Category Archives: Congress

Congress, Prince George's

MD-04 Battle Looms Large

Jolene Ivey, Doug Gansler

Former State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey at the Announcement of
Del. Jolene Ivey’s bid for Lieutenant Governor

Rep. Donna Edwards is announcing her Senate bid today, which means a slew of people are thinking of running for the open Fourth.

Maryland’s Fourth Congressional District, which stretches from Anne Arundel County and around the border of the District of Columbia to take in most of inside the beltway Prince George’s County, is the wealthiest, most highly educated African American majority district in the country. We can expect a lively, crowded primary for this heavily Democratic seat.

The Hon. Rev. Bishop Senator C. Anthony Muse
Perhaps the most flamboyantly colorful member of the Maryland Legislature (Delegate Oaks of Baltimore City is more sartorially extroverted but he lacks Muse’s flair for the dramatic in other regards) brings a large base of south County voters and will have support among the large community of African-American Evangelical voters in the 4th.

How he expands his base is an open question, as his fundraising. He can’t be counted out, though his noted conservative positions, particularly on social issues, will attract a rush of progressive money to any other candidate if it looks like he stands a chance.

Former State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey or Former Del. Jolene Ivey
Glenn Ivey is a very dynamic, well connected former Prince George’s County State’s Attorney with a wealth of downtown DC connections to lean on. It’s rumored that his wife, former Delegate Jolene Ivey is making calls soliciting support for a potential bid on his behalf.

While he was an immensely popular State’s Attorney, he’s in a less strong position than if this primary were happening closer to when he last held office. On the other hand, former Del. Jolene Ivey, his wife, just ran for Lt. Governor, and only continued to build upon on her already positive image. She too would be an excellent candidate. In short, both are terrific political assets to the other.

Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk
Joseline Peña-Melnyk looks potentially like the only Latino candidate in the race as it appears that State Senator Victor Ramirez will take a pass. However, there are fewer than 20,000 registered Latinos in district so this community only provides so large a base. Peña-Melnyk is Dominican, while most of the Latinos in the district are Salvadorian (as is Ramirez). Furthermore, much of District 21, which she represents, is in the Fifth District.

Mary Lehman
Mary Lehman is a term-limited Prince George’s County Councilwoman representing much of the Laurel area. She previously served as Chief of Staff to the last person to hold her current seat–Tom Dernoga. While well liked and respected by many in the community, she lacks to rolodex to raise the millions needed for a competitive campaign.

She would likely be perceived by many as the white candidate, although in a crowded field in a black-majority district that isn’t necessarily a bad place to be. Especially when even though the majority of residents are African American, a slight majority of registered voters are white.

Del. Erek Barron
He is a freshmen Delegate from Prince George’s County with a long resume that includes stints working for Joe Biden and as a high level prosecutor. Barron has deep ties into the legal community in Baltimore and the District of Colombia, as well as on Capitol Hill. He could likely raise more money than all other candidates except either of the Iveys. He has already impressed many in his brief time in the legislature and shouldn’t be underestimated.

Former Lt. Governor Anthony Brown
Mere months ago the idea that today Anthony Brown would be a heavy underdog candidate in a potential comeback for an open congressional seat would be so fundamentally bizarre and incongruous that it belied even a hint of plausibility. But, lo, how the mighty hath fallen

While Brown is currently largely persona non grata throughout Maryland, he is a very talented, fairly charismatic pol  with a sterling resume who did carry his home county very strongly. Far stranger things have happened (See: Sanford, Mark).  Don’t count him out.

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Congress, Roger Berliner

Berliner Not Running for the Eighth

berliner

Roger would have been a strong and interesting candidate. Here is Montgomery County Councilmember Roger Berliner’s email to supporters:

Congressman Van Hollen’s decision to run for the Senate, a decision that I wholeheartedly support, immediately set off widespread speculation as to who would run for his seat in Congress.  I was among those reported to be on the list of possible candidates.  As one of my supporters, I wanted to share with you why, as the Washington Post reported yesterday, I harbor no such ambition.

Not so long ago, at a Council of Governments luncheon, Bruce Katz from the Brookings Institute gave a keynote address in which he posited that the traditional government pyramid, with the federal government on top and local government on the bottom, has now inverted.   He argued that local government is in the strongest position to advance the public interest most directly and effectively.   

