riemer’s name will be appearing near the end of a VERY long ballot. If Riemer loses both the Apple and the Post and the hungry field of non-incumbents continues to impress, is he still a lock to win? (Disclosure: your author used to work for Riemer.)
That’s it for now. We’ll have more when the next wave of endorsements comes in!
By Adam Pagnucco.
The Mid-Atlantic region of the Laborers International Union of North America (LIUNA) has announced its endorsements in MoCo county-level races. The union is supporting Marc Elrich (County Executive), Andrew Friedson (Council D1), Ben Shnider (Council D3), Nancy Navarro (Council D4), Tom Hucker (Council D5) and Hans Riemer and Chris Wilhelm (Council At-Large).
LIUNA’s announcement on Twitter.
Elrich and Shnider are starting to roll up progressive endorsements; both are supported by SEIU Local 32BJ and Casa, while Shnider has the Sierra Club and Elrich has the AFL-CIO. Friedson looks like he is building the kind of business-labor coalition that once supported politicians like Doug Duncan. Navarro and Hucker have no opponents – so far.
LIUNA, SEIU and UFCW Local 400 (grocery store workers) are probably the most active unions in the Washington region that include at least some private sector members. LIUNA does not represent any MoCo county employees, but it does represent workers employed by the county’s private trash removal contractors. LIUNA’s main objective is getting the county to use project labor agreements on its construction projects which would mandate union representation of the workers on those jobs. While the union has not been a huge player in MoCo politics in the past, it did spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to get Cathy Pugh elected as Mayor of Baltimore in 2016.
[Disclosure: your author worked as a strategic researcher for LIUNA’s international office in 1994 and 1995.]
By Adam Pagnucco.
The Montgomery County Sierra Club has endorsed Roger Berliner for County Executive as well as several council candidates. With a brand commonly recognized by progressives around the country, the Sierra Club’s support is valued in MoCo. Many expected this endorsement to go to Marc Elrich, so this is a blow to him and a boost for Berliner. It’s also a big pickup for District 3 challenger Ben Shnider, who is starting to get traction against incumbent Sidney Katz. We reprint their press release below.
*****
Sierra Club endorses Berliner for County Executive; and several outstanding candidates for County Council
ROCKVILLE, MD – The Sierra Club, representing 6000 members across Montgomery County, announced today that it is endorsing Roger Berliner for County Executive and several outstanding candidates for the County Council.
Those endorsed for the four At-large Council seats are Evan Glass, Will Jawando, Danielle Meitiv, and Hans Riemer. In addition, Sierra Club is endorsing Ben Shnider for District 3; Nancy Navarro for District 4; and Tom Hucker for District 5.
With all the open seats in this election, 2018 provides an historic opportunity to elect a county government committed to forging significant and measurable solutions to addressing climate change through a variety of new and enhanced programs and policies.
Dave Sears, chair of the Montgomery County group of Sierra Club said, “We are excited about the prospects of our endorsed candidates focusing their skills, experience, and knowledge on making our county a national model for how local governments address the climate emergency facing our planet.”
By Adam Pagnucco.
Now to the swarming Council At-Large race, a fascinating contest with a cast of candidates exceeding the population of several small island nations. In accordance with our prior post on the Executive candidates, let’s review our methodology. First, we calculate total raised and total spent across the entire cycle and not just over the course of one report period. Many candidates, particularly in other races we will discuss, have been campaigning for more than a year and we want to capture that. Second, we separate self-funding from funds raised from others. Self-funding includes money from spouses. Total raised does not include in-kind contributions. Third, for self-financed candidates, we include public matching fund distributions that have been requested but not deposited in raised money and in cash on hand (which we call adjusted cash balance). That gives you a better idea of the true financial position of publicly financed campaigns.
And now, on to the financial presentation. (We hope this graphic can fit on your screen.) Two candidates – Brandy Brooks and Darwin Romero – have not filed reports at this writing.
Delegate Charles Barkley (D-39) is a big winner here with the largest cash on hand in the race. He has used his unique perch as the House’s point man on liquor issues to raise large amounts of money, adding to a war chest he has been accumulating for twenty years. But the last time Barkley had a competitive election, Facebook did not exist and black and white mailers were still in use. This is a big field full of hungry candidates and Barkley needs to do more than raise alcohol money to win.