My own experience has reinforced the belief that those of us privileged to serve you at the local level have an extraordinary opportunity to improve the quality of life for all of us.  I have served at every level of government – from City Hall, to Capitol Hill, the Executive Branch, state legislature, and county government.   That experience has left not a shred of doubt in my mind that if you want to bring about big changes, take care of the small things that make a real difference in your lives, and literally shape a community, local government is a great place to serve.

And it is certainly where I want to continue to serve you for the next four years.   We have work to do — work to improve transportation, better align growth and infrastructure, provide job skills to our workforce, build a dynamic and innovative government culture, support our non-profit community, do what we can to make our county a “community for a lifetime”, close the achievement gap and build more schools, reinvigorate our local economy ….and the list goes on.

So, I will be busy working on these items and more over the course of the next four years ….not running for Congress.   That’s what you were kind enough to support me doing, and that’s what I love doing!

With warm regards,

Roger

 

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Congress, Valerie Ervin

Valerie Ervin Will Be in for the Eighth

valerieervinglogo

UPDATE/Corrections: See bottom of post.

A reliable source tells me that former Montgomery County Councilmember Valerie Ervin will run for Congress from the Eighth District that is being vacated by Chris Van Hollen who is running for Senate. She will be a top-tier candidate.

Valerie won election to the School Board in 2004 prior to winning the District 5 Council seat in 2006–the seat now held by Tom Hucker.A past President and Vice-President of the County Council, she stepped down in the year before her term ended to take a job with the non-profit Center for Working Families.

Policy

Along with Councilmembers Elrich and Navarro, Ervin worked to raise the minimum wage in Montgomery County just before leaving the Council. Active in the PTA before winning election, she has long been especially interested in education issues, such as universal pre-K and closing the achievement gap.

Many Advantages

While in office, Councilmember Ervin had the knack for being well-liked by both labor and business. Her recent working for the Center for Working Families has only burnished her progressive credentials. In short, she has the potential to appeal to a wide range of voters.

The composition of the electorate works in her favor. The Eighth District is 12% African American but black voters will compose a significantly higher share of primary voters. Democratic primary voters are also disproportionately female, and Ervin is so far the only woman in the race.

School Board members run at large, so she may be the only candidate to have ever been on the ballot throughout the Montgomery County portion of the district. Of course, that would not be the case if Councilmember George Leventhal, her former boss and then colleague, also jumped in the race.

Fundraising

Critical to any effort, however, will be raising money for a successful campaign. The kitty in her Maryland campaign account is essentially empty and I could not find a federal committee listed yet. She has not had to raise the kind of dollars needed for a congressional run in past campaigns.

Nonetheless, I think a disciplined person like Valerie could do it. Backing from EMILY’s list would surely help. The national connections she has made through her activism since leaving the Council may also help her financially. Labor could help provide money as volunteers but there is no way to know which way they’ll jump or if they’ll jump together.

Overlap with Other Candidates

Sen. Jamie Raskin (D-20) now represents many of the same people as Valerie once did on the Council. Assuming he runs, they could compete for many of the same voters geographically in that part of the County, which is rich with Democratic voters. It would probably also aid her campaign if she is the only prominent woman and African-American candidate in the race.

UPDATE/Corrections

I have already received some push back on some of my characterizations in this post. The points made by person who responded are well taken, so I thought it important to add them here or balance or correction even as I leave up the original post. First and foremost, someone reminded me (correctly) that Valerie was not beloved by local labor by the time she left the Council.

MCGEO and the Police union especially hated her. Gino Renne at MCGEO even targeted her with an attack website, though he goes off on a lot of people. The police union showed up once to boo her at a hearing and Valerie said that the union chief started making “threats.” Finally, she also had strong conflicts with the School Board and MCEA was not sorry to see her go.

On the other hand, she still has very cordial relations with SEIU–nationally the second-largest union in America. And, as we have seen, sides can change quickly in these races, so past opposition does not always predict future behavior–or the views of national unions.

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Congress

Delaney Bolts Dems, Harris Defies Tea Party on Key DHS Vote

Rep. John Delaney (D-6) bolted his party and voted in favor of Republican Speaker John Boehner’s proposal for a three-week extension of funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Rep. Andy Harris (R-1) defied the wrath of the tea party, which opposes any bill that does not undo President Obama’s executive orders on immigration, by also supporting the bill.

The failure of Boehner’s bill to pass on a 203-224 vote represented a major defeat for the Speaker. Democrats wanted a clean longer-term funding bill and largely united behind Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s opposition to the three-week extension that would leave the country facing the same dilemma in three weeks.

Boehner could have easily passed a clean bill through the House through a bipartisan coalition but refused to allow a vote because it  violated the “Hastert rule” of only moving forward on legislation that commands a majority within the Republican Caucus. As usual, that isn’t working out so well for him.

Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi’s strategy has been sound for a number of reasons. First, it highlighted the inability of Republicans in Congress to govern due to their rogue wing. Boehner needs Democratic support to make the House work.

On this specific issue, it looks like a total win for Democrats. Boehner got a one-week extension and will either have to pass a clean funding bill for DHS or shut it down–untenable in the face of Republican trumpeting of the importance of security in fighting the War on Terror in the wake of events in Europe.

Rumor has it that Boehner promised a vote on a clean bill to gain the support from either Republicans who favor that option–if only as it is inevitable anyway and opposing it is just killing the GOP in the public eye–or the Democrats. However, Boehner denies it, which just leaves him twisting in the wind.

While Rep. Delaney issued a press release touting his support for a bill providing back pay for DHS employees in the event of a shutdown, he did not issue a similar explanation of his break from the Democrats on this key vote.

Rep. Harris has expressed pride that the House has held to its position that Obama’s immigration executive orders must be undone legislatively in order for DHS funding to pass. But he has not issued a press release explaining why he did not join tea party representatives in opposing any further funding without achieving this goal.

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Congress

MD-02 Tea Leaves

Dutch Ruppersberger is 68 so it’s possible he could choose to retire relatively soon. D2 is a bizarre gerrymander takes in few legislative districts in their entirety. However, it does take in all of District 6, which would position soon-to-be Sen. Johnny Olszewski well for a bid (or perhaps Delegate Eric Bromwell). While the Second does take in bits of Baltimore City, Howard and Anne Arundel Counties – none of them comprise a large enough portion of district to provide an effective base of support. I believe that any successful candidate would have to hail from Baltimore County.

I can’t tell based on a map of the 2nd district whether Senator Ed DeGrange overlaps at all in Northern Anne Arundel County. If he does, it’d likely be worth his taking a shot at this.

The Second District also includes a truly substantial portion of conservative Harford County. I believe there isn’t a large enough base of Democratic primary voters for a viable Harford based candidate to emerge. Former Mike Miller aide Pat Murray would nonetheless have been an interesting candidate if he hadn’t lost the primary in his bid for Delegate in this right-wing bastion.

Delegate Mary-Dulany James–and now Democratic senatorial nominee–might be a viable Harford candidate but I think she’s to far to the right of his D+7 district.

State Secretary of Transportation and former Baltimore County Executive Jim Smith lives in Cockeysville, which is split between MD-01, MD-03 and MD-02. He could likely raise well over $1 million dollars for a bid here. Secretary Smith is in his mid seventies though and I doubt he’d have the appetite.

Former Investment Banker and 2002 Candidate Oz Bengur might decide that the field is weak and take a crack at it.

 

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Congress

Tea Leaves of MD-03

MD-03 is a tricky district. It has a Jackson Pollock quality in terms of it’s lines that really means no elected official has a true base here. It does take in enough prime political real estate that if John Sarbanes (still a young man) runs for his father’s US Senate seat one day – there should be a hard thought Democratic primary.

From Montgomery County

It would not totally surprise me if Steve Silverman were interested in running for Congress, and he does indeed reside in the third district. He raised well over two million dollars in his bid for Montgomery County Exec in 2006. I doubt he could do half that for a Congressional campaign today. However, he’d have at least half a million at his disposal, and possibly seven or eight or nine hundred thousand.