Council Member Hans Riemer, the only incumbent in the race, continues to excel. He has the highest amount raised ($219,103) and a low burn rate of 11%. Add to that his two terms in office, his experience running countywide, his history of influential endorsements and his campaign skills and he looks like a safe bet to return.
Bill Conway has gone from being Diana Conway’s husband to being perhaps the one non-incumbent candidate that his rivals say is most likely to win. Conway’s total raise ($215,881) is almost equal to Riemer’s and he actually collected more than Riemer from individuals. The difference is that he has spent a lot more than Riemer by employing a campaign manager from the early days of his candidacy. But since that campaign manager is former Raskin field staffer Doug Wallick, that was a good decision. Conway combines a MoCo-targeted message of education, transportation and jobs with a likable personality and a staggering ability to learn quickly. So far, so good.
The Council At-Large candidates pose for their Class of ’18 picture.
Next come the others who have qualified for public financing, most of whom have done so recently. Evan Glass ran strong in District 5 last time, knows the county well and has a lot of fans from his service on more advisory boards and task forces than your author can count. Chris Wilhelm is a progressive teacher who should appeal to his union, the powerhouse MCEA. Will Jawando is a skilled candidate who would be in the House of Delegates now if it weren’t for Jamie Raskin’s 2014 slate. Gabe Albornoz combines several networks – party, Leggett supporters and folks who have known him from his day job at the Recreation Department – and is liked by basically everyone who meets him. A group of nine candidates – Glass, Wilhelm, Jawando, Albornoz, Hoan Dang, Seth Grimes, Shruti Bhatnagar, Mohammed Siddique and Ashwani Jain – are basically clustered together financially. Danielle Meitiv will be right there too because she is close to qualifying for matching funds.
And then there are the rest. Look folks – it’s popular to say that there are more than 30 candidates in this race. But in all truth, the number of viable candidates is at most half that number. To everyone who filed an affidavit or is not close to qualifying for matching funds: it’s not gonna happen for you, OK? You’re the gazelle trying to run with a pack of hungry cheetahs. You need to show some game or don’t show up at candidate forums asking for your ninety seconds of speaking time along with the folks that are busting their rear ends and getting several hundred residents to contribute.
We have a lot of questions about this data, such as: who is giving money? Which candidates are drawing support from specific parts of the county? And why aren’t the female candidates doing better? (Of the top twelve fundraising candidates, only one – Shruti Bhatnagar – is a woman.) All of that analysis will have to wait as we are done for now.
Next: the district council candidates.
By Adam Pagnucco.
Happy New Year, folks! After a relatively quiet period in the fall, December saw a number of applications for public matching funds from county candidates participating in public financing. One of the many positive things about public financing is that when candidates apply for matching funds, they have to file full reports with the State Board of Elections. That gives data junkies like your author – and Seventh State readers! – lots of updated data without waiting for the relatively few regular campaign finance reports in the state’s schedule. The next time all campaign finance reports are due, both from public and traditional accounts, is on January 17.
The candidates below have met the thresholds for matching funds and have applied for those funds from the state.
A few notes. The column titled “Non-Qualifying Contributions and Loans” refers to loans from candidates and their spouses (up to $12,000 is allowed) and out-of-county contributions, which are allowed but not matched. The column titled “Adjusted Cash Balance” includes the cash balance in the last report plus the most recent matching funds distribution requested but not yet received. It is the closest we can approximate the financial position of each campaign at the time they filed their last report. The column titled “Burn Rate” is the percentage of funds raised that has already been spent. Generally speaking, candidates should strive to keep their burn rates low early on to save money for mail season. Mohammad Siddique’s totals are preliminary as there are a few issues in his report that will have to be resolved with the Board of Elections. And District 4 Council Member Nancy Navarro applied for $35,275 in matching funds but cannot receive them unless she gets an opponent.
Below is the number of days each candidate took to qualify for matching funds. Let’s remember that the thresholds are different: 500 in-county contributors with $40,000 for Executive candidates, 250 in-county contributors with $20,000 for at-large council candidates and 125 in-county contributors with $10,000 for district council candidates.