A few terms in Congress would surely be an enticing capstone to Ike Leggett’s career (And he too lives in MD-03). He could put together 1.5 to 2.5 million dollars and would be a strong candidate. Ike would be a real heavy weigh. . . and don’t we always say he’d be a better legislator?

Anne Kaiser might clear a million dollars, but I’d be surprised. I wouldn’t be shocked if she had at least $700,000. I’d be blown away if she didn’t clear half a million. I suspect she’d get substantial help from national LGBT Donors and interests.

Craig Zucker could do $250,000-$500,000. He’d also be dynamic enough to stretch those dollars. Craig might do well with SEIU (He ran there home care program in Maryland at one point) which could help substantially. Zucker is an incredibly hardworking candidate and could make himself competitive for the seat.

Eric Luedtke is a lackluster fundraiser but could see substantial labor PAC money come to fund him. I’d also be a bit perplexed if the NEA didn’t spend hundreds of thousands in independent expenditure to support him, especially if Bill Ferguson were in the race. The dynamic between  Teacher Union Activist Luedtke and Teach for America Alumnus Ferguson on Education Reform, although they are (from what I understand), quite close in the legislature, might very well make this a proxy fight between powerful labor and reformist interests (similar to the 2013 Boston Mayoral run off between Marty Walsh and Dan Connelly).

Anne Arundel County 

Maybe former Annapolis Mayor Josh Cohen. No idea what he could raise. More than 100. . . but who knows how much more? I don’t think he’d be a particularly serious candidate, with little opportunity to expand outside of his base in the City of Annapolis (not big enough to support a real congressional bid). Nice guy, though.

County Councilman Chris Trumbauer might be able to garner substantial backing in IE from the Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters. Which is lucky for him because he couldn’t raise more than low six figures on his own. He’d be well positioned to lock down the Anne Arundel County portions of the district (although that’s not a huge base).

Baltimore County

Bobby Zirkin a dynamic, handsome young trial lawyer who happens to be a strong contender to be the next chairman of the Senate Judicial Proceedings Committee. If that happens, his number could be as high as $1.5 million. If not, $650,000-$1,000,000. Senator Zirkin could likely raise very substantial amounts of money from the incredibly tuned in community of Trial Lawyers that finances so many Democratic Stalwarts.

Dan Morhaim – a Delegate and a Doctor makes a powerful combination. Would clear a million easily. Two million might be a stretch. Shares a heavily Jewish Western Baltimore County district with Zirkin. Despite being one of the stronger fundraisers in the house, he lacks enough pizzazz to be a solid congressional contender in my opinion.

Jon Cardin– Would raise a million easily, but not more than $1.2 or 1.3. Would benefit from confusion with his uncle as well. But, I think that Jon is pretty done after the AG Race. However, the Cardin brand is stronger here than it is statewide.

Baltimore City

Brooke Lierman She could raise a million bucks off her last name, and probably another 300K off of her own network. If Hoyer came in to aid his former Chief of Staff’s daughter you could see another quarter million drop in. She’d be competitive against Anne Kaiser for an Emily’s List endorsement. But as we saw with Heather Mizeur in the 2014 Gubernatorial primary they don’t devote a lot of resources to Democratic Primaries in Deep Blue states.

Bill Ferguson – A handsome, white, young Baltimorean State Senator with real education reform credentials. Can he get buy in from national Ed Reform donors and raise mega millions? I’m not sure. A guy to watch, none the less. With a very, very solid base in the rapidly gentrifying, densely Democratic neighborhoods of South Baltimore. Definitely one to watch.

bIn a primary this crowded, with so many disparate bases of support, I have no clue who might come out on top. I’m not going to pretend that I do.

 

 

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Congress

MD-01 Tea Leaves

CDMDBeing a member of Congress is as good as it gets in the Maryland Republican Party. I believe Andy Harris will hold this seat for a very long time. However, you never know . . . so maybe this seat will one day be vacant. Here’s who I think might be in the mix:

Ocean City Mayor Rick Meehan–While a well-known and popular figure on the Lower Shore, Rick has the disadvantage of never having run for anything except for municipal office. Municipal elections in Maryland tend to be low key, low budget affairs. I’m also not confident in his fundraising potential. However, the Salisbury media market is so cheap that even half a million might be enough to wage a real campaign.