So what does it all mean? Here are a few thoughts.
County Executive Race
Council Members Marc Elrich and George Leventhal, who are using public financing and running for Executive, have been active in county politics for a long time. Elrich first joined the Takoma Park City Council in 1987 and has been on the county ballot in every election since. He has been an elected official for thirty years. Leventhal worked for U.S. Senator Barbara Mikulski and was the Chair of the county Democrats in the 1990s. He played a key role in defeating a group of Republican Delegates in District 39 in the 1998 election. Both of these fellows have built up large networks of supporters over many years and they have done well in public financing, raising similar amounts of money from similar numbers of people.
The difference between them is burn rate. Leventhal is spending much more money than Elrich early, with some of it going to a three-person staff. He had better hope this early spending is worth it because if this trend keeps up, Elrich could have almost twice as much money as Leventhal available for mailers in May and June.
At-Large Council Race
One of Council Member Hans Riemer’s advantages as the only incumbent in this race is the ability to raise money, and he has put it to good use in public financing. Riemer leads in number of contributors and total raised. He has also maintained a low burn rate. This is Riemer’s fourth straight county campaign and he knows what he’s doing at election time. His biggest problem is that his name will be buried near the end of a VERY long ballot.
The five non-incumbents who have qualified for matching funds have raised similar amounts of money so far. As a group, they are not far behind Riemer. The one who stands out here is Bill Conway. Hoan Dang, Evan Glass, Chris Wilhelm and Mohammad Siddique all filed in December while Conway last filed in September. Our bet is that when Conway files next month, he will show four months of additional fundraising that will put him close to Riemer’s total.
That said, the five non-incumbent qualifiers have so far separated themselves from the rest of the field. Gabe Albornoz and Danielle Meitiv have said they have qualified but have not filed for matching funds with the state. No other candidates have claimed to qualify. Raising money in public financing takes a long time and raising a competitive amount (at least $250,000) takes a REALLY long time. Those at-large candidates who do not qualify soon risk appearing non-viable.
Public Matching Funds Will Be Nowhere Close to $11 Million
The county has so far set aside $11 million to cover the cost of public matching funds. That appears to be waaaaaay too much with only $1.4 million so far disbursed. Our guess is that the ultimate total will be less than half what was allocated and will be even lower in the next election cycle with fewer seats open.
Incumbents Have Nothing to Fear From Public Financing
Five council incumbents are using public financing. All five have qualified for matching funds and have done so fairly easily. We will see how the challengers stack up, particularly in the at-large race, but so far the only at-large incumbent (Hans Riemer) is leading. As we predicted last April, public financing is good for incumbents because it allows them to leverage their networks into lots of small individual contributions. State legislators and other County Councils should take heed.
That’s it for now, folks. Come back in a couple weeks when all reports, including those from traditional accounts, are due and we’ll put it all together for you!
By Adam Pagnucco.
This morning, we posted preliminary fundraising totals for candidates in public financing. But one of those reports was wrong because of a problem with the State Board of Elections’ processing software. This post contains updated information.
Shortly after our original post, we received the following communication from Council At-Large candidate Hoan Dang’s campaign.
Hi Adam, this is Jonathon Rowland, campaign manager for Hoan Dang. Thank you for the article this morning. I just want to correct the amount stated. When we filed with the Board of Elections, our report was duplicated because of a glitch in the system giving us double the amount of donations. We have been in contact with the Board of Elections since Monday to resolve this issue. The actual amount of donations is 316.
When your author called Rowland for more details, he said that the Dang campaign found the error first and asked the board to correct it. Board staff acknowledged the mistake and said that they were working with their IT developer to fix it going forward. No public funds were ever distributed before the Dang campaign caught the mistake.
Including information provided by Dang’s campaign today, here is the updated comparison of the five campaigns who have applied for public financing.
Dang is not the leader in public financing. George Leventhal, who is running for Executive, is the overall leader in qualifying contributors and receipts. (Executive candidates get higher match rates than council candidates.) Among the council candidates, incumbent Hans Riemer leads in qualifying contributors and Bill Conway leads in matching funds. This should not discount a strong performance by Dang, whose financial numbers are not terribly different from Riemer’s.
Going forward, we hope the state prevents the kinds of mistakes that affected Dang’s campaign. In the initial glitchy filing, Dang supposedly requested $148,328 in public matching funds. (Again, the IT glitch was not Dang’s fault.) In the updated filing, Dang requested $74,144 in public matching funds. That’s a $74,184 difference. If Dang had not caught the mistake, could that difference have conceivably been paid out? There’s no evidence available on that point. But for the good of public confidence in the county’s public financing system, we hope such a mistake never happens.
On a different issue, we asked what happened to Council Member Marc Elrich’s filing for public matching funds in our original post. Elrich said he had enough contributors to qualify back in June but has not filed yet. When asked about it on Leventhal surrogate Saqib Ali’s Facebook page, Elrich said his delay in filing was related to a payment his campaign had made to the county party, which was subsequently ruled to not be in compliance with public financing requirements. We reprint Elrich’s statement below.
By Adam Pagnucco.
Correction: The numbers for Hoan Dang in this post are inaccurate. For updated numbers on Dang and a response by Marc Elrich, please visit our updated post.
One of the virtues of public campaign financing is the rapid release of financial reports for participating candidates. That’s right, folks – for this group of candidates, there is no need to wait until January to see fundraising numbers. That’s because when they qualify for public matching funds and request them from the state, their financial reports are released almost immediately. This is terrific for all data junkies like your author as well as inquiring minds among the readers!
Below is a summary for the five candidates who have applied to receive matching funds from the state. Bear in mind the following characteristics of the data. First, the number of qualifying contributors means the number of contributors who live in Montgomery County. Non-residents can contribute up to $150 each but the state will not authorize matching funds for them. Second, the individual contribution amounts are the basis on which the state determines how much in public matching funds will be released. Third, the date of cash balance is important because it varies depending on when the applications were sent in. That is unlike the regular reporting dates on which financial positions are summarized at the same time for all candidates. And fourth, for those candidates who have only filed once (which includes everyone except George Leventhal), the cash balances do not include public funds from the state. To estimate the cash positions of those candidates, the cash balance should be added to the public matching funds they requested.
What do we make of this?
1. Let’s start with the obvious: there are a lot of small checks out there! While many contributors are probably donating to more than one of these five campaigns, it’s not a stretch to say that close to a thousand people will have contributed by some point in the near future. It’s hard to make comparisons with the past without exquisitely detailed research to back it up (anyone want to pay us for that?) but our hunch is that this is a larger early donor pool than in prior cycles.
2. The big story here is Council At-Large candidate Hoan Dang. At-Large Council Members George Leventhal (who is running for Executive) and Hans Riemer (the only incumbent running for reelection) have a combined 22 years of representing the whole county. But Dang had more in-county contributors than either one of them! How does that happen? Dang ran for Delegate in District 19 in 2010. He was financially competitive, raising $103,418, but he finished fifth out of six candidates. There was no reason going into this race to believe that Dang would receive more grassroots financial support than Leventhal or Riemer. But so far, he has.
3. Dang is not the only story. Look at first-time candidate Bill Conway, who collected more private funds than Riemer primarily by having a larger average contribution. In most elections, challengers struggle to be financially competitive with incumbents. But the early performances of Conway and Dang relative to Riemer suggest that, at least among publicly-financed candidates, some or all of that gap may be closed. Our hunch is that a group of at-large candidates will all hit the public matching funds cap of $250,000 and therefore have similar budgets heading into mail season. The big question will then become how those totals compare to what candidates in the traditional system, like Marilyn Balcombe, Charlie Barkley, Ashwani Jain and Cherri Branson, will raise.
4. Where is Marc Elrich? The three-term at-large Council Member and Executive candidate announced that he had qualified for matching funds back in June at roughly the same time that Leventhal and Riemer said the same. Riemer followed up by filing for matching funds and Leventhal did it twice. Why hasn’t Elrich filed more than two months after his announcement? One suspects that the bewildering paperwork requirements of public financing are responsible for the delay, but political types are starting to chatter about it.
That’s all for now. Candidates, keep those reports coming in so your favorite blog has more material for the readers!