Delegate Mike McDermott–Currently challenging Jim Mathias for the District 38 State Senate seat, I’ve heard him discussed as a potential primary challenger to Andy Harris. I’m sure he’d run in an open seat situation. With more fights under his belt after this cycle than most Maryland pols, he could raise at least 500k (which is a competitive sum in this type of Republican primary).

Before he resigned, I’d have rated self funding multimillionaire State Senator EJ Pipkin as the man to beat. But he’s moved to Texas to get a Master’s in Sports Management. Then there was District 37 Senator Richard Colburn (who had challenged then Congressman Wayne Gilchrist in a past election), but he was defeated in the primary by Delegate Addie Eckhart (who now represents 1/5th of the district) and would be wise to take a shot at this seat if she wants to move up further before moving out.

The most dynamic potential candidate by far is soon to be former Delegate Jeanne Haddaway-Riccio, Harford County Executive David Craig’s running mate in his failed gubernatorial bid. The very smart, photogenic former Minority Whip might very well be the choice of national Republicans and could raise $1 million dollars (a substantial sum in this rural district).

Former Bush Administration official Mary Beth Corrrazzo (who I think will cruise to victory in her Lower Shore subdistrict against former Teacher Judy Davis) would be another incredibly dynamic candidate. I believe she could raise up to $2 million, a crushingly large sum here. She would be an even likelier choice for national Republicans.

Former Harford County Executive David Craig would be a strong candidate. A little dull and more moderate than the Republican Primary electorate, but still a very strong candidate from the suburban Baltimore piece of the district.

On the Democratic side, the bench here is weak and we normally end up with sacrificial lamb candidates given the district’s current configuration. Former Congressman Frank Kratovil might be enticed to run in an open seat but would he really give up a judgeship for what is at best a dicey proposition? The former representative would, however,  turn this into a hotly watched race. Kratovil raised just over $2 million dollars in 2010 and I expect he could hit that mark once again.

Former Republian Congressman Wayne Gilchrist is far too liberal (he endorsed Heather Mizeur, the Delegate from the Democratic People’s Republic of Takoma Park, for Governor in the Democratic Primary for Governor) to win a GOP Primary. He’d be welcomed with open arms by the DCCC and could raise the $1.6 million it takes on average to win a congressional seat.

The dominant rumor in the state for the last few weeks has been that soon to be former Montgomery County Delegate Heather Mizeur intends to challenge Andy Harris from her organic farm in Kent County. This is too ridiculous for my tastes. I think she could raise $1.25 million (what she raised for Governor pre-match). I also think she’d lose by twenty points.

District 38 State Senator Jim Mathias would be a stronger candidate with deeper roots in the district and if the DCCC got involved (which I think they would), could raise well over $1 million dollars. But any Democrat would find it very tough to win this heavily Republican turf.

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Congress

MD-05 Tea Leaves

The undisputed, unbeatable favorite for the MD-06 open seat in 2012 was State Senate Majority Leader Rob Garagiola. That sadly didn’t pan out. State Senator Doug Peters of Bowie holds a similar position of command in a MD-05 open seat situation if and when Steny Hoyer–who could also become the Democratic Leader one day–decides to retire. He represents a truly significant portion of the Fifth District. He is a veteran and very popular within the Annapolis establishment.

I believe, with (now) former Delegate Justin Ross’s departure to the Annapolis Lobbying Corps, that Senator Peters becomes the indomitable frontrunner. Moreover, Doug Peters could raise between $800,000 and $1.5 Million.

Delegate John Bohanon, should he choose to run, could be formidable and cut out Senator Peters’ base of Annapolis support from under him. A comer in the house, I hear Bohanon periodically mentioned for either Appropriations Committee Chair or even Speaker. He could consolidate support in Southern Maryland (Charles, St Mary’s and Calvert). Of course, he has to win reelection to the House first from a tough district.

He also tight with incumbent Steny Hoyer, which would be of obvious, substantial help. Bohanon might raise between $500,000 and $700,000 on his own. If Hoyer rallied his far flung empire of national donors around Bohanon: untold millions (this is a guy that raises close to seven million per cycle).

There will undoubtedly be an African-American candidate of great substance and merit in this race. I’m not sure yet who that would be. My money could be on dynamic twentysomething Delegate Alonzo T. Washington (who shares a district with Peters) or District 9 Prince George’s County Councilman Mel Franklin (who is rumored as a potential successor to County Executive Rushern Baker).

Predicting fundraising totals is difficult. Today, Alonzo might raise $250,000. Tomorrow (when this seat is much more likely to open than today): who knows? Mel Franklin could raise $250,000-$350,000 today. If he’s the next County Exec tomorrow, $1,300,000-$2,6000,000?

If either Mel or Alonzo could sell national K Street interests on the idea that their defeat is a demographic impossibility–and this district could easily elect an African-American candidate–they could raise seven figures.

The election would turn on how how various bases are sliced and diced. Furthermore, even though we only remember the elections where giants are slain and Goliaths toppled, it’s much more common for the front runner to crush his opponents effortlessly.

That being said I would rate this race: Lean Bohanon.

Corrections: Washington and Peters do not share the same district. Alonzo Washington is in 22 (Pinsky is the Senator) and Peters is in 23. Apologies, rookie mistakes on my part.

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Congress

If Donna Edwards Moves Up or On. . .

No one is saying Donna Edwards is going anywhere after working hard to get a firm hold on the Fourth Congressional District but I thought it would be fun to speculate if she left her seat open, say, during a bid for higher office. We’d have an incredibly interesting Democratic Primary on our hands. I believe that the following would likely be tempted to  run:

  • The Hon. Rev. Bishop Senator C. Anthony Muse (District 26).
  • Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker III.
  • Either former Delegate and Lt. Gov. Candidate Jolene Ivey (District 47) or Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey. Since they’re married, they’d have to flip a coin.
  • Anne Arundel County Councilman Jamie Benoit.
  • State Senator Victor Ramirez (District 47).

Each of these candidates bring there own strengths, bases and weaknesses to the race.

Senator Muse has a rock solid base in southern Prince George’s County and would be an incredibly dynamic candidate with an inspiring story of homeless to state house. I think he could raise over $300,000 but I’m not sure how much more. However, that doesn’t go far on a congressional race in the DC media market. And his quixotic challenge to Sen. Ben Cardin went nowhere.

County Executive Baker is very popular in Prince George’s County, which makes up two-thirds of MD-04. He would start out the heavy favorite. It would be interesting to see how he departs from his usual donor base of developers who care much less about the next freshman member of Congress than County Executive. However, I think he could raise if not $2 million dollars, close to it.

Jolene Ivey was an incredibly dynamic and impressive running mate for Doug Gansler. She would be an immensely strong candidate and could raise around $1 million. She has a solid base in the 47th Legislative District, which would be completely fractured if both she and the Senator from that district, Victor Ramirez, ran.

Glenn Ivey was a popular prosecutor and an immense political talent. He also has a thick political rolodex stretching from Capitol Hill to Prince George’s to Annapolis and Baltimore. I think he could raise an even million. His short-lived congressional bid in 2012 may hurt him and his wife’s profile is much higher. Likely neither will have Anthony Brown’s support.

Jamie Benoit is a popular County Councilman, a veteran and the Chief Executive of a rapidly growing business. He was heavily recruited by state Democrats to run for Anne Arundel County Executive but bowed out (and retired from the Council) to focus on his business. He also toyed with the idea of running for Congress in MD-04 in 2012. If he could galvanize his base in Anne Arundel County and appeal to white voters in Northern Prince George’s, he might have an outside  shot. But without self funding he wouldn’t have the resources to get his message out–perhaps a quarter million dollars. If he self funded, he could perhaps get that number up to 500k-750k.

Victor Ramirez is a popular and charismatic State Legislator. He is also the undisputed voice of Prince George’s County’s (and perhaps Maryland’s) rapidly exploding Latino population. If he could mobilize that constituency, he’d have an outside shot at winning a plurality victory in this crowded primary.

Rating: Lean Baker

And who knows who else might run? Maybe an Al Wynn comeback bid? Did I miss anyone? Did I miss you? Email johnga.ems@Gmail.com with tips.

 

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